Table 5 Effect of Assistance by URUGUAY XXI on the Probability of Entering a New Country Market Selection Y0 Variables Coefficient Marginal Effect Coefficient Marginal Effect 0.027362 0.000924 -0.005005 -0.001994 Lagged Total Exports (0.024374) (0.000716) (0.009016) (0.003363) 0.282366*** 0.00953*** 0.460960*** 0.183478*** Lagged Number of Countries (0.063297) (0.00204) (0.032496) (0.011836) -0.056429 -0.001902 -0.020313 -0.008073 Lagged Number of Products (0.048949) (0.001551) (0.020428) (0.007874) 0.792450*** 0.061042*** 0.222813* 0.088747* Lagged Assistance (0.142164) (0.017041) (0.121712) (0.047354) 0.023195 0.000783 -0.317555*** -0.126387*** Lagged Share of MERCOSUR (0.090095) (0.003143) (0.038498) (0.014205) -0.106676 -0.003601 0.007720 0.00307 Lagged Share of Differentiated Products (0.087966) (0.002793) (0.038387) (0.0140) 5.482187*** 0.185145*** Sector Targeting (0.367385) (0.017724) Assistance Effect on Assisted Firms
Y1 Coefficient -0.084199* (0.049597) 0.476546*** (0.168446) -0.044709 (0.115795) -0.043582 (0.289835) 0.504632** (0.239116) -0.419356* (0.222297)
Marginal Effect -0.019236 (0.03835) 0.109125*** (0.01310) -0.010238 (0.029345) -0.010268 (0.071323) 0.115423** (0.05843) -0.095636 (0.03246)
0.401** (0.166)
Source: Own elaboration on data provided by URUGUAY XXI. The table presents the parameters of the selection equation, the export outcome equation for non-assisted firms, and the export outcome equation for assisted firms, based on the latent variable, discrete choice model with unobserved heterogeneity outlined in Section 2. Covariates are: lagged (natural logarithm of) total exports, lagged (natural logarithm of) number of countries firm exports to, lagged (natural logarithm of) number of products exported, lagged assistance status, lagged share of MERCOSUR in the firms’ total exports, lagged share of differentiated products in the firms’ total exports, sectoral targeting as measured by the share of assisted firms averaged over the sectors in which the firm is an active exporter, and year fixed-effects (not reported). Standard errors clustered by firms are shown below these estimated parameters. The last row of the table reports the implied assistance effect on the probability of entering a new country market. In this case, standard errors are bootstrapped based on 500 replications. * significant at the 10% level; ** significant at the 5% level; *** significant at the 1% level.
38