We further assume that low-, moderate-, and high-hazard areas of Figure 6A account for 40%, 40%, and 20% of Canada’s WUI population (60% of the nation’s population of 38 million people and 15 million households). Table 41 presents an estimate of total national costs and benefits, on a provisional order-of-magnitude basis. Figures are rounded to reduce the appearance of excessive accuracy. Tax savings are already included in the total monetary benefit and are not double counted but are shown separately as well. Again, Figure 19 shows that 75% to 80% of the benefits are monetary, and the rest is associated with life safety. Table 41. Long-term national benefits and costs of the National WUI Guide High hazard
Moderate hazard
Low hazard
National (a)
Households in WUI (million)
0.9
1.8
1.8
4.5
Household cost ($ million)
$10,000
$20,000
$18,000
$48,000
Municipal and utility cost ($ million)
$15,000
$31,000
$31,000
$77,000
Benefit ($ million)
$360,000
$103,000
$5,000
$470,000
Benefit-cost ratio
14
2
0.1
4
Avoided deaths
1,800
500
20
2,300
Avoided injuries
6,600
1,900
80
8,600
Avoided PTSD cases
6,600
1,900
80
8,600
Construction jobs
4,100
8,300
6,900
19,000
GST savings ($ million)
$300
$80
$4
$380
HST savings ($ million)
$500
$150
$8
$660
(a) Totals are rounded to reduce appearance of excessive accuracy.
Importantly, benefits and, therefore, benefit-cost ratios vary in direct proportion to burn rates. It would be practical to calculate burn rates by community and thereby improve the estimates of national benefit. 4.8 Climate change and demand surge The foregoing analyses all account for climate change using the procedures proposed in Section 3.14. The long-term increase in fire frequency suggests that climate change will produce a 42% increase in losses, and, therefore, in benefits and the benefit-cost ratio, relative to a stationary 2010 climate. As previously noted, the project team adds 10% to account for demand surge. Together, these two factors increase losses and, therefore, benefits and benefit-cost ratio by slightly more than 50%.
85