EC - Study Guide by Institute of Research & Training on European Affairs

EUropa.S. 2019

April 19 - 22nd | University of Piraeus

Organized by: Institute of Research & Training on European Affairs

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council

Study Guide Topic: The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

Table of Contents Table of Contents____________________________________________________ 2 Greeting of the Board ________________________________________________ 3 Introduction to European Council ______________________________________ 4 Introduction of the Topic _____________________________________________ 5 Historical Background ________________________________________________ 5 Legal Framework ____________________________________________________ 8 Challenges _________________________________________________________ 11 Security Challenges_______________________________________________________ 11 Financial Challenges ______________________________________________________ 12 Social Challenges ________________________________________________________ 15 The Challenge of Scotland and N. Ireland _____________________________________ 18

Actions that have been done _________________________________________ 20 Perspectives _______________________________________________________ 22 Questions Raised ___________________________________________________ 23 Bibliography _______________________________________________________ 24 Further Reading ____________________________________________________ 28 Useful Links ________________________________________________________ 29

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EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

Greeting of the Board Distinguished Heads of States and Governments, It is our great honor to welcome you to EUropa.S. 2019 and specifically to the European Council. This year’s topic, “The question of UK-EU relations post Brexit; security financial and social challenges”, is a priority in the current EU agenda, a topic that has kept not only the European Union but also the whole world on the edge of their seat. As the Board of the European Council, we hope that this document will guide you throughout your studying and preparation for this year’s EUropa.S., will prove to be a useful tool in your effort to deepen your knowledge on the topic under discussionand will motivate you to conduct your own further research. We would like to inform you that the study guide includes information and relevant events leading up to the 30th November 2018. The European Council constitutes one of the simulated European institutions with t experienced participants, who are involvedevery year to get acquainted with its functioning and its substantial role in the European Union. This April, we are waiting each and every one of you to transform yourselves into a Head of State or Government, actively participate in our heated debates, collaborate and reach productive conclusions. We wish that the committee proceedings will be full of excitement, heated debates and professionalism. Last but not least, should you have any inquiries feel free to contact us. We are really looking forward to meeting you all this April, in the 10 th edition of EUropa.S. Get ready for an amazing experience! Welcome to the European Council! Kind Regards, The Board of the European Council

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EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

Introduction to European Council Since the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Council (EC) represents the highest level of political cooperation between EU countries1. It sets the EU's policy agenda by defining its general political direction and priorities. However, it is not a legislative institution, therefore it does not negotiate or adopt EU laws 2. Furthermore, it adopts conclusions which become public after every meeting of the EC. The purposes of the conclusions are the identification of specific issues of concern for the EU and the outline of actions or goals necessary for each issue 3. It decides upon the conclusions with consensusapart from the cases that the Treaties state otherwise and only the heads of state or government have the right to vote4. The EC consists of the heads of state or government of the EU member states, the European Council President and the President of the European Commission. When the agenda of the EC concerns issues of foreign policy, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy also participates. The President of the EC is elected by the heads of state or government for a once-renewable two and a half year term5. The President, presides over the EC’s meetingswith the aim of facilitating cohesion and consensus among the member states during its proceedings, represents the EU to the international arena, ensures in cooperation with the President of the Commission, the preparation of European Council meetings and the continuity of their work and informs the European Parliament after every meeting of the EC.6

Pliakos, A. 2012. The Law of the European Union. Athens: NomikiBibliothiki Group, p.194. Moussis, N., 2011. Europedia.moussis.eu. [Online] Available http://www.europedia.moussis.eu/books/Book_2/2/4/1/1/?all=1 [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 3 European Union, n.d. The European Council. [Online] Available https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 4 Pliakos, A. 2012. The Law of the European Union]. Athens: NomikiBibliothiki Group, p.194. 5 European Union, n.d. The European Council. [Online] Available https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 6 European Union, n.d. The President's role. [Online] Available https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/president/role/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 2

at: at:

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EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

Introduction of the Topic From economic to security issues, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and N. Ireland and the rest of the 27 European Union Member-States have embarked upon a series of negotiations after the 2016 referendum, so that the UK formally exits the European Union. Both sides face many challenges (economic, social, security) which need to be dealt with. Evidently, this is a long and difficult process and since no other country has ever left the EU the scenarios concerning the relationship between the EU and the UK are endless. The Brexit will affect not only the British citizens but also the citizens of the EU. Given the fact that the EU was a net contributor to the EU budget, a big economy and a big military power in comparison to other MemberStates, undoubtedly its departure will be more that noticeable. How the Brexit negotiations will end, what will the future relationship between the two sides be it remains to be seen. Below, you can find a short historical overview of the history behind UK’s decision to leave the EU, an analysis of the challenges the UK and the EU face post Brexit as well as a summary of the final withdrawal deal of the 26 th November.

Historical Background The relationship between the EU and the UK has always been characterized by a troublesome dialogue of ambivalence. After World War II, the Prime Minister of UK, Winston Churchill, embraced the idea of the “United States of Europe” as this would tie European nations so closely together that a war would become “not only unthinkable but also materially impossible”7. At the same time however, he clarified UK’s position in this formation; “We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked, but not comprised. We are interested and associated, but not absorbed. We have our own dream and our own task”8. This speech defined the way the UK viewed its relation with the EU the following years and explains its decisionnot to join the European Coal and Steel Community (1951). Things changed however a decade later when the UK, under the pressure of the economic crisis it was facing, applied to join the European Economic Community 7

European Union, 2017. The Schuman Declaration – 9 May 1950. [Online].Available at: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/symbols/europe-day/schumandeclaration_en[Accessed 26 November 2018]. 8

Quentin, P., 2016. Historic misunderstanding underlies UK-EU relationship on Churchill anniversary. [Online].Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/3d6bbabc-7122-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926 [Accessed 26 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 5

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide 9 (ECC) in 1961 . After having its entry vetoed – twice by the French President, Charles de Gaulle, it finally joined the ECC in 197310.When membership was put to a referendum in 1975 more than 67% voted in favor 11 . Nevertheless, the ruling Labor Party split over the issue. As a result the pro-Europe wing split from the rest of the party and formed the Social Democratic Party (SDP)12. Tensions were fueled between the UK and the EU in 1984, when Margaret Thatcher negotiated a permanent rebate for the country to reduce its payments to the EEC budget 13 . The situation got worse when the President of the European Commission, Jacques Delors, was steering the European Community towards a more federal Europe with a single currency. M.Thatcher, rejected and strongly criticized the idea of "a European super-state exercising a newdominance from Brussels"14. Even after Thatcher’s downfall, Euroscepticism continued fueling a

Stay in EU

Leave EU

Don’t know

7-8 June 1984

12-16 September 1987

19-23 October 1989

November 1990

21 June 1991

4-5 December 1991

5-6 June 1992

21-25 October 1993

11-30 April 1994

23-26 May 1996

44 40 44 47 44 51 53

39 40 37 40 39 41 32

17 19 19 13 17 8 15

15 April 1997 2-3 October 1997 25-30 June 1998 21-24 May 1999 13-14 October 1999 22-27 June 2000

Table 1.1 Ipsos MORI, 2016. European Union membership - trends. [Online] Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/european-union-membership-trends [Accessed 27 November 2018].

Shrapnel, N., 2016. Britain will ask to join EEC – archive. [Online] Available at:hhtps://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/ eec-britain-membership-european-economiccommunity-1961-rchive[Accessed 26 November 2018]. 10

BBC, n.d. [Online] Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/1/newsid_2459000/2459167.stm[Accesse d 27 November 018]. 11 Walsh, J., 2016. Britain's 1975 Europe referendum: what was it like last time?. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/25/britains-1975-europe-referendum-what-was-itlike-last-time [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 12 ibid 13

Brown, D., 1984. Thatcher settles for 66pc rebate. [Online]. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1984/jun/27/past.eu [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 14 Margaret Thatcher Foundation, 1988. Speech to the College of Europe ("The Bruges Speech"). [Online]. Available at: https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107332[Accessed 27 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 6

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide debate about whether the future of the country lied inside or outside of the EU (see Table 1.115). In 1992, the Maastricht Treaty was signed by the PM John Major. The Maastricht Treaty involved huge transfers of power to the newly established European Union. The UK secured opt-outsfrom the single currency and the social chapter but to many, it undermined the British sovereignty.In 1997 however, when Tony Blair become the PM, the UK became a signatory to the social chapter but remained out of the Eurozone.In 2007, the Lisbon Treaty was signed and again it contained several UK opt-outs. In 2011, PM David Cameron became the first UK PM to veto an EU treaty16. The prelude of the 2016 referendum begins in 2013, when David Cameron gave the promise to renegotiate UK’s membership in the EU Results of the if Conservative Party won a majority in the 2016 referendum upcoming general elections17. At the same time, support was growing for the Eurosceptic Independence Party (UKIP). After winning the elections in May 2015, David Cameron 51.9% 48.1% renegotiated his country’s relationship with the EU on issues such as migrant welfare payments, financial safeguards and easier ways for Britain to Remain

Leave

block EU regulations18. In February 2016, the results Graph 1.2 BBC, 2016. EU Referendum- Results. [Online] of the negotiation were announced, and June 23rd Available: was set as the date of the referendum19. Meanwhile, https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/ due to the economic unrest in the Eurozone and the results[Accessed 27 November 2018]. ongoing migrant crisis, UKIP and other supporters of a possible Brexit increased. Graph 1.2 shows the results of the referendum. The UK voted to leave the 15

Ipsos MORI, 2016. European Union membership - trends. [Online] Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/european-union-membership-trends [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 16 Traynor, I., Watt, N., Gow, D. & Wintour, p., 2011. David Cameron blocks EU treaty with veto, casting Britain adrift in Europe. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/09/david-cameron-blocks-eu-treaty[Accessed 27 November 2018]. 17

BBC, 2013. David Cameron promises in/out referendum on EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21148282 [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 18

Phipps, C., Weaver, M., Quinn, B. & Rawlinson, K., 2016. EU summit: Cameron secures deal and starts campaign to keep Britain in – as it happened. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eu-summit-all-night-negotiations-dealcameron-live [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 19 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 7

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide EU by a 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent margin, but there werestark differences across the UK. Northern Ireland and Scotland voted in favor of Bremain. In Scotland, this led to renewed calls for another referendum on Scottish independence. On the other hand, England and Wales, voted in favor of Brexit20. In October 2016, Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), formally giving notice of Britain’s intent to leave the EU. The invocation of Article 50 was the starting point of the two-year countdown to Britain’s EU departure, set for March 30th, 2019.

Legal Framework On March 2017 the United Kingdom officially notified the European Council of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, in accordance with Article 50 TEU. This announcement allowed the opening of negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom and the adoption of guidelines for the BREXIT negotiations by the European Council. "We regret that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, but we are ready for the process that we now will have to follow. (...) In these negotiations the Union will act as one and preserve its interests. Our priority will be to minimize the uncertainty caused by the decision of the United Kingdom for our citizens, businesses and member states." (Statement of the European Council, 29 March 2017)21 At this point, it is essential that specific attention be given on Article 50 TEU in order to comprehend the negotiation process and the principles of the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Article 5022 states: “1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union 20

BBC, 2016. EU ReferendumResults. https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results [Accessed 27 November 2018].

[Online]

Available

at:

European Council, 2017. Special European Council (Art. 50). [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29/[Accessed 26 November 2018]. 22 European Union, 2009. The Lisbon Treaty. [Online] Available at: http://www.lisbontreaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-European-union-and-comments/title-6-finalprovisions/137-article-50.html[Accessed 26 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 8

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. 4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.” On 29 April 2017 the European Council, in accordance with Article 50 TEU, in an official EU 27 format adopted the main guidelines for BREXIT negotiations. Those guidelines defined the framework for the negotiations and set the European Union’s position during the talks with the United Kingdom23. The guidelines adopted by the European Council have of course been updated since then due to the ongoing necessary negotiations. Firstly, the European Council welcomed the European Parliament Resolution of 7 April 2017 on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its announcement to withdraw from the European Union. The Resolution of the European Parliament included clauses regarding the general principles for the negotiations, the sequencing of negotiations, the withdrawal agreement, the future European UnionUnited Kingdom relationship, the transitional arrangements, the issues for the EU-27 and the Union institutions and some main final provisions24.

Council, E., 2017. Special European Council (Art. 50), 29/04/2017. [Online] Available at:https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 24 European Parliament, 2017. European Parliament resolution of 5 April 2017 on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its notification that it intends to withdraw from the European Union. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 9

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide Furthermore, the European Council proceeded with the adoption of guidelines which specified the core principles, a phased approach to negotiations, the agreement on arrangements for an orderly withdrawal, the preliminary and preparatory discussions for the framework for the Union-United Kingdom future relationship, the principle of sincere cooperation and the procedural arrangements for negotiations under Article 50 TEU25. In order to have a more holistic approach and a deeper understanding of the issue, it is vital that some key-points of those guidelines are presented. I.

Core Principals: In the guidelines, the European Council clearly stated that the 27 Member States of the European Union will keep their unity and act as one during the negotiations with the United Kingdom. More specifically, leaders of the Member- States announced their wish to have the UK as a close partner and that any future deal should be based on a balance between rights and obligations and ensure a “level playing field”. They also stressed that the integrity of the single market must be preserved, which means the four freedoms are indivisible and excludes any cherry-picking. However, they stated that a third party cannot enjoy the same rights and benefits as a Member- State26.

II.

A phased approach to negotiations: Heads of states and governments agreed that the first phase of negotiations should aim toprovide as much clarity and legal certainty as possible and settle exit of the UK from the EU. The European Council agreed to closely monitor progress and determine when sufficient progress has been achieved in order to proceed to the next face of negotiations.An agreement on how the future relationship between the two sides-the EU and the UK- will be formed cannot be achieved until the UK becomes a third country27.

III.

Agreement on arrangements for an orderly withdrawal:The European Council stressed the importance of safeguarding the rights of citizens affected by Brexit. They highlighted the need to avoid a legal vacuum for businessesand referred to a single financial settlement that should ensure the EU and the UK respect their obligations.In view of the unique circumstances on the island of

[Online] Available at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+TA+P8TA-2017-0102+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN[Accessed 26 November 2018]. 25 European Council, 2017. European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations. [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexitguidelines/[Accessed 26 November 2018]. 26 ibid 27 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 10

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide Ireland, the European Council stressed the need to support the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process in Northern Ireland28. IV.

Preliminary and preparatory discussions for the framework for the UnionUnited Kingdom future relationship: The European Council welcomed and shared the United Kingdom's desire to establish a close partnership between the Union and the United Kingdom after the latter departs. While a relationship between the Union and a non-Member- State cannot offer the same benefits as Union membership, strong and constructive ties will remain in both sides' interest and should encompass more than just trade29.

Principle of sincere cooperation: Until it leaves the Union, the United Kingdom remains a full member of the EU, subject to all rights and obligations set out in the Treaties and under EU law. All ongoing EU business must continue to proceed as smoothly as possible at 28, and the negotiations with the United Kingdom will be kept separate from ongoing Union businessand shall not interfere with its progress.30

Challenges Security Challenges Even though, defense policy is not a competence of the EU, its Member-States cooperate on a number of related issues, such as but not limited to, research on defense technologies and joint military deployments. Because of its status as a member of the EU, the UK participates (until its official exit) in several policies, structures and institutions. The UK’s involvement in all these will be affected by Brexit, leaving the EU with an important deficit in its budget. The UK contributes greatly to EU’s security activities both financially (approximately 16% of the overall EU budget31) as well as in terms of personnel, expertise and equipment for EU missions. Brexit will create to the UK the need to recalibrate its bilateral relationships with both its EU and non-EU European neighbors as no third-party countries can take part in EU’s foreign policy decision making and diplomacy. The UK will no longer have a 28

ibid ibid 30 ibid 31 European Council on Foreign Relations, 2018. Keeping Europe safe after Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/keeping_europe_safe_after_brexit[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 29

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EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide saying on the EU’s foreign affairs and security and defense policy.32 Therefore, balancing European defense ambitions with US concerns about whether evolving EU defense co-operation will distract the European countries from their NATO commitments, will become a challenge for the UK as it will no longer be able to block the enhancement of defense ties among the EU member states. Britain is leaving as the EU launches the Permanent Defense Co-operation (PESCO). Under PESCO, the member states (except for the UK and its EU allies Malta and Denmark) agreed to proceed with shared capability projects and joint missions more closely33. Despite the fact that Brexit inevitably means that the UK loses its rights of participation in EU decision making processes, EU representatives have stated that they want to create a mechanism for cooperation and consultation with the UK on foreign policy34. How this will be done is a challenge for both sides given the sensitive nature of security and defense related issues and the intertemporal reluctance of the UK to agree on more integrated ESDP but also to extensively contribute to common intelligence sharing databases. Furthermore, Europol, Eurojust, the European Arrest Warrant and real time databases such as the Schengen Information System and Passenger Name Record data are some of the most important tools for fighting crime and terrorism the UK had access to until Brexit. Ultimate judicial oversight is provided by the ECJ35. On the other hand, EU will lose the contribution of the UK in intelligence sharing (no matter how small this contribution might currently be) creating further security issues. Thus, it is for the good of both sides to cooperate closely on this area,but a new legal framework will need to be created post-Brexit. Concerning joint missions and exercises, the UK will no longer be able to command them and any EU operation headquarters in its land will have to move to EU territory. Nevertheless, the EUdoes not want to keep Britain completely out of joint missions after Brexit. A new framework for agreeing missions will need to be created36.

Financial Challenges The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has created some serious uncertainties both to the United Kingdom and the Member- States of the 32

ibid

LSE, 2017. The UK’s Foreign, Defence, and. [Online] Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/reports/LSE-IDEAS-UK-Foreign-Defence-SecurityPolicy-After-Brexit.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 34 ibid 35 Financial Times, 2017. 5 concerns for UK-EU defence after Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/5c9898e0-124a-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 36 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 12

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide European Union. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom will have a serious financial impact on businesses thatare going to lose the certainty and the perspectives that the EU law provided to them all these years. Moreover,when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, higher barriers to trade, capital flows, and labor mobility will definitely affect productivity and jobs not only in the UK but also in the rest 27 EU Member-States. Since Brexit means the “divorce” of the United Kingdom from the European Union, there will be financial costs for both parts. Thus, it is important to present those financial challenges for both sides and focus on some specific sectors of the economy such as trade and industry.The question that needs to be answered is how will exiting the European Union affectthe business sector, economy and public finances in the UK and in the Member States of the EU? Trade: The European Union and the United Kingdom have had a long trading history

and have built some strong bonds.The EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for 44% of UK exports of goods and services in 2016 and 53% of imports37. In spite of the already existing trade links between the EU and the UK, the trade relations between the EU 27 Member States and the United Kingdom involve some other countries, too38. The question is how Brexit canaffect those substantial trade links between the European Union and the United Kingdom. On the one hand, experts believe, and studies have shown that Brexit will have a harmful impact on British trade. The UK’s economy is deeply connected with the rest of the EU, meaning that higher trade barriers could have serious results for the UK. It is important to mention, that according to continuous studies on the issue, it is said that for every 1% reduction in UK exports to the EU, there would be a 0.5% loss in the British GDP39. Another report made by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown that reduced trade activities can cost the United Kingdom around £70 billion, more than the £8 billion savings in EU membership fees, something that new trade deals would not be able to fix in order to make up the difference. On the other hand, the trade impact ofBrexit on the EU’s financial status is going to be negative but definitely smaller than the impact on the UK’s economy. The UK is a large trading partner for the EU, which means that if the United Kingdom decides to leave the European Single Market and proceed with a “hard Brexit”, EU exporters 37

Dominic Webb, 2017. Brexit and Trade. [Online] Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/key-issues/brexit-and-trade/ [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 38 Jiaqian Chen, C. E. L. L. H. Q. a. J. S., 2018. The Long-Term Impact of Brexit on the European Union. [Online] Available at: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/08/10/the-long-term-impact-of-brexit-on-theeuropean-union/ [Accessed 28 November 2018] 39 Gross Domestic Product EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 13

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide will stop enjoying free access to the UK’s market. Furthermore, another effect of Brexit on the EU’s economy is the reduction of UK’s demand for goods and services provided by the European Union. Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium are the top three EU countries that export the most to the UK. As a result, Brexit will significantly increase the cost of trade between the UK and these three countries. To be more specific, the re-introduction of the customs border in Ireland is going to have one main negative result: new costs to cross-border transactions. Moreover, the Netherlands is the UK’s second largest trading partner as far as the quantity of imports and exports is concerned. The UK is also the most popular destination for Dutch investors, and at the same time the Netherlands is the second most popular destination for British investors. Finally, a huge part of Belgium’s imports and exports highly depends on the UK and its economy40. It is needless to say that the more any country trades with the UK, the larger the Brexit result to the country’s economy will be. Last but not least, if no trade agreement is reached between the EU and the UK, trade will revert to the application of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Many countries trade with the EU on this basis at the moment but it is crucial to mention that itwill certainlyconstitute a significant alteration from EU membership. Trading under WTO rules, which is a “cliff edge” scenario, is most likely to be proven disruptive to trade, since it would involve the introduction of both tariff and nontariff barriers41. Industry:After months of long negotiations between the EU and the UK,there are still

some grave uncertainties, threats and question marks concerning not only British but also multinational businesses operating in the United Kingdom. Brexit can again have a negative impact regarding industries both in the UK and the Member-States of the EU. However, the effects of Brexit for the United Kingdom in this sector of the economy may be more serious than the ones for the European Union. Firstly, the UK’s agriculture is a sector which is going to be extremely affected by Brexit since a very large part of the EU’s budget is intended for farmers subsides. In recent years, 60–65% of the UK’s agricultural exports and 70% of its agricultural imports were with the European Union, numbers that clearly prove the UK’s strong integration into the EU’s agricultural markets. As a result, with Brexit, farmers in the UK will probably lose these subsidies from the EU and the costs of food production 40

Chen, R., 2017. The Economic Impact of Brexit on UK and EU Trade. [Online] Available at: https://medium.com/@rchen8/the-economic-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-and-eu-trade-464dd090f92e [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 41 Dominic Webb, 2017. Brexit and Trade. [Online] Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/key-issues/brexit-and-trade/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 14

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide and price level are going to be basically increased in the UK42. Additionally, the financial and professional services industry will also be significantly affected by Brexit since London constitutes the largest and most powerful financial center in Europe43. As far as car industry in the UK is concerned, the industry body “Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders” estimated that a no-deal Brexitcould cost the motor industry an additional £4.5bn in tariffs44. Experts have repeatedly warned the UK that a failure to establish proper trade deals after Brexit could cause serious damages inthe industry. Last but not least, Brexit has raised some doubts over London’s status as a European technological capital and createdworries over the UK’s attractiveness to foreign investors. For financial technology firms, the biggest Brexit threat is one: the possibility that UK-based companies will be incapable ofproviding their services to their European clients after March 201945.

Social Challenges The UK has been a major beneficiary of the Structural Funds since its accession to the European Community. Since 1975, the funding for EU-supported regional economic and social development exceeds £100 bn46. Since the Treaty of Amsterdam, the UK has been a full participant in EU legislation concerning social policy. By implementing the European legislation, the UK created a legislative framework of social rights and social development 47 . However, the amount of money spent in the UK through the European Structural and Investment Fund (ESIF) has declined, EU programs have had a great effect on the design and implementation of UK policies which aimed in shaping regional and local economic and social development48. Under the EU’s Cohesion Policy, the UK has an overall allocation of over £10 bn for the 2014–20 period, with more than £4 bn allocated to social policy, in order to implement objectives related to a broad variety of subjects 42

Chen, R., 2017. The Economic Impact of Brexit on UK and EU Trade. [Online] Available at: https://medium.com/@rchen8/the-economic-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-and-eu-trade-464dd090f92e [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 43 ibid 44 Musaddique, S., 2017. Cost of Brexit: The impact on business and the economy in 2017 and beyond. [Online] Available at:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-economy-sterlingcurrency-investment-cost-impact-business-financial-banks-insurance-retail-a7695486.html [Accessed 28 November 2018] 45 ibid 46

Bachtler, J. & Begg, I., 2017. Cohesion policy after Brexit: the economic, social and institutional challenges. [Online] Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-socialpolicy/article/cohesion-policy-after-brexit-the-economic-social-and-institutionalchallenges/04090F70EE20AD9D47C8B5610021E725[Accessed 27 November 2018]. 47 ibid 48 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 15

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide including but not limited to innovation, SME competitiveness, urban development, social inclusion, skills and employment 49 . For many of these projects, local authorities, NGOs and enterprises, rely only on EU funding. This is an important issue for post-Brexit policy, given the perceived importance of inequality in explaining the voting patterns in the 2016 referendum. Parts of the country with lower levels of wages, skills, employment opportunities and wealth were more likely to vote in favor of Brexit. This has been recognized politically in post-referendum debates and in the identification of those ‘just about managing (JAMs)’ as the segment of society requiring increased attention from social policy50. After Brexit, the withdrawal of the UK from the EISF means the replacement of the current EU funding with domestic resources as well as the replacement of the EU social development programs with national initiatives51. Otherwise, the UK will face a down-grading of the priority given to social groups currently supported by the EISF. Given the overall pressure on social policy budgets, and public finances in general, the British government will therefore face the dilemma of whether it should maintain the same kind of support (financially as well as qualitatively) for the most disadvantaged or make cuts on social policy-related spending52. However, transition to full national control of social development policies includes choices about much more than future funding models. Given the fact that the ESIF has become part not only of the UK’s domestic policy conceiving but also of its implementation, it’s only inevitable that the British government will have to take decisions concerning which will be the post-Brexit objectives, how they will be connected to social policy priorities and finally, how they are going to be implemented53. The UK has acquired a broad legacy on social reforms from its EU membership. The most recent evaluation of the ERDF’s contribution in the UK concluded that, over the 2007–13 period, EU-funded projects led directly to the creation of over 152,000 jobs 49

Hantrais, L., 2017. The Social Dimension in EU and UK Policy Development:Shaping the Post-Brexit Legacy.[Online]. Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalrelations/assets/documents/cis/working-papers/cis-working-paper-2017-04-hantrais.pdf[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 50 Bachtler, J. & Begg, I., 2017. Cohesion policy after Brexit: the economic, social and institutional challenges. [Online] Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-socialpolicy/article/cohesion-policy-after-brexit-the-economic-social-and-institutionalchallenges/04090F70EE20AD9D47C8B5610021E725[Accessed 27 November 2018]. 51 ibid 52 ibid 53 Hantrais, L., 2017. The Social Dimension in EU and UK Policy Development:Shaping the Post-Brexit Legacy.[Online] Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalrelations/assets/documents/cis/working-papers/cis-working-paper-2017-04-hantrais.pdf[Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 16

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide while additional investment supported through EU funding was estimated to have increased the country’s GDP. Moreover, more than 7 million people participated in EU-funded employment and training programs and this funding appears to have contributed to the reduction in regional differences across the country. Therefore, when the EISF funding ends in the UK post-Brexit, the question will be whether and how to address this social need in domestic policy54. The aforementioned issuesare not challenging only for the EU. On the contrary, from the treatment of intra-EU migrants residing in the UK and their social rights (if the UK leaves the European Economic Area) to the future of the European social policy as a whole all these are issues which are going to affect the EU and its citizens. The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker in his White Paper on the Future of Europe, outlined the Commission’s intention to promote a more proactive approach to EU social policy post-Brexit. The document sets out the strategy for achieving ‘upward convergence’ between EU Member States with ‘social protection as a productive factor’ and several degrees of social regulation55. From another perspective, Brexit offersan opportunity to the remaining 27 Member-States to further develop the social dimension of the EU. Therefore, it becomes evident that up until now, the UK has contributed to the EU’s budget and UK regions received funds from this budget. Also, macro-economic averages used to determine eligibility for funds for each area in order for the abovementioned programs to be realized are currently based on the EU28. Thus, Brexit could mean not only losing a contributor to the budget (which will lead to reduce of the EU’s total available financial resources) but could also mean adjustments to economic averages for the EU2756. This may prompt discussions for revisions in EU budgetary planning and negatively impact funds for regional and cohesion policy if this shortage would not be compensated by additional payments from other sources. Beyond adjustmentsand possible cuts, Brexit may as well stimulate the discussion about the design and effectiveness of EU’s cohesion policy and strategies to best support convergence concerning social policy among the Member-States as well as turnbudget negotiations, which have always been tough, even more difficult in the upcoming years. 54

European Commission, 2013. Evaluations of the 2007-2013 programming period. [Online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/el/policy/evaluations/ec/2007-2013/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 55 European Commission, 2017. White Paper on the Future of Europe. [Online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/betapolitical/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 56 Deutsche Bank, 2016. What Brexit would mean for regional and cohesion policies in Europe. [Online] Available at: https://www.db.com/newsroom_news/2016/ghp/what-brexit-would-mean-for-regionaland-cohesion-policies-in-europe-en-11705.htm[Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 17

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

The Challenge of Scotland and N. Ireland Scotland

The United Kingdom consists of four countries; England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales57. On 23 June 2016 the people of Scotland voted decisively to remain to the EU. Scotland, until today, continues to support that staying in the EU is the best option. Failing that, Scotlandstrongly believes that the United Kingdom must at least remain inside the Single Market and Customs Union58. Scotland’s First Minister’s ambition is ‘to protect Scotland’s relationship with and place in the European Union’59. The goal is one: to avoid Scotland being “dragged out” of the EU against the democratic will of the Scottish people who overwhelmingly voted to stay in the European Union. At this point, it is crucial to underline the main reasons why the Scottish Government cannot support the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU because of the continued uncertainty it creates60.The Scottish Government, in accordance with the overwhelming vote for Remain in Scotland, supports continued EU Membership61. Firstly, Scotland has many times highlighted the overall financial impact of this decision on the country’s economy and financial status. To be more specific, according toboth the Withdrawal Agreement and the political declaration, Scotland will be substantially poorer and financially weaker than it would have been if it remained in the European Union62. In addition, the UKGovernment describes the goals and aims of the framework for the future relationship of the EU and the UK as ‘ambitious’63. However, the Prime Minister’s red lines and plans, on leaving the European Single Market and Customs Union, ending freedom of movement and 57

Government, U., 2015. The Countries of the UK. [Online] Available at:https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160108051201/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guidemethod/geography/beginner-s-guide/administrative/the-countries-of-the-uk/index.html[Accessed 28 November 2018] 58 Government, S., 2018. Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/brexit/ [Accessed 28 November 2018] 59 Sturgeon, N. 2018. Scotland's place in Europe: our way forward.[Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-way-forward/[Accessed 28 November 2018] 60 Directorate, E. A., 2018. Scotland's place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-placeeurope-assessment-uk-governments-proposed-future-relationship-eu/pages/4/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 61 Sturgeon, N. 2018. Scotland's place in Europe: our way forward. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-way-forward/ [Accessed 28 November 2018] 62 Directorate, E. A., 2018. Scotland's place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-placeeurope-assessment-uk-governments-proposed-future-relationship-eu/pages/4/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 63 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 18

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide ending the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the EU, can only mean that the future relationship can only be built around a standard free trade agreement which will inexorably weaken the Scottish economic ties with the EU64. Last but not least, Scotland’s largest EU services well-known export sector is “Wholesale, retail trade; repair of motor vehicles”65,which includes the wholesale of Scottish well-known fishery products and aquaculture products like salmon. The possible loss of access to the EU market for these Scottish products will inevitably have a straight damaging impact not only on the sector but also on the job opportunitiesthat the sector creates in rural communities66. Scotland’s will to stay in the European Union, based always on the vote and the voice of its people, raises some intriguing questions: Can Scotland block Brexit? Can Scotland remain in the EU and the UK while England and Wales leave?Can Scotland leave the UK to remain in the EU67? Northern Ireland In the negotiations for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU, the Irish border has been one of the three areas of outmost importance to resolve before moving to the negotiations concerning other substantial topics such as the future economic relations between the UK and the EU and the rights of EU citizens living in the UK68.The Irish and UK governments, as well as EU representatives, have clearly stated that they do not wish for “a hard border” in Ireland, taking always into serious consideration the particular historical and social features and characteristics of the island69. More specifically, both the UK and the EU have been determined to avoid “a hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after Brexit. The UK’s government strongly supports that the key to achieve this goal is the establishment 64

ibid Government, S., 2018. Export Statistics Scotland 2016. [Online] Available at: https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf[Accessed 28 November 2018] 66 Directorate, E. A., 2018. Scotland's place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-placeeurope-assessment-uk-governments-proposed-future-relationship-eu/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 65

Paun, A., 2016. Can Scotland avoid Brexit?. [Online] Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/can-scotland-avoid-brexit[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 68 McKinney, C. J., 2018. The Irish border and Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-referendum-and-irish-border/[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 69 Millar, J., 2017. U pledges NO hard border in Ireland - but admits ‘creative’ solution needed. [Online] Available at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/786284/northern-ireland-brexit-irish-borderdonald-tusk[Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 19

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide of a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement, but the EU expressed its concerns about Theresa May’s red lines of leaving the single market, customs union and ECJ jurisdiction, which make such a deal impossible. In December 2017, the UK agreed that if no better solution is found, Northern Ireland would remain in “full alignment” with the EU’s single market and customs union rules in all relevant sectors70. However, after the Democratic Unionist Party’s intervention, it guaranteed no border in the Irish Sea, creating the current dilemma. The legal text that followed, which wasreleased by the European Commission, stated that until a workable and operative solution was found, Northern Ireland would be part of a “common regulatory area ... and customs territory” with the EU, so as to ensure free movement of goods across the Irish border. Theresa Maycharacterized it as unacceptable because it implied the creation ofa regulatory barrier between Northern Ireland and the UK and proceeded with a new proposal71. The UK’s new proposal, also known as ‘the backstop proposal’,recommends that the whole of the UK remains in the customs union for a limited time period after the end of the transition period. This means that it would leave the EU in March 2019 and the single market in December2020 but it will remain in the customs union for a longer period of time72On 14 November 2018, the European Commission released the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, whichincludes everything that has been agreed on Ireland and Northern Ireland, the way the backstop is going to work and how long it will apply for, among others73. On December 2021, UK government expects ‘Irish backstop’ to end and hopes that alternative but effective measures to any temporary customs arrangements will be proposed74.

Actions that have been done The European Commission and the United Kingdom’s negotiations have reached an agreement for the entire “Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community”. The goal of the Withdrawal Agreement is to establish the terms and conditions under which the United Kingdom will formally leave the European 70

Henley, J., 2018. Brexit: what is the UK's backstop proposal? [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/brexit-what-is-the-uks-backstop-proposal, [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 71 ibid 72 ibid 73 Commission, E., 2018. Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. [Online] Available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6423_en.htm[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 74 Henley, J., 2018. Brexit: what is the UK's backstop proposal? [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/brexit-what-is-the-uks-backstop-proposal, [Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 20

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide Union, on March 2019. It also ensures that an orderly withdrawal is achieved, and that legal certainty is offered once the Treaties and the EU law will cease to apply in the United Kingdom. The Withdrawal Agreement covers the following specific areas: It includes the Common Provisions whose aim is to ensure the correct understanding, operation and interpretation of the Withdrawal Agreement. It also covers the area concerning the citizens’ rights. Protecting the life of citizens and their family members has been a priority from the beginning of the negotiation. The Withdrawal Agreement predicts everything regarding residence rights, rights of workers and self-employed persons, and recognition of professional qualifications as well as social security. Furthermore, it includes issues that may occur in the transition period. During that period the EU will treat the UK as a Member- State, with the exception of participation in the EU institutions and governance structures. During the transition period, administrations, businesses and citizens will have the chance to adapt to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom. The financial settlement, which is included in the Withdrawal agreement guarantees that the UK and the EU will honor all financial agreements and obligations undertaken by the UK while it was a Member of the European Union. Moreover, the overall governance structure of the Withdrawal Agreement ensures the effective management, implementation and enforcement of the agreement, always including appropriate dispute settlement mechanisms. Last but not least, the Withdrawal Agreementcovers the terms of a legally operational backstop so as to guarantee that there will be no “hard border” between Ireland and Northern Ireland.75 On 14 November 2018, the European Commission also released the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, which includes everything that has been agreed on Ireland and Northern Ireland, the way the backstop is going to work and how long it will be applicable, among others76. On 29 March 2019, the United Kingdom is expected to officially leave the European Union77.

Commission, E., 2018. Brexit Negotiations: What is in the Withdrawal Agreement. [Online] Available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6422_en.htm[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 76 Commission, E., 2018. Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. [Online] Available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6423_en.htm [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 77

Walker, N., 2018. Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union. [Online] Available at: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7960 [Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 21

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

Perspectives When the British government invoked Article 50, the situation was unclear. The scenarios about how the UK’s exit of the EU would happen were many and they are summarized in Table 1.4. A “soft Brexit” scenario included a more positive approach to the EU-UK trade relationship with which the UK would continue having full access to the single market (the UK would remain a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). A second possibility of the same “soft Brexit” scenario would be for the UK to leave the EEA but reach a special agreement that would grant it partial access to the single market. Both scenarios precludethat the UK will conform to the four freedoms. However, the British government has repeatedly stated that it does notwant to continue the implementation of the right of freedom of people78. On the other hand, a “hard Brexit” scenario premised the UK leaving the EEA and not having any kind of access to the single market but staying in the customs union. Being a member of the customs union would mean that the UK would accept common tariffs on imports from outside the EU and would be able to trade goods freely with EU members. An alternative was the possibility of the UK leaving both the EEA and the customs union which means that it would have to negotiate a free trade agreement as any third country would do such as the agreement reached between the EU and Canada79.

Rutter, J. & Owen, J., 2018. Autumn surprises: Possible Scenarios for the Next Phase of Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/brexit-scenariosfinal_0.pdf[Accessed 28 November 2018]. 79 ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 22

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide Given the latest developments in the UK however, a third scenario, that of a no deal, seems more possible. On 26th November, it was announced that the EU and the British government have concluded to withdrawal agreement. However, for the agreement to be implemented it is necessary to get through the British parliament. At the moment, the possibility of a no deal Brexit seems more possible since the EU has stated that it is either this deal or nothing and since the majority of MEPs seem to be against it. In this case, the relationship between the EU and the UK would be solely based on the WTO terms. The UK would not participate in any EU policy and/or process and it would have to negotiate approximately 750 agreements from scratch80.

Figure1.4

Questions Raised 1. 2. 3. 4.

In what ways will Brexit affect the EU? Which are the challenges that the EU and the UK face because of Brexit? How can these challenges be dealt with? Besides the Withdrawal Agreement what else needs to be done in order for the two sides to face their common challenges? 5. In case of a “no deal” scenario, which will be the relationship between the EU and the UK? 6. How will the EU and the UK resolve trade disputes in the future? 7. How can the EU face the consequences of Brexit in the financial sector? 80

ibid EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 23

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide 8. What will be the framework of cooperation between the EU and the UK concerning data sharing? Should the UK and if yes how, participate in Europol, Eurojust and the European Arrest Warrant? 9. Which are Scotland’s and N.Ireland’s options concerning their relationship with the EU after Brexit? 10. How will Brexit affect the European social development policy? What needs to be done in order to alleviate its consequences?

Bibliography

1. Bachtler, J. & Begg, I., 2017. Cohesion policy after Brexit: the economic, social and institutional challenges. [Online] Available at: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-socialpolicy/article/cohesion-policy-after-brexit-the-economic-social-andinstitutional- challenges/04090F70EE20AD9D47C8B5610021E725 [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 2. BBC, 2013. David Cameron promises in/out referendum on EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21148282 [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 3. BBC, 2016. EU Referendum- Results. [Online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 4. BBC, n.d. [Online] Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/january/1/newsid_245900 0/2459167.stm [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 5. Brown, D., 1984. Thatcher settles for 66pc rebate. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1984/jun/27/past.eu [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 6. Chen, R., 2017. The Economic Impact of Brexit on UK and EU Trade. [Online] Available at: https://medium.com/@rchen8/the-economic-impact-of-brexiton-uk-and-eu-trade-464dd090f92e [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 7. Commission, E., 2018. Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. [Online] Available at: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6423_en.htm [Accessed 28 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 24

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challengesâ&#x20AC;&#x153; Study Guide 8. Deutsche Bank, 2016. What Brexit would mean for regional and cohesion policies in Europe. [Online] Available at: https://www.db.com/newsroom_news/2016/ghp/what-brexit-would-meanfor-regional-and-cohesion-policies-in-europe-en-11705.htm [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 9. Directorate, E. A., 2018. Scotland&#39;s place in Europe: assessment of UK Government's proposed future relationship with the EU. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-place-europe-assessmentuk-governments-proposed-future-relationship-eu/ [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 10. European Commission, 2013. Evaluations of the 2007-2013 programming period. [Online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/el/policy/evaluations/ec/2007-2013/ [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 11. European Commission, 2017. White Paper on the Future of Europe. [Online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/betapolitical/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 12. European Council on Foreign Relations, 2018. Keeping Europe safe after Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/keeping_europe_safe_after_bre xit [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 13. European Council, 2017. European Council (Art. 50) guidelines for Brexit negotiations. [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pressreleases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 14. European Council, 2017. Special European Council (Art. 50). [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/europeancouncil/2017/04/29/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 15. European Council, 2018. Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. [Online] Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/withdrawalagreement-and-political-declaration [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 16. European Parliament, 2017. European Parliament resolution of 5 April 2017 on negotiations with the United Kingdom following its notification that it intends to withdraw from the European Union. [Online] Available at: EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 25

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=//EP//TEXT+TA+P8-TA-2017-0102+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 17. European Union, 2009. The Lisbon Treaty. [Online] Available at: http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-Europeanunion-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 18. European Union, 2017. The Schuman Declaration – 9 May 1950. [Online] Available at: https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/symbols/europeday/schuman-declaration_en [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 19. European Union, n.d. The European Council. [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 20. European Union, n.d. The President's role. [Online] Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/european-council/president/role/ [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 21. Financial Times, 2017. 5 concerns for UK-EU defence after Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/5c9898e0-124a-11e8-940e08320fc2a277 [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 22. Government, S., 2018. Export Statistics Scotland 2016. [Online]Available at: https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530678.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 23. Hantrais, L., 2017. The Social Dimension in EU and UK Policy Development:Shaping the Post-Brexit Legacy. [Online] Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/international-relations/assets/documents/cis/workingpapers/cis-working-paper-2017-04-hantrais.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 24. Henley, J., 2018. Brexit: what is the UK&#39;s backstop proposal?. [Online]Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/07/brexit-what-is-the-uksbackstop-proposal [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 25. Ipsos MORI, 2016. European Union membership - trends. [Online] Available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/european-union-membershiptrends [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 26. Jiaqian Chen, C. E. L. L. H. Q. a. J. S., 2018. The Long-Term Impact of Brexit on the European Union. [Online] Available at: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/08/10/the-long-term-impact-of-brexit-on-theeuropean-union/ [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 27. LSE, 2017. The UK’s Foreign, Defence, and. [Online] Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/reports/LSE-IDEAS-UKEUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 26

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide Foreign-Defence-Security-Policy-After-Brexit.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 28. Margaret Thatcher Foundation, 1988. Speech to the College of Europe ("The Bruges Speech"). [Online] Available at: https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107332 [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 29. Millar, J., 2017. U pledges NO hard border in Ireland - but admits ‘creative’ solution needed. [Online]Available at: https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/786284/northern-ireland-brexit-irishborder-donald-tusk [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 30. Moussis, N., 2011. Europedia.moussis.eu. [Online] Available at: http://www.europedia.moussis.eu/books/Book_2/2/4/1/1/?all=1 [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 31. Musaddique, S., 2017. Cost of Brexit: The impact on business and the economy in 2017 and beyond. [Online] Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-economysterling-currency-investment-cost-impact-business-financial-banks-insuranceretail-a7695486.html [Accessed 2018 November 2018]. 32. Paun, A., 2016. Can Scotland avoid Brexit?. [Online]Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/can-scotland-avoid-brexit [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 33. Phipps, C., Weaver, M., Quinn, B. & Rawlinson, K., 2016. EU summit: Cameron secures deal and starts campaign to keep Britain in – as it happened. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/19/eusummit-all-night-negotiations-deal-cameron-live [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 34. Pliakos, A., 2012. The Law of the European Union [Το Δίκαιο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης]. Athens: Nomiki Bibliothiki Group. 35. Quentin, P., 2016. Historic misunderstanding underlies UK-EU relationship on Churchill anniversary. [Online] Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/3d6bbabc-7122-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926 [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 36. Rutter, J. & Owen, J., 2018. Autumn surprises: Possible Scenarios for the Next Phase of Brexit. [Online] Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/ brexit-scenarios-final_0.pdf [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 37. Shrapnel, N., 2016. Britain will ask to join EEC – archive. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/eec-britainmembership-european-economic-community-1961-archive [Accessed 26 November 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 27

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide 38. The Economist, 2016. A background guide to “Brexit” from the European Union. [Online] Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2016/02/24/abackground-guide-to-brexit-from-the-european-union [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 39. Traynor, I., Watt, N., Gow, D. & Wintour, p., 2011. David Cameron blocks EU treaty with veto, casting Britain adrift in Europe. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/dec/09/david-cameron-blockseu-treaty [Accessed 27 November 2018]. 40. Walsh, J., 2016. Britain's 1975 Europe referendum: what was it like last time?. [Online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/25/britains1975-europe-referendum-what-was-it-like-last-time [Accessed 26 November 2018]. 41. Walker, N., 2018. Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union. [Online] Available at: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP7960 [Accessed 28 November 2018]. 42. Webb, D., 2017. Brexit and Trade. [Online] Available at: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/key-issues/brexit-and-trade/ [Accessed 28 November 2018].

Further Reading  Barker, A. (2018). The soft-Brexit Chequers deal: what it means | Financial Times. [online] Ft.com. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/aeb53c8282ac-11e8-96dd-fa565ec55929 [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].  Brush, S. (2018). Brexit Deal Means U.K. Finance Will Lose Easy Access to the EU. [online] Bloomberg.com. Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/brexit-deal-meansu-k-finance-will-lose-easy-access-to-the-eu [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].  Hunt, A. and Wheeler, H. 2018. Brexit: All you need to know. [online] BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887 [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].  Morris, C. (2018). Reality Check: What would 'no Brexit deal' look like?. [online] BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics39294904 [Accessed 27 Nov. 2018]. EUropa.S. 2019, April 19th - 22nd, Athens, Greece europas.irtea@gmail.com | www.europas.irtea.gr Page 28

EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide  Perrigo, B. (2018). Britain Is Preparing For a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. Here’s What That Means. [online] Time. Available at: http://time.com/5358452/britainno-deal-brexit/ [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].  Shaheen, F., Luyendijk, J., Miller, G. and Newman, H. (2018). Theresa May’s Brexit deal – what will it mean?. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/14/theresa-maybrexit-deal-panel-verdict [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].  The Institute for Government. (2018). Parliament and the Brexit deal. [online] Available at: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-andbrexit-deal [Accessed 28 Nov. 2018].

Useful Links  The site of the European Council: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/el/european-council/  The site of the European Commission: https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness_en  The site of EUR-Lex: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/homepage.html?locale=el  The site of the British Government: https://www.gov.uk/

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EUropa.S. 2019 European Council, “The Question of UK-EU Relations Post-BREXIT; Security, Financial and Social Challenges“ Study Guide

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