Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow's Leaders. Report of the IGGY Junior Commission 2011/12. by IGGY

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Six goals to meet the Challenge... Redefining Energy Supply

Promoting Cleaner Fuels

Distributed Power Systems

Individual Energy Use and Attitudes

A Strategy for Sustainable Development

Energy Demand Management

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Contents Introduction Welcome from the Vice Chancellor 4 Executive Summary 5 Prelude from a Warwick Junior Commissioner 6 Foreword from the Chair of the Warwick Junior Commission Advisory Panel 7 Introduction from the Director of IGGY 8 The Challenge Supply 9 Introduction 10 Redefining Energy Supply 10 A Review of the Global Potential of Alternative Energy Resources 12 Establishing Sustainable Energy Systems in Developing Countries 24 Distributed Power Systems 27 Demand 35 Introduction 36 Effecting Sustained Consumer Behavioural Change - Energy Generation and Usage 36 Promoting Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Alternatives in Global Transport and Industry 42 Energy Demand Management 46 Conclusions and Recommendations Energy 2025: Conclusions 49 Energy 2025: Recommendations 49 Appendices References 53 Acknowledgments 56 Meet the Commissioners 57 Members of the Advisory Panel 62 Production and Editorial Credits 64

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Welcome from the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Warwick

Professor Nigel Thrift

am delighted to welcome this report from the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12 on the future of sustainable energy.

Warwick Junior Commissions offer practical and realistic solutions to seemingly intractable global problems, much like their academic counterparts, the Warwick Commissions. By harnessing IGGY's unique community of gifted and talented young people, the Junior Commission have been able to work across borders and with a distinctly youthful spirit. Supported by some of our leading academics in the fields of energy, climate change and sustainability, the Junior Commissioners have undertaken a range of study visits, research assignments and structured discussions online and in person. With characteristic vigour, they have produced a strong set of proposals for making the supply of energy more efficient and sustainable and for changing the attitudes and behaviours of consumers toward their consumption of energy. The report is bold, challenging and forward-looking. None of the Commissioners would expect it to be implemented in full. Internationally binding agreements are notoriously difficult to achieve and scientific discovery, government policies, industrial practice and people's behaviour will have evolved considerably by 2025. Nonetheless, the Junior Commissionersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; work in analysing possible approaches and models to produce the basis for an integrated plan for the future of sustainable energy is eminently worthy of consideration. Junior Commissioners are some of the most gifted young people in the world. They will be among the leaders of their generation in 2025. We should listen to their ideas about the world they want to inherit, lead and pass on. I want to thank the Advisory Panel, the academics and officers at the University of Warwick and the IGGY team for the assistance they have offered the Junior Commissioners. The Commissioners have also been generously supported by the many individuals and organisations listed in the report and I extend my thanks to each and every one. I commend this report to you.

Professor Nigel Thrift Vice-Chancellor The University of Warwick June 2012

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Executive Summary

1. The Warwick Junior Commission is a group of 14-19 year old students who are members of IGGY, the global online network for gifted young people. The Commission comprised ten members from nine countries. Through a collaborative research process, conducted both online and during study visits, Commissioners were asked to set out practical steps in terms of supply and demand to meet the challenge of climate change.

3. The report sets out a series of detailed and targetbased recommendations for energy technologies in 2025:

2. This report sets out six principal goals:

c. Prioritise the provision of information services

a. Redefine energy supply

d. Reach out to young people internationally through social media

b. Establish sustainable energy systems in developing countries c. Develop distributed power systems with a strategic plan for the sustainable global integration of distributed generation resources based on key low carbon technologies and renewable resources d. Effect sustained consumer behavioural change through incentives and information e. Promote energy efficiency and sustainable alternatives in global transport and industry f. Improve energy demand management

Technology

Target

Photovoltaic solar

4% of global electricity

Wind power

7% global energy market

Enhanced geothermal energy systems

2% of global electricity production

Third generation liquid biofuels

15% of transport fuels

Hydropower

23% global technical potential

Nuclear power

Tougher directives on handling nuclear material and running nuclear stations

4. The key recommendations are to: a. Establish an International Carbon Tax b. Develop international distributed power system networks based on renewable resources and low carbon technologies

e. Improve energy efficiency in transport including establishment of international fuel economy standards, 45% reduction in new car energy intensity based on 2005 levels and hybrid cars to make up 4% of global fleet f.

Enhance energy efficiency in industry including the global commercialisation of carbon capture and storage and use of microalgae to sequester industrial carbon dioxide emissions in adjunct bio-refineries

g. Promote energy demand management and reduce commercial and domestic building energy consumption to 25% of global energy use. 5. These recommendations underlie the common dream of Commissioners to live in an energy secure, efficient and sustainable world. With the passion and single minded devotion of scientists, diplomats, policy makers and even normal individuals trying to make a difference, the issues of climate change and sustainability do not seem insoluble to us. Policy makers must make the most of their power to serve the people; investing in areas related to climate change and sustainability will have a long term benefits. As consumers, we must realise that supply measures cannot solve the problem alone and must become more conscious of the way we use energy.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Prelude from a Warwick Junior Commissioner

Gurrein Kaur Madan

he second Warwick Junior Commission comprises ten Junior Commissioners from nine different countries: Botswana, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Singapore and the UK. We are students between the ages of 14 to 19 and were selected to the Junior Commission via an international essay competition on sustainability and energy management organised by IGGY at The University of Warwick. This competition helped bring together like minded, passionate students driven to change the world. The Junior Commission initiated its work on Energy 2025 in July 2011. The cultural, geographical and global diversity of the Junior Commission helped each Commissioner appreciate the different ways climate change is perceived around the world. The Commissioners researched, held discussions and interacted with diplomats, policy makers and scientists over a span of nine months to compile our Final Report, Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders. The Junior Commission divided into two groups, with one group responsible for researching energy supply while the other researched energy demand. Bearing in mind that the supply and demand sectors do not work in isolation and are interlinked, we considered the complexity and overlap of both sections. The six sets of proposed recommendations have been formulated based on our individual research and material available to the Commissioners along with resources provided by IGGY including meetings with various diplomats, NGOs, UN agencies in New York and online sessions with academics involved in the sustainability field. Our journey with this project has helped us evolve in our thoughts, assumptions and perceptions of the way climate change is dealt with in the 21st century. The talks in New York - at the Science Barge, Solar One, NYC Cool Roofs, NYC ischool, UNISDR, UNIDO, UNDP and the Annual David Vanderlinde Lecture by Baroness Amos – provided unparalleled insight. The inspiring sessions with Tim Jones, David Elmes, Alexei Lapkin, Tim Bugg and Joel Cardinal of The University of Warwick, helped tremendously to develop a solid groundwork for our research. We have been exposed to the rapid change that the renewable industry has been going through. But there is still so much more to do. That’s why Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders aims to mobilise action for a clean, secure and energy efficient world.

Gurrein Kaur Madan Amritsar, India June 2012

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Foreword from the Chair of the Warwick Junior Commission Advisory Panel

David Elmes

t has been a pleasure to work with the Junior Commissioners as they have developed and produced their report.

Energy 2025 is very much the result of their ideas, research and hard work. Members of the Advisory Council have helped with providing background information, commenting on their early proposals and working with them to ensure factual accuracy but itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s been exciting to see the Junior Commissioners take the lead on developing this report. The ambition and energy of this Junior Commission has been infectious. The issues around energy, climate change and sustainability are complex with no simple answers for scientists or policy makers; for energy providers or consumers. The problems we face in energy are both immediate and long term in nature, so who better than a group of gifted, enthusiastic and focused young people to develop a set of proposals that help provide the basis of a blueprint for the future? An example of how the Junior Commissioners did not avoid complexity is their equal emphasis on the demand for energy as well as its supply. It can be easy to just call for renewable sources to replace fossil fuels but what consumers can do to change attitudes and behaviours towards energy consumption is also of vital importance. For the generation represented by the Junior Commission, adapting to this double challenge is almost a given which means they are perhaps better placed to find the methods that will achieve the changes needed. Together with colleagues on the Advisory Panel, I am proud to have worked with this Warwick Junior Commission and hope their report will make a lasting contribution to a vital debate.

David Elmes Academic Director The Warwick Global Energy MBA and Senior Teaching Fellow Warwick Business School June 2012

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Introduction from the Director of IGGY

Janey Walker

he 2011/12 Warwick Junior Commission is proof of the benefits of bringing gifted young people together from across the world and getting them to work together to bring new insights to a subject. Watching how they work together, how they use each other's perspectives and experience to improve their understanding of a subject, and seeing them pull together a lucid, forward thinking strategy on energy has inspired us to build on the thinking, exploration and collaboration that IGGY encourages. IGGY is expanding rapidly in 2012, with a new website and community and new content, and we will use these new services to extend that collaboration and global perspective. There will be another Junior Commission launched this Autumn and we look forward to building on the achievements and the inspiration of the 2011/12 commissioners. The Junior Commissioners have certainly experienced a journey over the past year, developing their thinking and analytical skills. They have studied print and video materials, used collaborative research and online forums, and learnt through study visits and online conversations with academics. The process has led the commissioners from strong opinions at the outset to well evidenced recommendations and a robust report. To find out more about their research and discussions go to www.warwick.ac.uk/IGGY/juniorcommission

Janey Walker Director, IGGY The University of Warwick June 2012

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

The Challenge

Supply â&#x20AC;&#x153;Renewable energy resources are highly local in character; their availability, variability, and intensity vary enormously from place to place. Local factors also dictate where resources can best be exploited... Fairly detailed bottom-up appraisals, much like a series of project assessments, must be used both to harness renewable energy resources and to estimate the realistically-available size of each resource for a region or a country â&#x20AC;&#x201C; perhaps as a guide for national or regional indicative policy and planning targets. Renewable energy sources that lack such underpinning are somewhat suspect.â&#x20AC;? 87 (Ch4, P3-4)

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Introduction The International Energy Agency projects that between 2007 and 2030, world primary energy demand will increase at the rate of 1.5% annually and grow from about 12,000 million tonnes of oil equivalent to 16,800 million tonnes of oil equivalent1. Accounting for over three quarters of this increase, fossil fuels are set to remain the main source of global primary energy1. However, continuing on this energy path would lead to an increased dependence on fossil fuels. This would result in alarming consequences for global climate change as a result of a 40% rise in energy related carbon dioxide emissions from domestic, commercial and industrial energy use2. In addition, this would increase concern over global energy security as a result of geopolitical issues as well as uncertainty regarding sustainability and finiteness of fossil energy1. To sustainably meet future energy demand, it has become imperative to turn to energy generated from alternative energy resources and low carbon technologies. With a focus on 2025 and the goal of influencing both national and international energy policy, the energy supply chapter chiefly explores the use of key alternative energy resources through efficient, low carbon technologies for the sustainable generation and effective transmission and distribution of clean, cheap, secure and reliable electric power. The chapter discusses a wholesome approach to energy generation that supports the complementary use of renewable energy resources. Sustainable development and the provision of energy infrastructure and cheap but effective low carbon energy options to rural communities in developing countries are also discussed. Drawing on these two initial discussions, a strategy for the sustainable supply of electricity generated from key renewable resources using efficient technologies is provided.

Redefining Energy Supply To meet future energy demand, the theoretical, geographical, technical, economic and market potential of key global alternative and renewable energy resources must be evaluated to allow the sustainable harnessing and use of these resources. This sub-chapter explores the future potential of applying efficient technologies in the strategic exploitation of energy generated from solar energy, hydropower, wind power, liquid biofuels, geothermal energy and nuclear power.

Potential

Definition

Theoretical potential

The highest level of potential as it only takes into account restrictions with respect to natural and climatic parameters

Geographical potential

Considers the effects of geographical restrictions, such as land use, that reduce theoretical potential. It represents the theoretical potential limited by the resources at geographical locations that are suitable

Technical potential

Geographical potential is further reduced due to technical limitations as conversion efficiencies, resulting in the technical potential. Technical potential focuses on conversion of energy resources into useful forms using proven or assumedto-be-developed technologies and estimates the maximum amount of feasible renewable energy development, not considering economic or market barriers

Economic Potential

The technical potential at cost levels considered competitive

Market potential

Represents the total amount of renewable energy that can be implemented in a market taking into account the demand for energy, competing technologies, costs and subsidies of renewable energy sources and various barriers

Table 1: The five types of potentials covered in the energy supply chapter and their major factors and limitations3.

When exploited in large scales and in a dominant fashion, all energy systems, including renewables, have unique adverse environmental impacts34. It is essential that a holistic approach to the use of global renewable resources be adopted in order to maintain environmental damage within tolerance range. Diversity in renewable energy production has an additional advantage of overcoming the challenge of diurnal, seasonal and yearly variations that characterise most renewables thus enabling the delivery of security in supply and distribution. It also supports the incremental development and improvement of clean technologies thus providing a stable multifaceted model for energy production with minimal environmental impact.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Prioritising and planning future energy resources is crucial to meeting sustainable development goals as well as carbon reduction targets. With dedicated policies and financial support, low carbon technologies can be developed and sustainably exploited in an energy mix to generate clean, cheap, secure and reliable energy that can, in turn, deliver the lion’s share of global energy demand in 2025. These technologies include: • Inorganic thin film photovoltaic technologies and organic photovoltaic technologies, which drive the development of both commercial and other emerging photovoltaic solar technologies. • Offshore wind technology, which is the driver for development of wind energy technology such as efficient low wind regime turbines and improved prediction of wind patterns; both of which can be applied to further develop onshore wind technology. • Enhanced geothermal systems that can be used to expand base load generation in established sites or allow the development of new sites in new locations by increasing the range of accessible geothermal energy resources that can be exploited for power generation. • Microalgae derived third generation liquid biofuels technologies which have the potential to consume large quantities of carbon dioxide while largely replacing fossil fuel derived transport fuels without negatively affecting food security, biodiversity or land use. • Medium scale storage and pumped storage hydropower technologies which can generate substantial peak and base loads with reduced environmental and social impact. • Nuclear power technologies if cautiously used in a closely monitored and highly regulated policy environment. The pre-eminence of these technologies and their future potentials are reviewed and analysed in the next section.

A Review of the Global Potential of Alternative Energy Resources Solar Energy Solar energy has been exploited since ancient times through a variety of evolving technologies. Although scientists have long realised the immense global potential of radiant light and heat generated by the sun, solar energy still remains the most abundant carbon neutral energy source that has not been fully utilised4. Indeed, the amount of solar energy that falls on earth’s surface in a single hour has been reported to be adequate enough to meet global energy demand for a year4. Three complementary technologies are used to actively harness solar energy: • Concentrating solar power utilises thermal storage and bright sunlight from clear skies to concentrate solar radiation thus producing a high temperature energy resource that can generate electricity and drive chemical reactions in large-scale power plants. • Solar thermal collectors use the sun’s thermal energy to either heat or cool buildings and water. • Photovoltaic solar systems directly convert sun light into electricity. According to the International Energy Agency, compared to other renewable technologies, photovoltaic solar showed the fastest growth with an average annual rate of 40% between 2000 and 20114. This growth occurred on the back of strong policy support and reducing technological costs and was mainly driven by installations in the United States, Germany, Italy and Japan4. Despite currently providing only 0.1% of global generation, it is thought that photovoltaic solar will supply approximately 5% of the world’s electricity by 2030 and this is projected to rise to 11% by 2050 and avoid the emission of 2.3 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide4. The basic unit of a photovoltaic solar system is a photovoltaic cell, which employs a semiconductor to convert the sun’s radiant energy into electricity. Interconnected photovoltaic cells form a photovoltaic module. The connection of modules into arrays with additional components such as batteries and inverters form either grid connected or stand-alone photovoltaic systems. Photovoltaic systems can also be ground mounted for use in grid connected solar farms or integrated into buildings.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

40% Efficiency rates of industrially manufactured module/product

Commercial photovoltaic systems are classified as either crystalline silicon or thin film based. Crystalline silicon based systems represent over 80% of the annual global photovoltaic market while thin film systems account for the remainder of the market4. The cost and efficiency of commercial photovoltaic systems vary according to their technologies and diverse applications. Thus a range of different technologies concurrently exist in the market.

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Figure 2: Status and future prospects of commercial and current emerging and novel photovoltaic technologies4. Source; Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy © IEA, 2010.

Solar 2025

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Efficiency Performance

* percentage share of 2008 market

Figure 1: Performance, price and market value of different photovoltaic solar modules as of 20084. Source; Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy © IEA, 2010.

Emerging photovoltaic technologies promise to offer lower photovoltaic technology costs and increased efficiency. It is thought that they will not only co-exist in the market with current commercial technologies but their developmental progress will also go hand in hand4. Emerging photovoltaic technologies include4:

The use of solar energy for electricity generation is mature and well established. The increased use of solar energy can effectively reduce the world’s current heavy reliance on fossil fuels for heating and lighting. Solar is particularly a highly relevant alternative energy source for a host of developing and emerging economies in Africa and Asia, which can exploit both electricity and heat production from their sometimes substantial solar energy resources thus stimulating development while drastically reducing their fossil fuel related carbon emissions. Due to the relatively high initial capital costs of installing photovoltaic solar systems and accompanying infrastructure needed to support stand alone or feed in systems, heavy financing accompanied by productive technology transfer initiatives and support for local policies are needed to tap into these and other high potential regions. In addition, it is crucial that future research also focuses on the provision of compact, cheap and efficient energy storage devices.

• Novel technologies, which aim for ultrahigh efficiencies, are under research and employ active layers that respond to solar spectrums • Concentrating photovoltaic technologies, which effectively combine an efficient photovoltaic cell with a thermal radiation source • Advanced inorganic thin films, which are either silicon or Copper-Indium-Dieseline based • Organic solar cells, which are either fully organic or dye sensitized Recent research has yielded an organic solar cell with an efficiency of 7.4%6. Organic solar cells are positioned to occupy a niche market, which may largely remain confined to small-scale appliances such as laptops and cell phones. Their main strength lies in their highly flexible nature and relative ease of fabrication that promises low-cost manufacturing 6.

Figure 3: A schematic diagram showing how a domestic grid connected photovoltaic solar system works5 . Adapted from Photovoltaic solar systems webpage, RWE npower, 2012.

2030

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

The evolution of photovoltaic solar technology promises cheap, highly efficient and adaptable modules that suit a wide range of applications. Advanced inorganic thin film technologies are set to introduce high performance modules to domestic and commercial use solar systems. Despite their low efficiency, increased support for the research and development of low cost, easy to fabricate organic photovoltaic cells is the technological key that opens the door to the rapid development of other emerging and commercial technologies. With increased support, photovoltaic solar can supply 4% of the world’s electricity by 2025. Wind Energy Wind power is a well-accomplished, variable renewable resource that is poised to play an increasingly important role in the future global energy scene. Wind has been exploited for thousands of years for a range of uses including pumping water for irrigation and propelling sailboats. Compared to other renewable energy resources, the key advantage of the exploitation of wind energy is its relative cost competitiveness and technological maturity7. It is thought that with superior economics and improved technology, wind can seize 5% of the global energy market by 20207 and supply up to 12% of the world's electricity demand by 20508. Brought about by the uneven heating of earth’s surface by the sun, earth’s wind has the potential to continuously generate approximately 10 million megawatts of energy7. Wind electric power is produced via rotating wind turbine blades that extract kinetic energy within moving air and convert it to electric energy by way of an aerodynamic rotor ultimately connected to an electric generator. Electricity generated by a wind turbine may be transmitted through a grid system or used off-grid. There has been a renewed interest in small and micro wind turbines for off-grid power generation, albeit with reliability issues and a small market8. Made up of several hundred individual turbines mounted on tall towers, offshore and onshore wind farms generate electricity mainly for grid transmission. Despite the large potential of onshore wind10, offshore installations harness better wind speeds and are the main drivers for wind energy technology8. Still, offshore wind accounted for less than 2% of global installed capacity in 201110. According to the Global Wind Energy Council10, by 2030 half the world’s installed wind capacity will be in emerging markets including Brazil, Mexico, China, India, Turkey and South Africa. Presently, Europe is the global leader in offshore wind power generation10. Approximately 6 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity is currently under construction in Europe, an additional 17 gigawatts has been approved and a further 114 gigawatts is planned11. With a combined

potential of generating at least 135 gigawatts by 2030, the North Sea is set to become Europe’s wind home12. By 2020, Europe will generate approximately 148 terawatt hours per year from 40 gigawatts of offshore wind power11. This will supply more than 4% of the European Union’s total electricity demand and prevent the emission of 87 million tonnes of carbon dioxide11. Wind 2025 Besides its low carbon, renewable status, which renders it a sustainable energy resource, technological maturity and cost competitiveness represent key strengths of the use of wind for electricity production. In addition, not much land is required for wind energy generation, more so in the case of offshore wind power. Marginal as well as agriculturally productive land may therefore be used for onshore wind power production. Onshore or offshore, location is the most important factor to exploiting the potential of wind on any scale. Opportunities exist to develop efficient energy storage devices to store wind’s variable energy and also improve feed in rates to support both off-grid and grid connected wind power installations. The high power generation capacities of both offshore and onshore wind offer an opportunity to localise energy production thus improving security of supply and reduce environmental impact. It also mitigates the problem of variable wind intensity as it offers opportunities for the import of renewable energy when needed as well as export it when in excess. Still, there is a need to better predict both onshore and offshore wind patterns and intensity. A major shift of focus to offshore wind could not only generate more power but also make wind energy more socially acceptable as offshore installations have a reduced visual impact and lower noise constraints. Also, increased investment in offshore wind has the additional potential to further lower technological and financial barriers that stand in the way of the increasing use of wind power in both emerging and developing economies. By 2025, wind can seize 7% of the global energy market, with approximately half of these installations occurring in emerging and developing markets. Geothermal Energy Geothermal energy is thermal energy generated chiefly from the radioactive decay of minerals that is stored in rocks as well as trapped liquids and vapours of brine and water in earth’s core, mantle and crust13. Geothermal resources, such as hot springs and aquifers, can be used to generate electricity and provide heating and cooling. With a global installed capacity of more than 11,000 megawatts, conventional technologies applied to utilise geothermal energy for the provision of heating, cooling and electricity are mature and well-proven13.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Technological advances that exploit hot rock resources promise to expand the size and range of accessible geothermal energy resources, particularly for use in modular power generation and home heating13. According to the International Energy Agency, annual electricity generation from geothermal resources could reach 1,400 terawatt hours by 2050. This could account for approximately 3.5% of global electricity production and avoid emissions of about 800 megatonnes of carbon dioxide per year13. Geothermal energy is considered a renewable resource owing to the existence of a continuous flow of heat amassed in the earth to its surface and atmosphere13. As heat can be drawn at different rates, the sustainable use of geothermal resources suggests that the rate heat is extracted from an active site should allow it to be replenished over a similar period. The main environmental concerns associated with the use of geothermal power include negative aesthetic impact, water contamination, land disturbance, noise pollution, and air quality degradation mainly from the release of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulphide14. While electricity generation typically requires geothermal resource temperatures that exceed 100oC, a wider temperature range is used for a variety of heating applications, which include space, district and industrial process heating13. Space cooling can also be achieved by the use of heat driven adsorption chillers. Geothermal energy is traditionally exploited in countries such as New Zealand, Philippines, Iceland and Kenya mainly for baseload generation; production of electrical power needed to meet minimum demand. This base load characteristic is brought about by geothermal energy’s immunity to the effects of weather and seasonal variation thus differentiating it from most renewable resources that generate variable power13. Until recently, the reliable, eco-friendly and cost effective exploitation of earth’s geothermal resources was largely limited to regions where obvious surface features indicated the existence of local heat sources such as volcanoes. Enhanced geothermal systems exploit energy contained in hot rocks deep within the earth’s crust to either boost production in existing geothermal plants or develop new geothermal sites in areas that lack geothermal fluids13. Currently, enhanced geothermal system demonstrations and research tests are proceeding in the United States, China, Australia and several European Union countries13. The process basically involves creating new fractures in geothermal rocks or opening pre-existing ones. Boreholes and pumps are then used to cycle a transfer medium between the hot rock resource and a power generating plant.

1. Injection well An injection well is drilled into hot basement rock that has limited permeability and fluid content. All of this activity occurs considerably below water tables and at depths of greater than 1.5 km. This particular type of geothermal reservoir represents enormous potential energy resource.

2. Injecting water Water is injected at sufficient pressure to ensure fracturing or open existing fractures within the developing reservoir and hot basement rock.

3. Hydro fracture Pumping of water is continued to extend fractures and reopen old fractures some distance from the injection wellbore and throughout the developing reservoir and hot basement rock. This is a crucial step in the EGS process.

4. Production A production well is drilled with the intent to intersect the stimulated fracture system created in the previous step and circulate water to extract the heat from the basement rock with improved permeability.

5. Additional production Additional production wells are drilled to extract heat from large volumes of hot basement rock to meet power generation requirements. Now a previously unused but large energy resource is available for clean, geothermal power generation.

Figure 4: A detailed schematic diagram illustrating the workings of enhanced geothermal systems13. Source: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) © US Department of Energy. Image sourced from: Technology Roadmap; Geothermal heat and Power. IEA, 2011

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Geothermal 2025 Generation of energy from a larger fraction of earth’s thermal resources through enhanced geothermal systems has the potential to expand the exploitation of geothermal resources to a global scale. This would allow a host of countries access to geothermal energy. Increased research and development, sharing of information from demonstration sites as well as technology transfer will play a big role in facilitating the spread of not only these enhanced geothermal technologies but also traditional technologies. With these in place, annual electricity generation from geothermal resources can reach 800 terawatt hours and account for about 2% of global electricity production by 2025.

The use of geothermal resources for energy production has three key strengths: • Enhanced energy security as the sustainable use of geothermal resources renders their energy potential indefinite. • Base load power generation capability due to immunity to the effects of weather and seasonal variation. • Flexibility from the use of enhanced technologies that can either expand the exploitation of geothermal resources in established sites or allow the development of new sites in new locations. Although there are numerous environmental concerns associated with the use of geothermal power, systematic environmental assessments and strict continuous monitoring can effectively limit environmental impact of geothermal plants.

Case Study: Olkaria Geothermal Plant in Kenya Kenya pioneered the use of geothermal energy for electricity generation in Africa at the Olkaria geothermal field in 198114. To date, Kenya has drilled over 100 geothermal wells, the bulk of which are located in the greater Olkaria geothermal complex. The Olkaria geothermal field is located within Hells Gate National Park in the Great Rift Valley14. It spans 80 square kilometres and contains sufficient steam to last at least 25,000 megawatt years14. With re-injection, which allows the reservoir to recharge by maintaining pressure and steam rates, the site’s potential is indefinite. Currently, the geothermal power plant covers about 11 square kilometres and has steam for over 400 megawatt years14. Despite the presence of numerous geothermal prospects within Kenya’s boundaries, Olkaria is the only location under advanced development. Olkaria’s geothermal potential is estimated at over 1000 megawatts14. Presently, the site’s installed capacity is approximately 209 megawatts with 240 megawatts under development at Olkaria I and IV and a further 50 megawatts at Olkaria III due for commissioning in 2013 and 2014 respectively15. Power generated at Olkaria meets over 11% of Kenya’s electricity supply. It is thought that by 2019, electricity generation from geothermal resources will supply approximately 20% of Kenya’s electricity14. The overall environmental and socio-economic impact of the Olkaria geothermal plant is considered neutral14. Although Olkaria I initially had minimal impact on flora and fauna, affected sites were restored to near their original states. Stipulated environmental assessments prior to construction, which were legislated in Kenya’s Electricity Act Amendment on renewable energy in 1997, managed to avoid a repeat scenario in the case of Olkaria II and III14. Rather than disposing wastewater in open ditches, as was the case in Olkaria I, Olkaria II and III opted for re-injection. This prevented contamination of water resources with spent brine, which would not only affect humans and animals but also the local eco-system. In addition, Olkaria II and III were designed to better handle dispersion of gaseous emissions, particularly of highly hazardous hydrogen sulphide, compared to Olkaria I. To maintain the beauty of the national park within which the plant exists, the visual impact of steam pipes and the power plant in general have been reduced by the use of a colour scheme that camouflages them in their surroundings14.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Liquid Biofuels Biofuels are combustible solid, liquid or gaseous materials derived from biomass generated by animals, plants, microorganisms and organic wastes16. Bioenergy derived from biomass is a renewable resource with both traditional and modern uses in numerous sectors including domestic heating and lighting, light industry and transport. This section focuses on modern liquid biofuels used in the transport industry. According to the International Energy Agency17, biofuels can potentially account for 27% of total transport fuel by 2050 and mostly replace fossil fuel derived diesel and jet fuel. When produced sustainably, this could avoid emissions of approximately 2.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per annum17.

Biofuel

Basic Technology

Recently, the use of transport biofuels has rapidly grown on the back of policies aimed at the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and achievement of energy security2. Through setting targets and blending quotas, these policies have driven biofuel demand by instituting support mechanisms such as tax exemptions and subsidies17. Mandates obliging the blending of bioethanol with gasoline or biodiesel with diesel have been enacted in over 17 countries. Over and above mandated blending, several countries also have biofuel plans and targets that define future levels of biofuel use17. Despite overlaps in feedstocks, processing technologies and uncertainty on long-term environmental sustainability, transport biofuels are commonly categorised as first, second and third generation. This classification is based on their current or future availability18.

Feedstocks

Co-Products

First Generation Liquid Biofuels Plant oils

Adaptation of motors to the Rapeseed oil, sunflower and use of plant oils. Modification other oil plants, waste of plant oils for use in vegetable oil conventional motors

Oilcake as animal feed

Biodiesel Transesterification of oils and Rapeseed, sunflower, soya fats to provide fatty acid palm, jatropha, castor methyl ester (FAME)

Oilcake as animal feed. Glycerine. Oilcake in some palm oil mills is used for energy recovery

Bioethanol

Maize and cereals yield animal feeds. Sugarcane bagasse is used for energy recovery

Fermentation (Sugar). Hydrolysis and fermentation (Starch)

Corn (maize) and other cereals, sugarcane, cassava, sugar beets

Second Generation Liquid Biofuels Bioethanol Breakdown of cellulosic biomass in several steps including hydrolysis and finally fermentation to Bioethanol

Ligno-cellulosic biomass like stalks of wheat, corn stover and wood. Special energy or biomass crops such as miscanthus. Sugarcane bagasse

Biodiesel

Ligno-cellulosic biomass like wood and straw. Secondary raw materials like waste plastic

Gassification of low-moisture biomass to syngas from which biodiesel is derived.

Various feedstocks for the chemical industry

Third Generation Liquid Biofuels Biodiesel, aviation fuels and bioethanol

Bioreactors for ethanol, Marine macro-algae. transesterification and Microalgae in ponds or pyrolysis for biodiese. bioreactors Other technologies under development

High protein animal feed, biopolymers, agricultural fertilisers, pharmaceuticals

Table 2: The three generations of liquid biofuels with an overview of technologies, key feedstocks and examples of by-products16.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

First generation biofuels are produced largely from food and oil crops as well as animal and vegetable oils through conventional technology19. Having attained economic levels of production, growth in the use and production of first generation biofuels is projected to continue20. Nonetheless, their impact on global energy demand in the transport sector will remain restricted mainly due to their feedstock’s competition for arable land with food and fibre production2. Indeed, the impact of the production of first generation biofuels on food security in the most variable regions of the world economy as well as on global food markets has caused considerable controversy. In addition they have been constrained by the following factors2:

Strengths of algae over first and second generation feedstocks

• Lack of well managed agricultural practices in emerging economies. • Constrained market structures. • High water and fertiliser requirements. • A need for conservation of biodiversity . The potential of first generation biofuels to sustainably replace fossil fuels has thus been in question as an increase in their demand could place substantial additional pressure on the natural resource base with potential harmful environmental and social consequences.

Challenges facing development and commercial use of algae derived biofuels

Microalgae are capable of all year round fuel production therefore they achieve higher yields compared to the best oilseed crops

Attaining higher photosynthetic efficiencies through the continued development of production systems

Microalgae need less fresh water than terrestrial crops therefore reducing the load on freshwater sources

Few commercial plants in operation, thus, a lack of data for large scale plants.

Microalgae can be cultivated on non-arable land, and therefore may not incur land-use change, minimising associated environmental impacts while not compromising the production of food, fodder and other products derived from crops

Potential for negative energy balance after accounting for requirements in water pumping, carbon dioxide transfer, harvesting and extraction

Microalgae have a rapid growth potential and many species have high oil content thus their exponential growth can double their biomass in periods as short as 3.5 hours

Species selection must balance requirements for biofuel production and extraction of valuable co-products

Microalgae biomass production can effect bio-fixation of waste carbon dioxide

Incorporating flue gases which are unsuitable in high concentration owing to the presence of poisonous compounds

Algae cultivation does not require herbicides or pesticides application

Development of techniques for single species cultivation, evaporation reduction, and carbon dioxide diffusion losses

Nutrients for microalgae cultivation can be obtained from wastewater, therefore, apart from providing growth medium, there is dual potential for treatment of organic effluent from the agri-food industry Microalgae can also produce valuable co-products after oil extraction Table 3: The strengths of algae over first and second generation feedstocks and challenges facing the development and commercialisation of algae derived biofuels2.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Rather than food crops, second generation biofuels are extracted mainly from non-food biomass, which includes plant matter of dedicated energy crops such as jatropha, wood processing waste and agricultural and forest harvesting residues. However, their exploitation has been inhibited by concern over land use change and competing land use. Furthermore, conversion technologies for second-generation feedstocks essentially have not attained commercial scales21. Devoid of the key limitations of first and second generation feedstocks, photosynthetic microalgae are capable of utilising simple precursors to produce large amounts of proteins, lipids and carbohydrates over short periods2. These products can be processed not only into various liquid and gaseous biofuels but also other valuable products in processes that also potentially involve carbon dioxide fixation and wastewater treatment2. Based on recent technology projections, microalgae derived liquid biofuels are considered to be technically viable renewable energy resources2. Despite their enormous potential, numerous challenges stand in the way of the sustainable production and commercialisation of algae derived biofuels.

Figure 5: A schematic of an algae processing plant22. Adapted from: Algae-to-Biofuel Tech Gets a Big Aloha. Rubens, 2008. Photos: Hermann Luyken, Andrevruas, NISHIGUCHI, Masahiro, Benutzer KMJ, Umberto Salvagnin

Liquid Biofuels 2025 With supporting policies and relentless research and development efforts, first and second generation biofuels can account for 15% of total transport fuels by 2025. However, the development and successful commercialisation of sustainable advanced biofuel technologies with minimal environmental and social impact is vital. Unlike first and second generation feedstocks, the technically viable production of liquid biofuels from third generation microalgae has the potential to offer both sustainable and renewable transport fuels that do not substantially affect either food security, biodiversity or land use. Opportunities exist to genetically engineer microalgae to drastically increase biofuel and by-product yields. However, commercial scale production of fuel products from engineered organisms may face public opposition. In addition, due to the lack of commercial scale algae processing plants, their environmental impact, in terms of net carbon emissions, and also financial and economic feasibility are yet to be fully investigated. Both commercial and pilot scale studies of cost effective and resource efficient third generation algae biofuel production processes should be the focus of future research and development efforts.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Hydroelectric Power Electricity generation from hydropower is a mature and well-proven technology that is grounded on over 100 years of experience. Hydroelectric power generation is based on harnessing kinetic energy from the gravitational force of falling or flowing water through the use of turbines that drive electricity generators. Hydroelectric technologies are constantly advancing and expanding to reduce costs and incorporate small as well as shallow water resources23. According to the International Energy Agency, the global technical potential of hydropower is estimated at over 16,400 terawatt hours per year and about 19% of this potential has been developed23. Countries that have embraced hydropower use approximately 60% of their potential23. On the other hand, a number of countries have not tapped into their hydropower potential, which in some cases is substantial. As a result, ten countries are responsible for approximately two-thirds of global hydropower potential, with the top five countries responsible for the production of the bulk of global hydroelectric power23. TWh/yr 6000 Production Potential 5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Brazil (25%)

Canada (39%)

Russia (10%)

China (24%)

United States (16%)

Asia and Pacific (18%)

Africa (5%)

Middle East (5%)

Latin America (21%)

Europe (29%)

North America (25%)

Figure 6: The ratio of development of hydropower in different global regions highlighting the top five countries with the highest hydropower potential23. Source: Renewable Energy Essentials: Hydropower ÂŠ IEA, 2010.

Hydroelectric projects may be broadly classified into three highly scalable schemes. While storage schemes generate power from water held in a damâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s reservoir, run-of-river schemes generate power from the natural flow of rivers. Both storage schemes and run-of-river are used for base load generation. Pumped storage hydroelectricity involves the use of two water reservoirs at different heights; water is pumped from the lower to the upper reservoir during low demand periods and released to generate power when demand peaks23. Hydropower installations can range from large with up to 18,000 megawatts installed capacity to small domestic scale generation. Installation cost and ecological impact generally increase with size. Hydropower 2025 Hydropower is a flexible, reliable and efficient resource that can be used to generate substantial base load and peak electricity for domestic, communal and public use thus significantly reducing reliance on fossil fuels and carbon emissions. It has the potential to be a great renewable energy source for developing and emerging economies given its technological maturity and relatively low initial capital requirements. Hydropower research and development promises to expand applicable resources thus making hydropower highly accessible especially for off-grid electricity generation. However, hydroelectric projects can be negatively affected during prolonged dry seasons as storage fluctuates with the weather. In addition, vast amounts of land are required for the installation of large hydroelectric dams and there is high threat of negative social and ecological impacts. The development of medium category hydroelectric power plants after comprehensive environmental assessments may reduce the negative impacts of hydroelectric power generation to manageable levels. When combined with good supporting policies and technological developments that seek to efficiently allow electricity production from small rivers and shallow water resources, this strategy could result in more countries tapping into their previously underdeveloped or neglected hydropower resources and increase hydropower global technical potential to about 23% by 2025.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Case Study: China’s Three Gorges Hydroelectric Dam China’s Three Gorges Hydroelectric Dam spans the Yangtze River and consists of a concrete gravity dam, two power stations, flood control structures and navigation structures27. With a total generating capacity of 22,500 megawatts the project took about 17 years to complete27. The dam generates 20,300 megawatts from a total of 29 turbines each with a capacity of 700 megawatts27. This makes the Three Gorges Hydroelectric Dam the world’s largest in terms of hydroelectric power capacity. Operating at full power, the Three Gorges Hydroelectric Dam has been reported to avoid the annual production of 100 million tonnes of greenhouse gases which would have been generated from the annual use of 31 million tonnes of coal25. In addition, the dam has curbed emissions of 1 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide, 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide and significant amounts of dust and mercury26. The dam’s reservoir increased shipping across the Yangtze River thus avoiding emissions of 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from handling 198 million tonnes of goods over the 2004 to 2008 period. The dam also avoids downstream flooding promoting agriculture and industry. On the other hand, there has been concern over the negative effect of the dam on the region’s forest and waters, which are known to contain rich biodiversity including a number of endangered species27. Some species have been directly affected by either power generation at the site or increased activity around and on the reservoir. The area around the reservoir is also experiencing large scale erosion with most of the eroded sediment collecting on the reservoir thus increasing its weight and threatening to breach the dam28. Furthermore, in the first quarter of 2010, the area experienced 97 significant landslides brought about by this increased erosion29. The Three Gorges Dam also presents a high value target for terrorists.

Nuclear Power Virtually carbon free, nuclear power is generated when thermal energy produced from sustained radioactive decay is passed to a working fluid that is used to drive a turbine powered electricity generator. Nuclear power plants produce reliable base-load power, which accounts for approximately 14% of the world’s electricity production and about 21% of electricity used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development group of countries30. In countries with active nuclear reactors, the share nuclear contributes to energy generation ranges from less than 2% to 75%30. A 1 gigawatt nuclear plant can prevent carbon dioxide emissions of up to 7 million tonnes when used in place of a coal fired power plant 31. At the end of the first quarter of 2012, there were 439 active nuclear power stations located in 31 countries with a net installed capacity of approximately 370 gigawatts of electricity32. A further 63 with a total installed capacity of 60 gigawatts are currently under construction in 15 countries32.

The future of nuclear power remains uncertain mainly due to rising public opposition and increasing safety concerns30. The risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism as well as dangers associated with the handling, mining and storage of nuclear material have negatively affected public opinion on nuclear power. Besides at least three major nuclear powered submarine mishaps, safety concerns arise from serious nuclear power plant accidents, which pose a grave threat to both human life and the environment30. Prime examples include the Three Mile Island accident of 1979, the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 and the Fukushima Daiichi incident of 2011, which recently presented a new global turning point in the future use of nuclear energy. Nuclear Power 2025 Nuclear power offers reliable, low emission, safe base load power, which has high potential to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation. High initial capital requirements and a demand for highly trained and experienced technical expertise limit the use of nuclear power. However, once established, new nuclear plants have low and predictable operating and

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

maintenance costs. Maximising their lifetime while maintaining high safety and operational standards makes good economic sense. Still, nuclear power is plagued by concerns over the handling of nuclear materials including waste and raw materials, handling of nuclear accidents and disasters, rising public opposition and the threat of terrorism and nuclear proliferation. At the moment, these issues seem insurmountable in the absence of tough directives on the sourcing of nuclear material, running of

nuclear power stations as well as waste disposal. Thus a cautious approach to its use prevails globally and is recommended. Given the global threat it poses and the presence of other suitable alternative renewable energy resources with comparatively lower environmental and social risk, highly regulated nuclear power should be used as a last resort and a premium should be charged on its use to fund environmental remediation and social compensation in case of an accident.

Case Study: The aftermath of Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant disaster of 2011 In March 2011, an earthquake and subsequent tsunami damaged Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant; one of the largest nuclear power plants in the world. The incident resulted in the leak of nuclear radiation from the plant to the ground and ocean waters occasioning evacuations over a 20 km radius of the plant. At least 6 workers were found to have exceeded lifetime radiation limits and over 300 received radiation doses. Two people lost their lives at the site33. These deaths were however attributed to the effects of the earthquake and tsunami rather than direct radiation exposure. The Tokyo Power Company and Japanese government were heavily criticized for poor communication and improvised clean up efforts. Japan decommissioned the plant after the incident. The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi incident drastically changed nuclear policy in a number of countries30. In 2010, many countries that employ nuclear energy in their energy mix offered it preferential treatment. This was expressed in the form of extensions on nuclear plant life, boosts in the maximum operating power levels of nuclear plants and investment in the construction of a record breaking 16 new reactors30. After the nuclear incident, while the majority decided to maintain it in their energy mix and cautiously develop it, a number of countries chose to totally phase out nuclear energy30. Furthermore, countries that were contemplating the introduction of nuclear energy to their energy mix either revised or delayed their plans. Thus, in 2011 ground was broken on only 4 new nuclear reactors. To avoid a repeat, regulatory bodies are expected to introduce highly stringent safety standards and rules30. It is thought that this will expedite the closure of old plants by making the approval of reactor life much more difficult to obtain and slow the start of new projects through extended licensing processes30. In addition, this will possibly negatively affect public acceptance of nuclear energy. According to a comparative study on public opinion of nuclear energy taken in 2005 and after the Fukushima accident, public opinion against both existing and new nuclear plants increased significantly. Nuclear power is a relatively safe, important source of electricity, should build new nuclear plants

2011

Use existing nuclear plants but not build new ones 2005

Nuclear power is dangerous, should close down operating plants asap

10%

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other, none of above

Figure 7: Public opinion on nuclear energy before and after Fukushima. Note: Countries in survey data include France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, United Kingdom and United States30. Source: Opposition to nuclear energy grows © GlobScan International, 2011. Image data sourced from Tracking clean energy progress, IEA, 2012.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Establishing Sustainable Energy Systems in Developing Countries Introduction To achieve social and economic development, developing nations will have to increase their energy usage. The World Energy Council35 estimates that global energy demand will rise by 40% over the next 20 years, with the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions increases coming from developing countries. It is essential that this development and the associated increase in energy usage occurs in a sustainable way; one in which greenhouse gas emissions are minimised. About 1.5 billion people worldwide lack access to electricity36. The bulk of these people reside in remote and difficult to access areas that are difficult to connect to existing electricity grids. Remote areas with poor energy access provide a blank canvas where renewable energy systems can be set up to provide energy to vast populations. This sub-chapter outlines a viable approach to promoting the development of sustainable energy systems in predominantly rural

areas in developing countries. Based on the leapfrogging principle, it focuses on initiating locally appropriate, state of the art clean energy supply schemes in viable areas that lack conventional fossil-based energy resources or supplies. The provision of sustainable energy generation solutions encounters the most difficulties in developing countries. This is primarily due to the lack of financial resources needed to purchase and set up often-expensive clean energy systems36. As most developed nations achieved growth via the excessive expenditure of greenhouse producing fossil-based fuels, the call of a transition away from these fuels to alternative energy resources presents a highly divisive issue. Developing countries require copious amounts of cheap energy for social and economic development, which they currently obtain relatively cheaply in the form of fossil fuels. It is thus a challenge to compel them to limit the use of fossil derived energy, which in effect limits their growth, due to its growing global negative environmental effect, an effect an effect most

Case Study: Financing Solar Energy in Tunisia86 Tunisia’s government, with the support of the international community, has taken positive steps to support the development and use of renewable energy. After enacting an energy conservation system in 2005, Tunisia’s government created a funding body that focused on promoting renewable energy technologies as well as energy efficiency. The body is funded by duties levied on fossil fuel powered cars and all air conditioning equipment save for those produced for export. With an initial investment of $200 million on infrastructure, the government has already saved over $1.1 billion in energy bills. Recently, Tunisia’s government put forward a national solar energy plan which centered on photovoltaic systems, concentrating power units and solar water heating systems. This and other complementary schemes are aimed at increasing renewable energy generation in Tunisia from less than 1% to at least 4% in 2014. Overall, the plan hopes to implement 40 projects by 2016 at a cost of $2.5 billion; $175 million will come from the national fund, $1,660 million from the private sector, $530 million from the public sector and $24 million from international cooperation. About 40% of these resources will be spent on energy export infrastructure. The solar energy plan is expected to avoid emissions of 1.3million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually and allow energy savings of up to 22% by 2016. By taking over $5million in loans in 2005 and $7.8 million the year after, currently more than 50,000 Tunisian families generate hot water from the sun. The scheme’s initial investment was $2.5 million with a final installed surface area of 400,000m2. Initially, the government offered interest rate and system cost subsidies to promote the scheme. Numerous jobs were created as evidenced by the registration of 42 technology suppliers and at least 1000 companies carried out installations. Tunisia’s government has set a more ambitious target of 750,000 m2 from 2010 to 2014, a level comparable with Italy and Spain.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

believe they did not heavily contribute to. Recognising the undeniable right to development of developing countries, viable approaches must be exploited to allow them to achieve growth in a sustainable way. A three-pronged approach with schemes targeted at prime factors that limit sustainable growth could be used to promote the development of sustainable energy systems in developing countries. This approach involves: • Financing the development of sustainable energy systems • Improving technology employed in established sustainable energy systems • Furthering the dissemination of information to aid the adoption of sustainable energy systems. Expanding Financing Options Although the adoption of sustainable energy systems largely pays for itself through a reduced reliance on increasingly expensive fossil-based fuels, a significant financial barrier is still present in the high initial capital costs needed to adopt these systems. This appears primarily as the cost of developing new physical infrastructure to support sustainable energy systems which in some cases is prohibitive when compared to the cost of refurbishing and extending outdated established infrastructure or developing new infrastructure that supports the use of readily available and cheap fossil-based fuels36. Governments should take the first step in helping rural communities overcome this initial barrier to obtaining clean energy. Finance can be provided by public-private sector partnerships, brokered investment deals with international institutions like the World Bank and microfinance networks, which can be used by small scale entrepreneurs to gain access to capital needed to set up sustainable energy supply systems. Existing financial institutions should also be encouraged to extend microfinance services to rural communities. Professional microfinance institutions such as those in Sierra Leone, Madagascar and Senegal, can be created. In Senegal, for example, there exists a highly developed microfinance sector that is backed by clear political support and a strong legal and regulatory framework37. Microfinance organisations such as the Senegal Ecovillage Microfinance Fund have been developing financing options for the provision of locally appropriate renewable energy technologies38. This institution recently undertook a project that provided poor households in Dakar with efficient cooking systems that replaced charcoal with a biomass obtained from sustainably managed plantations developed on degraded land38.

Rather than micromanage the development of sustainable energy systems, governments ought to improve available financing options, especially to rural communities thus allowing the adoption of such systems to occur through a free market. Through policy, governments should aim to make markets work, thus stimulate an increased utilisation of sustainable energy sources as well as the development of energy sources which are more locally appropriate. To further support developing countries in their pursuit of the development and utilisation of clean energy resources a global carbon tax initially levied on developed countries could be managed to fund the development of renewable energy and low carbon resources in developing countries. Carbon Tax is essentially a tax on all energy and power derived from carbon based sources, primarily fossil fuels. Besides stimulating the cutting of global carbon emissions, facilitating transfer to cleaner energy and funding operations to mitigate effects of climate change, this fund could be used to introduce sustainable technologies in countries that need them the most. As part of a global carbon reduction strategy, an ‘International Climate Action’ body, under the supervision of an international body such as the United Nations, would be formed to collect and manage the tax from highly developed nations. The tax would be calculated based on the amount of carbon content in fuels and thus the more polluting a fuel is the more tax would be charged on it. Governments within these countries would bear the responsibility of collecting this tax according to a mechanism set up by the international body and transfer it to the international fund. The International Climate Action body would then use the funds for two distinct purposes; promote the global development and use of clean energy sources and initiate anti-climate change operations around the world. In view of the world’s economic conditions and Human Development Indexes for countries, it would be impractical to implement the tax on all countries at once due to economic and political constraints. Thus, the implementation of the tax would be in three phases: firstly in all developed countries, secondly in emerging economies and lastly in developing countries. The international body responsible can set a road map for widening the tax through international consensus. The International Climate Action body would need to be impartial, unbiased and would function through mutual co-operation of the international community. The tax needs to be based on variable rates so that the cleaner a nation’s energy sources become the less tax it has to pay. If Carbon Tax is implemented with dedication and sincerity, it can serve as the ray of hope in the fight to

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

ensure energy and environmental stability. Under such a mechanism, there would be an incentive to rapidly shift to cleaner energy sources. If implemented, such a tax would provide much needed financial support to developing nations thus aid them in achieving sustainable development. Technological Transfer from Developed to Developing Countries Compared to relatively developed cities, rural areas have the capacity to implement clean energy generation systems on a far larger scale. This is because resources do not have to be spent on dismantling existing inefficient fossil-based energy generation infrastructure in rural areas, as they probably have none. Rural areas thus present a clean sheet that allows the adoption of the latest available technology. In effect, this bypasses previous generations of less energy efficient power generation technologies that have a comparatively higher environmental impact. The transfer of technology from developed to developing countries in the sustainable energy field is of high relevance to developing countries, which on their own may have limited technological capability and financial resources to indigenously develop these technologies. Having developed countries provide technological aid to developing countries also recognises their liability for historical emissions.

Training can be provided on basic operational skills such as correct appliance connections and battery usage, as well as routine maintenance procedures40. Training sessions can be organised by the government, the technological sponsors or a collaboration of both. For example, when the German firm AG Schott sponsored the setting up of solar panels for medical use in Baila, Senegal, trainees from the neighbouring technical college worked with experts from Germany and helped to install modules on roofs. German experts also trained local electricians on location, empowering them to independently service the system on a regular basis41. Governments can provide training for local ‘energy specialists’ who could receive a government salary for overseeing local projects and promoting widespread access to clean energy in their local areas. If locals are to be effectively involved in the process of developing sustainable energy systems, there are additional social and economic gains to be reaped. These include job creation and the establishment of a new local sustainable industry.

Distributed Power Systems A Strategic Plan for the Sustainable Global Integration of Distributed Generation Resources Based on Key Low Carbon Technologies and Renewable Resources

• Technology transfer needs assessment, which determines the most suitable technology to transfer

International competitiveness, well-being and the general performance of the world’s nations depend on the ready availability of affordable, secure, safe and sustainable energy. Energy infrastructures that will provide power to public spaces, residences, businesses and industries in the future are being designed and built now. Therefore, patterns for energy generation as well as greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 are already being set. The three main challenges facing the design and build of future energy supply systems are:

• Implementation of technology transfer plans with ongoing refinement and evaluation

• Rapidly growing energy demand, particularly in emerging and developing economies

Technological transfer with relation to sustainable energy generation can be carried out in the multistepped approach outlined by the Climate Technology Initiative39, which involves 3 key steps: • Establishment of collaborative partnerships

Public Education and Human Resource Development Information related to available renewable energy projects, financing options and the benefits of adopting new energy systems needs to be readily available within the population. This enhances social acceptance of these new technologies40. In addition, for long-term project success, human resource development is crucial. The focus of this should be in the operation and maintenance of the new technology.

• High reliance on the use of fossil fuel derived energy in all sectors despite diminishing resources and their high impact on natural ecosystems, economies and society’s social fabric • Effective and efficient exploitation of renewable energy resources and low carbon technologies Distributed power systems that heavily incorporate renewable energy resources and low carbon technologies will have an increasingly key role in the provision of sustainable energy. Other than abating the current heavy dependence on fossil fuels, such power systems would offer increased energy security thus support growth and development both in developing and developed economies.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Distributed generation that reliably meets growing energy demand, with the emission of either no or low associated greenhouse gases, will prove invaluable at not only generating clean and low cost energy but also its efficient distribution at community, national and international scales. This sub-chapter reviews the precedence of distributed power systems over centralised energy generation and transmission. It also provides a strategy for the establishment of sustainable electric energy supply systems based on distributed generation at increasing scales. With an aim of supporting the supply of cheap, secure and reliable energy, the role international and domestic institutions could play to support distributed generation is discussed as well. The Pre-eminence of Distributed Power Systems over Central Power Systems Over the last decade, the changing technological, regulatory and economic environment has brought about increased interest in distributed generation42. A distributed generation resource is an electric power generation source directly connected to either the customer side of an electricity meter or a power distribution network43. Generation that feeds into a distribution network constitute distributed or embedded power systems44. According to the International Energy Agency42, renewed interest in distributed generation has been mainly driven by:

Coal is one of the most abundant fossil fuel resources on the planet and although it is widely used for electricity generation, it is thought to produce higher greenhouse gas emissions than natural gas and petroleum. Low carbon distributed generation technologies such as combined heat and power systems achieve superior energy conversion efficiencies and support the use of a larger variety of renewable and non-renewable fuels compared to traditional fossil fuel based centralised power generation systems. Also, in contrast to traditional centralised power systems in which electric energy is generated in bulk, transmitted over long distances via a central grid and distributed radially to end users, distributed power systems, by definition, generate and distribute energy close to point of use. Thus, distributed generation largely eliminates energy losses associated with centralised transmission44. Indeed, as a result of reduced investment in power transmission and distribution in addition to supplanting higher cost energy generation plants, it is projected that increased use of combined heat and power plants can reduce overall power sector investment by 7% by 203046. The sustainable generation and use of heating, cooling and electric power produced by combined heat and power systems is discussed in more detail later in this sub-chapter.

• Limitations on the development of new electricity transmission lines • Increasing global concern on the effects of climate change • Energy market liberalisation • Innovation in distributed generation technologies • Increasing demand for reliable electricity Compared to centralised systems, distributed power systems minimise energy losses during power generation and transmission as well as drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions related to electricity generation. Traditional coal-fired powered plants only achieve about 33% energy conversion efficiency as high utility heat energy is wasted in almost all stages of the energy conversion process45. For instance, in a typical closed loop coal-burning power station running a closed loop cycle, most of the heat generated during successive conversions of chemical energy to electrical energy is released as waste.

Figure 8: Energy losses, primarily as heat, attributed to centralised coal based generation and transmission as well as inefficient technology at end-use47. Adapted from: What you need to know about energy - Sources and Uses. The National Academies, 2008.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

The Sustainable Integration of Low Carbon Technologies and Distributed Generation Based On Key Low Carbon Technologies and Renewable Resources in Global Energy Systems

• Implementing competitive feed-in tariffs to encourage investment in alternatives and related technologies as well as the sale of surplus renewable electricity to a local, national or regional connected grid

Distributed generation based on the exploitation of a mix of key renewable energy resources has the potential to abate the current heavy reliance on fossil fuels as well as offer increased energy security, with a bonus of reduced environmental impact and greenhouse gas emissions. Interconnected electric networks centred on the supply of power generated from a range of strategic low carbon technologies and resources that include wind power, solar energy, hydropower, geothermal energy, nuclear power and biofuels can drastically reduce energy related carbon emissions while generating substantial amounts of clean energy to meet growing demand.

• Scaling up of national and regional distributed power systems

Three strategic phases can be identified in the bottom up development of international distributed power systems founded on renewable resources and low carbon technologies:

• Small and medium scale storage, pumped storage and run-of-river hydropower

• Promoting community level self-sufficiency with a focus on adequate and efficient electricity generation

Promoting Community Level Self-Sufficiency Community self-sufficiency involves households and local institutions taking the initiative to efficiently produce sufficient amounts of renewable energy to meet their needs. A mix of renewable technologies that could be relatively easily adapted for electricity generation at communal level include: • Crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar • Onshore wind power • Conventional geothermal energy with reinjection

• Combined heat and power systems • Biofuels

Case Study: University Of Warwick’s Combined Heat and Power and District Heating System48 The University of Warwick operates one of the largest gas fired combined heat and power and district heating systems in the United Kingdom. Driven by carbon reduction and effective energy management, between 2007 and 2008, running at 85% efficiency, the system produced over 25,000,000 kilowatt hours of electricity thus avoiding the emission of over 8,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide and saving the university £1 million. With an installed capacity of 4.71 megawatts of electrical power and 14.1 megawatts thermal supply in the form of hot water, the combined heat and power system covers most of the 292-hectre campus. Electricity produced from the plant sufficiently meets the university’s base load requirement hence reducing Warwick’s reliance on the grid. Generated heat is distributed through a 16 kilometre network of underground pipes and provides hot water and heating as well as cooling, via adsorption chillers, to facilities. This district heating system is extended to all new and refurbished buildings in which it contributes to their increased energy efficiency. In the future, the University plans to incorporate low carbon fuel sources such as biofuels to power the combined heat and power and district heating system. Planning permission for the use of such alternative fuels has already been secured. In addition, the development of a local cooling network is in the works. This cooling network will increase summer heat loads and replace inefficient electric air conditioners.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

For use at community level, the availability of effective storage of energy generated by variable renewable resources such as solar and wind is of paramount importance. Save for combined heat and power systems, the potentials of these renewable technologies are discussed in great depth in the previous section, which redefines energy supply based on reviews of the global potential of renewable energy resources. Thus, this section focuses on combined heat and power systems, which highly complement other low carbon technologies for use in the efficient and reliable generation of energy for use in small and medium sized communities. Combined heat and power systems are custom made units that simultaneously utilise heat and power generated from single or multiple energy sources close to the point of use. They are reported to be sustainable, reliable and cost effective across different scales of use. Most solid, liquid and gaseous fuels are suitable for combined heat and power systems44. However, the use of waste industrial gases, biomass and municipal solid wastes are becoming increasingly important due to growing concerns over energy security and environmental pollution46. When used in conjunction with district heating and cooling systems, combined heat and power plants can convert up to 90% of waste and renewable resources into electricity and also meet low and medium temperature heat demands in commercial, public and residential buildings46. Due to their high efficiency, governments have placed more emphasis on the promotion of combined heat and power systems, which has included tax breaks and frameworks for certifications to be exchanged for feed-in tariffs44. The International Energy Agency46 reports that by 2015, combined heat and power has the potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from new generation by 170 million tonnes per year and this could rise to 950 million tonnes per year in 2030. Implementing Competitive Feed-in Tariffs A feed-in tariff is a policy based financial incentive tailored to accelerate investment in renewables by providing investors with a reasonable return of investment. They are typically designed to offer eligible renewable electricity producers guaranteed grid access, long-term contracts for power production and purchase prices based on cost of generation49. By annually decreasing tariff rates, feed-in tariffs may also be formulated to reduce the cost of technology over time49.

Competitive and fair national and regional feed-in tariffs play a crucial role in the reduction of both financial and technical barriers to the generation and local distribution of surplus electricity produced by distributed power systems from key renewable resources. Comprehensively designed and thoughtfully implemented incentives can potentially result in constant growth of new installations that exploit a wide range of renewable resources using increasingly efficient technologies. This could drastically reduce dependence on fossil fuels while providing secure, reliable, sustainable and cheap electricity with low environmental impact. Established national and regional distributed power systems provide a stable platform for renewable energy producers to feed electricity onto larger networks. Effective bottom-up finance strategies can free up the technical, economic and market potential of feedin tariffs for use in distributed power systems. The development of infrastructure that supports highly flexible feed-in systems as well as micro-financing of key renewable installations are vital. Policy should focus on creating a fair and conducive forward-looking developmental, financial and regulatory environment.

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Case Study: Feed-in Tariffs and the Future of Renewable Energy in Germany50 The German energy market is in the process of an unprecedented paradigm shift from reliance on centralised power systems running on fossil fuels and nuclear power towards decentralised power systems that heavily rely on efficient power generation from a strategically selected range of low carbon technologies. The Renewable Energy Act of 2000 and the amendment of it in 2004 and 2008, which guaranteed grid connection and feed-in tariff rates, sparked this drastic change resulting in a thriving renewable energy industry and world leading growth in the use of several renewable energy resources including wind power, biomass, solar energy and hydropower in Germany. The success of Germany’s feed-in tariff system can be attributed to its design, which serves as an archetype of similar legislation all around the world. It mainly incorporates: • Effective financing through a cost sharing mechanism thus ensuring cost per consumer remains low and keeps energy financing away from party politics and the national budget. • Guaranteeing tariff rates over a fixed 20 year period safeguarding profitability in energy production and security in investments • Yearly tariff rate reductions spurring innovation and leading to energy sector growth • Prioritising of energy plants and technologies legally covered by tariffs • Imposition of priority purchase obligation to grid operators so renewable energy is purchased ahead of energy from other sources • Determination of a good tariff rate based on cost of generation from renewables that is neither too high to reward producers at the expense of the population nor too low to deter investment. On the strength of its world leading renewable energy policies, Germany has set the following ambitious targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy supply: • Renewable electricity – 35% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 • Renewable energy – 18% by 2020, 30% by 2030, and 60% by 2050 • Energy efficiency – Cutting the national electrical consumption 50% below 2008 levels by 2050

Scale Up of National and Regional Distributed Power Systems Establishment of multinational super grids is the third and final step in fulfilling the full potential of distributed power systems. Besides making it possible to employ efficient technologies in the transmission of high volumes of electricity across vast distances, super grids allow the large-scale distribution of renewable electricity produced from either remote onshore locations or offshore installations88. Effective implementation of a high capacity electricity transmission can safeguard security of supply across vast regions by complementing existing distributed generation.

The implementation of super grids plays an essential role in phasing out the use fossil fuels. Bulk electricity transmission over long distance can be carried out using efficient High Voltage Direct Current Lines. The management of large-scale super grids calls for the use of smart grid technologies that are capable of detecting and instantaneously responding to network imbalances. Responses that protect the network form power fluctuations brought about by variable renewable generation can be automated and include schemes that either reduce load or reduce generation88. It is essential that the selected mix of renewable resources exploited for electricity generation for both super grid transmission and large scale distributed

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generation is based on sufficiently abundant and flexible resources that support the supply of ample amounts of energy to meet growing demand while maintaining minimal environmental impact. Key resources and low carbon technologies that can be sustainably utilized to supply electricity on a large scale include: • Offshore and onshore wind farms

• Crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar and concentrating photovoltaics • Enhanced geothermal energy and conventional geothermal energy with reinjection • Combined heat and power systems • Highly regulated nuclear energy

• Small and medium scale storage, pumped storage and run-of-river hydroelectric dams

Case Study: Desertec Project51 DESERTEC is a co-development project for the exchange of electricity generated from renewable resources in the Mediterranean basin. The DESERTEC concept proposes to not only sustainably generate electric power from a mix of strategic renewable resources based on technical and geographic potential assessments, but also efficiently transmit it to end-users by use of an interconnected power grid. The project aims to provide 15% of Europe’s electricity by 2050 at an estimated cost of €400 billion. Promoted by the non-profit DESERTEC Foundation, the DESERTEC concept is essentially centred on studies carried out at the German Aerospace Centre between 2004 and 2007. These studies included predictions of water and energy demand in Europe, Middle East and North Africa region until 2050; an analysis of available renewable resources and assessments of the potential of an integrated electricity network within that region. With support from the international business and scientific community, civil society and policy makers, the DESERTEC industrial initiative in collaboration with a consortium of European and African companies aims to showcase the feasibility of this concept. Eventually the project intends to implement an integrated and decarbonised power system within the studied region by 2050. The main technologies under consideration are: • Concentrated solar power

• Hydropower

• Biomass

• Wind energy

• Geothermal energy

• High voltage direct current.

• Photovoltaic solar The DESERTEC project forms part of the backbone of the European super grid which ultimately aims to establish a wide area electricity network that links Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and the wide area synchronous transmission grid of certain commonwealth of independent states countries. By linking super grid and smart grid capabilities, this massive collaboration project would result in the formation of a SuperSmart grid. Key obstacles that stand in the way of achieving the goals of the DESERTEC project include: • Centralised solar energy plants and transmission lines may become easy targets for terrorist attacks • Political and cultural obstacles • Delays due to possible bureaucratic red tape • Social concerns over water requirements for cooling concentrated solar power turbines and maintaining solar panels • Heavy reliance on solar energy • Cost of transmission of energy over long distances.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

To meet the high land requirement and financial costs of developing a super grid, countries will have to coordinate and pull together resources. High level of technology transfer and sharing of good practice and environmental data is crucial for the continued competitiveness and sustainability of large electricity networks. This is particularly true for developing economies, which face design and construction challenges in the establishment of sustainable electricity infrastructure and exploitation of energy resources. Localized innovative solutions may allow developing countries to generate adequate sustainable energy for societal and economic development52.

Role of International and Domestic Institutions in Promoting Distributed Power Systems A classic top down approach, in which directives, policies and rules are established through a cascade of agreements of increasing level of detail, is necessary to effectively realise the potential of distributed power systems. This typical approach allows powerful institutions such as international and national bodies to put in place impartial rules with wide latitude for interpretation while less powerful institutions have increasing power to influence policy. The Kyoto Protocol exemplified the effectiveness of this approach.

International laws and regulations Directives

National primary legislation Acts of Parliament

National Secondary Education Detailed drafting of Acts of Parliament and subsequent formation of statutory instruments in primary legislation

Licence conditions arising from primary and secondary legislation

Industry codes managed by governance bodies These bodies often arise from legislation and licence conditions and are semi-autonomous to the industry

Direct regulation, interpretation of rules and laws and determination, (arbitration )by the regulator

Direct action, guided by primary legislation (energy specific, or general laws such as competition law), by government bodies

Bilateral and multilateral agreements between entities, both regulated and unregulated

Additional self regulation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; generally through industry codes, signed on to voluntarily and multilaterally agreed

Figure 9: Agreements involved in a top-down approach to realising the potential of distributed power systems44.

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Policies created by supranational institutions have substantial power as they tend to be long term and international in scope thus do not simply represent lobbying points or aggregate country views on policies44. Supranational institutions assume independent entities thus allowing them a high level of objectivity in their approach to creating directives. Due to this they often do not compromise on issues. For instance, they prioritise the cost of environmental measures over a member countries economic growth44. Given the prevailing global energy crisis, supranational institutions have the crucial role of creating and policing directives that promote sustainable energy generation as well as the use and research and development of technologies that can offer member states safe and reliable energy for secure growth. To allow full enforcement, directives have to be transposed in the national laws of member states. Domestic institutions consist of policy stakeholders and influencers.

Domestic institutional players

According to Harris44, although each domestic player has a different form of influence, which in many cases exists in tension with the next, and political actions are considered short term as they correspond to election cycles, domestic institutions play a major role in supporting distributed power systems. To support the use of key selected technologies and renewable resources, individual governments and the international community must explore their respective renewable energy portfolios, prioritise their energy needs against available resources and enact development policies that focus on the reduction of greenhouse gases and support technology and financial support as well as the provision of cheap, clean reliable and secure energy from grass root level. Policies should promote the use of a strategic mix of renewable resources and they must stipulate comprehensive and regular environmental assessments for every renewable energy project.

Possible role

Parliament and election manifesto promises from the ruling party

Policy formation

Government ministries, legislature and civil service â&#x20AC;&#x201C; local, regional, national authorities and inspectorates for example for health and safety and environment

Policy design and formulation. Enforcement planning and prioritising

Government sponsored watchdogs

Monitoring policy. Education and raising awareness

Issue based pressure groups and charities

Raising awareness. Financing green initiatives. Monitoring policy implementation

Government initiatives

Financing research and development

Think tanks, universities, prominent individuals

Monitoring policy, assessing potential

Table 4: Possible roles of domestic institutional players in the promotion of distributed power systems.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

The Challenge

Demand All global sectors, including industry, domestic and communal heating and lighting, transport and commercial sectors, require energy. According to Wrigley53, prior to the industrial revolution, the dominant source of global energy was derived from products of photosynthetic processes in plants. Photosynthesis provided food and fodder that was converted to mechanical energy in human and animal muscle power. It was also the source of heat energy derived from wood, which was used in industry as the main source of energy for material production.

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Introduction Then, the world’s economy was said to be organic in nature and highly dependent on land, labour and capital. However, unlike labour and capital, which had indefinite expansion potential, land was a limiting factor to growth. If the growth in iron production from the smelting process was still based on charcoal, the whole of Britain’s land surface would have to be covered in woodland to meet mid-nineteenth century scales of production53. Increased access to long stockpiled products of photosynthesis, primarily coal, freed organic economies from their production constraints. Coal was a convenient substitute to wood for the generation of heat energy for industry and domestic use. Until the eighteenth century, mechanical energy was still dependent on muscle power and thus remained constrained by the limitations of plant photosynthetic processes53. The ability to convert heat energy to mechanical energy came with the development of steam engines. The steam engine solved the issues of limited energy supply for both industrial and transport use thus propelling the industrial revolution. The industrial revolution radically changed global energy use in all sectors. Since then, the use of coal and other fossil fuels as primary fuel sources has multiplied by many folds. Currently, fossil fuels meet the bulk of the world’s total energy demand and this is expected to be the case in 202554. Nonetheless, the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, produced from the increasing combustion of fossil fuels, has been linked to global warming, a key contributing factor to global climate change55. In light of this as well as other major supply related issues56, a radical reduction in the consumption of fossil fuels, a non-renewable energy resource, in all sectors has become imperative. This chapter on demand focuses on key strategies that can reduce energy consumption in all sectors thus reducing demand of fossil fuel derived energy and manage the use of alternative energy. The effective use of incentives and social media in effecting sustained behaviour changes in consumers with regard to generation and use of energy is discussed. In addition, energy efficiency in industry and transport sectors as well as the use of alternative energy resources is examined alongside energy demand management and energy efficiency in buildings and appliances.

Effecting Sustained Consumer Behavioural Change - Energy Generation and Usage Introduction Policies that support energy efficiency and adoption of alternative, clean energy technologies play a key role in the reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions and advancement of sustainable development. Nevertheless, public and private initiatives based on such policies can only be effective and sustained if consumer behaviour is more or less in synchrony with the principles and objectives of these policies. It is imperative that future schemes that aim to promote energy efficiency and alternative energy technologies are designed and delivered to achieve stimulated changes in individual and collective consumer behaviour in regard to both the generation and use of energy. Effecting a change in consumer behaviour is, however, highly challenging as a host of elements, including lifestyles, attitudes, values, general awareness and income levels, vary from one individual to the next. As combinations of highly divergent elements influence the extent as well as ease of change of individual behaviour, there is no standard approach to achieving behavioural modification. Nevertheless, incentivisation and the strategic use of social networks present viable options that could potentially lead to changes in behaviour that result in a long-term shift in the way individuals and groups value energy. This sub-chapter explores the complementary use of effective incentive schemes and smart social networking to increase engagement with individual and collective energy consumers with the aim of influencing behavioural changes in the generation and use of energy. Incentivisation Through the elimination of barriers, incentives motivate and encourage customers to undertake a course of action that could ultimately result in a change in behaviour. The effective provision of sound incentive schemes can enhance the proliferation of low carbon energy generation technologies and increase deployment of energy efficient measures, thus reducing dependence on fossil fuels and curbing rising carbon emissions. However, it is imperative that incentive schemes are designed and delivered in ways that do not result in individuals undertaking environmentally sustainable behaviours only when rewarded to do so. Incentives can be used to promote a range of proenvironmental actions. Governments and energy providers, through the use of incentives, can promote energy efficiency and the adoption of low carbon energy generation technologies.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

However, the overall success of some of these incentive schemes can be heavily dependent on additional, supportive incentive schemes. Energy Efficiency Incentive Schemes Energy efficiency schemes offer a range of financial, non-financial and bundled incentives that aim to: further investment in energy efficient technologies; promote the use of related services and foster changes in consumer behaviour. These incentives are provided at different points of the energy product and service market with schemes ranging from those targeted at market supply chain players with an aim to boost their influence over customer choices, to those aimed at specific customer purchase transactions57. The complexity of these schemes range from simple cash rebates to technical assistance and highly tailored financial incentives57.

Enhancing the Prospects of Incentive Schemes through the Effective Delivery of Information Services Information services are non-financial incentives that heighten the general outcome of other non-financial, financial or bundled incentive schemes and related services when provided with them. A broad market reach, low costs and ability to tackle fundamental barriers make information services potent support systems for incentive schemes aimed at promoting energy efficiency or low carbon energy generation57. Indeed, when used to support incentives aimed at promoting energy efficiency, information service incentives have been shown to have relatively low-cost and a high impact on consumer behavior57. However, to realise a long-term impact, information services schemes are highly dependent on continuous funding 57. In addition, comparatively, they suffer from high evaluation costs.

Low Carbon Energy Generation Incentives There exists three key incentive schemes which offer a variety of options that can be deployed to reduce barriers and promote the generation and use of low carbon electricity. While legal framework incentives offer non-monetary awards that attract suitable investors, investment-based incentives and production based incentives mainly offer monetary awards to participating consumers, companies and institutions proportional to capital expenditure and clean electricity produced, respectively58. Production based incentive schemes with well-designed parameters have proven highly effective at stimulating the growth of privately installed, low carbon electricity production facilities for domestic, commercial and industrial use. Feed-in tariffs are pre-eminent production based schemes which have been adopted by numerous countries around the world to incentivise consumers to engage in the sustainable generation of low carbon electricity for use across different sectors and regions. They have also been used to promote the exploitation of a range of renewable energy resources using increasingly low cost and efficient technologies. The design of feedin tariffs and their key role in generating cheap, safe and reliable electricity for use in distributed power systems based on low carbon technologies and renewable energy resources is discussed in further detail under distributed power systems in the energy supply chapter.

Figure 10: A summary of incentive programmes that can be used to promote energy efficiency57. Adapted from: Customer Incentives for Energy Efficiency Through Program Offerings. National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010.

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By providing training aimed at promoting specific skills and addressing technology issues, information services demystify incentive plans through the provision of basic information and guidance57. Information services schemes are also effective at influencing the actions of players involved at different levels of the energy product and service market thus increasing the desired effect of associated incentive schemes57. They can be used to clarify product branding programmes like Energy Star, offer technology-specific information and train contractors to effectively sell energy efficient products57. Thus information services are indispensable to some newly launched financial and non-financial incentives as well as incentives under final development stages prior to launching.

Location, performance and scope are three crucial factors that determine the long-term success of information service centres. Information service centres should be conveniently located and accessible to all consumers and energy sector players. Locally based walk in advisory centres complemented by exhaustive, well indexed and regularly updated official websites with intuitive mobile and tablet applications, can provide customers with quick, easy access to a range of current technical, legal and finance information on various incentives. While operating in areas where energy is supplied via distributed power systems, walk in advisory centres could operate on a performance basis in which, in addition to other parameters, their impact on energy efficiency and renewable energy generation in areas

Case Study: Britain’s Green Deal Centred on a good understanding of behavioural economics, Britain’s Green Deal aims to enable private firms, charities and local authorities to provide consumers with energy efficient improvements to homes, businesses and community spaces at no upfront cost and recover payments via a charge in instalments on energy bills59. It is hoped that this flagship scheme, which is scheduled to launch after October 2012, will contribute to carbon emission reductions and therefore support the United Kingdom in meeting its carbon budget. It is projected that, based on 2008 levels, the Green Deal will play a major role in driving the reduction of carbon emissions in homes and communities by 29% and 13% in businesses by 202259. The scheme heavily relies on innovative financing that essentially allows customers to pay the cost of energy efficient measures taken through savings made on their energy bills. The central tenet of the scheme, the golden rule, is ‘Repayments should not exceed amounts saved’59. The incentive thus overcomes the high up-front cost barrier associated with pursuing energy efficient solutions. The scheme hopes to reduce the stress involved in planning and execution of energy efficient measures59. In addition, it is expected to increase public awareness on the cost reduction benefits of a range of energy efficient measures and steps home and business owners could take to improve their sustainability59. According to the International Energy Agency, the public’s lack of trust in the six largest energy firms in the United Kingdom might undermine the Green Deal60. There are fears that high prices, misselling and poor services will deter customers. Additional criticisms against the scheme include61 – 65: • Lack of enthusiasm in stimulating demand for the adoption of the scheme • Lack of competition amongst suppliers • Doubts over the successful practical implementation of the golden rule • Uncertainty over the future of the Green Deal for business • Concern that the scheme will primarily benefit only the middle class and not be viable for the working class or other groups who need it most • Fears that the scheme will not achieve overall significant carbon cuts prior to the success of larger acts of intervention aimed at the promotion of the use of cleaner fuels.

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within their jurisdiction could be initially benchmarked depending on local potential and subsequently monitored and evaluated over a fixed period. Besides possibly increasing their local impact, this approach could also reduce evaluation costs. Most incentive schemes focussed on resource utilisation ultimately aim to achieve sustainability and efficiency in the sourcing, production and consumption of the resource in question and other intimately related resources. Information service schemes can be effective portals for disseminating important additional material relevant to resource sustainability in appropriate context. For instance, over and above training building operators on energy management measures, information services that promote consumer energy efficiency can be used to promote alternative transport options and the sustainable use of water resources too. The Use of Social Media to Effect Behaviour Change in Young People In addition to engaging individual energy consumers, reaching out to individuals as members of a community represents an essential approach to realising a change in energy related behaviour. Through the influence of social signalling, norms and spread of behaviours, social networks present vital vehicles through which sustained and widespread adoption of pro-environmental

Block

behaviours can be achieved66,67. Decades of research in psychology confirm the undeniably immense power of social influence: the propensity for individuals to assume the behaviour, opinions and judgements of others68,69,70. Social media can be used to stimulate broad and fruitful global discussions on technologies, traditional and novel ideas and policies surrounding environmental issues including energy resources thus unlocking the potential of social networks to effect longterm behavioural changes in energy. Social media offers a highly interactive platform founded on web-based and mobile technologies through which individuals and communities can create, share, modify and discuss user generated content71. According to Kietzmann71, social media has seven functional blocks with social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter differing in their functionality and scope. Through the careful management of related implications, the power of differential functionality of popular social media sites can be leveraged to allow individuals, consumer groups, organisations and government agencies to openly discuss energy and environmental issues. This has the potential to bring local and global problems such as effects of climate change to the forefront through the effective and targeted use of content such as videos, weblogs and pictures.

Function

Implications

Presence

The extent to which users know if others are available

Creating and managing the reality, intimacy and immediacy of the content

Sharing

The extent to which users exchange, distribute and receive content

Content management system and social graph

Identity

The extent to which users reveal themselves

Data privacy controls and rules for user self-promotion

Relationships

The extent to which users relate to each other

Managing the structure and flow properties in a network of relationships

Reputation

The extent to which users know the social standing of others and content

Monitoring the strength, passion sentiments and reach of users and brands

Groups

The extent to which users are ordered or form communities

Membership rules and protocols

Conversation

The extent to which users communicate to each other

Conversation velocity and the risks of starting and joining

Table 6: The seven functional blocks of social media and their implications71.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Through effectual management of the functional implications of social mediaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s building blocks, the power of social media can be harnessed to create a multidimensional platform that can be used to organise global youth groups with interests in issues related to low carbon technologies and environmental sustainability. Currently, although working towards fulfilling related goals, young individuals involved in a range of conservation and sustainable development initiatives such as the United Nations Education Scientific and Cultural Organisationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Climate Change initiative are not constructively networked to each other either socially or professionally in a dedicated social media platform. The establishment of a primarily student-led social and professional network that caters to fostering the exchange of pro-environmental ideas and information between young individuals from different backgrounds and countries can stimulate a long-term change in behaviour on a global level.

Block

An initial step to achieving productive engagement needed to build the proposed network would involve connecting influential, knowledgeable and hyper-connected individuals involved in local or global sustainability initiatives. Such a network could organically grow to accommodate individuals and groups with similar and divergent views on issues around global resource sustainability. It is imperative that this new online community maintain close links with various policy formulation, teaching and research institutes around the world as well as international organisations. In addition to increasing project opportunities in which youth could be involved with, such valuable links would be exploited for intellectual resources.

Function

Implications

Presence

Focused on detailed geographical and virtual presence which supports a range of selective availability statuses

Supporting enhanced user synchrony that is closely linked to conversations and relationships

Sharing

Highly facilitated general or private content sharing that allows easy conversation and networking

Use of a content management system and social graph which allows sharing of largely pro-environmental or related content

Identity Complete accurate profiles for self- branding purposes with user social identity akin to real identity Relationships

Implementing high data privacy controls and rules for user self-promotion. Maintaining a careful balance between protecting privacy and sharing identities

Provision of both informal and High level of monitoring of both unstructured relationships with formal, structure and flow with a need to regulated and structured relationships validate user authenticity and clearly based on existing relationships on display user identities. other social network sites

Reputation User reputation based on both endorsement and content

Implementation of a metric and rating system to generate objective and collective reputation data from endorsements and content respectively

Groups

Managed groups that allow further sub-grouping with open, approval required or invitation only categories

Establishing basic grouping which allows further user generated and formally regulated group formation

Conversation

Highly facilitated and reviewable messaging and weblog and micro-blog conversation among individuals and groups with search and review functions

Allowing a high level of monitoring of conversation velocity

Table 7: Seven functional blocks of a proposed novel social media network focused on professional pro-environmental networking and their related implications.

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The framework of the proposed network in terms of functionality and scope could be moulded on the seven functional building blocks of social media. Essentially the proposed network should be largely focussed on identity, reputation, relationships and sharing. This network would be based on six key elements: • Developing both general and niche pro-environmental professional networks for individual users and groups on a local and global level based on new and existing social networks • Creating, indexing and maintaining professional and credible content with a focus on weblogs, videos, conference proceedings and related material with a variety of pro-environmental content • Offering messaging facilities and dynamic discussion forums • Sharing all content flawlessly across popular social media sites • Incorporation of several bookmarking sites ranking sites by voting on the value of their content • Creating and maintaining valuable networks with professional institutions Expanding global formal education curricula to accommodate lessons on global resources and sustainability is key to the growth and vibrancy of the proposed social network. A variety of teaching and learning strategies are particularly appropriate for fostering the use of the proposed network. This includes age-level appropriate interdisciplinary instructional teaching and learning; engaging students in and out of the classroom; involving students in long-term projects and creating an atmosphere of purposeful conversation and reflection about complex social and environmental issues. Overcoming communication and language barriers will be a priority issue to address. Enabling the real time translation of content to English can overcome this issue. To spread relevant ideas to places that lack internet access, local and international volunteer ambassadors could organise seminars and workshops to keep interested communities informed. Ambassadors would have to possess locally appropriate and relevant information.

Promoting Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Alternatives in Global Transport and Industry Implications of Global Future Trends in Personal and Public Transport Future car ownership trends have important implications on sustainable personal and public transport. According to the IEA72, due to high car

ownership, passengers in most developed countries travel an estimated average of 5,000 kilometres annually, mostly using cars. While in developed countries low ownership of motorised transport inhibits passenger travel, growing car ownership in emerging economies is stimulating increased travel. In the near future, car ownership and thus possibly travel distances in most emerging economies is expected to approach ownership levels in developed countries. Annual passenger travel (billion passenger kilometres)

rth

Fo r

ica

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

cif

vie

Ea s

sia

La tin

Ea s

ica

ric

3 wheelers

Minibuses

2 wheelers

Buses

Light trucks

Rail

Cars

Air

Figure 11: Estimated annual passenger travel by region and mode73. Source: Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Towards Sustainability © IEA, 2009

A comparatively high proportion of passenger travel in countries with projected high car ownership levels is likely to be provided by personal vehicles72. To reduce the negative environmental impact of this, increased provision of safe non-motorised modes of transport as well as highly sustainable private and public vehicles with improved fuel economy running on cleaner fuels is essential. On the other hand, in the case of countries projected to attain ownership levels lower than 400 light duty vehicles per 1000 population by 2050, it will be crucial that a variety of affordable, efficient and sustainable motorised vehicles for public use and safe non-motorised options are provided.

Light duty vehicles per 1000 population

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Lack of infrastructure in the form of clear and safe sidewalks and cycle lanes is a major impediment to the increased use of non-motorised transport72. Providing infrastructure that adequately supports non-motorised transport should be high on international and local agendas. Emerging and developing economies should discuss the provision of such infrastructure during urban planning.

600 500 400 300 200 100

Promoting Fuel Economy

0 2010

2020

2030

2040

OECD North America

Middle East

OECD Europe

India

OECD Pacific

Latin America

China

Other Asia

Eastern Europe

Africa

2050

FSU

Figure 12; Projections of light duty car ownership per 1000 population by country/region74. Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2010; Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 © IEA 2010.

Energy Efficient Vehicles and the Use of Alternative Energy in the Transport Sector The transport sector accounts for about 27% of the world’s total global energy use and it is responsible for approximately 23% of global carbon dioxide emissions74. Based on global transport trends, to develop an efficient, sustainable and competitive transport sector, future regulatory and fiscal policy, investment as well as research and development efforts should focus on three basic alternative solutions: 1. Encouraging the use of non-motorised transport 2. Promoting fuel economy 3. Developing hybrid electric vehicles Encouraging the use of Non-motorised Transport Non-motorised transport is the most sustainable transport mode72. Cycling and walking are responsible for a high share of travel globally especially in major cities in developed countries and small towns and rural areas in developing countries. As cities explore sustainable transport solutions, the development of non-motorised transport systems becomes increasingly important72. To help reduce dependency on cars and curb carbon emissions as part of a wider green transport strategy, many cities are embracing Smart Bike based cycle hire schemes. These schemes allow the shared use of bicycles and they exist in numerous urban cities around the world including: London, Dublin, Paris, Greece Cyprus, Montréal, Mexico City, Washington DC, Beijing, Tel Aviv, Melbourne and Mumbai.

Fuel economy can play a central role in reducing future transport sector carbon dioxide emissions. It is important that new vehicles become increasingly less energy intensive to reduce transport sector demand for fossil fuels. To reduce the future cost of fuel subsides, fuel economy is imperative for rapid motorising countries. Grand fuel economy targets, such as that pursued by the Global Fuel Economy Initiative that seeks a 50% reduction in new car energy intensity compared to 2005 levels, are setting high benchmarks for future vehicle efficiency75. Research by the International Energy Agency72 points to a host of cost efficient technologies presently available to achieve this target, which calls for every country to achieve 3% annual improvement in new car fuel economy. Tested Fuel Economy (lge/100km) 5.2

6.0

6.9

7.8

8.6

India Portugal Italy Malta France Japan Belgium Poland Spain Czech Republic Hungary Slovenia Romania Slovakia Austria EU27 Denmark Ireland Greece Indonesia Turkey Luxembourg Brazil Egypt UK Netherlands Cyprus Mexico Germany Chile Argentina Malaysia South Africa Finland China Ukraine Estonia Lithuania Latvia Russia Thailand Sweden USA Australia

9.5

10.3

2005 2006

Registrations 1 million 10 million

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Figure 13: Fuel economy of new light duty vehicles in selected countries75. Source: International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics © GFEI, 2011.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

These technologies include: • Lightweight materials • Engine efficiency technologies • Low rolling resistance tyres • Improved aerodynamics An additional benefit of increased research and development of technologies related to fuel economy is the possible transfer of technology to the aviation and merchant shipping industry. With strong policy support and global collaboration leading to the establishment of international fuel economy standards, achievement of the Global Fuel Economy Initiative’s target, as well as other equally ambitious fuel economy targets, is possible. International collaboration should also extend to establish fuel economy standards for the aviation and merchant shipping industry. Developing Hybrid Electric Vehicles Hybrid electric vehicles utilise an internal combustion engine and at least one electric motor to operate. Battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles offer the possibility of low or no fossil derived fuel use as well as low carbon dioxide emissions and pollution. It is thought that by 2020, hybrid vehicles will account for 2% of global vehicle fleet and attain sales of over 7 million units and stocks of over 20 million units76. Hybrid electric technology has high potential for urban private as well as public vehicle use in countries with a low carbon electricity mix76. The increasing use of liquid biofuels in the transport sector further reduces emissions of hybrid electric vehicles that employ internal combustion engines. Driven by strong policy support in over 50 countries, the use of biofuels has grown in leaps and bounds over the past ten years. Currently, bioethanol and biodiesel supply around 3% of road transport fuels and this contribution is expected to grow in the future76. In addition, jet fuel processed from third generation algae biofuel feedstocks as well as technologies applied in the development of efficient hybrid engines can prove useful in providing energy and sustainable designs for low emission ships and planes. To achieve their high potential, policy support should focus on: • Promoting the development of recharging infrastructure • Implementing incentives such as priority access to urban parking spaces and offers for the exchange of low energy intensity combustion engine vehicles for hybrid vehicles

• Supporting research and development of battery technology with aim to increase safety and efficiency as well as lower the cost of batteries to advance the development of fully electric vehicles • Promoting the use of hybrid technology in public travel by reduced taxation and reduced fares for commuters • Supporting the commercial deployment of advanced biofuels from feedstocks such as microalgae which have the additional advantage of producing jet fuel for aviation industry use. Promoting Low Carbon and Energy Efficient Industrial Processes The use of energy in industry accounts for approximately 33% of total global energy use and 40% of energy related carbon dioxide emissions76. If this goes unchecked, it is projected that carbon emissions from the energy intensive industrial sector will increase by about 30% by 202076. The energy intensity of an industry is largely dictated by the energy efficiency of both individual components and processes72 Measures to ensure energy efficiency should be deployed in all industries, especially energy intensive industries such as chemical and petrochemical, iron and steel, cement, aluminium and paper, pulp and print industries. EJ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Iron and steel 2000 2009 Chemicals and petrochemicals 2000 2009 Non-ferrous metals 2000 2009 Non-metallic minerals 2000 2009 Paper, pulp and print 2000 2009 Other industries 2000 2009

OECD

India

Other non-OECD

China

Figure 14: Comparative energy use in different industry sectors and regions in 2000 and 200976. Source: Tracking clean energy progress © IEA, 2012.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

To improve energy efficiency, industries should embark on incorporating:

• Combined heat and power and district heating and cooling systems

• Energy efficient technologies

• Onshore and offshore wind farms

• Alternative materials

• Photovoltaic solar systems and solar farms

• Recycling and energy recovery

• Storage and pumped storage hydropower

• Fuel and feedstock switching

• Geothermal energy

Carbon dioxide capture and storage presents a potent low carbon technology that will be available in the future. Still a nascent technology, it is based on capturing carbon dioxide from industrial and energy generation processes and transporting it to a geological or ocean storage location for long term sequestration from the atmosphere. The commercial deployment of carbon capture and storage technology will offer a low cost greenhouse gas mitigation strategy for industrial use 77.

• Highly regulated nuclear energy

According to the IEA76, immediate action that energy intensive industries could take to save on energy use and reduce carbon emissions include; the adoption of best available technology in optimising production, building, and retrofitting in addition to good manufacturing practices. Renewable energy and efficient power generation technologies can also offer adequate amounts of cheap low carbon energy for industry use. Commercial low emission technologies suited for heavy and light industrial processes in both developing and developed economies include:

The future use of industrial flue gases with high carbon dioxide quantities but low toxic gas levels to grow microalgae cultures for commercial biofuel production presents a possible sustainable option of dealing with applicable industrial emissions2. These renewable and alternative technologies are discussed in more detail in the energy supply chapter. Policy wise, countries have taken different approaches to promote energy efficiency in industry72. Several countries have introduced fiscal incentives to promote the purchase of energy efficient equipment. A number of countries have created benchmarking tools that specify appropriate energy efficient equipment for use in public sector or company procurement. Also, many countries are increasing the promotion of energy management in industry through quality assurance, training and management certification. Governments have also funded large-scale carbon capture and storage demonstration projects. Currently, there are 77 planned and operational demonstration projects in several countries including the United States, European nations, Canada, Norway, Australia and China72.

268 projects OECD (39%) Non-OECD (61%)

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Figure 15: Projected global deployment of carbon capture and storage showing number of projects and carbon captured77. Source: Technology roadmap; Carbon Capture and Storage © IEA, 2009.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Energy Demand Management Introduction Energy Demand Management initiatives, also known as Demand Side Management initiatives, alter consumer electricity load shapes and reduce the total cost of energy for both participating individuals and society78. In light of rising energy prices, environmental concerns and the need to enhance energy security, the implementation of policies that promote the use of advanced technologies and practices to provide the same level of service or output is critical to meet future growth in energy demand79. Such policies, which also promote fuel switching and distributed energy, can ease the impact of power shortfalls and infrastructure bottlenecks, conserve resources and through reduced costs improve commercial and industrial competitiveness79. However, handling the shape of energy loads and the level of energy load are two different, yet complimentary aspects80. It is necessary to ensure efficiency at the point of consumption; devices and infrastructures must not be wasteful. This section focuses on energy efficiency in regards to measures aimed at reducing energy requirements for services in buildings and appliances. It also examines smart meters and their role in energy conservation. Energy Efficient Buildings Currently, commercial and residential buildings account for about 32% of global energy use76. Buildings are responsible for approximately 10% of direct energy related carbon dioxide emissions and at least 30% of end use energy related carbon dioxide emissions76.

By 2050, due to rapid population growth resulting in the construction of new buildings, energy demand in the building sector would have doubled76. In the pursuit of energy efficiency in buildings, it is imperative that stringent requirements for energy saving in new buildings and retrofits of existing buildings have to be set and maintained. Focus should be on efficient building shells, heating, cooling and ventilation systems and the use of low carbon technologies for space and water heating and cooling76. Buildings that are designed to make optimal use of solar energy for lighting as well as space and water heating and cooling, for example, have a great potential for energy savings. A model example of this is the Solar 2 building in New York City, an ambitious community funded project which, once completed, will be a self-sustaining solar powered structure. Solar 2, an education and arts centre, aims to create a 13,000 square feet of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;net-zeroâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; building space; a building with zero annual carbon emission and zero net energy consumption81. Mandatory building energy codes which stipulate minimum energy performance requirements for buildings must be put in place globally to reduce energy consumption. To overcome financial and technical barriers that stand in the way of achieving energy efficiency in homes, buildings and community spaces, incentive schemes should be used wherever appropriate. These incentives could aim to promote low carbon technologies and good practice relevant to: building fabrics; lighting, heating, ventilation and air conditioning; fenestration and water heating.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Case Study: New York City’s CoolRoof Project The CoolRoof initiative encourages owners of buildings within New York City to reduce their cooling costs, energy use and carbon emissions by applying a reflective white coat on building rooftops. A recent National Aeronautic and Space Administration study reported that on the hottest day of 2011 in New York City, a white Roof was 42 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than a regular black roof82. The initiative is an integral part of a bid to reduce New York City's greenhouse gas emission at a rate of 30% before 2030. The CoolRoof initiative aims to83: • Reduce roof temperatures during hot summer days • Reduce internal building temperatures, which can be up to 30% cooler with a cool roof, making buildings more comfortable during hot months • Reduce the Urban Heat Island Effect in New York created by open dark surfaces such as roofs and roads • Reduce carbon emissions and help fight climate change; New York’s carbon footprint reduces by 1 ton of carbon dioxide for every 1000 square feet coated • Improve air quality by reducing power demand, which is typically met by burning fossil fuels • Extend the lifespan of rooftops and Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning equipment by better regulating temperatures

Energy Efficient Appliances According to the International Energy Agency , between 1990 and 2008, appliances accounted for over half of an 11% rise in end use energy consumption in 18 developed countries sampled. The trend was credited to the rapidly increasing use of small personal appliances and electronics such as computers and mobile phones. Energy conservation in buildings is heavily reliant on the use of low and zero carbon space and water heating and cooling technologies as well as utilisation of increasingly energy efficient personal appliances. 76

Policies on labels and minimum energy performance have led to major global improvements in the energy efficiency of equipment and appliances76. The purchase of new equipment and appliances that utilise the latest technology can prove beneficial to cutting energy related costs and emissions. Thus to maximise the energy saving potential of appliances and equipment, policies focused on offering financial incentives for the purchase of key energy efficient equipment with high upfront investment costs such as low and zero carbon space and water heating and cooling systems Non-specified

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Figure 16: Difference in energy end-use in buildings and share of increase in energy consumption between 1990 and 2008. Countries analysed: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States76. Source: Tracking clean energy progress © IEA, 2012.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

are needed. Such incentives should be supported by effective information service schemes that aim to increase awareness and train customers on the installation and use of these new technologies. The use of social media can prove to be highly effective at promoting the use of specific low carbon personal appliances and good practice. Smart Meters and Energy Conservation Next generation electricity meters promise to offer consumers up to date and accurate energy use information with detailed breakdowns on when the energy was consumed and through which appliances and equipment. According to the European Smart Meters Industry Group84, for an electricity meter to be considered smart it has to be capable of: two way communication, remote reading, remote enablement and disablement of supply and supporting advanced payment and tariff options. The use of information generated from the utilisation of smart meters as part of smart grids will change the relationship between customers and energy providers85. It is thought that smart meters will give consumers control over their bills enabling them to change how electricity markets work and reduce the costly generation of electricity during peak periods85. This could potentially allow consumers to benefit from lower power costs. However, new policies will be needed to regulate consumer data so as to protect users from adverse impacts such as the control of conditions of service by suppliers based on consumption trends85. From an energy conservation perspective, smart meters could offer additional user value if they allowed consumers to conveniently effect real time energy saving measures. For instance, the remote activation or inactivation of different network connected domestic

appliances and equipment during off-peak and peak energy use periods respectively. To conveniently do this, intuitive mobile and tablet based applications that receive data pushed through the internet from smart meters that allow users to remotely control a range of compatible networked domestic appliances would be needed. Such applications could also be programmed to prioritise customer’s energy use and execute them by turning on relevant equipment over cheap off-peak periods during the day or based on real time energy prices. An additional use of such a system would be to promote behaviour change through the sharing of energy saving data with close like-minded connections over appropriate social media sites. Through the setting of energy saving goals, individuals and groups can keep tabs on their energy use as well as compare each other’s energy saving trends. In distributed power systems, energy providers and manufacturers could use information volunteered by their customers to promote the efficiency of their products within social networks. Providers could also set up energy efficiency reward schemes that reward customers from specific areas that have met targeted energy consumption levels. As the use of smart meters generates large quantities of detailed consumer information, a key limitation would be the collection, storage and use consumer data, particularly when third parties are involved. This could be overcome by the use of both stringent policy and the use of secure and intuitive mobile and tablet application design. Regulatory policy could focus on85: • Data ownership • Access to data • Use of data • Privacy and security of data • Sale or transfer of data

Figure 17: Grid and network connections that would allow consumers to use smart devices to control connected domestic appliances and effectively regulate energy consumption on a next generation smart network89. Adapted from: Focus on smart metering. Consumer Focus, 2011.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Conclusions and Recommendations

Energy 2025: Conclusions The recommendations in Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders underlie the common dream of the Commissioners to live in a secure, efficient and sustainable world. Our recommendations are derived from research in our respective local areas and, most of all, the unparalleled resources that IGGY has provided us with. We believe these recommendations are realistic. However, the issues of climate change and sustainability are evolving at a rapid pace. For now, there are no definite answers to the problems they pose. There are still many unanswered questions, which scientists are trying to resolve. Consequently, some may find our recommendations right, while others may not, as both climate change and sustainability have no single defined right or wrong answer for the problems associated with them. However, this should not intimidate us nor keep us from being visionary. Considering the passion and the single minded devotion of several scientists, diplomats, policy makers and even normal individuals trying to make a difference, the issues of climate change and sustainability do not seem insoluble to us.

Policy makers must make the most of their power to serve the people; investing in areas related to climate change and sustainability will have a long term benefits. As consumers, we must realise that supply measures cannot solve the problem alone. We must become more conscious of the way we use energy. It is necessary that each one of us is conscious of being part of the problem as long as we are part of the solution. Therefore, this issue involves all of us. Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders is a mere pebble in the ocean. But hopefully, it will cause some long lasting ripples.

Energy 2025: Recommendations In an effort to abate the current heavy reliance on fossil fuels and curb energy generation related carbon dioxide emissions thus reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, The Warwick Junior Commission presents the following tabled targets for national and international policy makers with a view to achieving by 2025. The challenge of promoting fuel economy and the adoption of energy efficient measures at a global scale and in all sectors must be met. In addition to promoting sustainable social and economic development in emerging and developing economies, productively engaging consumers and future energy leaders is crucial. The effective exploitation of alternative energy resources is also imperative. The Commission recognises the importance of these global challenges and in turn asks policy makers to take decisive action to meet the following tabled targets by 2025:

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Technology

Target

Considerations

Players involved

Photovoltaic solar - thin 4% of global electricity Installation incentives for film inorganic and organic consumers, technology photovoltaic cells transfer to developing countries, energy storage

Researchers, entrepreneurs, international institutions and private and public institutions that deal with energy policy

Wind power – offshore 7% global energy market Location, energy storage, wind supporting emerging and developing countries, better prediction of wind patterns

Researchers, entrepreneurs international institutions and private and public institutions that deal with energy policy

Geothermal energy – 2% of global electricity enhanced geothermal production systems

International collaboration, research and development of emerging technologies, international technology transfer, environmental monitoring

Environmentalists and geologists, researchers and public and private institutions that deal with energy policy

Liquid biofuels – third 15% of transport fuels generation biofuels

Relentless research and development of algae biofuels, pilot scale and commercial scale studies of algae bio-refineries, meeting mandates and biofuel targets, monitoring environmental and social impact

Researchers, environmentalists, entrepreneurs and private and public institutions that deal with energy policy

Hydropower – expanding 23% global technical exploitable resources potential

Medium and small category hydropower stations with reduced environmental impact, supporting developing countries, international technology transfer

Private and public institutions that deal with energy policy, entrepreneurs and environmental bodies

Nuclear power Tougher directives on Charging a premium for handling nuclear material use of nuclear power, and running nuclear handling of nuclear stations disasters

International energy bodies, private and public institutions that deal with energy policy, international community and energy firms.

Table 8: Energy 2025 challenges aiming to abate the heavy reliance on fossil fuels and curb energy related carbon dioxide emissions.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Action

Target

Considerations

Players involved

Establishing an International discussion International Carbon on a roll out schedule Tax based on a realistic blueprint obtained through consensus

Fair play, international collaboration, leapfrogging and prioritising sustainable development in developing countries and mitigating impact of climate change

International policy institutions, private and public institutions that deal with energy policy, international community and financial institutions

Developing international Initiation of concept distributed power system demonstration networks based on renewable resources and low carbon technologies

Holistic approach to energy generation, efficient generation and transmission of electricity, international collaboration, energy storage, overcoming political, financial, social and resource barriers

International community, private and public institutions that deal with energy policy, environmental bodies, researchers and financial institutions

Prioritising the provision Bundling information of information services services with all appropriate customer focussed financial and non-financial incentives

Location of brick and mortar service points, monitoring performance, spreading related pro- environmental and sustainability messages

Private and public institutions, entrepreneurs, general public, energy firms

Reaching out to young people internationally through social media

At least three social media Functionality and scope, sites that discuss and content, implications share pro-environmental of functions content and are linked to influential youth and organisations

Entrepreneurs, financial institutions, higher learning institutions, international organisations, education sector and international youth community

Energy efficiency in transport

Establishment of International collaboration, International fuel economy financial support standards, 45% reduction in new car energy intensity based on 2005 levels, Hybrid cars making up 4% of global fleet

Vehicle manufacturers, researchers, international organisations, researchers, public and private institutions that deal with energy policy and international community

Energy efficiency in industry

Global commercialisation Monitoring environmental of carbon capture and and social impact, lowering storage, use of microalgae cost of technology, to sequester industrial incentivise industry carbon dioxide emissions to use alternative fuels in adjunct bio-refineries

Researchers, entrepreneurs, public and private institutions that deal with energy policy and environmental institutions

Promoting energy demand Reduce commercial and management domestic building energy consumption to 25% of global energy use

Global enactment of mandatory building energy codes, incentivise the use of energy efficient appliances, retrofit old buildings, allow consumers to remotely control smart appliances and protect consumer rights

Entrepreneurs, public and private institutions, international institutions, energy firms and international community

Table 9: Energy 2025 challenges aimed at increasing global energy efficiency, fuel economy and promoting sustainable development.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Appendices

I. References II. Acknowledgments Ill. Meet the Commissioners lV. Members of the Advisory Panel V. Production and Editorial Credits

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

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Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

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Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Plan. Toronto: IndEco Inc. http://indeco.com/www.nsf/6 02920ce130253a08525764e007a6418/bd8f04b2b3d cbd4c85256cbe001207fe/$FILE/Milton_Hydro_DSM_ Plan_2003.pdf. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 79. Sarkar, Ashok & Singh, Jas, (2010). Financing energy efficiency in developing countries--lessons learned and remaining challenges. Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5560-5571, October. 80. Bradbury, D. (2010). Volatile energy prices demand new form of management. BusinessGreen. Association of Online Publishers. http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/ analysis/1804282/volatile-energy-prices-demand-formmanagement. Accessed: 18 March 2012. 81. Solar 1: Green energy, Arts and Education Centre - Solar 2 building. http://www.solar1.org/programs/solar-2building/about-solar2/. Accessed: 18 March 2012. 82. Lynch Patrick (2012). Bright Is The New Black: New York Roofs Go Cool. NASA; News and Features – Earth, 7 March 2012. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/ ny-roofs. html. Accessed: 18 March 2012. 83. NYC CoolRoofs (2012). About NYC Cool Roofs. CoolRoofs, New York. http://www.nyc.gov/html/coolroofs/ html/about/about.shtml. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 84. European Smart Metering Industry Group; Smart Metering Technologies. ESMIG, Belgium. http://www. esmig. eu/smart-metering. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 85. Heffner Greyson (2011). Smart Grid – Smart customer policy needs; An IEA paper submitted to the energy efficiency working party. IEA, April 2011. http://www.iea. org/ papers/2011/sg_cust_pol.pdf. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 86. United Nations Environmental Programme (2010). Green Economy: Developing Countries Success Stories. http://www.unep.org/pdf/GreenEconomy_ SuccessStories. pdf. Accessed on 3 June 2012. 87. United Nations Development Programme (2005). Sustainable energy Strategies: Materials for Decision Makers. Chapter 4, page 3-4. UNDP, Sustainable Energy. http://www.undp.org/content/dam/aplaws/publication/ en/publications/environment-energy/www-ee-library/ sustainable-energy/sustainable-energy-strategiesmaterials-for-decision-makers/SE_Strategies.pdf. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 88. Lebed Sergei (2005). IPS//UPS Overview. Brussels: UCTE-IPSUPS Study presentation. http://www. bsecenergy. ro/prezentari/Energy%20Policies%20 and%20Strategies/ Sergey%20Kouzmin/IPSUPS-UCTE. pdf. Accessed: 27 May 2012. 89. Consumer Focus (2011). Focus on smart metering, January 2011. Consumerfocus.org. http://www. consumerfocus.org.uk/ files/2011/04/Focus-On-SmartMetering.pdf. Accessed: 27 May 2012.

Acknowledgements In addition to members of the Advisory Council, the Warwick Junior Commission would like to thank: Al Benninghoff White Roof Project Victoria Edmiston NYC Buildings Graeme Roberts IGGY Mentor Jeremy Teperman Science Barge Alisa Berger NYC iSchool Laurie J. Schoeman Manuela Zamora The Sun Works Centre Sarah Pidgeon Joe Chavez Solar One Dr George B. Assaf UNIDO Prof Adam Braunshweig Dr. Zhong Lee NYU Mike Ahearne Birmingham Science City/ The University of Warwick Rob O'Toole The University of Warwick Steven Goldfinch UNISDR Stephen Gitonga UNDP Baroness Amos UN Under-Secretary-General Jo Thomas Iggy Karen Ramsay-Smith IGGY Caroline Peck Iggy

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Meet the Commissioners

Gurrein

am Gurrein Kaur Madan from Amritsar â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a small town in North Western India. My willingness to explore new places, meet new people and constantly challenge myself stems from the limited opportunities available in my town. I am fascinated by science and how it elegantly explains the complex phenomenon we observe in real life. I thoroughly enjoy studying neuroscience, genetics, the string theory and solving trigonometry problems. My other interests include playing the violin and running. Being a Junior Commissioner has given me valuable skills and IGGY has made it possible for me to participate in intellectually stimulating discussions with leading academics, interact with United Nations officials and contribute to conversations with professors about their research. Seeing so many people passionately devoted to make a change has made me more optimistic about being able to meet the energy challenges we face as a world issue. In addition to this, collaboration with the other Junior Commissioners helped to mould my perspective about energy challenges into a more global outlook. The Junior Commission has been one of the best experiences of my life â&#x20AC;&#x201C; it has brought the best out of me by challenging me and has given me the confidence and a platform to truly make a difference.

Kitty

eing chosen by IGGY to participate in the Junior Commission was a very exciting prospect through which I have been challenged intellectually and personally. I have learnt a lot from the other Junior Commissioners through the process of collaborating on our project where we were able to work as a team and shared our perspectives, knowledge and experience. Coming from different countries, we shared our opinions, developing mutual understanding and empathy with one another. The visit to the United Nations, which involved us being introduced to the responsibilities and duties of each department associated with solving the climate crisis, was eye-opening. Overall, being an IGGY member and taking part in the Junior Commission has been a truly rewarding experience. It really has opened me up to a whole new world allowing me to explore the different viewpoints towards a common global issue.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Jarel

am a student in Hwa Chong Institution, Singapore. I was very excited to be given the opportunity to become a Junior Commissioner and act as a member of the international community to tackle the issue of Climate Change. The same applies for many other issues in today’s globalised world, which made the candid interaction between the Commissioners of various nationalities particularly precious to me. Visiting various organisations in New York and seeing the conviction of their staff made me realise the important role civil society can play in environmental activism, especially in Singapore, where the extended presence of our highly efficient government in many issues has led to complacency from citizens. In Warwick and at the PUP conference, where we witnessed the extensive work researchers had done on proposing mitigating measures to climate change, I was filled with new hope for our climate’s future. My involvement with the Junior Commission has inspired me to organise various environment-based community projects. I am now also in my school’s Green Council, promoting the environmental cause. I am extremely grateful to IGGY and its generous sponsors for making this wonderful learning experience possible for me!

Ben

am a student at Scots College, New Zealand who is looking forward to leaving his mark on the world. I am studying Geography, History and French at Higher Level, along with Biology, Maths and English. I coach softball, play piano, debate, run Model UNs and co-ordinate a community advocacy group called WMYP. In three words, my life revolves around service, science and politics. My passion lies in fostering youth involvement in global issues. The Warwick Junior Commission has given me a chance to extend my interest in the fields of energy usage and climate change, meeting some of the world’s top academics, researchers and leaders. All this has been in the company of some incredible people – and I have the other Junior Commissioners and the entire IGGY team to thank for making this experience both enriching and enjoyable. I look forward to following the impact of our report as it is published and shared with the world, while also maintaining my desire to help build a cleaner and greener world for the future.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Elliam

Bakht

am a self-motivated individual who likes learning new things, meeting new people and solving problems. Determination and hard work are my top personal values. People usually view me as a sceptic but I prefer to listen to reason. I usually like helping people and making them smile is at the top of my agenda.

iving in a nation riddled by civil strife, an ideological war and burdened by corruption firmly established my interest in politics. Student government, debating, reading and public speaking opened the controversial yet interesting world of politics to me. What started as an interest soon turned into a passion.

I enjoy basketball. I also enjoy maths and science and have been participating in the annual Botswana Maths and Science Fair for five years. The belief that human beings are not just pawns of the natural environment truly entices me.

Selection for the International Gateway for Gifted Youth was an attestation of my capabilities and outlook. Attending the 'Global Leaders' course at the University of Warwick changed how I approached the world. Cultivation of friendships from Canada to Brunei while living, working and co-operating in a truly diverse environment for the brightest of the world served as a pivotal point in my life. The confidence and friendships I cultivated will remain with me for a lifetime, helping me at every stage of my career.

Prior to joining the Junior Commission, I was keen to find out more about the adverse effects that energy consumption has on our planet. The research that we carried out into the topic of climate change really opened my eyes to what was happening around us. I was very fortunate to meet nine extremely gifted individuals who could offer a broad perspective on this global issue and I was intrigued to learn more. I take pride in being an IGGY member and having been part of the diverse and gifted group that has been responsible for producing this report and making a difference to the Worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future energy consumption.

Researching Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow's Leaders for the Commission has been a blend of diversity, academic excellence and team work. Working alongside the most talented youth of the world and some of the most brilliant academicians, has become one of the most important and interesting endeavours I have ever undertaken. Along my path to working for the Foreign Services of my nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s government, I found IGGY and its Junior Commission. It has been an experience that has not only enabled me to put my knowledge and understanding to the test, but also expand my horizons of learning. The Warwick Junior Commission will always be remembered and the friendships it fostered cherished for a life time. I hope our report makes a difference around the world.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrow’s Leaders

Nirali

am studying Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics and Further Mathematics for A Level and I hope to study Engineering at university. I can speak English, Hindi and Gujarati fluently as well as a little French and Spanish. My interests include reading, public speaking and playing the piano. Being an IGGY member and chosen to participate in the Junior Commission has provided a platform to voice my views about energy use and the future of the planet. This research project has involved meetings with various people involved in the energy sector in roles ranging from policy making to scientific research. These meetings have resulted in a report where a holistic approach has been taken regarding climate change and its effects on both the planet and the population. As a Junior Commissioner I have had the privilege of working with an international group of diverse individuals. I always believed that I would learn a great deal from the other Junior Commissioners and this has indeed been proved true. Our discussions have allowed me to analyse and adapt my own ideas and opinions in order to adopt a global perspective. I hope to go on and use the skills gained from the Junior Commission to continue to target some of the problems facing the world.

Massimo

y name is Massimo Innamorati, I was born in Luxemburg, grew up in Rome, and currently live in the UK. I am studying Linguistics at Lancaster University and languages are my passion. I am also particularly interested in human rights and politics. I have had the opportunity to be involved in groups such as Amnesty International and other associations both in the UK and in Rome. It is very rewarding to organise events, raise awareness and funds and in general to be ‘part of the solution’. Being a member of IGGY has allowed me to do exactly that. As a Junior Commissioner, I feel part of the solution to a problem that is bigger than us – energy sustainability. It was incredible to hear so many different perspectives and be exposed to great ideas from lecturers, specialists and simple individuals, both in New York and at Warwick University.

Report of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12

Tommy

y experience as a Junior Commissioner has been a valuable, authentic and enriching one. As a keen student towards problems that are plaguing the world, the topic of Energy 2025 could not have concurred less with my interests. Being able to evaluate energy and sustainability problems in the UK has provided me with the experience of a lifetime, witnessing first hand some of the highest domestic institutional players that I aspire to make an impact on. These amazing experiences, along with the friendships Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve made, have given me great memories that have truly inspired me. Being part of this global project has allowed me to look at the wider picture of things, and that experience will now always influence me. It has enhanced some of my life skills and certainly improved my teamwork. I hope that our recommendations in this report will be taken on board and that the policy makers, energy organisations and government will understand our concerns and instigate significant solutions towards the topic of energy.

Dudu

y name is Tlhompho Ditedu and I am a fourteen-year-old girl from Botswana in Southern Africa. Since becoming a Junior Commissioner a lot of changes have occurred in the way I think and perceive the world. I take from IGGY, an improved mind set on global issues and how to tackle them along with an enriched knowledge of issues affecting the world today. The Junior Commission has provided me with knowledge and experiences that I could never have acquired anywhere else. It has given me lots of new skills, especially critical thinking on a global scale. It is not every day that young people are given the opportunity to speak their mind and share their ideas with likeminded people while also being exposed to different cultures and viewpoints. Being a member of the Junior Commission meant that I was given the opportunity to visit New York City where we met leading experts in the energy sector, including in United Nations departments and agencies. Being a member of IGGY and the Warwick Junior Commission has honestly left a lasting impact on my life.

Energy 2025: Challenging Tomorrowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Leaders

Members of the Advisory Panel Members of the Warwick Junior Commission 2011/2012 Advisory Panel David Elmes (Chairman) Academic Director, The Warwick Global Energy MBA and Senior Teaching Fellow, Warwick Business School Joel Cardinal Energy Manager, Estates Office, University of Warwick Margot Finn Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Access, Widening Participation and Development Professor, Department of History, University of Warwick Kerry Kirwan Associate Professor, Warwick Manufacturing Group, University of Warwick Alexei Lapkin Professor, School Of Engineering, University of Warwick Tim Jones Pro-Vice Chancellor, Knowledge Transfer and Business Engagement Professor, Department of Chemistry, University of Warwick Edgar Wavomba Teaching Laboratory Assistant, Department of Chemistry, University of Warwick Assistant Editor, Final Report, IGGY Dave Wood Academic Leader, IGGY Director of Undergraduate Studies, Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick

For more information about this report, or The Warwick Junior Commission in general, please write to: IGGY Senate House The University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL, UK w

www.warwick.ac.uk/iggy #juniorcommission f www.facebook.com/iggyonline t

Project Director & Report Editor Kevin Johnson Urban Communications Limited Associate Editor Edgar Wavomba The University of Warwick

First published in August 2012 by The University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 8UW, UK ÂŠ The University of Warwick Warwick Junior Commission 2011/12 Printed on paper derived from sustainably managed forests. Design by Mustard: www.mustardhot.com