A poll-driven society

BY NOEL G DE SOUZA

Australia, like many Western democracies, has become a society which is driven by opinion polls. Almost every week we are bombarded by one or another newspaper running a poll. Often it may be based on a survey of just 600 to 1200 people and their opinions on questions like whether they prefer the prime minister or the opposition leader, are tabulated and broadcast as if they are election results.

The integrity or honesty of the poll results are not questioned but are compared with results from other pollsters to see if they tally. Pollsters like to have a good reputation and therefore, they can be expected to be as honest as possible. The Galaxy poll, published by The Daily Telegraph and associated newspapers, has been known for its uncanny accuracy. Another reputable poll is the AC Nielson poll which is published by the Fairfax group of newspapers.

Material is gathered with respect to location, age and gender and this gives clues with regard to group attitudes. For example, a certain party might promise certain advantages to retirees (like increased pensions) whilst others may focus on women’s issues (like the current debate on maternity leave pay) and these might get reflected in the polls. Often, the respondent’s normal party preference is also included to find how liberal or labor voters feel about an issue.

There are two problems with polls. The first is that people might not be willing to reveal what they actually think, particularly over the phone and, secondly, emotions might affect their responses. Emotions especially affect surveys on issues like migration and multiculturalism. Leaders who can emotionally relate to people can be expected to do well in both opinion polls and in elections; leaders need to be able to relate to the common man and woman. Charisma does have its place in politics!

In non-democratic societies, people are afraid to vent their grievances. In contrast, in democratic societies people show their dissatisfaction quite openly. That is the difference between China and India. Indian politics, because of the freedom associated with it, often appears chaotic; China in stark contrast is a command society. Australians show their dissatisfaction through polls. The important Newspoll, exclusive to The Australian newspaper, focuses on the satisfaction/dissatisfaction or approval/ disapproval ratings of the leaders of the main parties. It has had near-accurate prediction on the just concluded Tasmanian and South Australian elections.

Australia, like other democracies, has developed a culture of complaint. Students in tertiary education are encouraged to comment on their teachers, which is still alien to many societies. People’s opinions are asked on matters such as health and transport. Sometimes the culture of complaint goes too far when governments are blamed for everything such as drought and the lack of water in the Murray River.

Opinion polls are supposed to reflect people’s opinion on certain matters, but the trouble is that such polls often actually do the opposite. Instead, they influence public opinion and in doing so, they drive policy-making which might then get brushed off as “making policy on the run”.

When poll results are favourable to the opposition, it boosts their morale with calls from their leader not to become complacent. Likewise, if polls favour the government, “don’t get complacent” can be expected from the leader. Unfavourable results for either side are taken as wake-up calls which then result in policy changes; but if polls