A world power in decline

We are seeing a decline in American power, the controversial 84-year-old academic Noam Chomsky stated in the lf7'0Jhit1gto11 Post recently.

The rapidly changing siniation in Ukraine will be a limms test of America's inAuence on world affairs as it duels with its old foe, Russia. What plays out in the near fumre will have a significant bearing on world affairs, especially on an emerging economy like lndia.

The seeds of decline in the US might have been sprouting for a while now. Tbe '13- year war in Afghanistan and the bloody battles in Iraq have been financially costly and emorionaUy draining for tlie Americans. A lame duck President who is held back by the U S Congress and halfway tl1rough his second term with nothing more to prove, is not helping America's cause.

Two iucemational events in the recent pasc have also embarrassed the US. Its handling of the Syrian crisis was ineffecmal , with Russia negating any show of force wh ich cl1e Amer icans exerted diplomatically after the gas attacks against civilians there. Furthermore, tl1e feeling globally i s that America has been played with by Iraq's promises of cooperation on nuclear advancement, in remrn for having tl1eir sanctions lifted. Israe l and ocher countries have been vehement in dieir astonishment at American gullibility on this issue lt is doubtful if there will be any boots on the ground m defend parts of Ukraine 1mder cl:u:eat by Russia, a country d,at has spent billions under Putin to upgrade and modernise i ts forces that were dilapidated after the break -up of the Soviet Union. i\1feanwhil e, Moscow's special units are now seen as equa ls on par with the best in the world.

The US seemed impotem on the issue of Edward Snowden being granted asylum in Russia as \veil.

The l atest Russian aggression in Ukraine has a lso received a soft response by tbe US, largely syrnbolic. The US has suspended preparations for a GS summic in Sochi. Some countries have recalled ambassadors. Britain said its ministers would stay away from the Paralympics m be held in Sochi.

For lndi a, the stand -off between Russia and me US is alarming as is d1e perception of decline in American power.

With allied troops leaving Afghanistan this year, cliat part of die world can become increasingly vo latile. While die militams have been held back by the

US -led forces in Afghanisran in the past, the easing of pressure increases the danger of insurgency spreading to India, especially Kashmir. TI1e close conneccion between China and Pakistan, and part of the Pakistani military's closeness to the Taliban, can also raise temperatures in cliat part of the world.

India will need all its diplomatic skills to balance its relationships with the US and Russia.

Anotlier factor of concern for lndia will be about which country can best assist with meeting its own energy needs in the funtte. The U S has .recently fow1d vast reserves of oil and gas, and over the next 20 years will probably become largely self-sufficient. Their desire to fight any battles over energy issues will be li mited. According to a report in lntemationtt! E11er;gy Outlook, by 2040 India and China will account for 34 percent of the projected total world energy consumption. A large pan will be sourced from the Middle East, and gas will be obtained from reserves in Russia. \Xfhich current superpower wiU be more powerful in meeting lodia's energy needs will be a significant factor in the minds of Indian diplomats when deciding on which side to favom in the cmrent showdown.

Pawan Luth ra is the 2012 Parliament of NSW Multicultural Journalis t of the Year