Terrorism
By Victor Oliveira da Costa
Victor has a bachelor’s degree in International Relations by the Candido Mendes University, Brazil. Is an associate researcher in the Nucleus of Political Philosophy of the Laboratory of Politics, Behavior and Media of the Pontifícia Católica University, São Paulo. Main areas of research include International Political Theory, International Security and Ethics in International Relations.
Iran regime with terrorist groups. [1] The political relationship between U.S and Iraq was also influenced by the dynamics regarding the activities of American government in the region, given the fact that after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Iraq parliament voted for the withdrawal of U.S troops of the country. [2]
The two faces of terrorism in the pandemic world
T
he rise of the Covid-19 pandemic could have been a moment for a decrease in tensions regarding political violence and terrorism. Yet as 2020 would have it, this was not the case. Even with the overall promotion of social restrictions provided by a more active presence of the state, the emergence of violent acts of terror in 2020 was at least significant. This can be attested upon observing the demonstrations around the world, besides the temptations of insurgences and political instabilities caused by terrorists’ threats. Some geopolitical configurations that went through alterations last year are also relevant to understand the risks associated with international security and terrorism threat to 2021. The tensions relating to the escalation of violence around the Middle East can be exemplified by the U.S allegations regarding the assassination of Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, a founder of al Qaeda and second in command. The operation, orchestrated on August 7th, was perpetuated by Israeli agents requested by the United States. Although the historical relationship between Iran and al Qaeda is marked by conflict, the terrorist leader was living in Iran since 2003. However, the information was denied by the Iranian authorities, who claimed that Washington and Tel Aviv are responsible for trying to link the
24 | KCL Geopolitical Risk Forecast Report 2021
The withdrawal of U.S forces not only in Iraq, but also in Afghanistan and Somalia may represent a fertile soil to the manifestation of traditional jihadist threat in classical conflict zones, something that would increase political violence and could lead to the reestablishment of a bigger conflict between terrorist groups and organizations in the Middle East. As Colin P. Clarke described, “with the United States drawing down forces in the Middle East, South Asia, and throughout Africa, al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and their respective affiliates could make a renewed push to capture new territory and destabilize countries and regions”. [3] In Somalia, the withdrawal of U.S troops has been complete in a moment of approximated presidential elections. At the same time, the concerns of the government and Somalia’s civil society about the al-Shabab terrorist attacks remain a priority. [4] The same kind of risk can be projected regarding the drop out of American forces from Afghanistan and Iraq. In the first scenario, the process is the result of a peace agreement between the United States and Taliban who has committed to maintain a counterterrorist activity
