Table B1: Methods of projection for various parts of the Lima-Callao Baseline
Activity
Projection Method
Useful Data
Population of Lima-Callao
Actual data extrapolated past 2014 using a growth factor equal to that given by the UNDP41. We assume that the growth rate for Peru is the same for Lima-Callao. In this case, our estimations is very near to the Minister of Economy’s when they consider an intermediate scenario.
We estimate Lima-Callao’s population to be 9.4million in 2014 and predict a rise to 11.2 million by 2030.
GDP
We calculated GDP per capita of Peru by dividing total GDP with population of Peru (see above box). With this, we calculated GDP of Lima-Callao by multiplying GDP per capita of Peru with the population of Lima-Callao. Our main assumption is the economic growth rate of Lima-Callao is the same as Peru42.
We find that Lima-Callao’s GDP in 2014 is predicted to be US$66.1 billion, and if recent trends continue we forecast that GDP will grow to US$135 billion by 2030. This means that the average per capita income in Lima-Callao was US$6,989 in 2014 and that with projected rates of economic and population growth we predict that this will grow to US$12,148 by 2030.
Sectoral GDP
We used elements of Lima’s Regional GDP data to develop industrial and service sector growth rates for Lima-Callao. This data is used to predict the commercial sector fuel use, where limited data and other methods of projection were available.
US$: Peruvian Soles Exchange Rate
Held constant at 2014 exchange rate.43
US$: PEN 1: 2.8 for 1 Jan 2014.
Waste water emissions
Downscaled from national emissions and linked to population growth. This figure is then split between industrial, commercial and residential end users based on water usage data provided by Sedapal.
2014 estimate 417ktCO2e.
Process emissions
Estimates: 2014 791KtCO2e ; 2030 791 Based on linear extrapolation of 2nd National Communication 2000 and 2009 KtCO2e. data and then scaled using Lima-Callao and national population ratio. Assumed only 50% of the figure as other data covers some liquid fuel use. Data held constant from 2009.
Electricity generation
Linear projection based on figures for electrical energy generation per capita (and therefore also linked to population growth).
Estimated consumption per capita: 2014 1,729Kwh; 2030 2,666Kwh.
Electricity emission factor
Post 2014: APEC electricity projections used to calculate fuel used using constant 2014 specific fuel consumption factor (i.e. no technological improvements). 20002012: fuel use and emissions calculated from true data.44
Emission Factor Calculated 2014: 0.24tCO2e /MWh; 2030: 0.28tCO2e /MWh (higher proportion of gas on grid increases the overall emission factor).
Activity
Projection Method
Useful Data
The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities
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