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On our agenda

• March 4 to March 11: “Two sessions” in China

The “two sessions” – the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – mark the official start of President Xi Jinping’s third term in office. High-ranking officeholders in the government and the Chinese Communist Party will change, and Xi’s position of power is likely to be strengthened. Now that China has declared victory in the battle against COVID-19, all efforts will be focused on kick-starting the country’s economy. New economic stimulus programs are likely to be announced.

• March 10: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision

Haruhiko Kuroda, the engineer of “yield-curve controls”, is unlikely to spring any surprises at his last meeting as the governor of the Bank of Japan. He likely will leave it up to his successor, Kazuo Ueda, to wean Japan off ultra-monetary accom modation. Ueda’s first policy meeting as the head of the BoJ is scheduled for April 27–28.

• March 10: US labor market data

In the wake of surprisingly robust January data showing more than 500,000 new jobs created and the lowest unemployment rate in 54 years (3.4%), the financial markets are excitedly awaiting the February numbers. Another round of upbeat data would make a recession in the near term (even) less probable, though so would a speedy end to rate hikes.

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