Chapter 6. Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations From a climate perspective, the analysis in this report suggests that Lima-Callao can reduce its carbon emissions by 30% from a business as usual scenario by exploiting the range of cost-effective and cost-neutral measures. Reducing emissions by this amount is highly feasible. The technological and behavioural options identified in this research are currently available, the energy and financial savings are clear (and are based on conservative estimates), the investments show real economic returns and feasible payback periods and the assumptions – regarding costs, implementation rates and impacts – have been reviewed by stakeholder committees, focus groups and a formal review process and found to be realistic and achievable. The economic returns on these investments could be very significant. Many measures would pay for themselves over short periods of time and at competitive interest rates. The measures we have suggested have the potential to significantly change future levels of energy use, energy bills and carbon emissions in Lima-Callao. However, the presence of an economic case for investment should be seen as a necessary but not a sufficient condition for action. The economic case needs to be supplemented with political will, social support and institutional capacities – and it is critically important that any investments made are also more broadly sustainable. By ranking measures and groups of measures against these broader criteria, some measures seem to be attractive politically, socially, institutionally and environmentally, even under current conditions. We recognise that implementation of any particular measure, or set of measures, will require a more indepth financial analysis than we have been able to provide. Importantly, individual measures will need to be adopted in a way that considers their effect on different socio-economic groups and their wider sustainability issues. If initiatives are designed and delivered in the right way, there is clear potential for investments to provide significant co-benefits for example so that they benefit the poorest communities, improve air quality and public health, enhance employment and the economy, improve energy security and access and enhance the quality of life in Lima-Callao.
The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities
Transition, however, requires political and social as well as financial capital. The levels of ambition, foresight and activity needed to exploit the opportunities available are substantial. New investment and financing models are needed to enable measures to be exploited. Stimulating the supply of and demand for low carbon, climate resilient investment is likely to require new forms for cost recovery and benefit sharing, and new approaches to managing risk. Furthermore, significant institutional capacity building is likely to be required to allow the implementation of many of these measures, particularly those that require public sector finance or an enabling policy environment. It is clear that the list of energy and water efficiency measures identified in this report may not be complete. New measures could contribute to a lower cost transition to a low carbon, climate resilient economy and enable the further or deeper decarbonisation of Lima-Callao post-2030. And fundamentally, we should recognize that economics is not the only discipline that has something useful to say on the transition to a low carbon economy/ society. The multi-criteria analysis in this report considers issues of social and political acceptability as well as issues relating to social equity and the broader sustainability of alternative paths to a low carbon economy/society. It highlights the need for international support, governmental leadership, better coordinated cross-sectoral policies, improved environmental impact assessment, enhanced legal enforcement, better stakeholder engagement and increased public awareness building. Finally, we note that this project was undertaken in parallel with a number of other projects focused on Lima-Callao’s current carbon footprint and future emissions strategy . For Lima-Callao to make clear progress with its emissions, a detailed accounting methodology needs to be implemented within the city and the availability of data needs to be improved to allow a clear and consistent comparison of emissions performance across the city.
87