CHECKOFF INVESTMENT
USDA outlook puts the bull in corn and soybean markets BY ANN HINCH
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.rojected 2020-21 marketing year ending stocks of both U.S. corn and soybeans are down sharply from recent years thanks to a variety of factors, including recovery from COVID-19 impacts, more exports – particularly to China – and increased ethanol and feed use. “I can’t remember a time when there were as many variables in play as there are today,” mused U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO Jim Sutter. “No wonder there’s some volatility and uncertainty in the marketplace.” The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from April 9 reflected global corn ending stocks are estimated to Jim Sutter be sharply lower than in recent years, at the end of this marketing year on August 31. The global estimate is 283.8 million metric tons (MMT), or about 11.2 billion bushels; of that, the United States will have 1.35 billion, about 12 percent. This is even down from WASDE’s March estimate
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INDIANA CORN & SOYBEAN POST
of 1.5 billion bushels. The global estimate is under last year’s 303 MMT and 321.1 MMT for 2018-19; in those years, the U.S. housed more than 16 percent of corn ending stocks. U.S. corn’s expected stocks-to-use ratio in this marketing year is just 9.2 percent, a dip from 13.7 in 2019-20. In its March 1 Grain Stocks report, the USDA reported the U.S. was holding 7.7 billion bushels of corn, down 3 percent from one year earlier. Indiana, however, was up from March 2020 – by 5 percent to 515.5 million. At the end of March, USDA published its annual Prospective Plantings Ed Ebert for the U.S. It estimates growers will seed 91.1 million acres of corn, up slightly more than last year’s 90.8 million. Indiana is projected to plant 5.2 million, down from 5.4 million in 2020. Soybean ending stocks are estimated to be extremely tight
