Incredible Adventures / Spaceport Associates Space Tourism Survey
THE ADVENTURERS’ SURVEY Full Report
November 2006 D.Webber and J. Reifert
Analysis Conducted by Spaceport Associates, 5909 Rolston Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 http://www.SpaceportAssociates.com
The Adventurers’ Survey
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Table of Contents
Page
1. Introduction
5
2. The Adventurers
6
3. Demand for Space Tourism
12
4. Choice of Spaceship Design
21
5. Orbital Spaceflight Options - Spacewalking (EVA) - Hotels 6. Training
23 24 25 26
7. Spaceports
29
8. Corporate Tourists
30
9. Lotteries
32
10. Gender Variations
33
11. Regional Variations
34
12. Age Variations
36
13. Wealth Variations
38
14. Comparison with the Futron/Zogby Survey
40
15. Conclusions
43
16. References
47 APPENDICES
A. B. C. D.
Methodology Survey Questionnaire Descriptions of Experiences Comments of Respondents
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Listing of Figures Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 Fig 4 Fig 5 Fig 6 Fig 7 Fig 8 Fig 9 Fig 10A Fig 10B Fig 10C Fig 10D Fig 10E Fig 10F Fig 11A Fig 11B Fig 11C Fig 11D Fig 11E Fig 11F Fig 12 Fig 13 Fig 14 Fig 15 Fig 16 Fig 17 Fig 18 Fig 19 Fig 20 Fig 21
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Gender Makeup of Respondents Origins of Respondents Age Distribution of Respondents Height of Respondents Weight of Respondents Wealth of Respondents Adventure Experience Acceptable Levels of Risk for Trip Gross Market Opportunity High Altitude Jet Fair Pricing Zero-G Flight Fair Pricing Space Training Fair Pricing Suborbital Flight Fair Pricing Orbital Flight Fair Pricing Moon Trip Fair Pricing Realizable High Altitude Jet Realizable Zero-G Flight Realizable Space Training Realizable Suborbital Flights Realizable Orbital Space Flights Realizable Moon Trips When do you Want to Fly? Take-Off Preferences Preferred Mode of Landing Preferred Orbital Flight Duration Max Premium for an EVA Premium for Orbital Hotel Stay Max Available Time for Training – Suborbital Max Time for Training – Orbital Suborbital Spaceflight Training Does the Spaceport Matter?
7 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Cont’d
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Table of Figures (Cont’d)
Fig 22 Fig 23 Fig 24 Fig 25 Fig 26A Fig 26B Fig 27 Fig 28 Fig 29A Fig 29B Fig 29C Fig 30A Fig 30B Fig 30C Fig 31
Page
Spaceflight as a Prize? Would you Offer as a Corporate Prize? A Lottery Ticket to Space? Gender Impact Regional Impact – Asia Regional Impact – Australia/NZ Age Impact Wealth Impact Comparison with Futron/Zogby (Realiz, Sub) Comparison with Futron/Zogby (Realiz, Orb) Tabulation of Comparison with Futron/Zogby Stability of Responses – Suborbital Stability of Responses – Orbital Stability of Responses – Round the Moon Respondent Comments Summary
31 31 32 33 34 36 37 39 41 41 42 50 50 50 64
© Spaceport Associates, All Rights Reserved. This publication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, copied, photocopied, translated or converted to any electronic format, without prior written consent from Spaceport Associates.
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1. Introduction It was in October 2002 when the most comprehensive, statistically valid, and realistically-based survey of space tourism demand to date was issued as the findings of the report known as the Futron/Zogby study (Ref 1). The findings formed part of the testimony to the President’s Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry (Ref 2) and enabled “public space travel” to become part of that Commission’s recommendations. Since that time four years of developments have taken place, and the intervening period has been perhaps the most dramatic and significant, at least so far as the general public is concerned, with regard to awareness and comprehension of space tourism in its various forms. This of course has been due to such events as the X-Prize and the SpaceShipOne flights during 2004, The X-Prize Cup competitions conducted each year, and the launch of Bigelow’s space hotel precursor prototype Genesis 1 this year. The government, via Congress and the FAA, has played its part in creating a regulatory framework to enable the new industry to emerge. Also during this period, new spaceports have been emerging in a number of US states, and elsewhere around the globe, with an explicitly stated purpose of supporting space tourism activities. Major new players, like Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Galactic, have declared their intention of providing space tourism to large numbers of private citizens. It seems therefore that there may well have been some changes in public perception of, and/or willingness to take, space adventures since the earlier survey was conducted. That is one reason why the present survey has been undertaken. Another reason for the new work is that, because the industry has moved on during the intervening four years, another set of questions has emerged that would benefit from a public viewpoint. Many of these questions were not asked in the original survey. In some ways these new questions are of a more detailed nature than those reported on in the Futron/Zogby study. They have been asked in order to provide the industry with some feedback on public perceptions of key elements of space tourism packages soon to be marketed. This should assist hardware manufacturers, service providers and space tourism travel agents to refine their offerings to be more in line with customer preferences and expectations. Reference 7 provides a framework for developing the questionnaire.
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An important caveat must be declared, however, at the outset. The Futron/Zogby study derived its rigor and credibility from a very expensive process involving one-to-one interviews with 450 millionaires, the number being designed statistically to provide results within a +/- 5% variation of the millionaire population in general. This current survey makes no such claims to statistical validity. It has been performed specifically to provide a biased sample – those interviewed are a priori known to be interested in adventurous vacations. That is why the findings are being called The Adventurers’ Survey (but note that the sample size of 998 is large enough to ensure that the results are representative of the views of all the Adventurers who access the web site –see Appendix A). This means that the collected opinions ( on such aspects as design features of the tourist spacecraft) represent the views of folks who already understand the nature of adventure vacations, and which therefore in some respects have special importance to those designing the future space tourism experiences. The detailed methodology and questionnaires used for the Adventurers’ Survey is provided as Appendices A, B and C of this report. However, at this point it is sufficient to note that the responses were obtained by use of web survey techniques, during the months of August and September in 2006, targeting the client list of the Incredible Adventures agency. In addition, Appendix D provides some flavor by presenting the comments of respondents, submitted as they completed the questionnaire. It should also be noted that, while rigor was built into the Futron/Zogby survey by asking the same question several times in different ways, this was not done in the case of this short survey. The analysis therefore of necessity assumes that the respondents have provided honest answers to the questions. No obvious violation of that trust has nevertheless been discerned through the subsequent analysis.
2. The Adventurers So, who are these folks who make regular use of the Incredible Adventures web site, and who agreed to provide the information requested in The Adventurers’ Survey? It has already been noted that they do not fit into any regular demographic, yet they have in common an interest in exciting adventure vacations. The survey instrument asked specific questions to help us understand the characteristics of those providing the responses to the survey. This is what we learned.
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2.1 Survey Population The questionnaire went live at the start of August 2006, and during the next 6 weeks, a total of 998 completed responses were obtained. Fig 1(derived from response to Q 24 of the survey) shows how they were distributed. With only 9% of the responses being female, there is an obvious male bias in this sample. Most of the analysis uses the combined results, but a check for gender-based differences in the responses, which prove to be rather significant, is included in Section 10. For comparison, the corresponding demographic in the Futron/Zogby study was a 70/30 split, where a special effort had been made in the sampling to mirror the known gender makeup of the millionaire population as a whole.
FIG 1 GENDER MAKEUP OF RESPONDENTS
100% 80% 60%
91%
40% 20%
9%
0% male
f emale
2.2 Sample Characteristics What else could be determined about the survey respondents? Fig 2 (derived from response to Q 21 of the survey) provides an insight into where they come from. We should compare this breakdown to what we know about the distribution of wealthy populations around the world. 63% of this sample is from the US, whereas a truly normalized distribution of wealthy individuals would be split rather equally between US, Europe and Asia. The majority of the analysis is based on the combined responses, although regional differences in responses to the survey are addressed in Section 11 of this report, where it will be seen that the differences can be significant. Note that the survey questionnaire, although in English, made special provisions for respondents from different countries, by providing conversion tables for height, weight and currencies, where required.
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FIG 2 ORIGINS OF RESPONDENTS 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
63%
20% 17%
10% 6%
5%
0% US
Ca/Mex
Eur
Asia
2% So Amer
4%
1% Afr
Aust/NZ
Fig 3 (derived from response to Q22 of the survey) indicates the age breakdown of the respondents, and we note that 78% of respondents are aged between 21 and 60, with only 6% being above 60. In the case of the Futron/Zogby survey, 22% of the (millionaire) respondents were above age 65, so this less-wealthy and more adventurous sample population tends to a lower age distribution. Section 12 addresses the implications of this distribution. FIG 3 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS 50% 40% 30% 48% 20% 30% 10%
16% 5%
0% Under 21
22-39
40-59
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Fig 4 and Fig 5 (derived from response to Q 23 of the survey) give some useful information about the size of potential space tourists, and this could be useful for spacecraft designers. We note that as many as 36% are greater than 6 feet in height, which may be a problem for some proposed spacecraft internal layouts, especially when associated with 28% who weigh over 200 lbs. Adventurers, it would seem, tend to be rather large and bulky individuals.
FIG 4 HEIGHT OF RESPONDENTS
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 64% 0.3 0.2
31%
0.1 5% 0 Under 6ft
6ft-6ft 4in
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FIG 5 WEIGHT OF RESPONDENTS 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
68%
0.3 0.2 22%
0.1
6%
5% 0 Under 100lbs
100-200lbs 200-250lbs Over 250 lbs
The next piece of information was requested in order to make some crosscorrelations with the Futron/Zogby work. We found (see Fig 6 – derived from response to Q 25 of the survey) that only 14% of the respondents belonged in the wealth category used for the earlier survey, i.e. they had an income of at least $250,000 and/or a net worth of at least $1M. A separate analysis has been carried out on this subset in Section 13 to see if the level of wealth affects the response pattern, and it is shown that indeed it does for some key questions. FIG 6 WEALTH DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
86%
0.3 0.2 0.1 0
14% $250K income and/or $1M net worth
Less income and/or assets
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2.3 Acceptance of Risk We already knew that the respondents would not all fit into the “millionaire” category that had been used in Futron/Zogby, but we expected to find an interesting attitude to risk in the respondents to The Adventurers’ Survey. This is what we found. Fig 7 (derived from response to Q26 of the survey) shows that the respondents had indeed already taken part in some risky leisure activities. We note that 7% had already obtained Zero-g flight experience, and as many as 30% had done mountain climbing. Many of the respondents had done more than one of the adventures. We note, furthermore, that Appendix D-3 contains a list of multiple other adventures previously undertaken by the respondents to the survey. These people know about risk. FIG 7 ADVENTURE EXPERIENCE 0.3 0.25 0.2 30%
0.15 0.1
28%
22% 12%
0.05
7%
0 Skydiving
Fighter Jet Flight
Zero-g Flight
Mountain Climbing
Car Racing
Fig 8 (derived from the response to Q4 of the survey) gives the feedback about the degree of risk that these respondents would find acceptable for a space adventure. They were asked “How safe would a spaceflight need to be before you’d take one?” This was a question about perception of risk. No data was provided to the respondents about how risky the offered comparative activities really are before they gave their responses, and the offered comparisons were provided in random order. We learn that for most of these Adventurer respondents, they are prepared to undertake the experience, provided it is only as safe as a Space Shuttle flight, or a jet fighter flight. 19% would prefer to wait, however, until it is perceived to be as safe as an airliner flight.
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FIG 8 ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK FOR TRIP 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15
28%
25% 19%
0.1
14%
10%
0.05 0 Shuttle
Jet Fighter
Mountains
Airliner
Hang gliding or Skydiving
3. Demand for Space Tourism Now that we have established who our respondents are, we can determine what they think about the prospects for taking an adventure into space. We approached this question in a number of discreet steps, so that we could get an insight into the gross market opportunity, before such factors as price would enter into the equation.
3.1 Size of Market It was decided to expand the scope of the survey from the basic suborbital and orbital space tourism offerings considered under Futron/Zogby. So the respondents were asked about several kinds of private spaceflight opportunities, and their level of interest, before pricing considerations were introduced. The result is shown in Fig 9 (derived from response to Q1 of the survey). This gives us an indication of the size of the gross market for space tourism, at least among this group of Adventurers. We note that, in this “zero cost” scenario, about a third of the members of the group want to do the “entry level” public space activities (i.e. either: high-altitude jet, Zero-g flight, spaceflight training, or even a suborbital experience).
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But this number increases to 47% for orbital and 59% for going the round-theMoon. In explanation, one respondent indicated “If you are going to all the effort and time to get trained, you might as well go for gold!”
FIG 9 GROSS MARKET OPPORTUNITY 0.6 0.5 0.4 59%
0.3 47% 0.2
34%
28%
27%
30%
0.1 0 High Zero-g Space SubAltitude Flight Training orbital Jet
Orbital
Round the Moon
Having established this general level of interest, we explored what the respondents would consider to be fair prices for these ventures, and the results are shown in Fig 10 (A thru F), (derived from response to Q2 of the survey). These findings are rather hopeful for some parts of the industry, because in these cases they show a general agreement with the currently accepted pricing policies, with some upside scope for early adopter premium customers in some cases. However, it is not so encouraging to report that this group (having been given no a priori price indicator in the survey materials) indicate a view that the “fair price” for suborbital flights should be $50K or below. They also indicate a perception that a “fair price” for an orbital flight would be $1M or below, while Moon trip pricing can be anywhere between $1M and $100M. Of course, there is no guarantee that a business plan could produce a cost structure that would support the price levels indicated. These are merely customer perceptions.
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FIG 10A HIGH ALT JET FAIR PRICING
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
70%
0.3 0.2 17%
0.1
7%
7%
0 $10K
$20K
$30K
$50K
FIG 10B ZERO-G FLIGHT FAIR PRICING
0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25
49%
0.2 29%
0.15 0.1
15% 7%
0.05 0 $2K
$3.5K
$5K
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FIG 10C SPACE TRAINING FAIR PRICING
0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 42% 0.2 0.15
26% 19%
0.1
13%
0.05 0 $5K
$10K
$15K
$50K
FIG 10D SUBORBITAL FLIGHT FAIR PRICING
0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15
24%
27%
25%
0.1
16% 9%
0.05 0 $10K
$25K
$50K
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$200K
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FIG 10E ORBITAL FLIGHT FAIR PRICING
0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2
39% 30%
0.15 0.1
14%
0.05
10%
8%
0 $500K
$1M
$5M
$10M
$20M
FIG 10F MOON TRIP FAIR PRICING 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15
30% 25%
0.1
18% 15% 12%
0.05 0 $1M
$10M
$20M
$50M
$100M
The next related question that was asked of the respondents was aimed at determining the realizable market for this group of Adventurers (remembering that only 14% of them are as wealthy as the respondents to the Futron/Zogby survey). Respondents were asked “Which of the following adventures do you see yourself actually doing some day… (and) select the amount you both could and would pay”.
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The findings are given in Fig 11 (A thru E) (derived from responses to Q 3 of the survey). We note that 38% of the respondents report positively on the highaltitude jet experience at $20K, 33% want to do the Zero-g experience at $2K, and that 25% indicate an interest in space training at $5K. For the suborbital flights, only 7% of this group say they will undertake flights at the current prices of $100K and above, whereas 36% would opt at prices around $25K and down to $10K. The message for orbital operations is that only 4% of these respondents would go at current price levels of $10M to $20M, but as prices are reduced, there is a distinct “kink” in the curve at price levels below $1M, with 25% agreeing to proceed if prices could reach $500K. Regarding the Moon flights, the “kink” occurs below $10M, with almost 20% being interested at $1M.
FIG 11A REALIZABLE HIGH ALT JET 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 38%
0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
1%
3%
$30K
$50K
0 $10K
$20K
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FIG 11B REALIZABLE ZERO-G FLIGHT 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2
33%
0.15 0.1 10%
0.05
5%
3%
0 $2K
$3.5K
$5K
$6.5K
FIG 11C REALIZABLE SPACE TRAINING 0.25 0.2 0.15 25% 0.1 0.05
8%
5%
4%
$15K
$50K
0 $5K
$10K
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FIG 11D REALIZABLE SUBORBITAL FLIGHTS 0.25 0.2 0.15 24% 0.1 12% 0.05
6%
4%
3%
$100K
$200K
0 $10K
$25K
$50K
FIG 11E REALIZABLE ORBITAL SPACE FLIGHTS 0.25 0.2 0.15 25% 0.1 0.05
8% 3%
2%
2%
$10M
$20M
0 $500K
$1M
$5M
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FIG 11F REALIZABLE MOON TRIPS 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0
19%
7% 4% $1M
$10M
$20M
4%
2% $50M
$100M
3.2 Growth Curve The next major forecasting variable that needs some calibration is the rate at which the industry is expected to “take off”. A discussion of this is included in Ref 3 (Table 1). A question was therefore asked to give some insight into this issue. Respondents were asked “Let’s assume you’re planning to buy a spaceflight. When would you want to go?” The findings are presented in Fig 12 (derived from response to Q5 of the survey). We note from this response that only 14% of the respondents truly care about pioneering, and 47% will wait for the price levels to drop (to the levels indicated in the Fig 11 charts). FIG 12 WHEN DO YOU WANT TO FLY? 0.5 0.4 0.3 47% 0.2 0.1
23% 15%
14%
17%
0 Pay Extra for Early
Early but Wait for not extra lower price
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4. Choice of Spaceship Design There are many constraints imposed on spacecraft designers in determining the main elements of the architectures of their chosen space tourism vehicle. After all, we are talking about rocket science, and there have to be compromises in order to make the trip possible at all. Spacecraft for human spaceflight must traverse a series of punishing engineering environments associated with the extremely high speeds needed. A discussion of architectures is included in Ref 6. One consequence of this is that the earliest tourist vehicles will probably not be ideal (just consider the designs of the earliest passenger aircraft compared with those of today. In fact the first aircraft passengers sat out on the wing alongside Wilbur or Orville Wright, the pilot!). Nevertheless, it is surely helpful to at least know what the future passengers would prefer, if possible, for the main design elements of their chosen ride. To obtain this input, the questions were posed in two parts: methods of take-off, followed by methods of landing.
4.1 Going Up In order for the respondents to make an informed choice about methods of take-off, they were presented with summaries shown in Appendix C. They were asked about their ranked order of preference between three alternatives described as: “You can blast straight up in a rocket. You can hitch a ride on another craft up to a certain altitude and then launch horizontally from the sky. Or, you can take off horizontally in an aircraft that goes all the way to space”. Fig 13 provides the findings with regard to the preferred method of take-off, (derived from response to Q6 of the survey). We note that a rather significant 28% have no particular preference. However, amongst those who do have a preference, there was twice as much interest (at 29%) in a true vertical takeoff, or a horizontal spacecraft takeoff, than in a takeoff in a spacecraft suspended under a mother craft (14%). It is not at all clear why the respondents answered in this way. The response appears counter-intuitive, given that the only experience of suborbital flight that they will possibly have seen would have been the SpaceShipOne flights in 2004. One possible explanation is that these Adventurers may be atypical of a more general public in wanting a more continuous rocket experience into space.
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FIG 13 TAKE-OFF PREFERENCES 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15
29%
0.1
29%
28%
14%
0.05 0 Vertical
Horizontal Horizontal all No under the way Preference Mother craft
4.2 Coming Down Similar questions were posed with regard to methods of descent. The architectural options offered to the respondents were two kinds of vertical landing (both assumed to be by parachute with the tourists remaining within the capsule) and one of horizontal landing. Of course, there will likely be other variants offered in practice, but this gives at least some indication of a possible range of options. Fig 14 gives the results regarding the preferred method of landing, (being derived from response to Q7 of the survey). We note from this that, again, 30% of respondents have no particular architectural preference. However, amongst those who did express a view, there is a sixfold preference for a horizontal landing on dry land (at 53%), versus either of the vertical landings (illustrated as parachute landings in the survey descriptors) which come in at only 9%. This is a very clear finding, although we did not ascertain why the respondents felt so strongly about it. Clearly, the parachute landing approach would currently be a major disincentive to a wide acceptance of public space travel, and therefore those operators who are designing potential orbital space tourism vehicles will need to take this finding into account in order for their business to be successful.
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FIG 14 PREFERRED MODE OF LANDING 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
53%
0.2 0.1
30% 9%
8%
0 Vertical in Water
Vertical on Land
Horiz on Land
No Preference
5. Orbital Spaceflight Options There are a few aspects of the spaceflight experience that are of particular relevance to those planning to offer orbital space tourism opportunities, and for which it would be helpful to know what the customers would prefer.
5.1 Duration The most basic is the duration of the orbital space flight experience. Clearly there are limitations from the point of view of the spacecraft designer imposed by the amount of consumables that can be carried. And there may well prove to be other limitations as a result of medical considerations, once space tourism develops to the point where sufficient examples are available (see Ref 6 for a discussion). However, the purpose of this question was to determine if there are any clear customer preferences on this matter, quite regardless of externally imposed limitations. After all, even the most enjoyable experience comes to an end. Fig 15 (derived from response to Q8 of the survey) presents the findings on this question, and we see that 70% will be happy with two weeks or less for an orbital spaceflight experience, while 30% would want a month or longer. Note that the respondents were given no indication of any price differential for longer flights. This finding will be encouraging to potential orbital space tourism operators. One implication is that an incremental premium could be offered for tourists opting for trips lasting more than two weeks in orbit.
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FIG 15 PREFERRED ORBITAL FLIGHT DURATION 0.3 0.25 0.2 30%
0.15 0.1
20%
20%
20% 10%
0.05 0 3 days
1 week
2 weeks
1 month
longer
5.2 Spacewalking (EVA) Another question for orbiting tourists is to ascertain whether they would want to do a spacewalk outside of the spacecraft, if that were possible, and if so how much they would be willing to pay for the experience (in addition to the initial orbital spaceflight cost). Fig 16 (derived from response to Q 10 of the survey) provides the findings on this question, and we learn that, of the 88% who were interested in EVA (from Q 9), 85% would pay an incremental premium on the trip price of up to 20%, with only 14% being willing to pay a 50% premium. Note that the survey material did not give any indication to respondents about the possibility of increased training time for this option. When this question was addressed in the Futron/Zogby survey four years ago, it was assumed that EVA training would add another year to the overall training schedule; however since then, the assessment has come down considerably, based on information from sources such as the scuba industry.
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FIG 16 MAX PREMIUM FOR AN EVA 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1
37% 26%
23%
14%
0.05 0 5% premium
10% premium
20% premium
50% premium
5.3 Hotels Another matter of some concern is the availability of orbital hotel facilities. The question posed here does not go into much detail about the kind of facilities, but is aimed rather at finding how much people would be willing to pay for having an orbital destination. It was not felt possible at this stage to differentiate in the mind of respondents between a genuine commercial orbiting hotel and a space station like the ISS. So the exact language of the question used was: “How important is a stop at a space hotel or space station? In other words, is a destination in space important or are you happy staying in a spacecraft the whole mission?” Fig 17 (derived from response to Q13 of the survey) provides the findings. We note initially that, rather surprisingly 79% indicated that they did not need the “hotel” option (from Q 12). Of the 21% who did indicate that a “hotel” would be important, 73% of them would pay up to a 20% premium on the trip price, while the remainder would pay up to a 50% incremental premium. It could be that these Adventurers are used to undertaking experiences where comfort is not regarded as a matter of prime consideration, and for durations of a week or less they do not see the need to use a space hotel or space station. There is clearly a need for those operators who are planning to offer space hotels to include in their plans more efforts to educate the prospective public space travelers in some detail about the benefits that their operation will provide.
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FIG 17 PREMIUM FOR ORBITAL HOTEL STAY 0.3 0.25 0.2 29%
0.15 0.1
25%
19% 11%
0.05
15%
0 5% premium
10% premium
20% premium
30% premium
50% premium
6. Training Three questions were aimed at understanding the public’s attitude to training. Two were deliberately focused on the duration that potential space travelers would be willing to spend in preparation for a mission, and one was seeking a response to a currently available training course at a stated price range. There is a discussion about training for public space travel in Ref 5 and Ref 6.
6.1 Available Time There is clearly going to be a different amount of time required for preparing for a suborbital and an orbital space adventure. Therefore the question was asked for each of these trips in turn. Fig 18 (derived from response to Q15 of the survey) contains the response for the suborbital experience, where the question was: “What’s the most amount of time you’d be willing to devote to a suborbital space adventure, including all pre-flight training?” We note of course that one day of this is required for the flight itself. The findings suggest that there is likely to be no problem with public willingness to undergo training, with 59% even being willing to spend 2 weeks training for the one suborbital flight opportunity. This finding opens up opportunities for some extensive training service providers.
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FIG 18 MAX AVAILABLE TIME FOR TRAINING- SUBORBITAL 0.6 0.5 0.4 59%
0.3 0.2 0.1
22%
14% 5%
0 1 day
3 days
1 week
2 weeks
For the orbital experience, the question asked was: “What’s the most amount of time you’d be willing to devote to preparing for and completing an orbital space mission, including medical checks, training and the flight itself?” Here of course, in order to extract the amount of pre-flight training time, we would need to subtract the mission duration using the data from Fig 15. The findings are presented in Fig 19 (derived from the response to Q16 of the survey), and we see that 59% indicate a maximum acceptable duration of 3 months for training, with 41% willing to undergo the current period of 6 months or more. The conclusions of Ref 5 are relevant here, where “Less than 3 months” is recommended as a target for the training period for orbital public space flight participants. There is clearly a difference between professional astronauts and public space travelers in the amount of time they have available to prepare for their space flight experience.
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FIG 19 MAX TIME FOR TRAINING ORBITAL 0.3 0.25 0.2 29%
0.15
30% 19%
0.1
21%
0.05 0 1 month
3 months
6 months
1 year
6.2 Training Now A simple question was asked to determine whether folks would be interested in any preliminary training, perhaps to see if they could handle and enjoy the high-g environments before committing to a full spaceflight experience. The exact question asked was: “If you could start training for a suborbital spaceflight today, would you do so (assuming the cost would be in the $10,000 to $35,000 range)?” The answer is provided in Fig 20 (derived from response to Q20 of the survey), from which we conclude that 61% expressed an interest. This finding ties in very well with the conclusion of the Fig 18 responses discussed above, where 59% would be prepared to do 2 weeks training for a sub-orbital flight. The suborbital spaceflight experience needs to be packaged and marketed as a full several-day-long series of events that culminates in the actual flight. The build-up is an important part of the overall experience.
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FIG 20 SUBORBITAL SPACEFLIGHT TRAINING
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 61% 0.3 39%
0.2 0.1 0 Yes
No
7. Spaceports At the time of writing this report, a number of US states are proposing building spaceports to take advantage of the new growth industry of space tourism. There will be a number of different reasons why some of these proposals will result in successful ventures, while others will not. A major factor will be the decision of which spaceports are chosen by which space tourism operators as their base. Ref 4 provides a discussion of this. However, there could be other reasons in addition, that are more in the preserve of the perceptions of the space tourists themselves. We chose to focus the question on suborbital flights. This is because they are going to be the first to happen in quantity, and moreover for a suborbital experience, the location can have a major impact on the view obtained from space. The exact question (Q14 of the survey) asked was: “Does the location of a suborbital spaceport matter?” The findings are presented in Fig 21, from which we learn that for 48% of the respondents, they would be prepared to go anywhere for their flight. Only 21% stated an interest in the “best view”, and it is possible that they have not yet fully thought about the big difference that the location of the launch site makes to the experience. At the time of the survey, suborbital flights are not considered as point-to-point services, but merely as parabolic trajectories into space, returning back to the point of departure.
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FIG 21 DOES THE SPACEPORT MATTER?
0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05
48% 31% 21%
0 Anywhere
My Country
Best View
As competition amongst spaceports begins to develop, then there may be a change in public perceptions about the importance of this particular element of choice in maximizing the benefits of their spaceflight experience.
8. Corporate Tourists Another matter that was not addressed at all in the Futron/Zogby study was the differentiation between different kinds of space tourists. Fig 22 and Fig 23 (derived from responses to Q17 and Q18 respectively of the survey) show the results of asking a question about corporate-sponsored space tourism flights from two different points of view. First, we see in Fig 22 that, unsurprisingly, an overwhelming majority of respondents (91%) “…would want the chance to win a spaceflight, or to earn one through sales performance, etc”. Then, in Fig 23, we see the same issue from the viewpoint of corporate management. Of course, we must re-state that these respondents are a biased sample in that they belong to our “Adventurers” grouping. Nevertheless, Figure 23 shows the findings when respondents were asked if they, as the person in charge in their companies, would “consider offering a spaceflight” as a sales incentive, or reward for performance. We note from the response that there is a difference, with now an increase from 9% to 16% declining, based on stated concerns about putting high performance employees at risk, and losing them for the duration of the training period (some of these concerns are captured in Appendix D, Section 2).
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FIG 22 SPACE FLIGHT AS A PRIZE?
1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 91%
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
9%
0 yes
no
FIG 23 WOULD YOU OFFER AS CORPORATE PRIZE?
1 0.8 0.6 84% 0.4 0.2
16%
0 yes
no
It seems that there could be a number of obstacles to be negotiated before this aspect of space tourism could become a major contributor to the sales projections.
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9. Lotteries Another category of question is related to the possibility of space tourism lotteries. It is difficult to ask a very detailed question on this topic at this stage of the development of the business, so the result may have limited value, but it does give some indication of whether this approach to getting the less wealthy public up into space might be successful. Since the specific question asked of the respondent was about how much they would pay for a space lottery ticket, it is important to notice the precise language of the question: “Since the cost of an orbital flight is expected to be $10 million or more……if the grand prize (of a spaceflight lottery) was a two week orbital adventure….how much would you pay for a lottery ticket? …..assume the odds would be about the same as that of winning a local state lottery…..but assume you won’t have to pay the taxes associated with winning..”. The result appears in Fig 24 (derived from response to Q19 of the survey), from which we can conclude that a surprisingly high percentage (31%) would pay as much as $100 or more for a ticket. FIG 24 - A LOTTERY TICKET TO SPACE? 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15
25%
0.1 0.05
9%
7%
$1000 ticket
$500 ticket
16%
16%
$100 ticket
$50 ticket
27%
0 $10 ticket
$5 ticket
There could well be similar issues in running a space lottery to those associated with corporate space tourism. These would be issues related to risk and insurance and perceptions. However, if these can be overcome, then the market would be there.
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10. Gender Variations Sections 10 thru 13 address the extent to which the survey respondent pool was homogeneous in its attitudes to space tourism opportunities, and whether some minority segments had markedly different perceptions from those of the majority of the respondents. For comparison purposes, standard data points were selected for each of these sections. These were the gross market opportunity for suborbital and orbital spaceflight, as described in Fig 9 for the entire survey database. The criteria were chosen because they offered perhaps the most useful and most immediate impact measurements. In the case of gender variations, Fig 25 shows how the responses from the 9% of female respondents differ from the results provided by the whole pool. In particular we note that the female respondents have significantly less interest in suborbital missions ( only 20% compared to the overall 30%), in favor of a slightly increased interest in the orbital opportunity (50% compared with the overall value of 47%). One must recognize, of course, that the sample size for the female sub-section of respondents is rather small, at around 90, and so we cannot draw too many numerical conclusions. However, it does seem that there is enough of a difference to be able to assert that, at the gross market opportunity level, suborbital spaceflight appeals more strongly to the males in this pool of Adventurer respondents. A similar result was found in the survey of Ref 8.
Orb
S1 Female -
Total - Orb
Female-Sub
50% 40% Gross Mkt 30% 20% Opp 10% 0%
Total - Sub
FIG 25 GENDER IMPACT
It was not possible to assess from the responses the reason for this finding. It seems that females as a group either do not appreciate the thrills of the suborbital experience to the same extent as their male counterparts, or maybe they do not see the cost/benefit equation in quite the same way. Some careful marketing efforts by the new suborbital operators will be needed to address these perceptions amongst potential female space tourists.
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11. Regional Variations The findings of the Futron/Zogby survey were based on the feedback from a database consisting entirely of US respondents. One objective of the present survey was to try to assess whether perceptions about space tourism varied with region. In attempting to determine whether, and to what extent, the regional place of origin of the respondents had an impact, data was collected in the Adventurers’ Survey in seven main regional groupings, as reported in Fig 2. Given the total sample size of 998, the implications of Fig 2 are that for South America and Africa the sub-samples are too small to be of value. Clearly, the majority of the overall findings of the survey are a consequence of the US and European regions, and therefore to identify any regional differences we need to look at outliers. Since a third of the world’s millionaires come from Asia, it seemed important to look at the perceptions from that region. Fig 26A shows the rather dramatic results. Even though the sample size is only 51, the changes from the norm are too great to be caused just by sampling. It seems clear that, at least regarding gross market opportunities, the level of interest in both suborbital and orbital spaceflight is much lower in Asia than in the survey in general. The 30% level of interest in suborbital reduces to only 10% for the Asian respondents, and the 47% level of interest in orbital spaceflight is reduced to only 24%. If these findings prove to be statistically valid, then they have important consequences for business planning of space tourism companies, particularly because of the wealth that is held in the region.
FIG 26A REGIONAL IMPACT ASIA 60% Gross Mkt 40% Opp 20% 0% Total Asia Total Asia - Sub - Sub - Orb - Orb
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This was such a surprising finding that an extra check was carried out. A similar analysis was carried out on another outlier, this time the area representing Australia and New Zealand was chosen, and the results are presented in Fig 26B. The sample size in this case is even smaller, at 38, so one needs to be careful in not being too focused on precise numerical values. However, in this case, we find that there is a rather close parallel between the results for Aus/NZ and the results of the population in general. The suborbital expression of interest is 26% for Aus/NZ compared to the overall 30% (well within the error level), and for the orbital experience the comparable figures are identical at 47% for Aus/NZ and for the overall population. So, respondents from Australia and New Zealand behave similarly to those from the US and Europe. Some further checks were conducted on the Asian subset of data. It was postulated that there might be a cultural bias for Asian respondents, who might find the act of openly responding to questionnaires somewhat unusual. A check regarding the free-form questions, however, as described in Appendix D, found that the Asians responded to these questions at the same rate as the overall population, i.e. 10 out of 51 = 20%, so the cultural explanation does not seem to be valid. A check at the “fair price” level of Question 2 determined that the Asian subset responded with almost exactly the same distribution profile as the population at large for both suborbital (Q 2D) and orbital (Q2E) experiences, and with the same peak prices identified. However, although the shape of the profile was a close match, the level of responses was significantly lower (by about a third to a half) than for the overall population. The “Asian effect”, therefore, does appear to be a real phenomenon. Incidentally, by extrapolation therefore, the findings from some or all of the countries represented by Canada/Mexico/South America must exceed the overall global average findings. Therefore the findings of this survey strongly suggest that there are significant regional differences in attitudes to the space tourism experience, and/or how it is presented, which need further study.
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Aust/NZ
Total - Orb
Aust/NZ
60% Gross Mkt 40% 20% Opp 0%
Total - Sub
FIG 26B REGIONAL IMPACT AUST/NZ
S1
12. Age Variations In the case of seeking the possible impact of the age of the respondents, Fig 27 shows a comparison of the responses of those aged “21 and under” to the population as a whole. Fig 3 shows that there are effectively two outliers to the population data where age is concerned, namely the old (60 and above), and the young (21 and under). The ages between 21 and 60 are very well represented in the overall findings. It was decided to look at the young for two main reasons: first of all they represent the future (and it is anticipated it will take at least 20 years to develop the new industry), and secondly there are sufficient data sheets to make the analysis worthwhile (16% is equivalent to about 160 responses). In making this decision, it was recognized that there is no lower age limit in the survey process, and therefore there may be some responses from very young children amongst the data. A manual check of the responses did not show up any obvious evidence that this was in fact the case.
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The result of the analysis is rather surprising, and possibly worrying for the future of the industry. To the extent that the findings are statistically significant (and this is not totally the case for samples as small as 160) it seems that, even at the gross market opportunity level, the young have less interest in space tourism than the Adventurer population at large. It is worth pointing out as a reminder that the analysis refers to responses to Q 1, which explicitly removes consideration of pricing from the decision-making. Respondents merely indicate what they would like to experience, assuming that money is no object. Fig 27 indicates that the youth response to suborbital opportunities is only 26% compared to 30% for the whole sample, and only 40% for the orbital opportunity, compared to 47% for the whole sample. We can therefore state, by extrapolation, that the responses for those whose age is above 60 must be above the values for the overall population.
FIG 27 AGE IMPACT 50% 40% Gross Mkt 30% 20% Opp 10% 0% Total - YouthTotal Sub Sub Orb
S1 Youth - Orb
Two other side checks were conducted at this time, although it is acknowledged that the sample sizes are too small to be used for any serious extrapolation. First of all, it was determined that there were 17% females within this youth group, which is very close to the overall sample population representation of 16% (see Fig 3). Therefore there is no difference in the age distribution of females versus that of the overall population. Secondly, the female subset of the young respondents was separately analyzed, and the findings were that 14% indicated an interest for the suborbital, and 43% for the orbital opportunities. This finding is in keeping with the overall female response described in Section 10, i.e. females are less interested in suborbital spaceflight than males, and more interested in orbital. For this youth sector, the female response for suborbital was 14% compared with 26% for males, and was 43% for orbital compared with 40% for the males. It should be mentioned that this result was not found to be the case amongst Australian young people, as reported in Ref 8. Some more work is needed that is statistically valid and looks at demand around the world in different age groups.
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Therefore we have confirmation that the gender response reported in Section 10 is independent of age. It also confirms that female youth have a similar lack of interest in spaceflight in general than is the case for their elders. We must remember, however, that we are dealing with very small sample sizes in this subcategory of a) youth and b) female gender. In fact, only 14 completed forms could be thus cross-correlated. It seems clear that a great deal of work remains to be done to educate the youth about the possibilities of public space travel that are emerging.
13. Wealth Variations In considering the impact of wealth, we make use of the subset of respondents referred to in Fig 6, and who have indicated that they earn at least $250,000 and/or have a net worth of at least $1million. They make this assertion in responding to Question 25. Since overall 14% of respondents make this claim, the quantities are sufficient to make a comparative analysis worthwhile. The main conclusion, represented in Fig 28, and derived from responses to Q1 D and Q1E of the survey, is that with respect to the gross market perceptions, there is no really significant difference in the findings between the total sample population and that segment that is relatively wealthy. The gross market opportunity for suborbital spaceflight is 27% for the rich Adventurers compared to the 30% figure for the total population. For the orbital spaceflight, the comparative figures are 45% for the rich Adventures compared with 47% for the total population. Both these small differences fall within the error range with sample sizes of around 140. This finding should not perhaps be surprising, since at the level of gross market perceptions, price is not an issue.
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S1 WealthyOrb
Total - Orb
Wealthy Sub
50% 40% Gross Mkt 30% 20% Opp 10% 0%
Total - Sub
FIG 28 WEALTH IMPACT
Some further cross-checks were carried out, but here the sample sizes that emerged from the cross-correlations were far too small to allow for numerical extrapolation. Nevertheless they confirm the trends exhibited elsewhere in the sample database. For instance, there were about 20 respondents that were both rich and under 21. For this small segment, the suborbital gross market opportunity was 20% (compared with the 27% figure for all the rich respondents), and the orbital value was 35% (compared with the 45% figure for all rich respondents). This reinforces the findings of Section 12 that the youth have less interest than the overall population. There were not enough rich female respondents (only 9) to allow for any meaningful numerical comparison to be carried out. A cross-check on location found that 11% of the rich Adventurers came from Asia, compared to 5% for the overall population as shown in Fig 2. This is particularly significant bearing in mind the findings of Section 11 above, where it was reported that Asians responding to this survey are much less likely to be interested in either suborbital or orbital spaceflight experiences than is the case for the overall population surveyed.
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The formulation for defining the rich segment of the Adventurer respondents was chosen to be the same as that used for the entire sample of the Futron/Zogby survey, so that allows some comparisons that are described in the next section. It should be restated here, however, that this Adventurers’ Survey was not performed with the same rigorous sampling approach as the former study, and in particular we know that the Adventurers providing their responses in this survey have self-selected themselves to be interested in adventure activities and the possibilities of space tourism. In the Futron/Zogby survey, by contrast, the respondents were selected by a random sampling process, with the only criterion for their inclusion in the survey being their level of wealth. It is to the next section that we need to turn to look for differences in the realizable market responses.
14. Comparison with the Futron/Zogby Survey
As has been made clear above, an exact quantitative comparison with the Futron/Zogby survey results is not possible. However, certain trends and indicators are nevertheless discernible. We have already noted in Fig 28 that with regard to the gross opportunity perceptions, where price is not an issue, there is no significant difference between the general population of Adventurers, and that small subset of 14% who indicate that they have wealth levels that coincide with the sample interviewed for the Futron/Zogby study of Reference 1. There is no direct comparison, however, in the Futron/Zogby study for this gross opportunity indicator, since responses in that study were obtained on a five-point gradual scale from “Definitely likely” to “Definitely not likely”. Perhaps a better comparison can be made with the realizable market findings of both studies, when we use a comparable price level for the experience. The common values that are most useful for the comparison are $200K for the suborbital experience and $20M for the orbital spaceflight. For the suborbital opportunity, a figure of 12% was obtained from the “Definitely Likely” category of Figure 2 of the Futron/Zogby survey report. Fig 29A below shows this result compared with two findings from the present survey. The 3% figure comes from the $200K result in Fig 11D of this report. The 12% figure is derived from the small subset of rich Adventurers who were part of this survey, and their responses to Q3D and Q3E. The sample size is of course small, but 14 out of the total 125 in the subset indicated a positive response to the realizable question (Q 3) in the survey. As a reminder, the precise language is “It’s time to get real. Which of the following adventures do you see yourself actually doing someday….and select the amount you both could and would pay.”
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FIG 29A SUBORBITAL REALIZABLE ($200K) 0.15 0.1 12%
12%
0.05 3% 0 F/Z
Advent
Rich Advent
A similar comparison for the orbital realizable market is provided in Fig 29B, with the same associated caveats about sample size and the lack of an exact comparator. For this chart, the orbital value of 10% from the Futron/Zogby study was taken from Figure 9 of that study report, again using the “Definitely Likely” category. The Adventurers’ Survey value of 2% comes from Fig 11 E of this report, at the $20M level, and the “Rich Adventurers” value of 11% comes from the responses to Q3D and Q3E from the small sub-sample of 125 respondents who indicated “Yes” to Q 25. So, 13 of this sub-sample indicated they were “willing and able” to undertake the orbital experience “someday”, at a price of $20M, which they had selected from a possible price range that went as low as $1/2 M.
FIG 29B ORBITAL REALIZABLE ($20M) 0.15 0.1 0.05
11%
10% 2%
0 F/Z
Advent
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It is perhaps not surprising that the overall population of the Adventurers’ Survey report lower realizable take-up compared to the all-millionaire respondents of the Futron/Zogby survey, given the high price levels currently on offer. Despite the small sample sizes, it does seem, however, that the richer respondents to the Adventurers’ Survey do provide similar responses to those of the earlier survey for realizable take-up. There are a few other points of comparison between the surveys worth noting. They are summarized below in Fig 29C, (where the “Comment” column refers to this Adventurers’ Survey). We note similarities concerning space hotels and training periods, but more of the Adventurers’ group wanted to take on the challenge of EVA. Clearly the F/Z group was older and richer; the Adventurers’ group was younger and riskier.
FIG 29C COMPARISONS OF FUTRON/ZOGBY AND ADVENTURERS' SURVEY ITEM Sample Size Male/Female Distribution Origins Age Distribution Wealth Distribution Adventure Experience EVA Hotels Training (Orbital) Spaceports
Futron/Zogby Survey
ADVENTURERS' 450
70/30% All US 76% aged 30-65 100% millionaires Mountain 16% Skydiving 2% 41% "more likely" 20% "much more likely" 50% "more likely" < 3mths 60% want "in US"
COMMENTS 998
Not random
91/9% 63% US 78% aged 20-60 14% millionaires
Fig 1 Fig 2 Fig 3 Section 13
Mountain 30% Skydiving 22%
Fig 7 Fig 7 Section 5.2 Section 5.3 Section 6.1 Fig 21
88% 21% 59% < 3mths 31% want "my country"
Thus, we note in general that there are recurring trends, but with due account being taken of the caveats introduced into the Adventurers’ Survey through the analysis of sub-categories related to age, origin and gender.
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15. Conclusions This Adventurers’ Survey has explored current thinking on behalf of part of the public with regards to their interest in space tourism. It has done more. It has used the fact that respondents already have some experience of adventure travels to get some valuable insights into how potential space tourists view some of the floating variables of the space experience package. At a sample size of 998 responses, many with associated commentary, the findings provide a significant contribution to understanding public perceptions about the new industry. We need to remind readers, however, that those who gave their responses via this survey instrument were not selected by a truly random process. Rather, they were self-selected to be interested in adventure experiences. Thus it is not possible to gross-up the findings of the survey to produce forecasts representative of the general population. The following conclusions result. General Market Interest and Trends (i) It has been four years since the previous major study, the Futron/Zogby survey. What do we find about any changes that have taken place in perceptions of space tourism during the intervening time? Generally speaking, we find that the original findings of the Futron/Zogby survey are still valid. There is still a market interest for space tourism, and no obvious diverging trends are discernible over the last four years with regard to public perceptions. We have found that space tourism now takes its place among other adventure packages for consideration when funds will allow. Spaceflight is regarded as the “ultimate” adventure experience, however. (ii) If price were not an issue, over a third of respondents want to go into space, and twice as many would even go to the Moon if they could afford it. For these respondents, however, prices are generally too high at present. The gross market level of interest for suborbital spaceflight amongst these survey respondents is 30%, with this figure falling to a realizable level of interest of 7% at current price levels of $100K and above. For the orbital spaceflight experience, the comparable figures are 47% at the gross market level falling to 4% at today’s realistic price levels of $10M and above. (iii) The respondents have provided useful input on what price levels would be required to open up the space tourism markets generally. Half of them indicated that they will be willing to wait until prices approach $25K for the suborbital experience, or $1M for the orbital experience. Detailed equivalent figures were included for the other adventure options also, i.e. High Altitude Jet, Zero-g Flight, Space Training, and Around-the-Moon adventures.
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Specific Options Some useful data was obtained regarding specific detailed options associated with the space tourism experience. (iv) Regarding training, these respondents are willing to spend as much as 2 weeks in preparation for even a suborbital space adventure, and spend up to $35K in doing so, a finding that opens up opportunities for some extensive training service providers. For an orbital spaceflight, however, these respondents would require training reduced to 3 months or less from the currently accepted training regimens. Work will be needed in order to develop a training process that will work within these customer requirements. (v) Regarding spaceports, the respondents do not see this as an important part of the decision process for their space adventure, and they would go anywhere within their country to do it. Only 21% currently considered that it might be important for the views in the suborbital experience, although it is likely that this finding could change as competition heats up among rival spaceports. (vi) The significant majority (70%) of potential space tourists would be satisfied with an orbital duration of 2 weeks or less, a fact that will help potential service providers plan their operations. (vii) Extra Vehicular Activity is a very attractive offering to this pool of adventurous respondents, and 88% would want to try EVA. They are prepared to pay a premium for this, and the detailed price elasticity data is in the report. (viii) More work will be required, however, to interest the public in the benefits and/or need for space hotels. Only 21% currently see space hotels as necessary for their orbital experience. Price elasticity data is in the report for those respondents who do see the need to pay an incremental amount for the use of a space hotel facility. There would be merit in presenting the public with a more detailed rationale of the pros and cons of having a space hotel, and describing what kinds of facilities and services they would provide. (ix) A note of warning was sounded by respondents about the possibilities of developing a corporate space tourism concept. Respondents highlighted various aspects that would need more work before it would be feasible, generally related to insurance and training duration. A space lottery looks an attractive idea, however, and 31% of these respondents would pay $100 for a ticket for an orbital flight.
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Architectural Design Options (x) What do we now know about the wish list of future potential space tourists about the kind of experience they would seek? A large proportion of them have not yet formulated a firm idea about their preferred design of the tourism spacecraft. But of those Adventurers who stated an opinion, they did not favor the take-off technique with the spacecraft suspended below a mother craft, and they were not attracted to vertical (parachute) landings on either water or land. These findings were not marginal, it must be said. The preferences were very clear. In fact, there was only half as much interest in the SpaceShipOne mode of take-off as in its alternatives, and there was a preference for a horizontal landing versus a vertical, parachute, approach that was stronger by a factor of six. There are implications of these findings not only in spacecraft system design, but also in marketing of the experiences. It may be that these responses are a unique characteristic of this grouping of respondents having an adventurous spirit, and that different findings would result from investigating other sample populations, but this might be a dangerous assumption to make. Who are the Travelers? This survey has provided some valuable insight into various sub-segments within the potential space tourist database. Some of them were surprises. (xi) First of all, we note that these previous adventure tourists physically are rather large and bulky; something that spacecraft designers need to take into account. (xii) We found big differences between genders to attitudes to space tourism. Females are much less interested in suborbital space tourism, as described, than males. The actual percentages were 30% less for females compared to the largely male population as a whole. It is not clear why this is the case, and what it is about the suborbital flight experience that appeals more to males. But, certainly, this information should be an important input to the marketing campaigns for suborbital space tourism operators. (xiii) A warning note is sounded by the responses to this survey with regards to the age breakdown analysis. We found that the young had much less interest in space tourism than the overall population. Clearly this is not good news for the future of the industry, and steps are needed to address the causes of this result. It was found that the result was not affected by either the gender of the respondent or their country of origin. This is a universal finding.
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(xiv) Another cause for concern was the finding of the regional variation analysis. It was found that significant changes exist between perceptions of space tourism in different regions of the world. Of particular concern was the result for Asia. It was found that the level of interest in both suborbital and orbital spaceflight is dramatically lower in Asia than in the survey in general. The actual figures are a reduction by two thirds for suborbital and about a half for orbital experiences. Since a third of the world’s wealthy individuals reside in Asia, this indicates a need to address the finding through marketing activities. (xv) Finally, we come to perceptions of risk. These respondents are no strangers to risk. They have in fact already previously demonstrated their willingness to spend money to put themselves at risk for the resulting thrills. Most of them are willing to undergo a space flight today provided only that it is as safe as a jet fighter flight, or as a Space Shuttle flight. Some of them however (19%), want to wait until it is perceived to be as safe as an airliner flight. Amongst the freeformat commentaries that were received, the following perhaps highlight the general attitude to risk: “The chance to go would outweigh any fear, as long as the company could show all reasonable precautions were in place…..” “Safety is a matter of opinion – I think once a person is informed of the risks it is a personal choice…” “As a corporate sponsor, the lack of track record and inherent risk would be too great to offer employees - if nothing else, the potential legal liability is too great at this time…” ; and “I would of course be willing to take a much greater personal risk than I would with potential clients…” However, in general, the 20% of respondents of the Adventurers’ Survey who provided comments were very excited about the possibilities that the survey instrument had offered them for consideration. They are ready now. “Light this candle!” one of them said. “Beam me up Scotty!”, said another. Some even anticipate getting jobs as part of the space tourism infrastructure. Many of them used the phrase “The ultimate adventure experience!” The authors of the analysis of the survey responses offer their thanks to those who took the time to respond with their views. These views will now have a chance to influence the direction being taken by the new industry, and as a consequence the space adventure offerings in the years ahead will be more aligned with their preferences. They will be better space adventures.
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16. References 16.1 Space Tourism Market Study, Futron/Zogby, October 2002 16.2 Final Report of the Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry, November 2002 16.3 Webber, D., The First 100 Years of Public Space Travel, AIAA, Dayton, Ohio, 2003 16.4 Webber, D., Horses for Courses – Spaceport Types, ISDC 2005, Washington DC 16.5 Webber, D., Your Personal Spaceflight Adventure – Have You Got What it Takes?, ISDC 2006, Los Angeles 16.6 Webber, D., Designing the Orbital Space Tourism Experience, STAIF 2006, Albuquerque, New Mexico 16.7 Webber, D., Public Space Markets – What We Know and What We Don’t Know, STAIF 2003, Albuquerque, New Mexico 16.8 Crouch, G.I., et al, Going Where No Tourist Has Gone Before: The Future Demand for Space Tourism, Latrobe University, Australia, 2006
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X-Prize dawn at Mojave Spaceport, September 29th, 2004
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Photo: Derek Webber
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APPENDIX A – Methodology
The Adventurers’ Survey was conducted using an online data collection process. The Survey Questionnaire shown in Appendix B was developed and placed online during August and September 2006. It was estimated that about 15 minutes was needed in order for respondents to complete the survey. It was made clear to potential respondents that the survey would be conducted on an anonymous basis. In this way, the company Incredible Adventures maintained the confidentiality of their client list. Visitors to the Incredible Adventures web site: www.incredible-adventures.com were invited to respond online. As an incentive, they were offered an opportunity to win a free flying adventure offered by the company. Arrangements were made to operate this free adventure drawing while preserving the confidentiality of the survey findings (by keeping a separate file of email addresses of those wishing to be entered into the drawing). During the period of the survey collection, 998 responses were received, and they came from people who were located in a range of countries. This response rate is large enough to provide a representative sample of the views of Adventurers who use the web site. To check this, a series of interim analyses were conducted when the number of responses reached about 100, 200, 300, 400 etc , and by the time the database reached 998, the variations in results had stabilized on a pattern where aggregate values did not change more than about a percentage point. Refer to Fig 30 A, Fig 30 B, Fig 30 C to see how the responses for gross market opportunity stabilized as the number of respondents increased, and became large enough to be a fairly representative sample for visitors to the Incredible Adventures’ web site. The first three data points were collected thru August 2006, and the last four refer to the accumulating total through September 2006. When the sample numbers were small, it appears that the most enthusiastic people were the first to respond. As the total sample size approached 1,000 returns, the variations had settled down to lower values and a change of only 1 or 2 percentage points. The values at data point #8 represent the responses for the total population of 998 as evaluated for this survey report.
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FIG 30A SUBORBITAL TREND 50% 43% 40% 36% 33% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4
34% 33% 31% 30%
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FIG 30B ORBITAL TREND 60%
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FIG 30C ROUND THE MOON TREND 80% 80% 69% 59% 60%
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GRADUAL ACCUMULATED RESULTS
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In order to ensure that the respondents had a clear idea of some of the concepts involved, some more detailed back-up information and illustrations were provided. This information was accessible via “pop-ups” which could be accessed by “clicking” on a button during the completion process using the on-line survey form. Appendix C shows all of this back-up information in the form that it was made available to the respondents. An attempt was made to ensure that the descriptions were “value neutral” so as not to bias the responses. The data in the completed forms was accumulated throughout the months of August and September 2006, and when the total had reached 998, the findings were assembled into this report. The Executive Summary was published in September 2006, and its findings were made freely available to the press and via the Spaceport Associates web site: www.SpaceportAssociates.com. It should be noted, for comparison, that this methodology differed substantially from that used by the Futron/Zogby survey of 2002. In the former survey, the respondents were interviewed one-on-one via telephone and the process took 30 minutes per respondent. More importantly, the former survey was conducted only amongst randomly selected wealthy individuals with no prior bias towards spaceflight or adventure holidays. This meant that it was possible in the 2002 survey to gross-up the survey findings to represent the total millionaire population, and therefore to derive forecasts with an a priori knowable range of error. This is not possible with the Adventurers’ Survey. The present survey does, however, lead to some advantages over the former one. The main advantages of this survey are: (i)
It is current. Attitudes have had an opportunity to change in the four years since Futron/Zogby.
(ii)
Another benefit is that the present survey, unlike Futron/Zogby, does not consist only of US respondents. In fact 37% came from abroad, and so there is the possibility to compare perceptions of space tourism around the world.
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(iii)
A third benefit is that by definition the respondents to The Adventurersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Survey are already potentially biased in favor of taking a space tourism trip, when compared with the general population that was used in Futron/Zogby. Therefore their opinions carry perhaps more importance, particularly when the data is used to craft future space tourism adventure packages. Quite simply, they represent a pool of potential space tourism clients, and many have given freely of their views about the specific kind of experience that would interest them. And finally,
(iv)
This survey contains answers to a range of questions that were not even included in the original survey, such as interest in lunar tourism, and attitudes to corporate space tourism. There are views expressed on spaceports. In particular, the respondents provided their opinions on proposed alternative spacecraft design architectures.
Once the responses had been received, various checks were undertaken to ensure that no duplicate forms were counted, and that the appropriate totaling had been done for partially completed forms. It was found that only a very small number (less than 2%) had submitted multiple entries, presumably in order to increase their chances of winning the prize for entrants - the fact that it required a full 15 minutes to complete an entry was clearly an effective barrier to this kind of thing happening. Only 10% of the responses were to some extent incomplete, but the incomplete parts were in any case able to be included in the analysis. Of course, the sample size was not always 998 for every part of the analysis in The Adventurersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Survey, since some much smaller data subsets were used to provide cross-correlations.
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APPENDIX B – Survey Questionnaire The following document is the format of the survey form that was used to solicit the responses reported in this report as The Adventurers’ Survey. Note that the pop-up backups that are described in Appendix C were associated with: • • •
The prize description in the preamble. The alternative space adventures listed in Question 1; and The architectural modes of takeoff and landing listed in Questions 6 and 7.
Note also that there was provision for the following areas of free comment, described in Appendix D: • • •
Choice of space adventure, as part of Question 1. Corporate space tourism, as part of Question 17; and A final opportunity was afforded for free comment, as part of Question 26, regarding adventures previously undertaken.
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APPENDIX C â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Descriptions of Experiences The following back-up information was provided in the form of pop-ups during the online survey. 1. The Prize Description
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2. The Alternative Space Adventures
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3. The Architectural modes of Takeoff and Landing
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APPENDIX Dâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Comments of Respondents As described in Appendix B, an opportunity was offered to respondents to provide free comments in addition to the standardized format replies, and these responses are provided below. Fig 31 provides an overall summary of the comment response. It is perhaps remarkable that as many as 25% of the respondents took the extra time to provide these free-form comments, and for that reason they are almost all listed in this Appendix, even though this entails some degree of repetition. It was clearly important to these respondents that their opinions were being heard. They are provided without commentary, and are unedited except for spelling, sometimes grammar, and occasionally for a little awkwardness of English from those not writing in their native language. It is clear that there is a great passion for space travel amongst many of these respondents, yet they have often reflected seriously on aspects of the experience that would benefit from some further deliberation within the industry. This is particularly true of Appendix D, Part 2. Not included are a combination of maybe 5% of the responses that either merely offered advice on the details of the survey process itself, belonged to a tiny number which contained pornographic or unintelligible remarks, or those examples that were an almost word-for-word replication of someone elseâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s views. It is anticipated that some of the statements published here may form useful elements of marketing materials, and/or give insights of areas where marketing efforts are needed. Some respondents clearly have little idea of what is involved in making these trips possible, or indeed about what is possible at all! The comments are presented in no particular order, and are essentially random.
FIG 31 SUMMARY OF COMMENTS 300 200 100 0 Choice of Corporate Adventure Space and Experiences Space Adventure Lotteries
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1. Comments related to Choice of Space Adventure (following Q1)
One should remember, of course, while reading these responses, that the preceding question introduces six kinds of space adventure and seeks feedback from respondents assuming that money would be no problem. So these comments are related to gross market interest, and not the realizable market which would be addressed later via Question 3. Nevertheless, they do still provide an insight into the up-front feelings and perceptions of this group of survey respondents, i.e. those folk who are already biased towards an adventure vacation, and who are presumably therefore not as concerned as the general public would be about matters of risk and comfort. The respondents are not, however, necessarily pre-disposed towards an interest in space exploration, except, of course, for the fact that they are self-selected in deciding to complete the fifteen-minute survey form related to space vacations. Following are 200 responses, some of which are highlighted for extra attention:
“Around the Moon? – Beyond my wildest dreams!” “I want to go!” “Apollo 8 was the greatest adventure.” “What about a Moonwalk?” “If anywhere on the form I check that I wouldn’t do one of your space adventures, it’s purely a money issue.” “I’m assuming old age and old bones don’t matter.”
“The chance to go would outweigh any fear, as long as the company could show all reasonable precautions were in place, since risk is inherent.” “Would really like a surface stay on the Moon.” “The opportunity of a lifetime!” “Space travel is the ultimate tourist adventure.” “I was a project manager on Apollo and would love to see the Earth from space.” Cont’d
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“One of my greatest dreams is to go to space myself some day.” “If you are going to take the time to train…why not go for the Gold!” “Sub-orbital flight is really too quick to fully experience the awesome rush of space flight.” “I am definitely going to be aboard a spaceship in the next 6 years sometime..” “Everybody only lives once!”
“Let’s light this candle!” “The chance to be able to experience zero-g would be amazing. Only a select few have been able to see Earth in real time from space. If I won the lottery I would jump at the chance to do this. It’s a once in a lifetime adventure.”
“I think it should be expensive enough to be a meaningful once in a lifetime experience, but not expensive enough that only the super-rich can afford it.” “I’ll need more than 6 months or a year to prepare myself for a trip like this, but in my mind I’m definitely ready!” “It is my dream to go to space.” “I would love to be able to have the opportunity to go to outer space, but the price needs to be right.” “I have already done (a) the high altitude flight, and (b) the zero-g flight, and would do them again!” “I want to go into space NOW!” “I’d rather land on the Moon.” “If money was no problem, then altitude - what else would you want?” “I love flying!” “Want to walk and stay on the Moon.” “Nice view I suppose.” Cont’d
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“I want a one-way trip to a space hotel and a job there!” “Any jet flight will do!” “Nothing on Earth would be greater than to live the thrill that the Apollo pilots felt. To become totally detached from the Earth and its gravity and orbit another heavenly body.” “I want an eight or nine day Moon adventure, orbiting, landing and walking. Maybe stay two or three days at a Moon base shielded from solar radiation and flares, with a large telescope to look back at the Earth.” “Yes, it is a dream which would have come true.” “Yeah!” “I think it would be great to have a modular building on the Moon.” “I want a trip to the space station!” “Sure – I have wanted to be an astronaut since I was age 2, and I am now 42!” “Of course, the Moon trip will also give the Earth orbit experience.” “The ultimate trip!” “A Moon landing would be even better.”
“I want to feel the exhilaration of seeing the Earth rise over the Moon.” “I’d like to do the adventures in order - progressively getting more adventurous.” “If someone else is buying, I want the whole enchilada! I’d even volunteer to go to Mars!” “Of course space training should be a prerequisite for public space travel –it would not really be a desire or goal in itself. Tell me what I need to know and get me up there!” “I’d just like to sit in a Blue Angels’ jet.”
“Any and all of the above. No hesitation, whatever (except for high-g!).” Cont’d
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“Both (e) orbital space flight and (f) round the Moon, would be great.” “It’s a fantasy, but hurry-up and offer them. Already flew the Mig 25 to “the edge of space” and had an experience I’ll never forget.” “Even the cheapest prices on the form for Q2 cost too much, but I’d like to do all six!” “Wow!”
“It will be great to see just once the Earth from space.” “Already done (a) the high altitude jet flight and (b) the zero-g flight.” “I just love jet flight.” “You did say you were buying, right?!” “A trip to Mars and beyond would also be cool!” “The sky really is the limit for me. So, I’m not going outside the atmosphere.” “I would like to go to Mars.” “I flew on Concorde for much less than your High Altitude Jet Flight.” “I would also be interested in interplanetary flights once they become available.” “That would be a really big adventure – I would do almost anything to go.” “I want it all, unfortunately money is an issue.”
“There is no other view more beautiful than the Earth from space.” “Love to do any or all of the above.” “Always dreamed of doing it - but cannot afford.” “I would definitely want to see the edge of the atmosphere.” Cont’d
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“It would be a grand adventure.”
“Any one of your offerings would be the adventure of a lifetime.” “Hell, I would have gone up the day after the Challenger accident! - I always thought it was not fair that only a handful of men went around the Moon…” “Great ideas!” “I believe that things will gain such rapid speed that (all these options) will be available before 2020.” “I want to see the other side of the Moon.” “To replicate the first trips to the Moon, and share the sights and sound of those first great pioneers, is an adventure beyond any imagination! The round the Moon flight is the climax – it is a prolonged adventure that will be remembered though I live to be a thousand years old!” “I’d like to view our planet Earth with its beautiful kaleidoscope of colors from high up in outer space.” “I would hold off on suborbital – it’s not sufficient to just barely get there. I want to see sunup, sunset, etc….” “Zero-g sex would be a good plus for orbital. There needs to be a mate-finding service for those of us that are single or cannot afford the price of a partner ticket.” “Doing the Moon would be incredible!”
“The frontier of space gives us the opportunity to expand our potential as a species.” “A lunar landing with a one week stay is my ultimate goal, assuming that I can be successful enough to afford the trip, or that it is part of my job to welcome space tourists to a lunar outpost.” “Orbital space is less risky than a multi-day mission to the Moon.”
“I would love a high fidelity space simulation experience – not everyone is a millionaire – don’t forget us regular folks!” Cont’d
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“I would prefer comfortable accommodations; each family should be allowed private accommodations allowing for personal activities as couples…” “I’d be willing to move permanently into space.” “Lunar surface exploration is the thing.” “Why just touch the edge of space with a suborbital flight when you could be right out there? And come on, who doesn’t want to see the other side of the Moon?” “The orbital flight would be the most thrilling.” “Round the Moon, or docking at a station or hotel, is of the most interest to me.”
“Going into orbit around the Moon would be the brass ring of anything done in life.” “(Would not need a hotel) as long as the craft has the volume of an Apollo Command Module.” “The concept of space exploration and expanding our frontiers has always excited me. I would also enjoy bringing along a female companion to see what carnal pleasures are like in zero-g space.” “I would take a trip to another galaxy given the opportunity.” “I want to go all the way!” “To see the Earth as in the return from lunar orbit would be life changing.”
“The Moon! Are you kidding me? Only a handful of men have been around the Moon.” “To go into space would be a buzz.” “Space travel has always been my ultimate goal in life - I have followed the program since Shepard.” “If money did not matter, I would be living in the ISS right now!” “Sign me up for going to Mars and back!” Cont’d
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“Businesses will invest time and money to get these flights operational, but it also I think requires some governmental funding, like the Transcontinental Railroad.” “I do not feel that sub-orbital flights offer much over high altitude flights.” “I would mostly be interested in an overnight stay in orbit.”
“If I do not need any special training to travel via a commercial jet, then I should not need it to travel into space.” “If I had to pick one, it would be the suborbital flight.” “Anything less than orbital flight does not quite get what you want most.” “It would be like living a science fiction movie.” “The longer the experience the better.” “To see the Moon up close and personal would be outta this world!” “I’d jump right in if a seat was reserved for me.”
“It’d be more than worth the risk.” “I would suggest you include interplanetary too.” “I’d vote for a stay in an orbital hotel or even an eco-dome on an asteroid.” “If not the Moon, then Mars!” “Dreams come true!” “I want to land on the Moon and Mars, and even Titan.” “I would prefer to land on the Moon and walk around, regardless of personal danger.” “Space training by itself does not seem as exciting as the other options.” “I would like to see Mars or other planets.” “If I’m going into space, I’m going as far as possible.” “Call me crazy, but how about going out a little farther, say to Mars and back, or even Jupiter? I know baby steps are crucial, but we might as well start thinking big now.” Cont’d
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“Would there be time spent in Earth orbit after the Moon adventure?” “A Moon landing should be a possibility.”
“We need more space tourism to drive down the launch cost, so we can get to Mars.” “Would prefer a lunar landing rather than just a circumlunar loop.” “A landing on the Moon would definitely be the thing to do.” “The Moon trip gives the most time in space.” “I would go as far as you could take me – to Mars and beyond!” “A flight of a lifetime.” “Would depend on a demonstrated safety record, and modest risk.” “It would be amazing.” “I do not see why I would go for a short 15 minute ballistic flight.” “All of them would be priceless! It is a different way to look at the world and see it for what it could be, one whole unit rather than all the fighting parts.”
“Beam me up Scotty!!! Warp speed ☺” “To the Moon, Alice…to the Moon! Suborbital flight might make a cool prize or gift, but don’t expect me to shell out my own money for such a trivial event. Spaceflight means to orbit, at least…” “Don’t know if I could still pass the physical, but what a way to go!” “To see the beauty of the Earth from space, that is the ultimate – to see the stars and planets without light pollution would be an added bonus.” “In going for any kind of trip into space there will always be some risk, so why not “go for the Moon” to make the most of the trip?” “I would never pass a physical….I have a spinal fusion and had a heart attack, but if there were a way to get me into space I would go to extremes to see the Earth as a total sphere with a background of stars.” Cont’d
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“Safety is a matter of opinion – I think once a person is informed of the risks it is a personal choice. The current prices are pretty high, though…” “I would be highly interested in docking with a space station/resort…” “While higher risk, if you are going to travel in space, you might as well go to the Moon.” “I was unable to be a pilot or astronaut because of my diabetes, but maybe….” “Nothing better than to get off this rock…”
“….an accident smashed my leg, and I was told I would never walk again – I would love to look down from orbit saying “Look at me now!”” “I have attended Space Camp – now I want to experience the real thing.” “I want to see the curvature of the Earth.” “I wish this had started 50 years ago – but at my age (65) I doubt if I would be able to meet the physical requirements.” “I would move to the Moon if the option was available.” “I want to feel what the astronauts felt back in the ‘60s and ‘70s.” “To go up there and look back from where so few have seen, it would be a life changing experience.” “How about landing on the Moon too?” “It has been a dream to travel in space and I would enjoy participation, so long as proper safety measures and training were done.”
“How could someone say “no” to any of them? :)” “The suborbital flight seems to be a poor compromise on an orbital flight.” “How far above the Moon’s surface would the flight be, and would it be equatorial or circumpolar?” “I love to sit by the window when flying on a clear day. The only way to take in the variety and beauty of the Earth is to study it from orbit.” Cont’d
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“I love all of the above! Keep up the good work!” “If money does not matter, I want to land on the Moon.” “I want to go further out…take me to Mars and Jupiter!” “Let’s go!” “I could do the lot – it would be mind boggling!” “Round the Moon would obviously be the ultimate, but they would all be amazing!”
“To experience any of the above things would be like a dream come true. I’m sure this goes for most people, unless you are afraid of flying, of course!” “Discomfort and safety issues would be limiting factors for my leaving LEO to go to the Moon.” “I want to see the Earth from space, but the idea of going to the Moon is not appealing.” “Going somewhere I never thought I could – round the Moon in particular – gives me shivers – but I have reached 55.” “Earth orbit would be my first choice – for the views.”
“Suborbital seems like a lot of trouble for only five minutes.” “For me, the real lures here are the adventures that actually take you into space.” “I would want to see the Earth rise over the Moon’s horizon.” “I don’t have the finances – I would definitely do it any way I could afford it, however the prices you list would not be affordable.” “How amazing would that be to tell your friends about your upcoming adventure? Anything to do with space just blows me away!” “The whole space thing appears scary, yet so intriguing!”
Cont’d
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“My dream was to be married in space, but I met the right guy already – If we could build a station on the Moon, I would want to be a pioneer and be among the first to move there- my husband feels the same way. We would even want to bring a child into the, well, off-world.” “To see my home planet from space is the stuff of my dreams.” “I’m deaf in one ear so I don’t have the balance needed for a flying adventure.” “A suborbital flight is too short to qualify as space travel for me.” “I’ll be the happiest man If I could fly in space – If I had a lot of money I’d be glad to get a ticket on Soyuz.” “That would be the ultimate vacation.” “I would like to do a Space Station Bed-n-Breakfast, too.”
“This stuff sounds great, sign me up!! I can’t wait…” “I hope one day (in the next 20 years) I get to experience space flight of some description.” “I’m ready for Mars, as soon as you are…” “I’ve always wanted to ride in a jet like in my favorite movie “Top Gun””. “The Moon is too much commitment in time, although, once there, would be awesome.”
“I’d make a lousy astronaut because I’d be looking out the window the whole time.” “I remember the excitement of seeing the sky through the plexiglass fuelers’ pit in a KC-135.” “It’s the view that is important. Microgravity would become a nuisance.” “I am longing for space training. Flying is more enjoyable than on land. Imagine what you will discover for the new world of space. It’s completely amazing.” “Learning about spaceflight gives training in Math, Physics, Geography…and helps know about the surrounding environment.” Cont’d
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“Like a cruise in the Caribbean, 7 days will provide a lifetime of memories.”
“Anywhere in space would be great – the farther the better the view.” “I’d like to personally see spaceship Earth from the outside.” “From the very beginning of the space program I have been interested in space flight – I still get choked up when I see a launching – There is something awesome about the power needed to lift man into space.” “Round the Moon would be most interesting, but suborbital is more realistic for me.”
“I’d risk everything for a trip to space, but all the prices are too high by at least a factor of ten.” “I would like to see space just once in my lifetime.” “Staying in a satellite or something for a couple of days…” “I am fascinated by space and am trying to intern at NASA…” “Still trying to get used to ordinary airline flights – nevertheless, I believe a suborbital hop would likely be tolerable for me. ☺” “Suborbital is probably the least expensive, but to really feel how it is you need to spend some time in space.”
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2. Comments related to Corporate Space Tourism (following Q 18)
Note that not everyone, who had provided comments in the opportunity following Question 1, decided to provide comments at this second invitation. Nevertheless there was still more than a 15% response at this opportunity. Some of the comments are particularly thoughtful, and raise important issues about how to pursue corporate space tourism opportunities. The introduction to this open comment opportunity talks about space as a prize, and whether it could be used as a business incentive, and whether the respondent would recommend such an idea within their company. Some of the responders were presumably influenced, too, by the subsequent question related to a space lottery. The numerical results of the analysis of responses to questions 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 were provided in Fig 22, 23 and 24 of the main report, and are arguably not as useful as the individual comments reported below, because the comments provide an indication as to why the tabulated results came out this way. In particular, they provide insight into some of the downsides of offering spacerelated incentives in a business setting. This is particularly important feedback, when one considers that these respondents to the survey are by nature risk-takers. They are already Adventurers, after all. Following are 140 responses, some of which are highlighted for extra attention:
“It’d have to be a wealthy company to offer it.” “Many employees would sell the prize for money.” “Liability.” “Insurance may make it prohibitive.” “Sounds like a great promo.”
“I would not want to put high-performing employees at risk.” “I believe it would be a fantastic opportunity and incentive for workers to strive to win. Production would go through the roof!”
“Such an incentive could help me sort out the dreamers from the mundane, the bold from the sheepish and the intelligent from the ordinary.” Cont’d
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“I’m in the technology business. A spaceflight would be the ULTIMATE tech incentive!” “What would be better would be a fund organization that provided something in space owned and enjoyed by all.”
“If my best employee died as a result of this award, my company would become a laughing stock.” “It’s not what we are used to. It doesn’t look like going on holidays.” “Lots of Laughs! Nope!”
“It’s not for everyone and so I wouldn’t want to use it to motivate or reward someone who isn’t interested- e.g. who doesn’t like flying.” “There are other challenges on Earth that have not been experienced by normal humans.” “The awardee would have to do billions of dollars of business before consideration.” “Will be good to let the part of the population who cannot now afford the trips experience, or hear about them from relatives, friends, for future business when prices do become more affordable.” “I am already saving my AMEX reward points for the next offering!” “Not likely in the near future.” “I’d consider offering it, but I think based on the percentage of revenue I’d be able to devote to paying for it, most of my customers would be geriatrics by the time they accumulated enough points!”
“Not until the risks are much more manageable. It will remain too easy to get sued if anything goes wrong for the foreseeable future.” “I’d take all the trips myself! – I’d be the one going!” “I don’t have a company worth that much…” “Nice quiz – it really makes a person think seriously about himself, his abilities, and decision making.” Cont’d
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“It would take too much effort.” “I would prefer not to leave it to chance if I could.” “Space travel is very expensive. Saving for a flight would be a major undertaking for the average citizen. A chance to go for free or very little would spike many people’s interest. I would offer the prize as a great public relations opportunity. Also, the company would benefit by more people attempting to win the space prize, as space travel proves more popular and safe.”
“You’d have to be sure that the majority of eligible employees were enthusiastic.” “Pick me please!” “I think the government could fund Project Constellation by raffling off crew assignments to the general public.” “My honeymoon was ruined by so-called “winners” aboard our cruise. Only people who can afford to go and are passionate enthusiasts should be allowed to participate.”
“I believe most companies would consider this too eccentric, and that the person who qualified for the incentive may very well not want to go. I would first survey the possible recipients to see what percentage of them would actually want to do this.” “Not just to anyone – there should be a lot of tests you must pass.” “That’s one helluva big bonus!” “I am going to start telling my company about it, so they keep it in mind!” “It would be too expensive for the company.” “Too early in its evolution – too specialized a prize (not enough universal interest).” “I would have trouble not just taking it for myself!”
“This would require additional safety considerations beyond what I would consider for my personal flight.” “Costs and liability would be prohibitive.” “Everyone courageous should get a chance to visit space.” Cont’d
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“As a corporate sponsor, the lack of track record and inherent risk would be too great to offer employees – if nothing else, the potential legal liability is too great at this time.” “Only when a safety record has been established. I would of course be willing to take a much greater personal risk than I would with potential clients.” “I believe that a dynamic workforce would welcome the chance of such a unique, challenging and exciting experience as being involved in a spaceflight.” “Too expensive for my small company.” “I would want the person to really want to go, and would not suggest to another person that they go.” “I am concerned about both the cost and the time involved.” “I’m not big on competitions – think we should all pay for what we want…” “I’m not sure everybody would appreciate such prizes.” “Absolutely perfect!” “A once in a lifetime trip – think of the masses of people that would be interested!” “I think a lot of people would only dream of such a prize, but to have it offered would be almost unreal.”
“I’d consider it a great incentive, but that may be because going into space is one of my dreams.” “Again, this is a great idea!” “And if the winner doesn’t want it, I will take the prize…” “Space would be the “ultimate prize” in my book.” “Talk about the ultimate incentive – but it would be unobtainable without throwing your entire life away in pursuit of the prize – not what any sane person is willing to do.” Cont’d
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“At present there is the chance that some of those applying might not meet the physical and mental tests which would be required. Eventually, though, it will be like flying commercial aircraft and most of those wanting to go into space would be able to.” “Safety would of course be more in play for this to happen.”
“Only if there are no training or physical requirements.” “A lottery is my only chance. If I’d listened to Denis Tito’s investment advice, I might have been able to afford a suborbital flight by now!”
“There would be some who would not want to go into space for fear or religious reasons.” “People who really want to go will go anyway – prize or not!” “It’s important to get normal folks to experience spaceflight and allow them to relay the experience, creating more demand, thus bringing costs down.” “Not in the near future, at least.” “Group discounts could be a possibility.”
“I hope some smart companies can jump on this! Space is the final frontier!! Space hotels, casinos, malls, spaceship dealers, …..wow!” “Suggest a TV reality show to select the winner.” “Yes, provided that I would have gone first!” “Sounds like the best prize I can think of!” “Not everyone is interested.” “My company would have to be rather large to afford it.”
“Too risky. The last thing you’d want to do is associate your company with a space disaster. There are safer ways to advertise.” Cont’d
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“The more you can get “the little guys” involved, the more real it will become to them.” “Many people would jump at the chance to actually participate.”
“That would get my contractors and referrers talking!” “I would be very worried about the safety of my personnel, since I would send my best.” “Only where the company would not share in liability if something went wrong.” “This should be heavily advertised to attract as many corporations as possible – not just in magazines, but on prime time TV as well.” “If I worked for a larger company I would offer the concept.” “What better prize is there than to go into space? That would be better than money or gold!” “If you were the first company to offer such things it would probably increase customer activity by 200%.” “The prize has a limited appeal – only to the adventurous.” “If a prize is offered it will be more along the lines of a complete space system with a booster.”
“The more exposure people get to such an incredible opportunity, the more money will be made available for future development and improvement to the technology available for such flights.” “Spaceflight will some day be the highest form of reward to business.” “I would consider it, after talking with the insurance company and the company lawyers.” “It would be a major incentive for workers.” “Too risky.”
Cont’d
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“Many people may find that the spaceflight may be too risky, and you would need everyone to buy into an incentive prize scheme.” “I have specific ideas of how this should be done, and specific ideas of what type of companies and institutions can benefit as well as aid in sustaining the concept, I know such endeavors require capital and it is the American Way, but I don’t think the adventure into space should be too gimmicky like silly “reality game shows”. I think it should be done thoughtfully, with a seriousness of purpose, which fosters continuous inspiration for all those who follow. I also realize that it cannot be too staid or boring, that it needs a little more populist attitude than NASA has been able to provide. But space is not for the stupid or the foolish.”
“I do not believe that spaceflight appeals to wide demographic groups enough to justify its selection as a company incentive.” “It would have to be an option for them, as not all people would like to go.”
“It would be the ultimate adventure, but should include a spouse.” “Our company is too small to offer that as a prize.”
“Do all that it takes to grow, and promote moving humanity into space!” “Too pricey. Too much liability.”
“You’d lose your shirt if something went wrong and a customer or employee got killed.” “I’m sure insurance and liability issues would rear their ugly heads when a publicly owned company offered space flights as incentives or prizes.” “Flight lottery is a great idea. I would buy every week. Can’t win if you don’t get in!” “You’d have to be president of a large corporation that grosses millions of dollars a year to be able to afford this reward.” “A once in a lifetime trip – anyone who refused it would be in definite need of care in the community!” “I don’t trust lotteries.”
“The amount of free press and TV time would more than justify the cost..” Cont’d
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“In addition to attracting potential customers, this would be great for publicity.”
“It wouldn’t be for everyone – but I suspect that those that would go are employees that I would want to know better, as they are operating in new territory and are perhaps future leaders.” “I don’t want to blow up one of my customers!” “How much would Lloyds of London charge to insure the flight?”
“If this sort of prize/gift does not inspire someone to perform better at their job, or try to hit set targets, then should they really be working for you?” “How about a savings program whose earned interest becomes the downpayment on a future spaceflight? Fly now, pay later on the remainder, like on a mortgage or college loan.” “Only as an option, as it would only be a motivating reward for some people.” “Yes, I would, considering it would be an ultimate prize for many of my peers from this Star Treck/Star Wars generation.” “I think it would be a great incentive.” “I would offer one of these prizes on behalf of my company just to show people what they are missing out on, because it saddens me when I have a conversation with anyone who does not feel as strongly about these amazing achievements as I do.” “This is the ultimate incentive, so it would be a great motivator.” “I own a small business but prices are still way too high for now.” “It would be a fantastic incentive.” “The reward would bring more attention to the industry, and spark more interest.” “It would be great to be able to earn spaceflight points by collecting one billion points on a credit card.”
“Think about the team-building possibilities of the prize!” “If the numbers add up.” Cont’d
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“Probably not if I ran a conservative company, but yes if a young hip Internet company.” “I work for an aerospace company and that would be a great incentive.” “The company is not big enough to offer these sorts of prize.” “I am a Principal in a small rural school. Incentives for us include cookies at lunch, and free movies!” “Better than Disneyland!”
“Why not? This is the ultimate experience – how do you top that?” “Space travel is certainly not for the faint of heart, but it’s the greatest adventure yet. A lottery offering a space adventure would gain a lot of free publicity from coverage, especially the first couple to do it. I would certainly be willing to buy a $500 ticket for a chance to go in orbit…” “Not able to make that kind of company decision.”
“My company is indeed already offering such a venture – eSpaceTickets.com.” “Spaceflight is unobtainable for most at the moment, hence it makes a great prize.” “I wouldn’t know if there would be enough demand for the promotion to be useful.” “Depends on cost.” “A lot depends on the day.” “It would get people out of their seats with excitement – make them wake up and be alive!”
“Space is a great prize, but seems exclusive. How are teachers, artists and inventors going to get out there with this kind of contest?” “A lot of my employees would not be able to qualify – heart problems, etc.” “For the chance to win a free space trip, I’d buy things I did not even want or need!”
“I would take any amount of risk personally to go to space, but I would be uneasy about the liabilities in offering something that dangerous to other people.” Cont’d
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“If people are too scared to fly, then it wouldn’t make much of an incentive, would it?”
“It would require time off work to prepare that may not be feasible for the company.” “What better way to motivate employees than with an amazing reward at year end?”
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3. Comments related to previous adventure sports experience (following Q 26)
The following extra adventure sports were added by respondents, in a free comment opportunity, reflecting their prior experience in adventure. It is remarkable how many such activities are offered and indeed have been experienced by the respondents to this survey. Some of them have a keen sense of humor, too (see the italicized responses)! The formulation to the open comment opportunity was to ask for any additional adventures, or adventure sports, that the respondents had already tried, and which were not included in the original list of five of its adventures that the company Incredible Adventures had opted to include for the numerical part of the survey form, viz: Skydiving Fighter Jet Flight Zero Gravity Flight Mountain Climbing Car Racing It should be noted that these respondents are clearly very proud of their involvement in these activities. It can be expected, therefore, that space tourism experience will be something that participants will discuss freely once they have returned from a trip. There was, moreover, much more repetition with this question than with the other two. Some responses, such as scuba, skiing, whitewater rafting, and bungee jumping had maybe a dozen or more responses, but no exact tally was kept. From a marketing standpoint, it would seem that the list provided here does represent some valuable insights into places where potential space tourists can be found. The following 78 additional experiences were provided by the respondents. Clearly this list underlines the fact that the respondents to The Adventurersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Survey are no strangers to risk (which makes some of their comments in Appendix D section 2 above all the more interesting). Again, the order does not reflect the frequency of responses, and is essentially random. Scuba/skin diving Roller Coaster enthusiast Truck racing Motorcycle racing/ Drag racing Spelunking/ Cave Diving Snow skiing White water rafting Parasailing Air racing Contâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d
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Mountain bike road racing Bungee jumping Base jumping Sailplane/Glider flying/Soaring Paint Ball High Power Rocketry Jet Ski/ Jet boating Work on active volcanoes Aerobatics Snowboarding Rock climbing/abseiling/rappelling White water Kayaking/ Rafting Ocean yacht racing/Island hopping “A deployment to Iraq!” Motocross Private Pilot Microlight aircraft Paragliding/Hang Gliding Powered parachute Motor Rallying Motorcycle Stunt Riding Drag racing “Marriage!” Street Luge Go-Kart racing Bull Fighting/Bull Riding 48 Hour D & D Marathon Offroad 4X 4 “Helped Raise two Daughters!” Sea Kayaking/canoeing Submarine adventures Distance swimming “Ambulance driver!” Quad biking Power Lifting Cliff Diving Wind Surfing Aircombat/Dogfighting adventure
Cont’d
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“Married with children!” Robot Games Space Camp Water Skiing Swimming with Whales/Sharks Eco-Tourism/Wildlife Treks Hot air ballooning Helicopter rides Deep Sea Diver Stunt Driver Luge/Bobsledding Long Distance/Marathon “Nurse in 1100 inmate jail!” Dog sledding Jousting “The stock market!” Rope climbing “Poker Dice!” Downhill Mountain-biking Roller Derby “Life itself is an adventure!” Arctic/Antarctic/Extreme wilderness adventure Gymnastics “Navy SEALS….Enough said!” Zorbing Horse racing “Driving America’s freeways/ Truck driver in Chicago downtown loop!” Jungle Tracking/Rattlesnake hunts/Canyoning Civil Air Patrol/Search and Rescue
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Contact Information For copies of this report, or to obtain clarification of any of its contents, please contact Derek Webber at: Derek Webber Spaceport Associates 5909 Rolston Road Bethesda, MD 20817 USA (301) 493 2550 DWspace@aol.com http://www.SpaceportAssociates.com
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Collection of Derek Webber
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