Glen Mar Park 2010 Wrapup by Josette Skilling

Josette JosetteSkilling’ Skilling’ s sGlen Wood Mar Acres ParkMarket MarketReport Report- -Page Page1 1

Number of homes sold last year was up 50% from 2009. By itself as a stat it may not say much but as part of a trend it’s important to watch in the spring. What we will be watching for is buyer demand in the spring. If interest rates remain low and the inventory remains tight, prices may start to rise. If you compare this to the historical trends found on page 3, the number of homes sold in 2010 is higher than last year but still only about half of what has been selling each year over the last decade.

Average days on market are lower this year than last by 35%. Every day you are on market means you are cleaning Fido’s hair off the couch, being interrupted by showings and worrying about whether or not you’ll be able to get to your next goal so decreases in market time matter. The number is skewed by one house that took over a year to sell. If that house is taken out of the averages, every house sold very quickly—many in just days. But a home that needed work and was not priced well for the condition took 374 days to sell. The average without this home is 17 days.

List to sales price ratio is the amount of the asking price that sellers received. Sellers keeping more of what they asked for would seem a bright spot in this report and attests to the lack of inventory as well as the sensible pricing. I continue to caution buyers to be careful not to apply these averages across the board and to look carefully at the makeup of the data. Many well priced homes across the Bethesda zip codes went in multiples for full price. This number was also lowered by one house. Most homes went for asking or very close to it.

Median price

Single Family Homes Sold 2009 vs 2010

50%

2010

2009

Average Days on Market 2009 vs 2010

-22%

47 60 0 50 100

List Price to Sales Price Ratio 2009 vs 2010

97% 97% 97%

97%

98%

Median Price 2009 vs 2010

is down 9% from last year to this year. Median is a better overall metric to gauge price change than average since the homes are not similar. Median is the point at which half are more expensive and half are less. If you look at the annual data on page 3 you can see that the high water mark for price was 2008 at $802,500. There were more large teardowns that year, which pulled up the median vs this year when there were none that sold.

-9%

$725,000 $792,500

$400,000 $500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Keller Williams Capital Properties · 801 D St, NE · Washington, DC 20002 C: 301.385-9213 P: 202.243.7700 E: J.Skilling@verizon.net www.bethesdabuzz.com If your home is currently listed for sale with another broker, this is not intended as a solicitation of that listing Source: MRIS Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed

$800,000

Josette Skilling’s Glen Mar Park Market Report - Page 2 Condition and price rule. I sold many homes last year with multiple offers because we took the time to get them in terrific shape, photographed them professionally and made them easy to see or show. Price was exactly right to attract buyers. The common theme among those homes below that sold quickly and for most of what they were asking is excellent condition for their price and full marketing so that buyers could see the home and create market value. Those that failed to sell had price and/or condition issues. Had they been priced correctly for their condition they would have sold!

Glen Mar Park Neighborhood Sales for 2010 Address 5209 SANGAMORE RD 5303 CARLTON LANE 5812 MASSACHUSETTS AVE 5116 LAWTON DR 5211 NAHANT ST 5711 NAMAKAGAN RD 5907 NAMAKAGAN RD 5200 BELVOIR DR 5810 AUGUSTA LN 5306 MARLYN DR 5207 BELVOIR DR 5803 AUGUSTA LN

Orig. Price Price at Sale Sold Price List/Sale Subsidy DOM Style $649,000 $649,000 $635,000 98% $0 34 Rambler $645,000 $645,000 $645,000 100% $0 0 $779,000 $649,900 $650,000 83% $19,500 374 Colonial $665,000 $665,000 $670,000 101% $10,000 38 Rambler $775,000 $725,000 $692,500 89% $0 38 Colonial $724,900 $724,900 $725,000 100% $0 4 Rambler $735,000 $735,000 $725,000 99% $1,428 6 Colonial $730,000 $730,000 $730,000 100% $2,500 6 Rambler $745,000 $745,000 $747,000 100% $0 9 Colonial $765,000 $765,000 $755,000 99% $0 9 Colonial $779,000 $779,000 $779,000 100% $0 7 Colonial $824,900 $809,000 $805,000 98% $300 35 Colonial

2010 Sales Breakdown: •

•

5211 Nahant - the owners had tried to sell this as a by owner sale priced at $775,000. Condition was poor. Two price reductions took them to $725,000 and then a sale finally at $692,500. 5116 Lawton - Bought for $650,000 in 2006 and resold this year for $660,000. No improvements since the last sale and in need of updating. Shows how difficult it is to buy at a height with no improvements made. 5812 Mass Ave - tough house to sell since it’s on the busy street and is quite small. Originally priced at $779,000 and in poor shape, there were successive price drops to get this house sold. One of the largest seller subsidies we’ve seen around here paid the buyer’s closing costs on this house—bringing it to an effective sales price of $630,000. For comp purposes we need to use the lower number since the appraiser will. 5209 Sangamore - cute 2 bedroom with an additional space in the

basement that sold relatively well considering it’s a busy street and a small house. Very well presented and priced at $649,000 it was within the range that buyers were able to come in and see the possibilities. Someone now has a great house! With the rest of the houses you can see that the owners got asking price in a short period of time. Or they got very close to asking price, especially those with renovated spaces or additions. Buyers are looking for done in many cases. They don’t have the time or the additional funds to redo kitchens, bathrooms or do deferred maintenance. When we look at the details of each sale, there is a different picture that emerges of the actual price a seller got from the original price to the eventual sales price. Buyers are very adept at pricing once they get focused on an area and with few exceptions they are simply unwilling to pay over market value.

BR FB HB 2 2 0 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3

4 2 1 2 1 2 4 3 3 3

0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1

List Date Contract Date Close Date 2/18/2010 4/7/2010 6/4/2010 7/2/2010 6/23/2009 7/3/2010 7/29/2010 6/12/2010 7/17/2010 8/20/2010 5/3/2010 6/15/2010 7/21/2010 4/7/2010 4/11/2010 6/28/2010 7/9/2010 7/15/2010 8/23/2010 10/2/2010 10/2/2010 11/12/2010 2/15/2010 2/23/2010 4/20/2010 1/22/2010 1/31/2010 3/12/2010 4/22/2010 4/27/2010 5/27/2010 9/20/2010 10/26/2010 12/30/2010

When you see the reduction in sales prices from 2005 to 2010, you can understand buyers’ hesitation to extend the same fate to themselves and their caution in price. Current Market Activity: Active: • 5220 Marlyn $1,499,000 listed as a short sale • 6003 Madawaska $639,000 Under Contract: • Nothing under contract Withdrawn/Expired: • Nothing currently

“I am working with active buyers in the market who are looking for good homes, priced to sell”

Josette Skilling’s Glen Mar Park Market Report - Page 3 Want a cool monthly snapshot of the market?

Total Homes Sold Annually 2000-2010

Go to: http://bethesdabuzz.com/whats-your-home-worth/

Historical data on this page shows the trending over the years for all the four metrics we follow.

20 15

19 12

12 8

When we see the trends in bar charts like this, it’s easy to associate certain time frames together and understand what happens in a particular kind of market. I’ve found it’s hard for some sellers to understand that their home is not worth what their neighbor got in a particular time frame until they see the data laid out in this fashion.

60 47

44 27

99% 99%

103% 102% 101% 100% 97% 97%

97% 96%

114%

$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Median Price $339,000$417,500$443,500 $626,750 $658,750 $737,500 $711,500$790,000 $802,500 $792,500 $725,000 Appreciation

23%

41%

12%

-4%

11%

-1%

-9%

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2000

92%

2001

104% 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86%

$900,000

2002

2010

List Price to Sale Price Ratio Annually 2000-2010

A lot of national discussion is centered about the upcoming foreclosure inventory that banks have held back, and while this area is a bit more protected from the extreme variations in value we’ve seen in other parts of the county, it has unfortunately not been immune to financial distress. Each surrounding community has had it share of distress, but we are lucky as a community that the impact can be absorbed

2001

2009

2008

2007

2005

2004

2003

2006

2002

2000

2001

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Highwater mark on price was 2008 after an uneven trend in pricing since 2005. For homes that were purchased in this time frame unless they were substantially improved it becomes very difficult for that seller to recoup their investment in the home. The flip side is that there is substantial appreciation for long time homeowners, able to clearly assess the market data and price their homes accordingly.

2000

2010

Days on Market Annually 2000-2010

One of the results of sellers not realizing their price can’t be sustained in a changed market is the extended days on market. While many of the homes may sell in a short period of time those holdouts can certainly be seen in the 2008-2009 days on market.

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

Josette osetteSkilling’ Skilling’s s Glen Springfield Mar Park Market Market Report—Page Report - Page 44 easily. Many other parts of the county have not fared quite so well. Dealing with these transactions is difficult emotionally for all involved but we can successfully help transition people from difficult situations. Since no homes or neighborhoods exist in a vacuum, it’s important to understand the wider trends of the zip code and county. There is a modest 3% median gain in zip code 20816 though many neighborhoods are showing losses over last year. With a fragile economy still trying to find its footing, it’s vital that sellers be very aware of the trends so they achieve their goal of a sale. No one wants to just be on the market - they want to be IN the market! To see this data monthly, you can always view the extensive market reports on my website. I track the Bethesda zip codes as well as maintain a current look at Glen Mar Park there with enough geeky charts for those who love data… All current sales are always listed there. • •

http://goo.gl/wHt0s - This Subdivision (click on Market Tabs) http://goo.gl/3Qpsd - Zip Code 20816

20816 Neighborhood Statistics for 2010 Subdivision AU Park Beacon Hill Brookdale Brookmont Crestview Fairway Hills Fort Sumner Glen Cove Glen Echo Heights Glen Mar Park Greenacres High Point Mass Ave Hills Spring Hill Springfield Sumner Tulip Hill Westgate Westhaven Westmoreland Hills Westwood Wood Acres Yorktown Village 2010 Zip code 20816 2009 Zip code 20816 % Change Yr to Yr

2010 # of Sales 2 2 5 6 17 5 5 4 26 12 6 1 3 2 11 19 3 7 n/a 25 2 19 3 186 173

2010 DOM 68 9 54 74 37 10 102 87 42 47 31 8 148 19 47 36 28 24 n/a 78 30 33 35 48 74

2010 List/Sale Ratio 98% 99% 101% 96% 98% 101% 90% 93% 91% 97% 97% 109% 97% 98% 96% 95% 92% 98% n/a 93% 97% 98% 97% 95% 93%

2010 Med Sold Price $767,500 $1,349,500 $825,000 $720,750 $629,000 $650,000 $995,000 $914,500 $847,275 $725,000 $609,500 $870,500 $1,175,000 $1,540,000 $864,500 $1,127,000 $1,025,000 $725,000 n/a $1,165,000 $902,500 $840,000 $1,100,000 $865,750 $839,000

-35%

2009 Med Sold Price % Change $698,500 10% $1,249,000 8% $820,000 1% $660,000 9% $530,000 19% $717,500 -9% $1,100,000 -10% $1,545,000 -41% $795,000 7% $792,500 -9% $685,000 -11% $820,000 6% $1,038,500 13% n/a n/a $864,500 0% $1,150,000 -2% $940,000 9% $801,000 -9% $865,000 n/a $1,175,000 -1% $845,000 7% $814,500 3% n/a n/a

Josette Skilling’s Glen Mar Park Market Report - Page 5 Marketing homes today takes more than just a sign in the yard or putting the home in the MLS. Statistics say that most every buyer starts their search for homes on the Internet and they dismiss those homes that don’t have great pictures, look dated or are in need of maintenance, and are overpriced for their condition. Buyers find me on the Internet because they are searching for homes in areas I focus on extensively. And if they can find me, they can find your home for sale as well! I’d love to help you be the next successful sale in your neighborhood. I am proud to begin my affiliation with Keller Williams, which is one of the largest national real estate companies in the country and the fastest growing in the DC area. Built by agents for agents, it allows me to focus on growing my business to serve the needs of my clients. Their educational material for agents is unparalleled, which coupled with my own extensive hours of education required to attain the level of broker will help me to stay on top of any challenge ahead. And our presence in the area will be expanding with a Bethesda office sometime this year. I’m excited for the possibilities ahead and look forward to serving your real estate needs.

Solving Your Real Estate Puzzle

Josette Skilling Associate Broker

301-385-9213

801 D Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 Cell: 301-385-9213 Office: 202-243-7700 J.Skilling@verizon.net www.bethesdabuzz.com

If your home is currently listed for sale with another broker, this is not intended as a solicitation of that listing Source: MRIS Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed