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34 pages of coverage CHRIS LEE • CLEE@POST-DISPATCH.COM

Fowler gives them a weapon at leadoff on a club that has plenty to prove this season

CARDS SWING INTO A NEW ERA

Sunday • 04.02.2017 • SECTION S


S2 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

BASEBALL PREVIEW

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017

SOMETHING TO PROVE

Cards have extra motivation going into this season

BY DERRICK GOOLD St. Louis Post-Dispatch

W

JUPITER, FLA.

ith his dirtsmeared Cardinals jersey on and eye black streaking down his cheeks, Matt Carpenter sat at his locker, kicked out his feet and surveyed the team’s empty spring training clubhouse. An hour after his four RBIs in another crisp victory, some fresh jerseys had been hung with care and all of his teammates had left for the day. A presence remained. “I’ve thought about this a lot,” Carpenter said, leaning forward and pointing toward individual lockers. “I see these guys, each of them in this room, and think there is so much motivation around us. There’s the extra motivation of not making the postseason last year; that’s No. 1. Then I look around this room and individually — think about it. Lance Lynn, hitting free agency. Adam Wainwright, trying to prove last year wasn’t him. Mike Leake, trying to prove last year wasn’t him either. Extra motivation. Kolten Wong, trying to prove it’s his job. Randal Grichuk, proving it’s his job. Aledmys Diaz, trying to prove he’s an everyday shortstop. It’s all over. There are just so many extra layers here of individual motivation. “For me, that all adds up to a dangerous team,” he said. “There is a purpose. There is an edge about us. I am out to prove — whatever it is. I am out to prove people wrong. I’m out to prove myself. I’m out to prove my worth. I am out to prove …” He paused. “I just want to win,” he said. “I am out to prove last year was a fluke. I want to take that trend that we’ve been headed on and move it back in the other direction.” As the Cardinals open their 125th anniversary season in the National League on Sunday at Busch Stadium, that trend pays a house call. The Cardinals will face the World Series-winning Chicago Cubs on opening day, as they did the last year their rivals were reigning champs, in 1909. It will be Mike Matheny’s first opening night at home, and his first after a fall without a playoff appearance. The trend Carpenter wants to turn around is the team’s October recession: NL pennant in 2013, NL championship series loss in 2014, division series loss in 2015, and at home, stewing about what went awry in 2016. In opening remarks to the club this spring, Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. used the anniversary of the Cardinals’ entry into the National League in 1892 to illustrate the club’s history and its 11 championships. The past is always present around the Cardinals. But last summer’s transition and 86-win team meant a new message: The future is now. When the Cardinals take the field for the first inning Sunday in front a national broadcast audience, Carlos Martinez, not Wainwright, will be on the mound, and Grichuk, not Matt Holliday, will be in left field. “It’s a refreshing of the club,” DeWitt said. “This is what the new face of the Cardinals is going to look like — a Carpenter, a (Stephen) Piscotty, a Grichuk, a Carlos Martinez,” said general manager John Mozeliak, who augmented that homegrown group with free-agent center fielder Dexter Fowler. “You can only have the label of prospect for so long. I think in the end we are always going to be defined by wins and losses. In other words, if you develop players but stay a .500 club, that’s not good enough. When you think about this year, it can no longer be deemed a

transition year or an experimental year. You either do or you don’t.” There have been challengers to the division throne before. Popup coups, from time to time. Houston’s uprising from 2001 to 2005 included dueling the Cardinals in two consecutive NLCS. When the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, the Astros orbited .500 and then spiraled to 56-106 in 2011. The Cubs stirred and slumbered; the Reds did too, twice. The Brewers won the division in 2011 but could not oust the Cardinals in the NLCS. When the Cardinals won another pennant in 2013, the Brewers were 23 games back. Rivals rise. Rivals retreat. The Cardinals are the constant. Since 2000, the Cardinals have averaged 91.2 wins a season. No other division team has averaged a winning record. The last team to win a World Series from the Cardinals’ division was the 1986 Mets, until along came the 2016 Cubs. It’s been generations since the Cardinals have faced a threat like the Cubs to an iron hold on the throne. Hear them roar. “It does seem like they’re different because the Cubs are in a different financial situation compared to the Reds and Brewers,” said former Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday, who reached six postseasons and won four division titles in 7½ years with the Cardinals. “The thing about the Cubs is they’ve got young players and they can afford to keep them if they want, and they can afford to add free agents if they want with big contracts. I don’t see them slowing down any time soon.” The usurpers have “changed the landscape of competition,” Mozeliak agreed, by having “a different set of resources than the traditional Central.” The Cubs used a string of fifth-place finishes to nourish their farm system with high draft picks like 2016 MVP Kris Bryant and big bopper Kyle Schwarber. They stripmined the roster to acquire players like shortstop Addison Russell and starter Jake Arrieta. Then the Cubs spent lavishly on opening day starter Jon Lester and outfielder Jason Heyward. The Cubs aimed to end their cursed drought — but not with one title. They wanted a reign like their archrival’s. “The Cardinals are the standard for that sustained success in the game, and there is no reason that is going to change,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said. “We won 2016 and it took until the 10th inning of Game 7 after a rain delay to do it. You can’t build for that. You can’t build to have one or two shots at it. You have to build to sustain, year in and year out. … When 86 wins is a disappointing season, you’re in an awesome place as a franchise.” Echoed DeWitt: “If you just try to win the winter and let the summer take care of itself, that’s a recipe for failure, in my opinion. Making a big splash for a ‘window’? I don’t really believe in windows. We want to be good year in, year out. The key through the years, when you talk about the 125 years, is successful Cardinals teams were built. They weren’t bought.” To upgrade for 2017, the Cardinals did borrow from the Cubs. A year after the Cubs signed former Cardinals Heyward and John Lackey, the Cardinals landed Cubs leadoff hitter Fowler with a fiveyear, $82.5 million contract. Fowler personified what the Cardinals want to be: reliable on defense, athletic, and an onbase percentage monster. Last year’s Cardinals were uncharacteristically flawed, a deviation from the club’s rep. The Cardinals led the NL with 225 home runs, but meandering defense, poor baserunning and erratic pitching

Carpenter

Mozeliak

Fowler

Wainwright

proved overpowering. The Cardinals and five other teams scored at least 100 more runs in 2016 than in 2015. The other five, including the Cubs, averaged a 10-win improvement, according to ESPN research. The Cardinals had a 14-win plummet. Since 1900, six teams scored at least 100 more runs than the previous season and finished at least 10 wins worse, according to STATS LLC. Only the 19992000 Astros’ 25-game setback was a greater slide than the Cardinals’ 14. Pitching and defense proved costly: The starters’ ERA spiked from 2.99 to 4.13, the largest jump in baseball. “We had 86 wins and we didn’t pitch worth a dang,” Wainwright said. “I think it’s going to be a renaissance of sorts. It’s going to be a strength.” It will certainly be a compass. Mozeliak said the hallmarks of this team, by design, must be run prevention, pitching and OBP. With Fowler atop the order, Carpenter moves down, and the Cardinals have two of the better leadoff hitters in the game batting first and third. Wedge Diaz in between and the trio had a .381 combined OBP in 2016. A 100-RBI season awaits whoever emerges at cleanup. The return of Lynn and a healthy Michael Wacha link with Leake to give the Cardinals an assembly line of quality starts. That has to be the engine of how they contend. The defense is the chassis. Entering spring training, Matheny was struck by the “ownership” returning Cardinals took of the ragged play in 2016. The coaching staff responded by opening up time in spring training for players to pursue areas they wanted to correct. The result was a “fresh feel” to camp and crisper, record-setting spring wins. Fundamental improvements are essential. With only one significant change in personnel, the way to change results is to change their style of play, to change the production from returning players. That’s what they all have to prove. “It doesn’t seem to be a popular response but we were dealing with young players,” Matheny said. “It’s definitely one of those years when it’s time to step up. That’s the big ask. … I think they’re hungry. That’s a characteristic I’d like to see. Urgency is a characteristic. I want to see clean. I want to see consistent. I want to see improved.” Before his first big-league camp with the Cardinals, Carpenter swung by a bookstore. He bought a copy of Buzz Bissinger’s “Three Nights in August” to learn more about Tony La Russa and the Cardinals. The author of “Friday Night Lights” uses a 2003 series between the Cubs and Cardinals as the backbone for an exploration of managing a club. The book helped Carpenter prepare for the personalities and pressure, and the idea of a late, meaningful series against the Cubs was exhilarating on the page. Imagine on the field! He was a regular for the Cardinals and a resident of October before what he read was a reality. In 2015, the team that had been running behind — “Always chasing the Cardinals, the Cardinals, the Cardinals,” Fowler said — caught Carpenter & Co. In 2016, the Cubs raced ahead. It’s the Cardinals’ turn to catch up. “This is what we have to prove,” Carpenter said. “We have to prove we’re just as good.” There’s one way to do that. “It’s easy,” Fowler grinned, from experience. “You’ve just got to beat them.” Derrick Goold @dgoold on Twitter dgoold@post-dispatch.com

Cardinals chairman and principal owner Bill DeWitt Jr., with manager Mike Matheny standing behind him, addresses the team Feb. 17 in Jupiter, Fla. PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Lynn


BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • Sunday • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S3

LINEUP VS. LINEUP BY DERRICK GOOLD AND RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

ALL-TIME LINEUP

1. LOU BROCK LF

2. ROGERS HORNSBY 2B

3. STAN MUSIAL RF

4. ALBERT PUJOLS 1B

5. KEN BOYER 3B

6. WILLIE MCGEE CF

7. YADIER MOLINA C

8. OZZIE SMITH SS

9 BOB GIBSON P

7. RANDAL GRICHUK LF

8. KOLTEN WONG 2B

9. CARLOS MARTINEZ P

2017 CARDINALS LINEUP

1. DEXTER FOWLER CF

2. ALEDMYS DIAZ SS

3. MATT CARPENTER 1B

4. JHONNY PERALTA 3B

5. STEPHEN PISCOTTY RF

6. YADIER MOLINA C

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S5

KOLTEN CONUNDRUM Wong needs to get on base to play and needs to play to get on base

didn’t happen. And tomorrow is a new day. I’ve really taken that to heart.� There’s some pressure from upstairs to play Wong. The Cards signed him to a long-term deal. The Cards held on to him this offseason. The Cards’ general manager, John Mozeliak, has said in the past that he’s “bullish� on Wong. But it isn’t like Wong is Mike Matheny himself. Tony La Russa said in his book that Matheny could bat .000, but the skipper would still play him, because Matheny was so important to the pitching staff. Wong has to get on base and be somewhat relevant offensively. But he’ll say he needs to play every day to get into his groove. And his manager is prone to playing producing players. So, yeah, this will be interesting again. “When you think about how we’re trying to build the club,� Mozeliak said, “one of the factors I thought was important was how we thought about defense — and specifically, how we defended ground balls. The overarching theme was athleticism and defense. Signing (Dexter) Fowler, moving (Randal) Grichuk over and having (Stephen) Piscotty in the outfield, we felt like we accomplished that. Infield was a little different, because that became more of an internal solution, having Kolten Wong, someone we believe can be an elite defensive player, be given that opportunity. “... You certainly could argue that Kolten is key to that infield defense.� Just how good of a fielder is Wong? Last season, he ranked No. 7 in baseball in two telling defensive categories, ultimate zone rating and defensive rating on Fangraphs.com (minimum 600 innings played). He’s a zippy double-play disher and an acrobat at that. “I’ve always been a fan of baseball and admiring players who have good abilities — and he’s on the top of the list,� Cards outfielder Jose Martinez said. “I come from Venezuela, a country that has a lot of good infielders, but it’s fun to watch him. Last year, every day it was something to watch out of him. And you have to pay attention, because there were so many plays that were — wow. “The way I see it, he plays hard and gives everything for the team. If he’s not hitting, he’s going to do everything he can to help the team.� But he needs to do some hitting to get a chance to help the team with his defense. The Kolten conundrum.

BENJAMIN HOCHMAN St. Louis Post-Dispatch

W

JUPITER, FLA.

hen they talk about the back fields here, it sounds like it’s this mysterious place. It’s as if regular, proper baseball is played at Roger Dean Stadium, but on the back fields at the Cardinals’ complex, that’s like a laboratory where mad scientists cook up all sorts of baseball crazy. Back fields are where first baseman Matt Adams learns to play left field. Or left fielder Matt Holliday once learned to play first. Or where big-league hurlers try out pitches in simulated games against prospects. “Kolten and Ollie,� Cardinals coach David Bell shared, “they are working on some pretty neat things. It’s pretty fun to watch.� Kolten Wong and coach Oliver Marmol will slip out to the back fields, and Wong won’t bring his regular glove. Instead, he brings a Rawlings GG95T – this tiny glove that looks like a second grader’s, not a bigleague second baseman’s. It fits more like a mitten than a mitt, just barely bigger than Wong’s left hand. “And he’ll just rifle balls,� Wong said. “And I’ll just try to make every play I can, backhand, forehand or right at me. You’ve got to make sure you catch the ball — you can’t let the glove catch it, because it’s literally the size of your hand. “And I try to make every play that he hits to me as routine. So when a routine play (actually) comes, it’s just secondnature.� Wong yearns to have his glove become golden. And club executives yearn for the 2017 Cards to be more athletic and improved defensively. In some respects, Wong will be the barometer of the team’s success. If he’s contributing with confident, hit-snatching defense — and if he’s keeping Cards pitchers in the game longer — then the Cards should be good. That, of course, means Wong will have to actually be in the games to do so. Wong’s curious spring caused consternation. In the final week of games, he was hitting under .200. A key part to Wong’s potential success is just finding ways to get on base. He’s

BENJAMIN HOCHMAN • bhochman@post-dispatch.com

Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong displays the tiny glove he uses during practice to sharpen his fielding skills.

the Cardinals’ No. 8 hitter, so he can flip the lineup by not ending innings. Wong should walk. But this spring he entered the final week with just four bases on balls. And Wong should steal. Again, entering the last week he had swiped one base while getting caught stealing three times. His baserunning blunders sometimes remind one of the worst memory of them all: Game 4 of the 2013 World Series. So as we head into the season, a good Wong can epitomize the Cards; a bad Wong can paralyze them. I’ve often said that this guy, who’s a sports psychologist’s dream patient, should get to play through his offensive slumps. He’s too important with his glove. But even I’ll admit there has to be

a line. Perhaps the Mendoza line. Even that’s probably too low. “The thing is, man, I’ve always put pressure on myself to try and be something great,� Wong said in a quiet moment in mid-March. “Instead of understanding that if I’m going to be great, it’s going to happen. This year, I was driving myself nuts over that. The expectations — I hold myself to a higher standard than people might perceive. And that’s why I’m so hard on myself. For me, it’s just about letting it come. “Where I was wrong (in the past), I would let an error or a bad game affect me not just that night, but the next day. Instead of saying — you know what, I’m human. I did everything I could to put myself in a good situation, and it just

Benjamin Hochman @hochman on Twitter bhochman@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S6 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017

THEY GO, CARDS GO

Fowler and Carpenter give Redbirds two modern-day leadoff hitters

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

The Cardinals’ Dexter Fowler (left) and Matt Carpenter run between bases in a drill during spring training at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla. BY DERRICK GOOLD St. Louis Post-Dispatch

O

JUPITER, FLA.

ther than slow-footed, tubatoting backup catcher Bob Uecker, who never stole a base in his big-league career, Cardinals manager Johnny Keane had no volunteers when he held a clubhouse meeting and asked for a leading man to step forward. In 1964, Keane’s team lagged behind the pace set by the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Keane believed the difference was LA’s leadoff hitter, Maury Wills. On his way to a league-best 53 steals that summer and 94 steals the next year, Wills and his thieving feet had reimagined the leadoff role, turning it from a parade of walkers to a swarm of runners. Keane wanted a Wills. He looked past Uecker’s offer to a newcomer in the clubhouse. The fleet-footed former Cub would do. If he wanted to play, Keane told Lou Brock, “then you will steal bases.” This was before the days of easy-bake, Tshirt slogans, but the message that day in the clubhouse was clear. Lou go, we go. “That was the prerequisite: steal bases, be on the team,” Brock recalled a few springs ago, explaining to a reporter about his reluctance. “The stolen base was an animal that implied you are a one-dimensional player.” Little did he know what he was about to launch, or how it would lead to today’s Cardinals and their plan to reinvigorate the 2017 lineup around two elite leadoff hitters. Brock outran Wills all the way to Cooperstown, and the Cardinals’ Hall of Famer still holds the National League single-season and career records for steals. While pressed into the leadoff style of the time, Brock never settled for one dimension. He became the first player in baseball with at least 20 homers and 50 steals in the same season, and his on-base percentage rose as he aged. He mentored a young Rickey Henderson, who would revolutionize the top spot with power and speed baseball toward an era when nontraditional leadoff hitters thrive. Sprinters and waterbugs gave way to mashers and now multitaskers. Twelve of the top 15 slugging percentages from a leadoff hitter in history have come since 2000. For the third consecutive year in 2016, baseball’s leadoff hitters had a higher average slugging percentage and OPS than the rest of the lineup. The top three career OPS batters from the leadoff spot all have played in the past decade, and No. 3 Matt Carpenter (.871) has been the Cardinals’ best all-around hitter since 2013. True to the “You Go, We Go” mantra he and the Cubs had on T-shirts, Dexter Fowler led off Game 7 of last fall’s World Series not with a bunt … or a walk … or a single … but a 406-foot home run. That one-dimensional player Brock feared becoming rarely exists in a spot more and more complete hitters are calling home. Table setters? Try tone setters. “Like the third or fourth hitter of a club needs to be the face of the franchise, I feel like the leadoff hitter should be the one, really,” said Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, who led off for the American League All-Star team nine times from

2001 to 2010. He spoke through an interpreter, Allan Turner. “You’re the one going up there to start the game. You set the tone for the game. I feel it’s a guy who when they get on base something is going to happen. Something. There is that aura about (a leadoff hitter) that you don’t want this guy on the bases, you don’t want this guy up because stuff will happen.”

FROM CARP … There was no clubhouse meeting, no request for volunteers, and not even a sit down in the manager’s office. The way Carpenter recalls 2013, his move to leadoff just “boom” happened. One day he was batting sixth, rapping two doubles and a tiebreaking RBI single against the Cincinnati Reds and the next, May 2, 2013, he was batting leadoff. Boom. With Carpenter at leadoff, the Cardinals went 78-53 from there, finished with the best record and most runs in the NL, and he ignited with a .400 on-base percentage and an .882 OPS. He was hit by more pitches (eight) in that stretch than he had steals (three), and there was a time when he wondered if he lacked the dimension needed to bat first. “I even fell into the trap that most people fall into,” Carpenter said. “When you think of a leadoff hitter, you think of a guy who can really run, steal bases, and you just kind of stick that short little fast guy at the top of the lineup. Once I got into the big leagues and pro ball I realized you just really need a guy who can get on base up there. The game has just moved to the point where if you don’t get on base, you’ve got to do something else really well or you’re not going to have a job.” In 1967, Brock and his league-leading 52 steals and 113 runs pointed the Cardinals toward a World Series title. Twenty years later, leadoff hitter Vince Coleman, the Cardinals’ Brock reboot, led the league with 109 steals and pushed the Cardinals to an NL pennant. Thirty years after that, in 2017, the Cardinals still see their leadoff hitter as a fuse — but in a more modern manner. After a power-mad 2016, the Cardinals are returning to OBP, and rather than stick with one of the better leadoff hitters in the league, they’ve added a second. Since 2013, Carpenter tops all NL leadoff hitters with a .386 OBP. Second is the guy bumping him down in the order, Fowler, at .369. “You would rather have the guy most likely to get on first base at the top, and I think the evolution is more people are thinking that way,” said Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak, who wooed freeagent Fowler with a five-year, $82.5-million contract. “You could argue, (Fowler’s) a blend. He’s a modern leadoff. He can grind at-bats, gets on base. He can take an extra base. Fowler is sort of the quintessential — he’s a little bit of both. He’s a lot of on-base with a touch of the speed. He’s a threat.” The stereotype of the leadoff hitter

traces back to “Sliding” Billy Hamilton, a Hall of Famer from the 19th century who led the league in walks five times and steals five times. Max “Camera Eye” Bishop walked 20 percent of the time he came to the plate, and decades of leadoff hitters followed in those footsteps until Wills. He and Brock popularized larceny at leadoff. When Brock met a young Henderson he told the future “Man of Steal” that it wasn’t enough to be able to swipe a base, he had to be fearless and “really want it.” Henderson “was kind of out of the mold,” former teammate Don Mattingly said this spring. “He could hit a ball out of the ballpark at any time. Really just a power guy but he was traditional from the standpoint that he got on base and then he caused action. He changed the game up there.” In 2,886 career games at leadoff, Henderson reached base 5,254 times. The next closest is Pete Rose, at 4,042. Henderson is the only player to steal more than a thousand bases, no one has ever scored more runs, and he’s in any discussion for greatest player ever, along with immortals like Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. The only leadoff hitter who compares was a contemporary, Tim “Rock” Raines. Raines will finally join Henderson in Cooperstown this summer, but their influence on the game remains. Managers like Tony La Russa had to figure out how to slow them down — and did with run defenses still in play today. Combined with the modern view that steal attempts are rarely worth the risk, improved run defense has put the brakes on. In 2001, Brock told The Associated Press “the leadoff man has become extinct as we used to define him.” This past year, 13 hitters had enough atbats at leadoff to qualify for the batting title and 11 of them had fewer than 20 steals. Two had zero in a combined 403 times on base. “It’s kind of tough for guys to get on base and steal when you’ve got Yadier Molina back there and he’s going to throw you out half the damn time,” said former MVP Dustin Pedroia, who is back to being Boston’s leadoff hitter. “From playing defense, there is a different type of at-bat when you have a power guy coming up. You know what they’re trying to do. When you have a leadoff guy now who can essentially do both — and these guys can — their at-bats are different. I can’t shift them. They’ll just hit a single.” Laced throughout the recent history of leadoff hitters were hints of what’s to come. Before there were boppers like Brady Anderson and Alfonso Soriano, there were OPS options like Mike Hargrove and Brian Downing. Rose hit leadoff, slapping singles everywhere. Wade Boggs hit leadoff on his way to 3,000 hits, and so did Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio, one of the mightiest mights of the Moneyball era. This year, the Cubs are going with young fireplug slugger Kyle Schwarber at leadoff. The Book, which dove deep into lineup structure, calculated leadoff comes up approximately 146 more times over the course of a 162-game schedule than the No. 9 hitter. Might as well give those extra chances to someone who will make the most of them. As lineup dynamics were dissected and stealing suppressed, the leadoff hitters reached base, had ambush power, scored

from first on a double, and could work counts. Essentially, No. 2 hitters became No. 1. “I never led off a game in my life until I got to the major leagues,” said Minnesota manager and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, who had 1,953 of his 3,319 hits from leadoff. “I didn’t even know what on-base percentage was when I was 21. I was not maybe a very good choice other than the fact I could run, I could do some things. I didn’t appreciate walks or working the counts or any of those things. I kind of began to understand that role the more I (was) in it. The value you can bring to our team. … Guys changed the mold a little bit.”

… TO DEX With a yellow Wiffle Ball bat in his hand, Fowler was 5 or 6 years old when he learned the strike zone in the family’s garage. His father, John, would toss tennis balls to the Fowler brothers, Wesley and Dexter, and urge them to be choosy. “If it’s not a strike, don’t swing,” Dexter recalled his dad saying. “I took that to heart. You can put balls in play, but there are eight defenders out there trying to get you out. The odds are against you. Walk and they can’t do anything.” A walk is only a beginning. The modern major leadoff hitter is not just pesky, but picky. Fowler led all leadoff hitters last season with 79 walks. Second was Carpenter, at 73. Carpenter saw more pitches per plate appearance (4.21) than any other leadoff hitter — except Fowler (4.41). By putting them in the same lineup, separated by No. 2 hitter Aledmys Diaz, the Cardinals intend to benefit from the multifaceted approach of a No. 1. For 13 consecutive years, baseball’s leadoff hitters have, naturally, had a higher on-base percentage than the rest of the lineup. In eight of the last 10 years, leadoff hitters have had a better OPS than the other spots, and in the past three a better slugging percentage, too. Fowler and Carpenter are well above average in all three. “I try to get on base at least two times a game, any way I can,” Fowler said. “It’s not just that I feel like I can, I feel like it’s a feasible goal. It adds to it if you’re able to hit for power, steal bases, the whole nine. A good leadoff hitter is someone who gets on base. A lot. That’s the starter.” In short: As he goes, the lineup goes. That was the message Cubs manager Joe Maddon gave Fowler before every atbat. On his way out of the clubhouse recently, Fowler stopped, briefly, to explain the true origin of the four-word phrase that defines his approach to leadoff. Maddon started it, and said it so often that it was eventually shortened. But the first dozen times it was simple: “You go, we go.” Fowler wasn’t the first to hear it. He wasn’t the first to do it. “We made it legendary,” Fowler said with a grin as he walked out the door. And then he was gone. Derrick Goold @dgoold on Twitter dgoold@post-dispatch.com


BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • Sunday • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S7

FIRSTS IN THEIR CLASS BY DERRICK GOOLD • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Their nicknames say almost as much about the role as the statistics do. From “Sliding Billy” Hamilton to “Base Burglar” Lou Brock and the “Man of Steal” Rickey Henderson, leadoff hitters have been known for their ability to get on base – and then take one. The role, however, has changed with the game, though fittingly at a more rapid pace. Power has come, OPS has taken over, and even in some cases one of the signature traits of leadoff – grand theft – has been sacrificed for the king of everything, on-base percentage. Starting with the player who essentially created the leadoff ideal, here are five leading men who changed how the game looks at the top of the order, including the No. 1 every leadoff hitter will forever be chasing.

BILLY HAMILTON

MAURY WILLS

RICKEY HENDERSON

ALFONSO SORIANO

CRAIG BIGGIO

Years active • 1888-1901 Teams • Kansas City Cowboys, Phillies, Boston Beaneaters Hall of Fame • 1961 Although his statistics have been revised over time, there’s little doubt that Hall of Famer “Sliding Billy” launched the notion of a speedy, even undersized leadoff hitter that persists today. He ignited an archetype. A former sprinter, the 5-foot-6 outfielder led his league in walks five times, steals five times and twice had 100 steals and 100 walks in the same season. His .455 career on-base percentage is gaudy and a sign of the times he played in, but his 192 single-season runs in 129 games has never been challenged as a record. The next closest was Babe Ruth’s 177, the modern record. Hamilton set the stage for the great walkers who followed: Eddie Joost, Max Bishop and Eddie Yost. The latter two trail only Rickey Henderson in walks from leadoff.

Years active • 1959-1972 Teams • Dodgers, Pirates, Expos Others would come along and do it better – famously, Cardinals’ speed king, 3,000-hit whiz and Hall of Famer Lou Brock – but Wills was the first burner out of the blocks. From 1960 to 1965, Wills led the National League in steals, and in 1962 he ran away with the MVP award as a leadoff hitter with 104 steals, 208 hits and 130 runs. He created havoc and inspired copycats while finishing with a modest .330 on-base percentage and .661 OPS. Only four times in his career did he have a slugging percentage higher than his on-base percentage. Wills gave rise to go-go leadoff hitters and all the waterbugs who followed, like Vince Coleman, Otis Nixon, Brett Butler, and, more recently, Juan Pierre.

Years active • 1979-2003 Teams • Athletics, Yankees, Padres, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners and Blue Jays Hall of Fame • 2009 When he sped past Brock’s career record for stolen bases in 1991, Henderson graciously thanked a few managers, nodded toward Brock and then declared, memorably: “Today, I’m the greatest of all time.” He really already was. Henderson could do everything a leadoff hitter always had and more – and do it all better than any previous leadoff hitter ever. Henderson hit for power (81 leadoff homers, a record), stole bases (1,406, a record), and scored runs (2,295, a record). He was on base 5,254 times as a leadoff hitter. The next closest: Pete Rose, at 4,042. Rose and Paul Molitor certainly helped reshape how leadoff looked, but the only other hitter in Henderson’s elite class is Tim “Rock” Raines. They’ll meet in Cooperstown this summer.

Years active • 1999-2014 Teams • Yankees, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs In his second full season in the majors, the whippy-strong Soriano led the American League in runs (128), hits (209) and steals (41), but it was a few other categories that hinted at how he’d rewrite the leadoff spot. Soriano had 102 RBIs and 157 strikeouts. Four of the top five single-season home run totals from a leadoff spot in history belong to Soriano, who was unapologetic about his eagerness to hit and run hard. Other leadoff hitters of his era brought thump (Brady Anderson), speed (Jose Reyes), and a blend (Kenny Lofton and peak Grady Sizemore), but Soriano brought the extremes. In 2006, he had 46 homers and 41 steals. He brought a middleorder mentality to the top.

Years active • 1988-2007 Team • Astros Hall of Fame • 2015 As Moneyball entered the vernacular and on-base percentage became less of a niche stat, there was already a leadoff hitter advancing the modern art of OPS. Biggio moved all over the field but always had a home atop the Astros’ lineup, the first of the Killer B’s to bring the sting. In the 1970s, non-traditional leadoff hitters like Brian Downing (Angels) and Mike Hargrove (Rangers) posted high OPS numbers, and the Yankees’ Derek Jeter was celebrated for his ability to grind a pitcher. Biggio was the hybrid. A No. 2 hitter moved up a spot, Biggio didn’t have the speed of peer Ichiro Suzuki nor the slugging of Soriano, but he bridged the gap between those two leadoff hitters and was the harbinger of Matt Carpenter’s ilk. Only three leadoff hitters since Henderson’s retirement crack the career walk top 27: Lofton, Biggio, and Johnny Damon. And Biggio brings the added dash of the third-most doubles from leadoff (426), NL-record leadoff homers (53), and is a member of the 3,000-hit club.

WIRES PHOTOS Sources: Post-Dispatch research, Baseball-Reference.com and Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index, National Baseball Hall of Fame.

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S8 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

BEYOND HIS YEARS

Martinez is a veteran leader — and the youngest player on the team JOSE de JESUS ORTIZ St. Louis Post-Dispatch

C

JUPITER, FLA.

arlos Martinez was waiting for his breakfast at Roger Dean Stadium before the Cardinals’ first workout when he noticed prospect Sandy Alcantara standing nervously nearby. Sensing a bit of apprehension, Martinez let Alcantara know he could count on him for advice this spring. A few days later, the Cardinals’ young ace saw a dejected Alex Reyes in need of a lift. Reyes had just been informed that he would undergo Tommy John surgery, and the fear in his eyes was evident from across the clubhouse. Martinez walked over, hugged Reyes and gave him a pep talk that Reyes credited with helping him cope with such devastating news. Although Mike Matheny didn’t name Martinez the opening night starter until the penultimate week of camp, Martinez started showing a commitment to lead from the first day of camp. There’s no denying that Dexter Fowler, the former Cubs All-Star, was the biggest story of the Cardinals’ offseason and spring as the new leadoff hitter. Don’t underestimate the significance, however, of the starting rotation’s new leader. Martinez arrived in camp eager to transform himself into a respected and mature leader. At 25, he’s one of the better young arms in baseball. Now he hopes to prove that he can also lead off the mound. “When I think of the past, I tell myself, ‘Why did I do that?’� Martinez said. “How was I able to change so quickly and become a veteran so quickly? At times I ask myself, ‘Am I the one here now?’ I’m very pleased with what I’ve done in my career in such a short time. At times I cry thinking of some of the missteps I’ve had that are now helping me.� There is no doubt that Martinez has earned the right to start opening night. He was clearly the Cardinals’ best starter last year. There wasn’t a close second. He was 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 174 strikeouts over 31 starts while leading the team in victories, ERA and strikeouts. The Cardinals rewarded Martinez with a five-year, $51 million contract extension in February even though he was only in his first year of arbitration eligibility. He is 34-21 with a 3.32 ERA and two saves while throwing 492 2/3 innings over

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Cardinals instructor Jose Oquendo (center) talks with pitchers Sandy Alcantara (left) and Carlos Martinez at spring training.

140 games (68 starts) since reaching the majors in 2013. He has lowered his walks plus hits per innings each year from 1.412 as a rookie to 1.410 in 2014, 1.286 in 2015 and 1.224 last year. “He certainly matured as a pitcher on the field,� former ace Adam Wainwright said. “He’s got a great sense of what a hitter is looking for and he knows how to pitch beyond his years. I think he’s learning how to prepare himself between starts and be a professional as he goes. “He’s only 24, 25 years old, and it seems like he’s been around for a while now. This is the time for him to step up and continue to grow in all facets.� As a pitcher, Martinez has matured into a front-line starter who knows he doesn’t need to try to overpower every hitter. He is blessed with a fastball that can hit 100 mph and sit at 97-98, but he proved last season that he is more than just a fireballer. Off the mound, he also understands that he must be accountable to himself, his teammates and his manager. It should go without saying that he must show up on time, but those are just some of the

minor hiccups that have highlighted his youth in the past. “When I got to the big leagues, I was a simple rookie who tried to learn as quickly as possible and the best way possible,� he said. “But in 2014 and 2015, I was starting to convert into more of a young veteran. I was young but with a little experience. But then in 2016, I took it with more of the right mentality. “I tried to correct my behavior on and off the field and tried to do things as a veteran and tried to keep my veteran status in mind. Now with four years of experience in the big leagues, I know I must lead by example. I know I can be a veteran leader.� Martinez is hesitant to declare himself the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a lofty title, and he clearly still has genuine appreciation and respect for Wainwright’s stature on the team. He credits Wainwright and Yadier Molina with helping him maneuver through some of his missteps in his first four years in the majors. He has been around for so long now, it’s easy for some Cardinals fans to forget that he is still the youngest pitcher on the staff.

Michael Wacha, who will turn 26 on July 1, is the second youngest pitcher in the rotation. Martinez, who won’t turn 26 until Sept. 21, is actually the youngest player on the entire 25-man roster. He is a month and eight days younger than Randal Grichuk, the second youngest player. The youngest shall lead the Cardinals’ rotation this year, and he welcomes the responsibility and honor to lead off the season against the Cubs. “Mentally, I’m happy with the work I’ve done,� he said. “I think that with what I’ve done and what I’ve accomplished, I’m ready to assume more leadership. I simply have to keep working and show them that I can still be a leader, helping my teammates and trying to be No. 1 in everything. “They’re depending on me so that I can be a leader in the future. I’m pleased with what I’m doing. My teammates have supported me and seen that I’ve improved.� Jose de Jesus Ortiz @OrtizKicks on Twitter jortiz@post-dispatch.com

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S10 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017

BEHIND THE FROWN

Matheny says he’s a happy man but can’t show it while competing MIKE MATHENY’S MANAGING RECORD

2012 • 88-74

2013 • 97-65

Wild card, lost in NLCS to San Francisco

2014 • 90-72

National League champion, lost in World Series to Boston

BY RICK HUMMEL St. Louis Post-Dispatch

M

ike Matheny is signed to be the Cardinals’ manager longer than most of his players are under contract, which is highly unusual in baseball’s state. Matheny’s first four Cardinals teams made it to postseason play, winding up in the league championship series three times and the World Series. The club, in appreciation, has tied down Matheny through 2020. But the former Cardinals catcher, starting his sixth season on the job and his first after a non-playoff year, said, “I take it exactly as I did before. I take it as a one-day contact. There’s obviously some benefits and I’m very grateful. But I don’t want to go about it any different than I have in the past. “Just like a player, you don’t have a free pass that you’re going to be in there and everything’s going to be exactly as you want it. You just go play the game.” But the playing of the game, as it were, is only part of the process. The personal interaction between a manager and his players can help make or break a club. In the offseason, Matheny wanted to make sure he listened to his players. “Everybody’s different,” Matheny said. “You’ve got to figure out how to communicate with them differently. I like people. And I like our people. You just do what you have to do to communicate in a way that allows them to thrive. “Things change and people change. You just try to figure out what the constants should be. What are the non-negotiables? And then little stuff, like having music on the field for spring workouts. Can you imagine Bob Gibson standing out there with music on the field? “Why? You don’t need that, but then you get back to is (music) really getting in the way of doing what we need to do? And the answer is no. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have it at the stadium during the season. “Are there any things we can give on that allow these guys to thrive that won’t get in the way of the non-negotiables?

NL Central champion, lost in NLCS to San Francisco

I think it’s pretty simple. You let them think and let them express their opinions. You’ve got to able to hear some things that didn’t line up with the way you thought they should go. Getting stuck in how it used to be is a curse. (But) I don’t want to be this guy where it’s just a freefor-all around here, which it isn’t. It’s a good balance. “There are some things they come up with and I just look at them and I say, ‘No. That’s just not an option.’ But you can either be a dictator or someone who really does want to hear the voice of the team because this isn’t ‘my’ team. I don’t think you’ve ever heard me call it ‘my’ team. “For instance, this was a radical change in how we ran spring training this year with all the different work stations. I think we may have got more work in than in any other year because the guys were really engaged. That probably was a great example of the millennials really wanting to take ownership instead of being commanded.” It seems that Matheny often is blamed for what goes awry with the Cardinals. When this is mentioned to him, he laughs. “Part of me thrives on that,” he said. “That’s a great responsibility for a manager — to be able to wear the burden and take it off the guys. But I just got to the point of realizing that winning a popularity contest is not what I’m supposed to do. “If we’ve been given the right talent and we all put our piece in together, then we’ll be where we’re supposed to be and everybody will be pretty happy at the end. I also understand that with this job that people aren’t going to like every decision. Even if they work, there’s still a group that won’t like it. How do you do it, unless you truly go out and try to please the masses? Then, I get away from what I’m truly here for because they’ll sniff that out. “If this is about me building up me for the sake of approval, then I’ve missed the whole gist of what I’m supposed to do.” There probably aren’t many people who thought Matheny would be manag-

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the best team in baseball. I feel we have the horses to do it. I feel we have the resources to do it. I feel we have the fans who are showing up that supply the drive. When we come up short and don’t even get into the dance late, that’s hard.” “The first time I experienced October baseball was like a kid going to Disney World. Last year, it was like something was taken from you.” While Matheny says he works best assuming he has to prove himself every day, Chairman Bill DeWitt is quite pleased with who he has making decisions for the franchise. “I think it’s easy to say that if we don’t make the playoffs or we don’t do well in the playoffs to point the finger somewhere,” DeWitt said. “But I think there is more analysis than that. You see clubs get frustrated and fire managers or fire general managers because they haven’t won at a particular point in time with the talent that they’ve had. And I just don’t buy into that philosophy. “I think you have to look at the big picture and say how good is our talent? How fortunate or unfortunate have we been with our injuries? There are a lot of things that go into it. “I think we have excellent personnel here that has and will continue to stand the test of time.” In Matheny’s case, that time frame is 2020. And he hopes to have the same job beyond that. “I absolutely love it,” he said.

ing six years after taking the job following the 2011 World Series season of Tony La Russa. But Matheny not only has staying power, he has a genuine affinity for a job that drives many others gray. “I can’t believe how much I love what I do,” he said. “I love people. I know it doesn’t come across that way but people who are around me get that.” But there is one down side. “What I don’t love about it is how crusty it’s made me,” Matheny said. “And it has. I’m always on guard and that does come through to the public. “I do feel like I’m a different person when I put the uniform on. We say so many words and ... things that were nowhere intended to go in a certain direction can easily go the other way. I wish I could completely let my guard down and be myself and still be able to do my job where I’m a spokesman for the organization and for these guys. I can’t do it. “All winter, I hear from people, ‘You’re not as miserable as you look on TV.’ I’m one of the smiling-est guys you’ve ever met. But I can’t do my job the way I wish I could. So badly, I wish I could have had more fun when I played. I would have been a better player, there’s no doubt about it. “But I don’t know how to do that. I don’t know how ‘fun’ and ‘compete’ work together. It makes no sense to me.” Matheny certainly wasn’t having any fun last October when the Cardinals weren’t in the playoffs. “That didn’t sit right,” he said. “ I’ve never set the goal as just to get to the postseason every year. We want to be

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S14 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017

CARDINALS VS. CUBS

Talent is on Chicago’s side, but history is against another World Series

ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Chicago Cubs celebrate after beating the Cleveland Indians in Game 7 of the World Series on Nov. 3. The Cubs won 8-7 in 10 innings for their first championship since 1908. BY RICK HUMMEL St. Louis Post-Dispatch

T

he gaps in years between the Chicago Cubs winning another World Series and the possibility of them winning two in succession are quite different. It was a stunning 108 years in the first case, but still it has been 41 years, or since Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine in 1975-76, since any National League club has won World Series in consecutive years. The Cubs certainly have an estimable nucleus in Most Valuable Player Kris Bryant, All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo and top-flight starters in Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks. Arrieta, Lester and No. 4 starter John Lackey, however, all are over 30 years old. There is reason to believe that outfielder Kyle Schwarber, injured almost all of last season, will produce roughly the same kind of impact that departed Dexter Fowler did as a Cubs outfielder, although Schwarber will do it in different ways, such as hitting balls over walls or into scoreboards, as the Cardinals found out all too well in the division playoffs two years ago. Manager Joe Maddon, a constant manipulator, isn’t likely to let his team become complacent. He’ll bring in an entire zoo with each animal wearing a Blackhawks jersey, if that’s what it takes to keep his team entertained and engaged. But the numbers are startling against repeat World Series titlists or even back-to-back World Series appearances in the National League. For instance, the Cardinals have appeared in six World Series in the last 35 seasons, but in each case they did not make the World Series the next year. In fact, the only National League teams even to play in back-to-back

CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong is viewed as a key to their success this season.

World Series since the Reds did it in 1975-76 were the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1977-78, the Atlanta Braves in 199192, the Braves again in 1995-96 and the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008-09. That’s four times in 40 years. The Cubs have had two straight winning seasons, which isn’t a big deal for most teams, but only once in the last 45 years have they had three consecutive winning seasons, from 2007-09. Not that it matters all that much (if at all), but they have won only one World Series in an odd-numbered year, 1907. But not too many top-shelf teams have five top starting position players who are 25 or under, as are Bryant,

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Schwarber, shortstop Addison Russell, second baseman Javier Baez and catcher Willson Contreras. In that very significant sense, the Cubs are built to last. And, if somehow the Cubs can resist the urge to play Jason Heyward just because he makes more money than just about anybody but Jennifer Lopez, the Cubs could be singing and dancing again in October. It’s just that the numbers are not in their favor. The Cubs will win the National League Central Division again if ... they suffer no significant injury to their top three pitchers or Bryant or Rizzo. The Cubs will not win the NL Central if ... they don’t establish a reliable

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closer. Wade Davis was on the disabled list twice in the last three months of the season last year at Kansas City, and the Cubs are kind of banking he can replace Aroldis Chapman. It seems that the Cardinals are the lone NL Central club that possibly could beat the Cubs. And the absence of Chapman from the Cubs can only play in their favor. Since Chapman came into the National League in 2010, he has faced the Cardinals 37 times. They have batted .088 against him with two doubles and one home run, predictably by Albert Pujols, some six years ago. They have only to deal with him for three games this year when the Cardinals play the Yankees in New York later this month, rather than 19 times as division rivals. The numbers are slightly more in the Cardinals’ favor for them reaching the World Series. They have made the World Series three or more times in four different decades — the 1930s, 1940s, 1960s and the 1980s. They have two Series appearances so far in this decade. History, again for what it matters, is in their favor for winning the Central Division title. Since the Cincinnati Reds were the first Central Division winners in 1995, the Cardinals have won 10 of the next 21 division crowns and tied for another. The Cardinals will win the NL Central again if ... Kolten Wong finally establishes himself at second base, if there are no starting pitching breakdowns and if their defense wins games instead of giving them away. The Cardinals will not win the NL Central if ... Seung Hwan Oh’s rookie season was a mirage and Trevor Rosenthal can’t bounce back to form to replace him. See NL CENTRAL • Page S15

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • Sunday • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S15

Pirates still have their ace, great outfield Garza

Arroyo

AP

McCutchen

CHRIS LEE • P-D

NL CENTRAL • FROM S14

PITTSBURGH PIRATES The last time the Pirates won a division was when they were in the National League East in 1992. Ted Simmons was their general manager, Jim Leyland their manager and Barry Bonds their star. Pittsburgh, which still has Gerrit Cole as its ace, often has filled its rotation with low-budget castoffs from other organizations and has been successful in so doing. Now, the Pirates are promoting two of their own, 6-foot-5 righthander Jameson Taillon and 6-8 Tyler Glas-

now. The Pirates still have their athletic outfield of Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and, for now at least, Andrew McCutchen. But do they have enough at the corners and in their bullpen after Tony Watson? The Pirates will win the NL Central if ... McCutchen turns back the clock a little (he still is only 30) and Cole, like the Cardinals’ Michael Wacha, can rebound from injury. The Pirates will not win the NL Central if ... well, they never have.

AP

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

CINCINNATI REDS

Milwaukee could be much improved, to the point of .500 or beyond, if its young pitching develops. But isn’t that always the case with every team? Every spring? The Brewers will win the NL Central if ... their bullpen is lights out. Really lights out. The Brewers had no complete games last year. The Brewers will not win the NL Central with Matt Garza in the rotation. The oft-injured veteran is 20-30 for the first three years of his four-year deal.

The Reds were the first Central Division winner and have won more Central Division titles (three) than the Pirates (none) and Brewers (one) combined. They might need a lot of young pitching to come along, with Anthony DeSclafani now out for months with a ligament injury in his elbow. The Reds will win the NL Central if ... Jose Rijo, Don Gullett and Mario Soto return. The Reds will not win the NL Central if ... 40-yearold Bronson Arroyo, trying another comeback, is their leading winner.

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S18 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

SP Cardinals have a veteran rotation, but questions as well

Wacha

THE PIECES ARE THERE BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS Even without injured Alex Reyes, out for the season following Tommy John elbow surgery, the Cardinals can claim five legitimate — and veteran — major league starters. Young righthander Carlos Martinez matured into a No. 1 starter last season and wants to be that staff leader. Martinez always has had No. 1-type stuff and now he has experience and a better temperament to match. Adam Wainwright, a year more removed from Achilles tendon surgery that surely must have been in the back of his mind last year, isn’t quite ready to cede all No. 1 rights to Martinez. Wainwright burns to be better than the 13-9, 4.62 ERA pitcher of last season, and while he isn’t a 20-game winner anymore, he could return to the 15-win level with reasonable health. Righthander Lance Lynn has averaged 15 wins a season for the four years he has been a starter, and he is far enough from his Tommy John surgery — his was in November 2015 — that 15 wins isn’t out of reach for him. Lynn could be doubly motivated by his impending free agency. Now ... can Michael Wacha stay healthy, avoiding the dreaded stress reaction condition in his right shoulder that has waylaid two seasons? If so, he could be the 17-game winner we saw in 2015. He was as good as any starter this spring, showing four pitches and keeping the ball at the knees. Righthander Mike Leake, afflicted by shingles and bad defense last year, should not be troubled by the former and hopes not to be bedeviled by the latter. The sinkerballer would benefit the most from a solid second base-shortstop defensive tandem and also is capable of winning 15 himself. But another 9-12 won’t be good enough.

MARTINEZ’S 2016 STATS 16-9 RECORD 3.04 ERA 195.1 IP 174 Ks

70 WALKS

169 HITS ALLOWED

2016 STATS

WAINWRIGHT 13-9 record • 4.62 ERA 198.2 innings pitched 161 Ks • 59 walks 220 hits allowed

LYNN* (2015) 12-11 record • 3.03 ERA 175.1 innings pitched 167 Ks • 68 walks 172 hits allowed

LEAKE 9-12 record • 4.69 ERA 176.2 innings pitched 125 Ks • 30 walks 203 hits allowed

WACHA 7-7 record • 5.09 ERA 138 innings pitched 114 Ks • walks 159 hits allowed

PLAN B Lefthanders Marco Gonzales and Tyler Lyons both started for the Cardinals in 2015 and Luke Weaver made eight starts for them as a rookie last year. All are likely to be part of the pitching equation at one point or another this season, with Lyons likely to be the first in St. Louis. And then there is righthander Trevor Rosenthal, who was to have received starters’ innings in spring training, in deference to his desire to be a starter instead of a closer or a set-up man, but missed a couple of weeks when he had a lat problem and fell out of contention, for the moment. Gonzales will be brought along a bit slowly — he will open at Class AAA Memphis — after Tommy John elbow surgery last spring. Lyons, recovered from knee surgery, sometime in April is likely to head to the Cardinals’ bullpen, where he performed well last year before he got hurt. Weaver was impressive at times in a hurried recall from Memphis, and he could be a rotation member in 2018, although he wasn’t impressive this spring after he hurt his back. For much of this season, the former Florida State righthander, who has a top-notch fastball and breaking ball, probably will work at Memphis. Less of a long shot than when spring began is righthander John Gant, acquired from Atlanta in the Jaime Garcia trade. Gant has command of several pitches and could be either a reliever or a starter but probably will work early in the season at Memphis. Keep an eye on big lefthander Austin Gomber, who opened eyes in multiple-inning and shorter sessions during spring training. He could be up in some capacity later in the season.

Lyons

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

RP Cecil’s signing gives Cards options from left and right sides

VALUABLE VERSATILITY BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS Lefthander Kevin Siegrist continues to work on improving his curveball to where he can get outs with it, which would complement his mid-90s fastball. Siegrist, who has averaged 74 appearances for the last two years, is capable of pitching anywhere from the sixth through the ninth, and he should benefit this year from having Brett Cecil, another power lefthanded reliever, who was signed to a four-year, $30.5 million deal. Cecil is the better of the two against lefthanded hitters, so he might be the more specialized, but he also has shown he can retire righthanded hitters with some consistency. Righthander Trevor Rosenthal is back in the bullpen mix after his bid to become a starting candidate largely was squelched by a lat injury this spring. Manager Mike Matheny is hopeful that Rosenthal can be that power two-inning reliever that became all the rage last postseason. But Rosenthal was hurt much of last year, and this spring he was set back again. For now, he is neither a starter nor a closer, which he was until midseason last year. But he still throws very hard, and his curveball and changeup are all right. Veteran Jonathan Broxton was erratic last season, but his command was better this spring, and he will appear most often in the sixth through the eighth. Matt Bowman, who pretty much had to be on the club last year as a Rule 5 draft acquisition, has earned his spot this time. Bowman is one of the better Cardinals relievers at inducing double-play balls. The Cardinals broke camp with 12 pitchers, meaning righthander Miguel Socolovich, who has had ERAs of 1.81 and 2.00 in partial seasons for the Cardinals the last two years, made the club for the first time out of spring. His fastball command has improved enough to complement his excellent changeup. He also can work multiple innings.

SIEGRIST’S 2016 STATS 6-3 RECORD • 3 SAVES 2.77 ERA 61.2 IP 66 Ks

26 WALKS

42 HITS ALLOWED

2016 STATS CECIL (W/TOR) 1-7 record • 3.93 ERA 36.2 innings pitched 45 Ks • 8 walks 39 hits allowed

ROSENTHAL 2-4 record • 4.46 ERA 14 saves • 40.1 IP 56 Ks • 29 walks 48 hits allowed

BROXTON 4-2 record • 4.30 ERA 60.2 innings pitched 57 Ks • 24 walks 52 hits allowed

BOWMAN 2-5 record • 3.46 ERA 67.2 innings pitched 52 Ks • 20 walks 59 hits allowed

SOCOLOVICH 1-0 record • 2.00 ERA 18 innings pitched 16 Ks • 5 walks 5 hits allowed

GANT (W/ATL) 1-4 record • 4.86 ERA 50 innings pitched 49 Ks • 21 walks 54 hits allowed

LYONS 2-0 record • 3.38 ERA 48 innings pitched 46 Ks • 14 walks 35 hits allowed

TUIVAILALA 0-0 record • 6.00 ERA 9 innings pitched 7 Ks • 6 walks 12 hits allowed

PLAN B Righthander John Gant, acquired from Atlanta in the Jaime Garcia trade, showed in the spring that he could either start or relieve at the major-league level with stuff that had more command and velocity than was thought. Lefthander Tyler Lyons, a swingman who pitched exclusively and well last year in relief for his 30 outings, still is recovering from offseason knee surgery, although he should be ready for full-time duty soon. He would provide either long relief or shorter stints and he is always around the plate, sometimes to his detriment, because his home-run rate is high. Lefthander Marco Gonzales is still rebounding from his Tommy John elbow surgery of last season and will turn up at Memphis when he is healed. But he could be a two-way pitcher for the Cardinals later in the season. Hard-throwing righthander Sam Tuivailala, who has been working on a curveball as a secondary pitch to his high-90s gas, was inconsistent this spring but still has promise because of his fastball. He could be here to stay when he can establish something besides a fourseam fastball. Lefthander Austin Gomber, very impressive in the spring, will start in the minors but could be brought up as a reliever. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Siegrist

Lyons

Gant


BASEBALL PREVIEW

S20 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

CL Even opponents familiar with Oh find him baffling

SPECIAL DELIVERY

Oh

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS After exploding onto the stateside scene last year, first as a setup man and then a finisher, Korean righthander Seung Hwan Oh enters his second major league season as the Cardinals’ closer. The impressive part about Oh’s rookie year – besides the 103 strikeouts in 792/3 innings, 19 saves and 1.92 ERA – was the fact that teams that saw him two or more times didn’t seem to have any more idea how to hit him at the end of the season than they did at the beginning. Oh tired a bit late in the season and had to take a week off with a groin injury. Seventy or so games could be a good figure for him rather than the 76 he had last year. Oh throws harder than you might suspect for a 34-year-old who is under 6 feet tall. He wasn’t in camp for a couple of weeks because of his participation in the World Baseball Classic, but he got plenty of work when he returned. Oh, who has a galaxy of pitches, doesn’t have any trouble at all with lefthanded batters, holding them to a .176 mark last year, allowing just one homer to a lefthanded hitter of the five struck against him.

OH’S 2016 STATS 19 SAVES 23 SAVE OPPORTUNITIES 6-3 RECORD

1.92 ERA 79.2 IP

103 Ks

18

55 HITS ALLOWED

PLAN B There always is Trevor Rosenthal, who set the club record at 48 saves in 2015 but battled injury and command problems last year and was relegated to mostly non-stressful roles by the end of the year. Rosenthal, if he can shake a lat problem that caused him to miss nearly two weeks of spring games, could be the closer again down the line if Oh falters, although manager Mike Matheny probably would employ more of a committee approach, also involving lefthanders Kevin Siegrist and Brett Cecil, who was signed to a four-year deal to leave Toronto. Siegrist, oddly, retires righthanded hitters better than lefthanders (.179 to .224). He had three saves last year. Cecil has been effective against both lefthanded and righthanded batsmen also, meaning he, too, could get some ninth-inning work. Rosenthal still has the electric fastball that can trend to almost 100 miles per hour, but he sometimes has trouble keeping it in the strike zone. His curveball and changeup both have improved. Hard-throwing Sam Tuivailala looks to be the closer at Memphis again, but until he can better command his curveball to give him some variety in his arsenal, he won’t get steady work in the majors. This spring he abandoned the cutter the organization wanted him to work on. The former infielder, however, is only 24. Long shot? Former outfielder and catcher Rowan Wick is fast rising through the system. Throwing nearly 100 mph will do that for you. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

OF A mainstay leaves, a spark plug arrives as Cards shift approach

Rosenthal

Grichuk

GREENER PASTURES? BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS Matt Holliday is gone after 7½ seasons with the club and Dexter Fowler is here for the next five seasons, presumably. Over the last two seasons when he battled injury, Holliday wasn’t the same consistent threat, but he still was the one hitter in the Cardinals’ lineup the opponents really feared. Fowler isn’t that productive-type hitter, but he is an igniter and teams will have to reckon with that new lineup energy. Fowler is a .280-type hitter with modest power but, with his ability to walk, his on-base percentage can be 100 more points than his batting average and he can steal as many as 20 or more bases, too. With Fowler in center, Randal Grichuk can shift to left where he will be a large upgrade defensively, including the presence of an unusually strong arm for a left fielder. Will this be the year Grichuk hits 30 homers? Well, he actually did last year, although six were hit for Memphis in his two trips there to get him untracked. He probably isn’t the .276 hitter he was in 2015, but he should be a bit better than the .240 batsman he was last year. Pitch selection will be key as Grichuk must narrow the gap between his strikeouts and walks (141-28). Right fielder Stephen Piscotty has become a more productive hitter at the major-league level, although with his rise in home runs and RBIs to 22 and 85, respectively, has come a hike in strikeouts at 133 and a drop in average to .273. Piscotty’s power production doesn’t necessarily smack of a cleanup man, but he has been among the top hitters in the league with men in scoring position the last couple of seasons, hitting .363 in that department last year. He did not have a strong spring, however, hitting well under .200.

2016 COMBINED STATS (Grichuk, Piscotty) .259 AVERAGE 153 RBI

218 Ks

64 DOUBLES 6 TRIPLES 12 STEALS

266 HITS 79 WALKS

46 HRs

2016 INDIVIDUAL STATS GRICHUK .240 average • 24 HRs 68 RBI • 107 Hits 29 doubles • 3 triples 28 walks • 5 steals 141 Ks

PISCOTTY .273 average • 22 HRs 85 RBI • 159 Hits 35 doubles • 3 triples 51 walks • 7 steals 133 Ks

FOWLER’S 2016 STATS (with Cubs)

.276 AVERAGE 48 RBI

124 Ks 25 DOUBLES

7 TRIPLES 13 STEALS

126 HITS 79 WALKS

13 HRs

PLAN B Career minor leaguer Jose Martinez flashed a quick bat in a seven-for-16 showing last September. This spring, he was the best hitter in camp, if not the majors, and helped his stock by being able to play first base. Martinez took some good atbats as a pinch hitter last season and figures to be seen a lot in that role early in the season. Tommy Pham, who has been waylaid by injury or vision problems for much of his career, can be a solid No. 4 or 5 outfielder, but he has to make contact to work his way back from Memphis. He has power and speed and the ability to run down balls at all three spots in the outfield, but he went on a terrible strikeout binge last season, fanning 71 times in 159 at-bats, and he wasn’t appreciably better this spring. The top immediate outfield prospect in the system is righthanded-batting Harrison Bader, a former University of Florida star who can play all three spots in the outfield. Bader, however, struggled at Class AAA Memphis last year after getting off to a good start, and the organization probably would prefer to leave him in Triple-A most, if not all, of the season. Put Magneuris Sierra, a 20-year-old speedster, in your future book. One baseball man, after watching Sierra hit, run and throw in spring training, wondered if Sierra was going to make the club. Manager Mike Matheny had to inform the observer that Sierra was only at Class A Peoria last year. And then there is first baseman Matt Adams, who began playing the outfield late in camp, and Matheny will try to get his bat in the lineup sometimes as a left fielder against tough righthanded pitching. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Piscotty


BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • SUNDAY • M 1

1B Carpenter moves to another position, becomes No. 3 hitter

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S21

Carpenter

CHANGE OF ADDRESS BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS Matt Carpenter will be starting at his third infield position for the Cardinals. Although he was sidelined for almost two weeks in the spring with lower back tightness, Carpenter continued to get work at his new address, where his footwork seemed better than last season when he played a few games at first. Now a third-place hitter in the lineup with Dexter Fowler leading off, Carpenter will be in a run-producing position and might have to swing at some borderline pitches he might not have offered at as a leadoff hitter. But his 28 homers and 84 RBIs in 2015 suggest he could be up to that task. Carpenter’s range will be modest at the position, but he possesses good hands. His arm, while average at third, probably is above average at first. Something to watch as he heads for age 32 is how healthy he will remain. The lefthanded-hitting Carpenter was out a month with an oblique strain last year, and this year it was feared he would be headed in that direction again if he didn’t stay out when he felt something in his back.

CARPENTER’S 2016 STATS .271 AVERAGE 68 RBI

108 Ks 36 DOUBLES

6 TRIPLES 0 STEALS

128 HITS 81 WALKS

HRs 21 HRs

PLAN B Lefthanded-hitting Matt Adams, who was the regular going into last season, showed up in camp having lost 30 pounds and looking much more streamlined. Adams, who modified his stance and swing, took a while to get going in the spring, but he began to hit with authority about halfway through camp and he probably would be the regular here if Carpenter hadn’t already been moved to first. Adams has been a terrific pinch hitter at .330 with seven homers and 28 RBIs in 100 career at-bats. Last year, though he was in and out of the lineup, Adams had 16 homers in 297 at-bats. Adams has the potential to be a higher average hitter if he can lay off the pitch in the dirt. Defensively, he is considered to have only modest range, and his throwing arm can be erratic. Jose Martinez, who has had little firstbase work, applied his 6-foot-6 frame to the position in some spring games. He looked uncomfortable at times, but he was eager to learn and might turn up there against some lefthanded pitchers. The minors don’t offer much other than Chad Huffman, who also plays outfield. Huffman, who had 17 homers in Toledo last year, didn’t help himself with a quiet spring. He would not be a regular at the position at the majorleague level. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Adams

2B Cards want Wong to live up to potential they know is there

Wong

IT’S TIME TO SHINE BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS Last spring, the Cardinals invested heavily in their future at this position, giving Kolten Wong a $25.5 million contract for five seasons. Wong, the Cardinals’ top draft pick in 2011, has many of the makings of a star, including power and speed. But to be an everyday player he will have to improve his walk total and, consequently, his on-base percentage. Wong has just 94 walks in 1,469 career plate appearances and a .309 OBP. He should be a .270-plus hitter at some point if he can rein in a swing that is too power-conscious. With his speed, Wong could help reshape the Cardinals’ offense a bit — if he can get on. Wong wasn’t thrown out in his steal attempts last season but, hesitant to make a mistake, he tried only seven times. Defensively, Wong can make all the plays, shows good range and stands in well on the double play pivot. Some of his errors come when he gets careless or too flamboyant, but he displayed more experience and maturity in that regard last season. There was, however, an ill-fated fling in the outfield in which he hurt his right shoulder when he slipped on a wet Wrigley Field turf in September. The lefthanded-batting Wong shouldn’t necessarily have more trouble against lefthanded pitching, and he really hasn’t, averaging .247 against southpaws and .248 against righthanders. The point is that he should be better than a .248 hitter. Wong again is pledging not to be so hard on himself this year when things aren’t going his way.

WONG’S 2016 STATS .240 AVERAGE 23 RBI

52 Ks 7 DOUBLES

7 TRIPLES 7 STEALS

75 HITS 34 WALKS

STAT

PLAN B Jedd Gyorko had 30 homers last year, including at least one as a starter at all four infield positions, and second base is his best position defensively, although he doesn’t have Wong’s skills. Gyorko does have good hands, however, and acceptable range at the position. Lefthanded-hitting Greg Garcia, who was Wong’s infield teammate at the University of Hawaii and through a few stops in the Cardinals’ system, could play the position if an injury occurred, perhaps even as a regular, although he is valuable coming off the bench as a pinch hitter. Wilfredo Tovar, a slick fielding middle infielder who was in the Minnesota system last year, could fill in at second for a while and utilityman Breyvic Valera, a better hitter than Tovar but not as accomplished defensively, also could step up from Memphis on a short-term basis. But Gyorko would get the first crack if Wong went wrong again. This might be the last year the Cardinals try to dance with Wong, despite his contract, unless there is some significant improvement offensively. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Gyorko


BASEBALL PREVIEW

S22 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

3B Peralta can do job but is unlikely to be a regular next season

Peralta

CHANGE ON HORIZON BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS

PERALTA’S 2016 STATS

This will be a transition year for the Cardinals at this position. Jhonny Peralta, on the tail end of a four-year contract, will be the regular at the start of the season but perhaps not at the end and almost certainly not next season. Peralta, adequate or even better at shortstop in his first two seasons with the Cardinals, sustained a torn ligament in his left thumb last spring training. When he returned he was not the shortstop anymore because of the emergence of rookie Aledmys Diaz. Peralta had to play shortstop for a few games when Diaz was hurt but had lost a step and had to be moved back to third base, where he was in and out of the lineup for a while before playing capably defensively. He hit well during the last month after his thumb, which he had hurt again, had healed. Peralta may not be the Cardinals’ third baseman of the future, but he is playing for his future and will be motivated. If healthy, he could hit 15 or more home runs and drive in 75 or more runs. He also could be traded if the Cardinals fall out of the race, or even if they don’t.

.260 AVERAGE 29 RBI

56 Ks 17 DOUBLES

1 TRIPLE 0 STEALS

75 HITS 20 WALKS

8 HRs HRs

PLAN B The Cardinals have the luxury of having a 30-homer man in reserve infielder Jedd Gyorko, who played all four infield spots last year and seemed comfortable enough at third base both last year and in the spring. He has good hands and a strong arm although, like Peralta, modest range. Gyorko does provide the power quotient most often associated with third base, although his RBI count (59) did not reflect his home-run output. “I don’t hit doubles,” Gyorko said at one point. And the statistics bore him out. He had just nine two-base hits last season. It will be hard to keep a 30-homer man on the bench, but at the start of the season the job will be Peralta’s.

PLAN C Matt Carpenter has played more third base than anybody on the club the last few years and could go there again, if necessary, but the club is hopeful he can remain at first this season. As a third base defender, Carpenter is not necessarily a liability, but he is adequate at best. Utilityman Greg Garcia could fill in for a few days, but shortstop and second base are believed to be his better positions. Patrick Wisdom, promising but something of a disappointment last year, was more confident and productive in the spring, and the St. Mary’s product could be in the majors before the year is over if he does well at Memphis. Paul DeJong, who had 22 homers, played third at Class AA Springfield last year but figures to be lined up next to Wisdom at shortstop at Memphis. Both Wisdom and DeJong appear to have decent range and strong arms. Gyorko

Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

SS Diaz looks better in the field, and there’s no doubt about his hitting

Diaz

STEADY AS HE GOES BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS A year ago, Aledmys Diaz expected to be the shortstop at Class AAA Memphis. But after veteran Jhonny Peralta suffered a torn ligament in his left thumb, veteran Ruben Tejada, brought in as the next regular shortstop, went down with a hamstring injury. The call quickly went out to bring up Diaz, who had been impressive at bat in the spring. And Diaz quickly proved he was ready — at bat. He hit .300 with 17 home runs and drove in 65 runs despite suffering his own thumb injury. But Diaz was rushed in the field, where he lacked seasoning. The rookie was unsteady during the first half of the season, both in positioning and technique. He settled down in the second half of the season before hurting his thumb. When he returned late in the year, his throwing was inconsistent as he favored his throwing motion to take pressure off his thumb. After an entire offseason and spring training of working with Cardinals infield guru Jose Oquendo, Diaz is much more solid defensively. He may never be a Gold Glover there and probably will end up at third base or second before his career is too many years along, but he can be serviceable at short. His footwork is improved and his throwing accuracy should reflect that. At bat, he is fearless. On the bases, he is among the Cardinals’ more aggressive runners. Three times he scored from first base on plays during which almost anyone else on the club would have stopped at third. He is a good enough bat handler to hit second and has the pop to hit third.

DIAZ’S 2016 STATS .300 AVERAGE 65 RBI

60 Ks 28 DOUBLES

3 TRIPLES 4 STEALS

121 HITS 41 WALKS

HRs 17 HRs

PLAN B The next shortstop in line, if Diaz would miss significant time with injury, well could be Peralta, who took some balls at shortstop early in spring training and appears to be moving better than he did last year. At best, though, his range would be less than adequate and Peralta, at this stage, is more suited to third base. Greg Garcia was a shortstop at the University of Hawaii when Kolten Wong was the second baseman, and the pair teamed up for several years in the minors, although it appears the lefthanded hitter’s best position is second base. When Diaz was out with injury last year, though, Garcia was surprisingly solid at shortstop and could fill the breach for a week or two. He also has become a reliable, smart hitter and a good hitter in the clutch for someone with so little experience. Paul DeJong, who hit 22 homers at Class AA Springfield in 2016, will get a shot at playing shortstop at Memphis. DeJong, who had played mostly third base in the system previously, showed good range and a strong arm during spring training as he also displayed good power to all fields. He could be a Cardinal before the season is over because he also plays second base. The Cardinals have a bevy of shortstops coming through the lower minors, too. But, with Diaz’s expected improvement, they shouldn’t need anybody just yet. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Garcia


BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S23

C Molina still carries a big load behind plate and hits as well as ever

A LOT LEFT IN THE TANK

Molina

BY RICK HUMMEL • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

EXPECTATIONS After winning eight straight Gold Gloves before being denied last season, Yadier Molina has added incentive this season, which is the last on his five-year contract, although there is a mutual option for 2018. After years of catching runners at higher than a 40-percent clip, Molina was at a career-low 21 percent last season, in part because pitchers either did not hold runners well at first or were too slow to the plate. But offensively, he had one of his finest seasons, batting .365 after the All-Star break, belying a supposition that he was being played too much by manager Mike Matheny. At age 34, Molina still can be counted on to catch 130 games, and he probably would want to play in more than that. His drop to four home runs in 2015 fueled all sorts of speculation that he had lost too much weight in his dieting regimen, but the dropoff may well have been residual problems he had after right thumb surgery the year before. Molina had a more representative eight homers last year and showed the ability to produce in the middle of the lineup, batting .332 as a No. 5 hitter. He might be slotted at No. 6 this year and if that happens, the Cardinals are happy with their lineup. One of the great facets of Molina’s offensive game is that, by modern standards, he doesn’t strike out. He fanned 63 times last year, a career high, but that is negligible since he had a career-high 534 at-bats. Molina is one of the better hit-and-run men on the team, which helps move baserunners and keeps the Cardinals out of double-play situations that could arise because of his lack of speed.

MOLINA’S 2016 STATS .307 AVERAGE 58 RBI

63 Ks 38 DOUBLES

1 TRIPLE 3 STEALS

164 HITS 39 WALKS

HRs 8 HRs

PLAN B The Cardinals were much lampooned when they lost capable backup Eric Fryer to Pittsburgh through a waiver claim last July. Fryer had hit .368 in 38 at-bats for the Cardinals and thrown out four of six runners who had tried to steal before the Pirates latched onto him. Fryer was re-signed to a minor-league contract but will be the No. 2 catcher, coming with inherent knowledge of just about every pitcher on the staff. He would play at least once a week ideally. But if Molina were out for a significant time with injury, young Carson Kelly probably would be brought up from Class AAA Memphis. Kelly got his feet wet last September, doubling in his first atbat. The former infielder has shown a strong arm and good agility behind the plate and has established rapport with pitchers, but the organization would like him to catch at least a half-year more at Memphis, where he played the final two months of last season. With pitchers generally not as accomplished in the minors at holding on runners, Kelly still threw out 31 percent of potential base stealers last year at Class AA Springfield and Class AAA Memphis. He is the catcher of the future, basically whenever Molina decides, that is. Matheny says Kelly is accomplished enough defensively that he could catch in the majors now. Rick Hummel @cmshhummel on Twitter rhummel@post-dispatch.com

Fryer


BASEBALL PREVIEW

S24 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • Sunday • 04.02.2017 • M 1

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S25

CARDINALS 25-MAN ROSTER PHOTOS BY CHRIS LEE • clee@post-dispatch.com

MATT ADAMS • 1B/OF • No. 32

MATT BOWMAN • RHP • No. 67

JONATHAN BROXTON • RHP • No. 30

MATT CARPENTER • 1B • No. 13

BRETT CECIL • LHP • No. 21

ALDEMYS DIAZ • SS • No. 36

DEXTER FOWLER • CF • No. 25

ERIC FRYER • C • No. 41

GREG GARCIA • UT • No. 35

RANDAL GRICHUK • LF • No. 15

JEDD GYORKO • UT • No. 3

MIKE LEAKE • RHP • No. 8

LANCE LYNN • RHP • No. 31

CARLOS MARTINEZ • RHP • No. 18

JOSE MARTINEZ • OF/1B • No. 58

YADIER MOLINA • C • No. 4

SEUNG HWAN OH • RHP • No. 26

TREVOR ROSENTHAL • RHP • No. 44

JHONNY PERALTA • 3B • No. 27

STEPHEN PISCOTTY • RF • No. 55

KEVIN SIEGRIST • LHP • No. 46

MIGUEL SOCOLOVICH • RHP • No. 63

MICHAEL WACHA • RHP • No. 52

ADAM WAINWRIGHT • RHP • No. 50

KOLTEN WONG • 2B • No. 16

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S26 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • Sunday • 04.02.2017

FILE PHOTO

CARDINALS 2017 SCHEDULE APRIL Sun.

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30 FS 31 FS SF Mil 9:15 1:10

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24 TBD 25 FS 26 FS 27 FS Chi Chi Chi Chi 7:15 7:15 7:15 12:35

All game times are St. Louis times and may be subject to change. TV: ESPN (E), FSM (FS), Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

14 FS Cin 12:45

28 FS Chi 6:15

15 FS 16 FOX Chi Chi 12:05 1:20

29 FS Mil 7:15

30 TBD Mil 3:15

1 FS Mil 2:15

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

S28 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

THE USUAL SUSPECTS Look for Red Sox, Indians to stay on top but Astros to pass Rangers BY JEFF GORDON • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

AL EAST

AL CENTRAL

Sale

AL WEST

Encarnacion

AP

Correa

AP

AP

BOSTON RED SOX

CLEVELAND INDIANS

HOUSTON ASTROS

2016 record • 93-69 Outlook • The acquisition of Chris Sale creates a dominant starting rotation, even with David Price nursing a balky elbow this spring. Rick Porcello is coming off a Cy Young Award season, and Drew Pomeranz should improve on how he pitched (4.59 ERA in 14 games) after arriving from San Diego in a trade. Oddly, the Red Sox are searching for a No. 1 catcher from the prospect pile to work with all this great pitching. They will miss retired slugger David Ortiz, but the slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval and star outfielder Mookie Betts should keep the offense rolling. A full season of elite prospect Andrew Benintendi adds length to the batting order. Leading off • Second baseman Dustin Pedroia is a classic table setter. He posted a .372 on-base percentages in 470 plate appearances as a No. 2 hitter, then moved into the leadoff role in August. He finished with a .394 OBP and .852 on-base plus slugging percentage in 213 plate appearances atop the order.

2016 record • 94-67 Outlook • Adding slugger Edwin Encarnacion made the reigning AL champions even more powerful. High-end pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar return to the rotation after suffering 2016 injuries, and the Indians will have a full season of Andrew Miller in the bullpen. Shortstop Francisco Lindor has room to grow after posting a .301/.358/.435 slash line as a 22-year-old. He struck out just 12.9 percent of the time last year. Outfielder Michael Brantley returned to active duty this spring after recovering from his ugly shoulder injury. Leading off • So why did lumbering designated hitter Carlos Santana spend more time hitting first than fifth last season? He drew 67 walks in 395 plate appearances as the leadoff hitter while producing a .385 on-base percentage. Second baseman Jason Kipnis, who built a .342 OBP as a No. 2 hitter last year, took some leadoff spins this spring before landing on the disabled list with a shoulder injury.

2016 record • 84-78 Outlook • General manager Jeff Luhnow hasn’t gotten the big Chicago Cubs-like payoff from his tank-and-rebuild operation, so he moved with urgency this winter. Catcher Brian McCann, former Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran and outfielder Josh Reddick were all strong additions to support multi-talented second baseman Jose Altuve and elite youngsters like Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Yuliesky Gurriel. If hard-throwing Francis Martes can graduate this season, he could help Dallas Kuechel and Lance McCullers Jr. make the pitching staff more formidable. But Collin McHugh’s “dead arm” this spring didn’t help matters. Leading off • When batting first last season, outfielder George Springer produced a .362 on-base percentage and an on-base plus slugging percentage of .816. He offers more power (29 homers) than speed (nine stolen bases), but he drew 88 walks and got hit by pitches 11 times.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

DETROIT TIGERS

2016 record • 86-75 Outlook • Like his fiancee Kate Upton, Justin Verlander is aging well. He was 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA last season after making just 20 starts during his injurymarred 2015 season. Verlander and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer head an otherwise shaky starting rotation. Anibal Sanchez struggled in the spring, which was notable because of his $16.8 million salary for this season and that $5 million buyout for 2018. Miguel Cabrera drove in 108 runs with a .956 on-base plus slugging percentage last season, but the Detroit lineup lacks its usual depth. Among the question marks is center field, where the Tigers hope to get something out of the pile of Tyler Collins, Mikie Mahtook and JaCoby Jones. Leading off • All but seven of second baseman Ian Kinsler’s plate appearances last season came in the leadoff spot. And why not? He produced a .346 on-base percentage, stole 14 bases and scored 116 runs from that slot. Kinsler also swatted 28 homers and drove in 82 runs from there.

TEXAS RANGERS

2016 record • 89-73 Outlook • Adding Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce may not offset the loss of slugger Edwin Encarnacion to free agency. Then again, if third baseman Josh Donaldson (37 homers, 99 RBIs) can stay healthy and outfielder Jose Bautista can turn back the clock after his tough 2016 campaign, perhaps it won’t matter. Marcus Stroman heads the starting rotation after his MVP turn in the World Baseball Classic for Team USA. But the Blue Jays bullpen will miss both Brett Cecil, now a Cardinal, and Joaquin Benoit. Leading off • Second baseman Devon Travis led off 43 times last season, most on the team. But he drew just four walks in 199 plate appearances atop the order — hence his odd .309/.323/.459 slash line as the No. 1 hitter. A nagging knee injury shelved him for much of spring training, giving center fielder Kevin Pillar plenty of leadoff work. Pillar didn’t shine in 92 plate appearances there last season, posting a .231 on-base percentage, but he showed well this spring.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

2016 record • 89-73 Outlook • The Orioles possess a questionable starting rotation beyond young studs Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Chris Tillman is struggling to overcome shoulder issues, and the No. 5 spot is up for grabs. But the O’s bullpen, led by closer Zach Britton, is elite. Middle relievers Brad Brach, Darren O’ Day and Mychel Givens shorten games. That’s why the O’s went 21-16 in one-run games last season despite having the highest team earned-run average of any playoff club. Re-signing sluggers Mark Trumbo (47 homers) and Pedro Alvarez (to a minor league deal) to support Chris Davis (38 homers) and Manny Machado (37) made sense. Bombs away! Leading off • Center fielder Adam Jones posted a .282/.320/.471 slash line when atop the batting order last season. He smashed 24 homers and drove in 64 runs, but he drew just 26 walks in 488 plate appearances. He has topped .330 in on-base percentage just twice in nine full big-league seasons.

NEW YORK YANKEES

2016 record • 84-78 Outlook • The Yankees are stockpiling elite prospects like catcher Gary Sanchez, outfielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Gleyber Torres while biding their time before their next big free-agent spending spree. Regaining closer Aroldis Chapman in free agency was huge. Signing longtime Cardinals heartthrob Matt Holliday was less huge, but helpful. He could shine as a fulltime DH. Holliday, fellow newcomer Chris Carter and comeback case Greg Bird will launch some homers between all their strikeouts. But what about that rotation beyond Masahiro Tanaka? And who fills in for injured shortstop Didi Gregorius? Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes and our old friend Pete Kozma were competing for the role as spring training wound down. Leading off • Veteran Bret Gardner did a solid job last season hitting first (.347 on-base percentage) and second (.354 OBP) in the batting order. He stole 16 bases in 20 tries, a far cry from the 96 bases he swiped during a twoseason span earlier in his career.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

2016 record • 68-94 Outlook • Adding elite pitching prospect Jose De Leon in the Logan Forsythe trade brought additional potential to a talented young staff that features budding star Chris Archer and, sooner rather than later, Brent Honeywell. Former Cardinals phenom Colby Rasmus will hit some dead-pull homers once he recovers from hip surgery. Catcher Wilson Ramos could offer a midseason boost once he recovers from his latest knee injury. Tampa Bay’s 13-27 record in one-run games in 2016 offers ample room for improvement this season. Leading off • Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier produced a .356 on-base percentage in 222 plate appearances as a No. 2 hitter last season. His walk rate improved from 4.5 percent in 2015 to 9.7 in 2016. But Kiermaier stayed in the No. 2 slot during spring games while outfielder Corey Dickerson (career .326 OBP) and first baseman Logan Morrison (career .325 OBP) auditioned to replace Forsythe as the leadoff hitter.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

2016 record • 81-81 Outlook • The Royals became trendsetters with a shutdown bullpen that helped change how Our National Pastime viewed middle relief. They still have a hammer with closer Kelvin Herrera, but this season they are counting on comeback case Seth Maness, a former Cardinals workhorse, to fill a void. The death of starter Yordano Ventura compromised a rotation that lacks proven quality beyond Danny Duffy. Newcomers Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss (if he recovers from his Cardinals collapse) should provide some offensive pop, but the Royals need a healthy and productive Mike Moustakas this season. Leading off • Alcides Escobar spent about half of last season atop the order, where he produced a dismal .269 on-base percentage. In 367 at-bats there he drew just 13 walks. Yikes! While Escobar was playing in the World Baseball Classic, outfielder Alex Gordon excelled in the leadoff role this spring, as he did earlier in his Royals career. Gordon had a .377 OBP two seasons back but struggled to a .220/.312/.380 slash line last season.

MINNESOTA TWINS

2016 record • 59-103 Outlook • It’s time for youngsters like Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano to become impact players in the big leagues. If that happens, the Twins will rank among the sport’s most improved teams. But losing potential starting pitcher Trevor May to a seasonending elbow injury during the spring didn’t help. Lingering shoulder problems for reliever Glen Perkins also are a concern. Pitching prospects J.T. Chargois and Jake Reed could factor in the mix sooner rather than later. Leading off • Last year Brian Dozier pounded 42 homers while serving as the team’s most frequent hitter in the No. 1 slot. But the Twins could use his power lower in the order — or as a trade chip to fetch more prospects and expedite their rebuild. The speedy Buxton auditioned for leadoff work during the spring, but can he get on base enough to fill that role? In his final 113 plate appearances last season he had a .357 on-base percentage, so there is promise. Among the others hitting leadoff this spring was veteran walk machine and base clogger Joe Mauer.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

2016 record • 78-84 Outlook • Trading ace pitcher Chris Sale to the Red Sox facilitated the franchise’s complete makeover. Elite infield prospect Yoan Moncada came from Boston in that deal, and he could become a fixture in the middle of the batting order. Pitching prospects Lucas Giolito (who struggled through a difficult spring) and Reynaldo Lopez came from Washington in the Adam Eaton trade. Dealing assets Jose Quintana, David Roberston, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu this season to speed the rebuilding (tanking) process could add to an impressive young talent base. Leading off • Charlie Tilson, the hard-luck former Cardinals prospect, tore a hamstring during his big-league debut for the White Sox last season. Then he suffered a foot injury this spring. Back in his Cardinals days, he lost a developmental year to a shoulder injury. Between breakdowns, he has shown potential as a center fielder and top-of-the-order hitter. While he was sidelined again this spring, the White Sox explored a variety of options for the role, including former Cardinals fly chaser Peter Bourjos and fellow outfielders Jacob May and Leury Garcia.

2016 record • 95-67 Outlook • After muscling up last season to win their second straight AL West title, the Rangers saw run producers Carlos Beltran (Houston) and Ian Desmond (Colorado) cash in via free agency. Late 2016 arrivals Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez are back, though, and newcomer Mike Napoli should still have a few homers left in him. Second baseman Rougned Odor is one of the more promising hitters in the game. Outfielder Nomar Mazara possesses big potential, but he must improve on his plate discipline (112 strikeouts vs. just 39 walks). Perennial prospect Jurickson Profar may finally settle on as a left fielder after moving around the infield. Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels head a talented but injury-prone starting rotation. Leading off • Delino DeShields Jr. hoped to be the leadoff guy last season, but he spent much of the year doing remedial work in the minors. Gomez arrived from Houston to help fill that void, producing a .386 on-base percentage in 17 games hitting leadoff. He should get first crack at the job when healthy, but veteran Shin-Soo Choo (career .386 OBP when hitting No. 1) can fill in as needed.

SEATTLE MARINERS

2016 record • 86-76 Outlook • General manager Jerry Dipito made a flurry of trades in the offseason, adding, among others, infielder Jean Segura (.319, 41 doubles, 20 homers, 60 RBIs, 33 steals in Arizona), first baseman Danny Valencia, outfielder Jarrod Dyson, catcher Carlos Ruiz and pitchers Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly. Dipito is in “win now” mode given his slew of expiring contracts and the advanced age of second baseman Robinson Cano, outfielder Nelson Cruz and pitchers Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. Hopefully the Mariners are also stockpiling some prospects because things could get ugly in two to three years. Edwin Diaz, 23, emerged as one of the game’s promising closers last year. Leading off • Dyson was better as a part-time leadoff hitter (.360 OBP in 114 plate appearances) in Kansas City than he was as a part-time No. 9 hitter (.300 OBP in 153 plate appearances). So he could stay atop the order while speedy center fielder Leonys Martin hits ninth. Center fielder Guillermo Heredia, a Cuban import, also made a strong case during the spring.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

2016 record • 74-88 Outlook • Even if Garrett Richards gets healthy and Bud Norris regains his old form, the starting pitching in Anaheim is questionable. Elbow injuries to Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano left the staff thin, given the medical histories of Matt Shoemaker and Tyler Skaggs. The Angels lack depth in the bullpen, too, because Huston Street and Andrew Bailey aren’t the door-slammers they once were. Cam Bedrosian is the presumed closer-in-waiting. Run production shouldn’t be a problem, with Kole Calhoun breaking out in support of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, but this big-spending franchise has fallen woefully behind in the arms race. Leading off • Veteran infielder Yunel Escobar swiped zero bases last season, but he did produce a .356 on-base percentage in 565 at bats in the leadoff role — and a .377 OBP in the first at-bat of the game. Calhoun, who improved his walk rate from 6.6 percent to 10.0 percent, and newcomer Cameron Maybin were among the others getting spring looks atop the order.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

2016 record • 69-93 Outlook • Would-be ace Sonny Gray slipped to 5-11 with a 5.69 ERA during his injury-marred 2016 campaign, then suffered a lat strain in the spring that could sideline him for a while. There is promise but not much experience with the rest of the rotation. Santiago Casilla should stabilize the bullpen and slugger Khris Davis leads an attack that swings for the fences — but also posted the AL’s worst on-base percentage (.304) last season. All-Star catcher Stephen Vogt is among those trying to be more selective at the plate this season. Leading off • Rookie second baseman Joey Wendle spent some of September atop the order after the A’s traded Coco Crisp. The A’s looked at options this spring, including outfield newcomers Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce and Alejandro De Aza, a non-roster invitee. Davis stole 43 bases for the Indians last season but produced an untidy .306 OBP.


BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S29

THREE-PEAT

Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers should retain their division titles BY JEFF GORDON • St. Louis Post-Dispatch

NL EAST

NL CENTRAL

Turner

NL WEST

Arrieta

AP

Urias

AP

AP

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

CHICAGO CUBS

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

2016 record • 95-67 Outlook • Versatile Trea Turner could break out as one of the sport’s more explosive talents. He hit 13 homers and stole 33 bases in a half season’s work in Washington last year. Outfielder Bryce Harper could get back on track toward that $400 million contract he wants. Catcher Matt Wieters, if healthy, could offset the loss of Wilson Ramos to a late-season knee injury, then free agency. But can first baseman Ryan Zimmerman stay healthy and relocate his power stroke? Newcomer Adam Lind offers protection if he can’t. And after Mark Melancon’s exit via free agency, who will emerge as the closer? A shaky bullpen could undermine a fabulous starting rotation led by Max Scherzer (when back from his finger injury) and Stephen Strasburg. Leading off • The Nationals acquired center fielder Adam Eaton from the White Sox after he posted a .360 on-base percentage in 478 at-bats as a leadoff hitter last season. But manager Dusty Baker is intrigued by what the speedy Turner (.370 OBP in 73 games) could do atop the order.

2016 record • 103-58 Outlook • Losing closer Aroldis Chapman to free agency was a blow, but newcomer Wade Davis should be a decent replacement. Losing table setter Dexter Fowler to the Cardinals via free agency also hurt, but a full season of slugger Kyle Schwarber should more than offset that. This team’s only hole might be center field, where Jon Jay arrived as protection for young Albert Almora Jr. Also, how long can veteran starting pitchers Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and former Cardinal John Lackey keep getting it done? Leading off • Ben Zobrist led off 47 times for Tampa and he filled in some for Fowler last season. But with Fowler gone, manager Joe Maddon has been toying with the lumbering Schwarber as his leadoff hitter and either Jay (a former Cardinals leadoff hitter) or Almora batting ninth, behind the pitcher. Maddon likes Zobrist in the middle of the order, where he delivered 61 RBIs in the fourth and fifth spots last season.

2016 record • 91-71 Outlook • Still seeking their first National League pennant since 1988, the Dodgers bring a powerful blend of proven veterans (especially hurler Clayton Kershaw) and talented youngsters (especially shortstop Corey Seager) into this playoff race. Elite pitching prospect Julio Urias should break out as a topof-the-rotation talent. The retention of third baseman Justin Turner, starting pitcher Rich Hill and closer Kenley Jansen kept the Dodgers right on the tail of the Cubs. Sorting through all the outfielders will be quite the challenge for manager Dave Roberts, although Yasiel Puig could simplify things by finally settling in. Leading off • The Dodgers acquired second baseman Logan Forsythe from Tampa to hit at the top of the order. Although he has the reputation for delivering grinding at-bats and making pitchers work, Forsythe posted a modest .333 on-base percentage for the Rays last season and stole only six bags.

NEW YORK METS

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

MIAMI MARLINS

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2016 record • 87-75 Outlook • Keeping slugger Yoenis Cespedes was critical to the offense, but it doesn’t upgrade outfield defense featuring Curtis Granderson in center field and an aging Jay Bruce in right. Juan Lagares is a legitimate center fielder, but he has a career on-base plus slugging percentage of .664. Noah Syndergaard leads a potentially powerful starting rotation ... if the other pitchers can get healthy. Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Steve Matz and Jacob deGrom have battled injuries. Third baseman David Wright is struggling with a shoulder injury, and shortstop Jose Reyes also carries an extensive injury history into this season. Leading off • Granderson labored as a leadoff hitter last season, batting just .218 with a .317 on-base percentage in 369 plate appearances atop the order. He just turned 36, so its seems unrealistic to expect a big upturn. 2016 record • 79-82 Outlook • There is no replacing the late Jose Fernandez, of course, but the Marlins added needed pitching depth with starters Edinson Volquez, Jeff Locke (currently slowed by a biceps strain) and Dan Straily, as well as relievers Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. A full season from former 16-game winner Wei-Yin Chen would help, too. Outfielders Christian Yelich (21 homers, up from seven in 2015) and Marcel Ozuna (23 homers, up from 10) broke out last year, joining the monstrous Giancarlo Stanton to give Miami perhaps the most powerful outfield in baseball. Leading off • Second baseman Dee Gordon puts speed at the top of the order. He stole 30 bases in 37 tries last season after returning from his 80-game performanceenhancing drug suspension. The year before he swiped 58 in 145 games. His on-base percentage slipped from .359 in 2015 to .305 last season, but the Marlins can expect a bounce-back campaign from him.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2016 record • 71-91 Outlook • Offseason moves strengthened a young team moving closer to breakout. First baseman Ryan Howard exited after his contract expired, but productive veterans Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders (24 homers last year in Toronto) should relieve pressure on key young hitters Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. Joaquin Benoit strengthens the bullpen, and Clay Buchholz upgrades a rotation featuring promising youngsters Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff. During a nine-game stretch last season, Nola was 5-2 with a 1.68 earned-run average, 62 strikeouts and just 45 hits allowed in 59 innings before he encountered elbow trouble. Leading off • Second baseman Cesar Hernandez posted a .405 on-base percentage when leading off last season, so leaving him there would make sense. He puts speed at the top of the order, although he needs to work on base-stealing after getting thrown out 13 times in 30 attempts.

ATLANTA BRAVES

2016 record • 68-93 Outlook • After undergoing a scorched-earth rebuild, the Braves imported several veterans to support their move into a new ballpark. Outfielder Matt Kemp arrived from San Diego last season and finished with 35 homers and 108 RBIs. First baseman Freddie Freeman was glad to gain him in the middle of the order. Adding starting pitcher Jaime Garcia from the Cardinals should be a plus, but how much does second baseman Brandon Phillips have left after finally accepting a trade out of Cincinnati? And can knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and 900-year-old Bartolo Colon bolster the rotation in the twilight of their careers? Leading off • Outfielder Ender Inciarte embraced his tablesetting role last season, hitting .308 with a .372 on-base percentage in his 354 plate appearances atop the order. He became the regular leadoff hitter in August and hit .341 (72 for 211) with 43 runs during a 48-game span. He posted a .341/.396/.440 slash line during the second half of the season.

2016 record • 86-76 Outlook • The analytics community was down on the Cardinals even before pitcher Alex Reyes underwent Tommy John surgery. There are lots of “what ifs” with this team. What if Randal Grichuk builds on his strong 2016 finish and settles in as a productive left fielder? What if Kolten Wong finally puts it together at second base? What if Michael Wacha pushes through his shoulder trouble and Lance Lynn recovers nicely from his elbow repairs? What if Trevor Rosenthal transforms into a midgame relief hammer? There is a path to 95 victories with this team, but a road to 85, too. Leading off • The switch-hitting Fowler produced an on-base percentage north of .360 in six of his last eight seasons for the Rockies, Astros and Cubs. By assuming that role with the Cardinals he pushes Matt Carpenter down in the batting order and adds length to the attack. Fowler also adds speed to a team that featured a station-to-station offense last season. 2016 record • 78-83 Outlook • Andrew McCutchen is predicting a monster season for 2017, which the Pirates would welcome. His alarming regression made him the subject of trade rumors as Starling Marte bumped him out of center field and Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell continued their progression. Pittsburgh’s offense should be just fine. Ace starter Gerrit Cole looks good on a comeback from elbow problems, and Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon could be ready to break out. Expect to see the Pirates back in the race. Leading off • Handyman John Jaso got 329 plate appearances at the top of the order last season, producing a .341 on-base percentage, but he may not have a regular lineup spot now. Versatile Adam Frazier got some leadoff looks (77 plate appearances) as a rookie last season and again in spring training with second baseman Josh Harrison away at the World Baseball Classic. Harrison produced a .347 OBP in 176 plate appearances leading off last year.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2016 record • 73-89 Outlook • The Brewers stole 181 bases last season and could swipe even more with speedy Keon Broxton bidding for the everyday center field job. Infielder Jonathan Villar stole 62 bases in 80 tries to set the tempo. Even Korean import Eric Thames can run a bit; the slugger stole 40 bases two years ago for the intrepid NC Dinos. But midway into a total rebuild, Milwaukee’s pitching lags well behind the offense. Newcomer Neftali Feliz could provide a stopgap, but holes still abound. And is this the year slugger Ryan Braun finally departs in a trade? Leading off • Infielder Jonathan Villar was brilliant last season, hitting .288 with a .369 on-base percentage and 58 stolen bases in 565 plate appearances as the leadoff hitter. He set the tone for this go-go attack. Broxton also has the tools to hit first; he produced a .354 OBP and 23 stolen bases in 244 big-league plate appearances last season.

CINCINNATI REDS

2016 record • 68-94 Outlook • Dropping the plunger on this team was painful but necessary. Dealing second base fixture Brandon Phillips created opportunity for young infielders like speedster Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. Will shortstop Zach Cozart be the next to go in the rebuild? Joey Votto (.985 on-base plus slugging percentage last year) figures to stick around through this makeover. The Reds are short on pitching all around, even with the addition of reliever Drew Storen and the successful shift of Raisel Iglesias to the bullpen. Anthony DeSclafani’s sore elbow only makes things worse. They must add more prospects like Luis Castillo, swiped from Seattle in the Dan Straily trade. Leading off • Base stealer Billy Hamilton has come a long way at the plate. Last season he produced a .357 on-base percentage as the leadoff hitter, drawing 23 walks in his 198 plate appearances in that role. Overall he batted .260 and stole 58 bases in 66 tries. He and Peraza could run wild as the Reds try to win the team stolen-base title.

2016 record • 87-75 Outlook • Securing closer Mark Melancon should help offset the losses of Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo in free agency. The Giants lost some relief depth — especially with Will Smith’s season-ending elbow injury — but gained a hammer at the back of the bullpen. This team needed to add a left fielder too, but didn’t. The Giants went into the spring hoping Jarrett Parker and/or Mac Williamson could fill that void. Right fielder Hunter Pence turns 34 in April, and injuries limited him to 158 games combined for the last two seasons. The Giants need a healthy Pence and a bounceback season from second baseman Joe Panik (who hit just .239 last season) to support strong starting pitching led by Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Leading off • Center fielder Denard Span was a mild disappointment in this role last season, hitting .266 with a so-so .331 on-base percentage and just 12 stolen bases in 19 tries. At 33, is he on a downward production slope?

COLORADO ROCKIES

2016 record • 75-87 Outlook • Say, are the Rockies finally assembling a promising pitching staff? Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Jeff Hoffman and German Marquez offer some real growth potential. Sadly, pitcher Chad Bettis has had to step aside to resume his battle against testicular cancer. Their bullpen will benefit from the addition of Greg Holland and Mike Dunn and a full season of Adam Ottavino — the former Cardinals hurler who returned from Tommy John surgery last season. Colorado held on to outfielder Charlie Blackmon and added Ian Desmond for some reason, so slugging third baseman Nolan Arenado should have ample offensive help once Desmond recovers from his broken hand. Leading off • It’s no wonder the Cardinals showed trade interest in Blackmon after last season. And it’s no wonder the Rockies kept him. He set a team record by driving in 82 runs in 135 games in the leadoff spot while hitting .325 with a .380 on-base percentage. Blackmon filled up box scores with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 17 stolen bases and 110 runs scored.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2016 record • 69-93 Outlook • Can former Cardinal Shelby Miller rebuild his game after his 2016 collapse? The D’backs hope so, because they are counting on starting pitching as a strength. They also need Zack Greinke to rebound from a so-so debut season in Phoenix and newcomer Taijuan Walker (acquired from Seattle) to improve on a 19-19 mark for the last two seasons. Bouncing back from the Tony La Russa-Dave Stewart Reign of Error will be no small feat. Leading off • Two seasons ago, A.J. Pollock hit .315 with a .367 on-base percentage and 39 stolen bases while batting mostly first or second in the order. Last season he suffered a broken elbow at the end of spring training and didn’t return until the end of August, hitting mostly in the No. 2 and No. 3 slots. Will the 2015 version of Pollock return this year?

SAN DIEGO PADRES

2016 record • 68-94 Outlook • Remember when the Padres spent big while trying to hang with the Dodgers? That was a bad idea. After traveling the tank-and-rebuild route, the Padres will be more fun to watch with youngsters Manuel Margot, Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe leading the charge back to respectability. Will Myers finally broke out last season with 28 homers and 28 stolen bases, but can he stay healthy? Pitching remains an issue. To wit, newcomer Jered Weaver lost his fastball years ago and he may be San Diego’s No. 1 starter. Leading off • Margot, a top center field prospect, made a bid for this role in spring training after stealing 30 bases in 41 tries for Triple-A El Paso last year. But he drew just 36 walks in 566 plate appearances, so there is work to do. Outfielder Travis Jankowski hit .258 in 74 games in the leadoff spot last season and showed potential with a .346 on-base percentage and 25 stolen bases (in 33 tries) in that role.


BASEBALL PREVIEW

S30 • ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

M 1 • SUNDAY • 04.02.2017

WRITERS’ PREDICTIONS DERRICK GOOLD

RICK HUMMEL

JESUS ORTIZ

BENJAMIN HOCHMAN

BEN FREDERICKSON

JEFF GORDON

NL CENTRAL NL WEST NL EAST WILD CARDS CHAMPION AL CENTRAL AL WEST AL EAST WILD CARDS CHAMPION WORLD SERIES CHAMPION

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BASEBALL PREVIEW

04.02.2017 • SUNDAY • M 1

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH • S31

MEDIA VIEWS

CAN’T GET TOO MUCH National telecasts again will feature the Cardinals numerous times

DAN CAESAR St. Louis Post-Dispatch

T

he television networks again are flocking to the Cardinals. The Redbirds long have been a darling of the national sports TV executives, as the telecasters that carry Major League games nationwide — ESPN and Fox — usually show them the maximum number of times they are allowed to do so under their contracts, something that’s expected again this season. “They’re easily one of our ‘A teams’ as we go and craft our overall schedule,” said Dan Ochs, director of content, strategy and acquisitions for ESPN. “They’ve got a few things going for them from our perspective that sometimes translate to viewership. Obviously they have a passionate local fan base, but what’s important for us is they have a national following. Of course they’re a competitive team on the field year in and year out. That’s a nice formula when we’re thinking about our ‘Sunday Night Baseball’ schedule.” But things will be ramped up even more this Sunday, when the Cards entertain the defending World Series champion Cubs — something that never has happened in the lifetime of just about everyone in the United States. Although there are a couple big-league games set for Sunday afternoon to start the season — Yankees-Rays at 12:10 p.m. on ESPN and Giants-Diamondbacks at 3:10 p.m. on ESPN2 — Cards-Cubs is the stand-alone prime-time opener and ESPN is televising it nationally as its Sunday night package makes its debut for 2017. Dan Shulman is on play-by-play, Aaron Boone and Jessica Mendoza provide analysis and Buster Olney is the reporter. “You take everything I just said, then you add to that formula the fact they’re playing their biggest rival — who happens to be defending their first World Series title in 108 years — and it appears to be a perfect storm,” Ochs said. “We’re thrilled about that opening-night matchup.” The game is set to begin at 7:35 p.m., about a half-hour later than “Sunday Night Baseball” normally starts. That’s because ESPN shows the women’s NCAA Tournament basketball title game before that, which is scheduled to start at 5 p.m. To that end, ESPN2 will carry its “Baseball Tonight” program leading into

ODDS TO WIN WORLD SERIES

ODDS TO WIN NL PENNANT

ODDS TO WIN AL PENNANT

Team Chicago Cubs Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals San Francisco Giants Houston Astros New York Mets Toronto Blue Jays St. Louis Cardinals New York Yankees Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Arizona Diamondbacks Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox Tampa Bay Rays Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers

Teams Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals San Francisco Giants New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Arizona Diamondbacks Miami Marlins Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers

Team Boston Red Sox Cleveland Indians Houston Astros Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees Texas Rangers Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox Tampa Bay Rays Minnesota Twins Oakland Athletics

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ODDS TO WIN THE NL CENTRAL Teams Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers

Open Current 1/5 1/5 5/1 5/1 10/1 10/1 30/1 30/1 30/1 30/1

five. In addition to Sunday, they are set to be on April 16 (at New York Yankees), on June 4 (at Cubs), on July 23 (at Cubs) and Aug. 20 (vs. the Pirates in Williamsport, Pa.). The latter contest will be at a minorleague ballpark in the city where the Little League World Series will be played that month. Much of the Sunday night schedule for June and August, as well as all of September, has not yet been set.

FOX FOCUS ESPN PHOTO

Dan Shulman (left), Jessica Mendoza and Aaron Boone are set to be in the ESPN broadcast booth Sunday night.

the ballgame, from 6-7:30 p.m. ESPN’s “SportsCenter” shows are to have live updates from St. Louis throughout the day. And local Cards telecaster Fox Sports Midwest is set to carry the team’s pregame festivities, starting at 6:30 p.m. The Cards have been on “Sunday Night Baseball” the maximum number of allowable times each of the last seven years. The normal maximum number this season is six, but because the stand-alone opener Sunday does not count against that figure, the Redbirds could be on seven times. “We max out on the Cardinals every year,” Ochs said. “And I expect we will this year again.” They already have been scheduled for

The Redbirds are big business for Fox, too, at the local as well as national levels. “The Cardinals are one of the power clubs in all of baseball and they help drive our ratings both regionally on Fox Sports Midwest and also nationally,” said Bill Wanger, executive vice president of programming, live operations and research for Fox Sports. “Nationally they out-deliver our average (rating) and have been part of some great postseason games over the years. They are a marquee franchise for sure.” He points out that FSM often has the highest-rated prime-time show on St. Louis television on nights it has the Cards — 61 times last season of the 96 such appearances the team made on the outlet last year. And the team has finished among the top three U.S.-based teams in local ratings for 17 consecutive years. To that end, Fox is showing the Red-

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birds the maximum number of times it can this season — five — on its over-theair network (KTVI, Channel 2 locally) as part of its Saturday package of regional telecasts. And they will be on the Fox Sports cable outlet FS1 six times. Wanger said there are a variety of factors for all the exposure, citing their “tradition of winning and a really well-run organization,” he said. “They have had their share of star players going back decades. All that leads to people paying attention and wanting to see them.” Much like ESPN, which already has locked in three Cards-Cubs games on Sunday nights, Fox-FS1 has scheduled three contests between those teams. (Two of them also will be shown in the Cardinals’ territory by Fox Sports Midwest.) “The thing we’re most excited about (with the Cardinals) is the quality of our match-ups,” Wanger said, pointing out that Fox-FS1 also has two against the Giants and Pirates and one vs. the Nationals and Royals. “These are top-flight matchups, really strong.”

RADIO REPORT Sunday will be a busy day at Cardinals Radio Network flagship station KMOX (1120 AM). It has a Redbirds season preview show set for 1-2:30 p.m., hosted by Tom Ackerman and Chris Hrabe. Pregame programing for the BluesNashville game follows, with the game broadcast starting at 3 o’clock. Cardinals pregame programming follows, hosted by Hrabe. Then Mike Shannon and John Rooney call the game, with postgame coverage set to air until midnight. Dan Caesar • 314-340-8175 @caesardan on Twitter dcaesar@post-dispatch.com

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