IBCNews - February-March - 2015

‫سال شانزدهم‪ ،‬شماره ششم‪ ،‬اسفند و فروردین‪۹۴-۹۳‬‬

‫‪16th Year, No.6, FEB & MAR , 2015‬‬

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Mofid securities

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America is now NO.2

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Investment management business

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Iran sweetens oil contracts counter sanction, price plunge

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Daily not to do List of successful people

39

A trouble start to the year

40

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NAME OF BOARD OF DIRECTOY

16th Year

NEWLY ELECTED BOARD OF DIRECTOR OF IRANIAN BUSINESS COUNCIL AT GENERAL ASSEMBLY HELD ON 07/03/2015 :

Issue 06 February & March 2015

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Issue 06 February & March 2015

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16th Year

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Issue 06 February & March 2015

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16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

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16th Year

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Iran's Giant Car Maker SAIPA to Expand Exports to Iraq Fars- CEO of Iran's Saipa automanufacturing company Saeed Madani voiced satisfaction in the growing trend of export of his company's high-standard products to Iraq, and said the company is to offer three new models of cars to the neighboring country's market.

Speaking to reporters in Baghdad on Saturday, Madani said that Iraq is one of the most strategic markets for his company. He further underline that his company has ambitious plans to increase the variety of its productions and increase its share in the Iraqi market. “Saipa's products are always highly received in Iraq thanks to their competitive prices, cheap spare parts and low fuel consumption,� Madani said. In September, Saipa announced that a new generation of its vehicles has passed technical inspection tests in the Czech Republic successfully. Saipa Public Relations Department made the announcement on its website, adding the company has made some changes in designing and engineering of engines of the new generation of its cars so that they are compatible with euro-4 environmental standards. According to Saipa Public Relations Department, “the new products are equipped with euro-4 environmental standards. These cars have managed to put behind technical inspection tests in Czech

Fars- Iran plans to considerably increase its petrochemical production by the end of the current Iranian year (March 20, 2015) hitting a new record of 43mln tons, an official at the National Iranian Petrochemical Company (NIPC) announced. Ali Mohammad Bosaqzadeh said Iran has produced nearly 40 million tons of petrochemicals since last March, adding that the figure is expected to reach 43 million tons this March.

Iran produced 40 million tons of petrochemicals in the last calendar year, with $9bln worth of its products being exported. The country plans to increase its petrochemical exports to $12bln this year.

Iran has over 930 tourism projects underway IRNA- More than 930 tourism projects are currently underway across Iran, the head of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization said on Monday. Masoud Soltanifar said the projects are under construction with as much as 200 trillion rials of finance. Speaking in a ceremony to inaugurate the first group of international four- and fivestar airport hotels of Iran, Soltanifar said that the projects underway by the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization shows 50% of physical growth on average.

Appreciating the efforts made by the Cultural Heritage Organization and Tourism Bank to implement projects compatible with international standards, Soltanifar said that Iranian have proved that they can reach their big goal despite tough sanctions and restrictions on national resources.

Iran divests state shares worth over $1.12b in 330 days

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Iran's Petrochemical Output to Exceed 43mln Tons by Yearend

38.471 trillion rials (about $1.127 billion) worth of shares of staterun companies to the private sector since the beginning of current Iranian calendar year (March 21, 2014) until February 13, 2015, the Mehr News Agency reported on Sunday. In May 2014, Iran Privatization Organization Director Abdollah Pouri Hosseini said the country would privatize 186 staterun companies in Iranian calendar year 1393 (March 2014-March 2015).

He said that the companies consist of 27 huge companies, 76 large companies, 31 medium companies, and 31 companies of other sizes. The government has envisioned a large privatization program in the Fifth FiveYear Development Plan (2010-2015), aiming to privatize about 20 percent of state-owned firms each year.

Under the present interpretation of the Article 44 of Iran's Constitution, hundreds of state-owned companies have been privatized.

16th Year

Republic and acquire the necessary confirmations.� Getting European quality licenses for Saipa’s X 100 products is very important and paves the way for exports of the products to different markets

Oil refineries back at TSE IRNA- Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh says a number of oil refineries will resume their presence at Tehran Stock Exchange in a near future. The decision has been made after some agreements reached on improving the performance of oil refiner y and approval of new regulations. Last month, the cabinet approved regulations proposed by the capital market’s Stability Committee on improving the quality of oil products which gives oil refineries a five year time to upgrade the quality of their products including gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel. Under the regulations, oil refineries should improve the quality of their products based on new specifications announced by the Oil Ministr y, he said in a Shana report. Oil refineries also should set aside 30 percent of their annual profits for improving the quality of the products they offer. Head of the Security and Exchange Organization (SEO) Mohammad Fetanat announced recently that six oil refineries have star ted upgrading with satisfactor y progress, including Tehran oil refiner y.

TehranTimes- Iran has transferred info@ibc.ae www.ibc.ae

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gradually, Iran's largest carmaker, Iran-Khodro Company (IKCO) said.

Recalling the formation of quality improvement council a year ago, Abbas Maleki Tehrani, IKCO senior vicepresident said, "We have put quality improvement high on our agenda."

"IKCO is also determined to fully back aftermarket service for every new car and with this perspective IKCO Dena has hit the market with a special support in aftermarket service network," he added. According to IKCO senior vicepresident all quality issues have been studied and pointed out, the company's quality infrastructure has been changed and the instruction for supervising IKCO part makers has been reviewed.

"We have run a new system to supervise part makers' performance, which is expected to boost the quality of the parts," Maleki Tehrani said and added, "Globalization demands high quality and we have a long way to go in this respect."

16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Economy

the comprehensive plan, Iran’s steel production capacity will expand by 11.6 million tons per year

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Iran’s steel outputs rise, World Steel Association says ISNA- World Steel Association (WSA) said Iran’s raw steel output in January totaled 1.4 million tons, rising by 19.7 percent comparing to similar period last year. Iran’s raw steel output in January totaled 1.36 million tons.

Turkey produced 2.58 million tons of steel in January which reduced by 10.4 percent comparing to similar period last year. The world produced 133 million tons of steel in January which lessened by 2.9 and 0.4 percent comparing respectively to January and December. China made 65.5 million tons of steel in January which lessened by 4.7 percent comparing to similar period last year. Early February, Iran announced that it has invested more than two billion dollars in its steel industry as the country plans to build new facilities to boost steel production capacity. $2.2 billion has been allocated to funding seven new steel projects across the country, Iran's Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh said. Nematzadeh gave assurances that Iran’s steel output will increase and

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predicted that the Islamic Republic will be able to produce 55 million tons of crude steel per year within 10 years. Meanwhile, Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO) unveiled a comprehensive plan aimed at increasing steel production capacity in southern Iran early February. According to IMIDRO, new steel-producing plants will be established in Chabahar, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas port cities. Under the comprehensive plan, Iran’s steel production capacity will expand by 11.6 million tons per year

IPO Offers New Incentives to Private Sector FinancialTribuneThe Iranian Privatization Organization (IPO) has offered new incentives to the private sector for purchasing government assets, IRNA reported on Friday. For “genuine� private sector companies intending to buy state-owned companies’ shares, the installment payment period will be extended by 30 percent while the interest rates will also reduce by certain percentage as per the agreements, head of the IPO, Mirali Pourihosseini said on Friday.

The official reiterated that over the past 18 months (since the Rouhani administration came to office), the privatization process “has taken a new

turn in favor of the genuine private sector,� with 90% of government asset transfers in this period having gone to genuine private sector companies.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (IRIR) has been among the government companies with the highest transfer of assets to the private sector, in line with implementation of Article 44 of the Constitution, according to head of IRIR’s Transit Committee, Mohammad Gharavi; IRNA reported. “IRIR has so far transferred 23,000 freight cars and some 2,000 passenger cars to the private sector firms. Another 700 locomotives are currently being offered to the private sector at highly subsidized rates,� said the official.

Despite the concerns voiced by critics that the transfer of state assets to the semi-governmental sector is a contradiction to Article 44 of the Constitution, the IPO is said to have concentrated its efforts on selling government assets to “real private sector companies.�

Middle-East's Largest Automaker Announces 70% Quality Improvement FarsMore than 400 quality improvement projects, 70% of which have been fulfilled, are defined in IKCO and customers will see the results

Issue 06 February & March 2015 16th Year

Iran’s inflation rate falls to 15.2% TehranTimes- Iranian Management and Planning Organization Director Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht has

announced that the inflation rate for the 11-month period ended on the last day of the eleventh Iranian calendar month of Bahman (February 19) dropped to 15.2 percent from 15.8 percent in the previous month. He put the point-topoint inflation rate at 14.4 percent, the Mehr News Agency reported on Monday. In July 2014, Finance and Economic Affairs Minister Ali Tayyebnia said the Iranian government will implement anti-recession programs until a single-digit inflation rate is achieved. The administration has prepared a comprehensive plan to combat high inflation and bring the national economy out of recession, the IRNA news agency quoted Tayyebnia as saying. In March 2014, Tayyebnia said that the country’s inflation rate would fall below 15 percent in Iranian calendar year 1393 (March 2014-March 2015).

Iran’s steel outputs rise, World Steel Association says ISNA- World Steel Association (WSA) said Iran’s raw steel output in January totaled 1.4 million tons, rising by 19.7 percent comparing to similar period last year. Iran’s raw steel output in January totaled 1.36 million tons.

Turkey produced 2.58 million tons of steel in January which reduced by 10.4 percent comparing to similar period last year. The world produced 133 million tons of steel in January which lessened by 2.9 and 0.4 percent comparing respectively to January and December. China made 65.5 million tons of steel in January which lessened by 4.7 percent comparing to similar period last year. Early February, Iran announced that it has invested more than two billion dollars in its steel industry as the country plans to build new facilities to boost steel production capacity. $2.2 billion has been allocated to funding seven new steel projects across the country, Iran's Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh said. Nematzadeh gave assurances that Iran’s steel output will increase and predicted that the Islamic Republic will be able to produce 55 million tons of crude steel per year within 10 years. Meanwhile, Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO) unveiled a comprehensive plan aimed at increasing steel production capacity in southern Iran early February. According to IMIDRO, new steel-producing plants will be established in Chabahar, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas port cities. Under info@ibc.ae www.ibc.ae

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U.S., Iran positive after nuclear talks, say much left to do Reuters- The United States made some progress in talks with Iran on its nuclear program and managed to "sharpen up some of the tough issues", a senior U.S. official said on Monday, but both sides said much remained to be done. Negotiators from Iran and six major powers agreed to resume talks next Monday at a venue to be decided, the official said, speaking after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif held two-day talks in Geneva.

Zarif told Iran's Fars news agency: "We had serious talks with the P5+1 representatives and especially with the Americans in the past three days ... But still there is a long way to reach a final agreement." As Kerry's plane touched down in Washington later on Monday, a senior State Department official said Kerry and Zarif would meet again next week and details were being worked out.

16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Economy

MOFID SECURITIES IRAN MARKET REPORT MOFID SECURITIES

TSE overall index retreated 1 percent, or 669 points with transaction value of 102 $M and stood at 64051. The daily trading volume was well below averages which is mostly related to the companies suspending from trading due to estimation of next year's EPS. Most of the major industries were red for the week except telecom and investment.

The Chairman of securities and exchange organization (SEO) announced that around 178 TSE companies have released their EPS estimation of the upcoming year so far this month. He also mentioned that 106 companies estimated a larger EPS for next fiscal year, while 71 companies estimated lower EPS in comparison to the recent year.

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In the FX market, USDIRR changed direction and appreciated 1 percent against IRR, reaching 34390 IRR per USD. Azadi gold coin (Domestic gold coin) climbed 1.9 percent this week and stood at 9960 thousand IRR. According to CBI's latest macroeconomic report, the country's inflation rate for the end of the last Persian calendar month (Bahman) was 15.8 percent while the year-on-year inflation rate was announced 16.2 percent. This is while the Statistical Center of Iran also announced the same variables 15.2 and 14.4 percent respectively.

Head of the Security and Exchange Organization (SEO) Mohammad Fetanat announced recently that six oil refineries have started upgrading with satisfactory progress, including Tehran oil refinery. Also in this regards, Oil Minister said during a meeting that a number of oil refineries will resume their presence at Tehran Stock Exchange in a near future.

Vehicles index became red this week, while it recorded the largest value of trades among major industries.

Iran khodro (IKCO), the largest car

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manufacturer of the Middle East declined 2.4 percent, reached 2633 and appeared on the list of market value leaders. The Company announced that they have fulfilled more than 70 percent of quality improvement projects and the customers will see the results soon. Saipa, the second car producer of Iran, followed the leader and also recorded 8 percent drop for the week. The CEO of the company reported during a meeting that his company's high standard products export to Iraq, witnessed a satisfying growing trend lately and he also pointed that the company is going to offer three new models of cars to the neighboring country's market. Zamyad, the producer of pickups, also lost 3.8 percent and became the value leader of the market, even after it predicted higher earnings next year.

Culture and inherit investments, the second top loser of this week, lost 15.9 percent and ended the trading week with sell queue. The company announced that it owns 70 percent of the new hotel which is going to inaugurate soon near Emam Khomeini Airport. The company also announced that this project will not affect the company's EPS this year.

Mobarake steel, the largest producer of steel sheets in the Middle East, dropped 7.4 percent. The company announced 453 IRR as its estimation of next year's EPS, which is 11 percent lower than the current year. Isfahan steel, largest producer of beam and rebar, also lost 5.7 percent for the week and stood at 1534. The World Steel Association (WSA) announced that Iran produced nearly 1.4 million tons of raw steel in January showing 19.7 percent of growth in comparison with the same period last year. They also called Iran the largest steel producer of steel in the Middle East in 2014. Iran national copper industries, was closed due to adjustment of estimated EPS. Navard Aluminum, continued the recent bullish trend, and jumped as much as 51 percent after resuming trades earlier

this week, reaching 7674.

Among the pharmaceuticals, Daroubakhsh, the largest producer of medication, lost 8.4 percent. Rouz darou plunged 22.2 percent, just after resuming trades, and became the top loser of the week. On the other hand, Razak Laboratory showed a good performance this week and gained 3.5 percent for the week.

Amirkabir petrochemicals, a polyethylene producer, jumped 13.9 percent with transaction value of 4.7 $M, while it was mostly bought by institutional investors. Pardis petrochemicals, the largest producer of urea also jumped 2.5 percent for the week. This is while, the major petrochemical holdings such as Khalij Farsand Tamin petrochemicals, lost 1.8 and 4 percent respectively. Most of the petrochemicals appeared red this week.

Saderat bank, rose 0.6 percent and stood at 723. According to the banks latest reports, Saderat has pledged to finance three major projects, which are Siraf Energy, Sabalan Petrochem, and South Aluminum. The first two projects will collectively receive credits worth $1 billion and $1.5 billion will go to South Aluminum. Ansar bank, Showed the best performance this week and recorded 5.6 percent jump with transaction value of 5.6 $M, reaching 2592. Mellat bank, the largest listed bank, lost 1.3 percent and stood at 1968.

Iran Telecommunication company, advanced 3.3 percent with transaction value of 2 $M. Iran Mobile telecommunications also rose 1.9 percent with 4.7 $M value of trades, reaching 30560.

Mapna, the builder and operator of power plants, changed direction and lost 4.3 percent with 3.8 $M value of trades, which was mostly done by institutional investors.

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16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Economy

IT S OFFICIAL: AMERICA IS NOW NO. 2 CHINESE ECONOMY OVERTAKES THE U.S. S TO BECOME THE LARGEST

16th Year

BRETTARENDS

Hang on to your hats, America.

And throw away that big, fat Styrofoam finger while you’re about it.

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There’s no easy way to say this, so I’ll just say it. We’re no longer No. 1.

Today we’re No. 2. Yes, it’s official. The Chinese economy just overtook the United States economy to become the largest in the world. For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is no longer the leading economic power on the planet.

It just happened — and almost nobody noticed.

The International Monetary Fund recently released the latest numbers for the world economy. And when you measure national economic output in “real� terms of goods and services, China will this year produce $17.6 trillion — compared to $17.4 trillion for the U.S.A. As recently as 2000, we produced nearly three times as much as the Chinese.

To put the numbers slightly differently, China now accounts for 16.5% of the global economy when measured in real purchasing power terms, compared to 16.3% for the U.S. This latest economic earthquake follows the development last year when China surpassed the U.S. for the first time in terms of global trade.

I first reported this looming development over two years ago, but the moment came sooner than I or anyone else had predicted.

China’s recent decision to bring gross

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domestic product calculations in line with international standards has revealed activity that had previously gone uncounted.

These calculations are based on a wellestablished and widely used economic measure known as “purchasing power parity� (or PPP), which measures the actual output as opposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.

So a Starbucks Venti Frappucino served in Beijing counts the same as a Venti Frappucino served in Minneapolis, regardless of what happens to be going on among foreign exchange traders.

Make no mistake. This is a geopolitical earthquake with a high reading on the Richter scale.

PPP is the real way of comparing economies. It is one reported by the IMF and was, for example, the one used

by McKinsey & Co. consultants back in the 1990s when they undertook a study of economic productivity on behalf of the British government.

Yes, when you look at mere international exchange rates the U.S. economy remains bigger than that of China, allegedly by almost 70%. But such measures, although they are widely followed, are largely meaningless.

Does the U.S. economy really shrink if the dollar falls 10% on international currency markets? Does the recent plunge in the yen mean the Japanese economy is vanishing before our eyes?

Back in 2012, when I first reported on these figures, the IMF tried to challenge the importance of PPP. I was not surprised. It is not in anyone’s interest at the IMF that people in the western

world start focusing too much on the sheer extent of China’s power. But the PPP data come from the IMF, not from me. And it is noteworthy that when the IMF’s official World Economic Outlook compares countries by their share of world output, it does so using PPP, not mere exchange rates.

Yes, all statistics are open to various quibbles. It is perfectly possible China’s latest numbers overstate output — or understate them. That may also be true of U.S. GDP figures. But the IMF data are the best we have.

Make no mistake. This is a geopolitical earthquake with a high reading on the Richter scale. Throughout history, political and military power have always depended on economic power.

Britain was the workshop of the world before she ruled the waves. And it was Britain’s relative economic decline that preceded the collapse of her power.

And it was a similar story with previous hegemonic powers such as France and Spain.

This will not change anything tomorrow or next week, but it will change almost everything longer term.

We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. since at least 1945, and in many ways since the late 19th century. And we have lived for 200 years — since the Battle of Waterloo in 1815 — in a world dominated by two reasonably democratic, constitutional countries in Great Britain and the U.S.A. For all their flaws, the two countries have been in the vanguard worldwide in terms of civil liberties, democratic processes, and constitutional rights.

Issue 06 February & March 2015

indication to the job description for each of them.

5. Statement of used technical systems and work procedures proposed to provide the investment management business.

16th Year

6. Receipt of license fees payment.

On the submission of the application the SCA is to approve or reject the application within a period of 30 days from the date of the submission of the complete application i.e. the application form along with all the required documents.

Once the license is granted it is valid for a period of one year which expires at the end of the month of December after which it is to be renewed for another year.

7KH ÀUVW \HDU VKDOO H[SLUH DW WKH end of the month of December of the same year notwithstanding the number of months remaining for the same.

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For the cancellation of the license, the investment manager is to submit an application for the same to the SCA, who shall grant the cancellation after settlement of all pending obligations of the investment manager. Also, the investment manager is to notify the public of such cancellation immediately, at his own expense, by publishing the same in two daily newspapers that is in circulation in the State and one of the two newspapers must be in the Arabic language.

Apart from voluntary cancellation of the license, the license may also be cancelled if the conditions set for the grant of the license are not complied to or if the renewal fees of the license is not paid.

Such cancellation is in the form of a penalty.

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16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Legal

INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT BUSINESS PROCEDURE AND CONDITIONS FOR PROCURING LICENSE Nooshin Rahmannejadi Ref: Panicker Partners "Advocates & Legal Consultants"

Investment Management Business refers WR D EXVLQHVV WKDW XQGHUWDNHV WKH HIĂ€FLHQW management of the securities and assets of another who is the investor in such a way that the investor is able to reap suitable EHQHĂ€WV RXW RI WKH LQYHVWPHQWV 7KH Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) of the United Arab Emirates has drafted the regulations pertaining to the Investment Management Business in the year of 2013 (hereinafter referred to as ‘the law’) and the said regulations are binding on all entities participating in such business.

company itself. The Memorandum of Association of the company must in its ‘Object Clause’ incorporate the purpose of engagement in to the investment management business as one of the objects for initiating the company.

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VLJQHG WKHUHZLWK IRU WKH EHQHÀW RI WKLUG parties or management of mutual funds This condition is not applicable to local $ FROOHFWLYH ÀQDQFLDO YHKLFOH WKDW SRROV banks or branches of foreign banks. money from investors for the purpose of investment against the issuance of investment units of equal value and 3.The obligations of the Applicant that rights) in accordance with the investment arises out of such business are also to objectives and policy set out in the be covered by an unconditional letter of Investment Management Agreement guarantee of the amount of one million signed between the Investment Manager dirhams (AED 10,00,000/-) which is to be (A body corporate licensed to engage in issued by a bank operating in the State in the business of investment management favor of the SCA. in accordance with the provisions hereof) and its clients, including individuals, 4.The license fee that is prescribed by the institutions or mutual funds.

SCA is to be deposited with the SCA. For regulating any business it is essential to keep record of the participants of such business and therefore the SCA provides for the all business entities into the Investment Management to obtain a license from the SCA for the same. For obtaining a license from the SCA for this purpose the Investment Manager of the said business must meet all the below mentioned conditions and an undertaking for meeting the said conditions is also to be given.

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8. An Internal Control System is to be set up which shall ensure that the business is run in compliance with the guidelines, regulations, laws, by-laws, etc. that have been drafted for the regulation of such a business.

9. A separation of the records for the Security Portfolio Management and the Mutual Funds Management is to be maintained and such separation must be submitted to the SCA. 10. The SCA may also provide for additional conditions in the interest of the public that must be complied with.

On complying with the above enlisted conditions the applicant may go ahead with the submission of the application form for the license to the SCA. The application form must be as per the format provided for by the SCA and it must be accompanied by the below enlisted documents:

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Issue 06 February & March 2015

WR KROG RII XQWLO D ÀQDO QXFOHDU deal was penned.

Washington has reiterated it continues to enforce sanctions.

16th Year

Iran and six world powers are trying to meet a self-imposed deadline of the end of June to resolve the nuclear standoff over Iran's nuclear work, which the West fears is aimed at developing a weapons capability - a charge Iran denies, saying it is for peaceful, civilian purposes.

When contacted, a British )RUHLJQ 2IĂ€FH VSRNHVPDQ VDLG the government did not support the London oil conference.

"It would be premature in the absence of a comprehensive nuclear deal," the spokesman said, adding that encouraging trade with Iran "wo uld send the wrong signal".

"The UK government does not encourage trade with Iran. Until we have a nuclear agreement that fully restores international FRQĂ€GHQFH LQ WKH QDWXUH RI Iran's nuclear activity it will be necessary to maintain consistent pressure on Iran through sanctions," he said.

Analysts say Iran is still not open for business.

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0HKGL 9DU]L D IRUPHU RIĂ€FLDO DW the state-run National Iranian Oil Co, said discussions with foreign oil companies had been "on and off for some time", adding that Iran had to offer more attractive incentives to get the ball rolling.

"With the current situation, even if sanctions are lifted, I cannot see many companies going to Iran," said Varzi, who now runs an energy consultancy in Britain, adding that Iran's energy sector would be in deep trouble if market conditions deteriorated further.

"If things get worse, the survival of the Iranian oil and gas industry is at stake."

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16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Economy

IRAN SWEETENS OIL CONTRACTS TO COUNTER SANCTIONS, PRICE PLUNGE Reuters | Ankara/London

Iran is sweetening the terms it offers on oil development contracts to draw the interest of foreign investors deterred by sanctions and low crude prices, as its pragmatic president seeks to deliver on his promise of economic recovery.

A spokesman for Iran's oil ministry declined to comment on the nature of the contracts.

Previously, foreign investors have only been involved in exploration and GHYHORSPHQW RI RLO ÀHOGV 7KH\ RSHUDWHG Tehran is engaged in talks with world under buy-back contracts, whereby they powers about its disputed nuclear ZHUH SDLG D À[HG UDWH RI UHWXUQ DQG GLG SURJUDPPH DV LW WULHV WR VWULNH D ÀQDO not own the assets and were contractors deal to lift the sanctions that have ZLWKRXW ULJKWV WR WKH ÀHOGV halved its oil exports to just over 1 million barrels per day since 2012 and Analysts and industry sources said hammered its economy. companies had failed to cover their costs under this mechanism, which offered no long-term guarantees of income.

To prepare for any agreement, it has already circulated new draft oil contracts The situation has changed, however.

WR IRUHLJQ ÀUPV WR DWWUDFW EXVLQHVV RQFH President Hassan Rouhani, who won WKH UHVWULFWLRQV HQG ,UDQLDQ RLO RIÀFLDOV power in 2013 with pledges to improve and Western diplomatic sources said. the economy, is seeking to end a malaise Such deals would involve helping Iran that has seen prices of food, water and UHYLYH DJLQJ ÀHOGV DQG GHYHORS QHZ electricity rise beyond the reach of many ones, they added.

Iranians as high unemployment and low wages take their toll.

But there is no certainty about the outcome of the nuclear negotiations. Control The contracts offer far more favourable The new oil contracts will allow terms than those offered pre-sanctions investors to be involved in production, as many companies would be hesitant to giving them far greater control and sign even a preliminary deal which US certainty over long-term revenue in a and European governments could regard country where foreign ownership of oil as jumping the gun. resources is banned.

Companies may also require greater SHUVXDVLRQ WR LQYHVW LQ ,UDQLDQ ÀHOGV GXH to low crude prices, which have more than halved since June, and the turbulent relationship Iran has had with foreign ÀUPV LQ WKH SDVW HVSHFLDOO\ DIWHU WKH 1979 Islamic revolution.

"The new contract is more competitive than other oil producers. It provides KLJKHU SRWHQWLDO SURÀWV DQG ORZHU investment risks," said a senior Iranian RLO PLQLVWU\ RIÀFLDO ZKR GHFOLQHG WR be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.The contract offered a favourable rate of return and joint venture options ZLWK ORFDO ,UDQLDQ ÀUPV KH DGGHG

"The Iranian petroleum contracts are more relaxed to encourage major investors ... For example in previous contracts, the commerciality was decided by an Iranian committee but under the new contracts it has been changed in a way to accommodate the IRUHLJQ SDUW\ WKH RLO PLQLVWU\ RIĂ€FLDO said.

completed, they can report output they UHFHLYH DV SD\PHQW WKH RIĂ€FLDO DGGHG Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has met with Western oil executives at recent Opec meetings in Vienna, including Italy's Eni, Royal Dutch Shell and Austrian oil and gas group OMV. Iranian sources declined to identify which companies had seen the draft oil contracts. There has been oil industry speculation that Shell and ConocoPhillips could be among parties to have been courted.

Shell declined to comment.

ConocoPhillips said it acted in full compliance with US law and was "not engaged in business dealings with Iran".

One Western diplomatic source said the interest in oil dialogue with foreign companies was "one-sided and mostly coming from Iran's side".

"Iran is looking a lot less interesting and desirable from the perspective of Western oil companies. There's too much oil on the market so the last thing they want is for Iran to come back online," the source said.

Another Western diplomatic source said: "There are still great doubts on SURÀWDELOLW\ DW WKH PRPHQW JLYHQ WKH ODFN RI GLUHFW DFFHVV WR ÀHOGV LQ ,UDQ ,W is unlikely that any oil company - in the current uncertain environment - would sign even an open contract. It is very much wait and see."

'Wrong signal' The new contracts, which include those $QRWKHU RLO PLQLVWU\ RIĂ€FLDO VDLG 7KH in the upstream - exploration and major incentive for an international development - sectors are expected to oil company (IOC) is the possibility to attract more than $40 billion in foreign book the reserves, something that was investment, Iranian media have recently not possible in the past ... One of the TXRWHG RIĂ€FLDOV DV VD\LQJ terms (on offer) is the long-term joint venture between the IOC and the Iran has postponed a planned oil Iranian operator." conference in London, which was due to The new contracts will offer long-term have taken place in February to reveal GXUDWLRQV RI XS WR \HDUV RLO RIĂ€FLDOV "The investors will have no rights over its new contracts, until November. An say. the reserves but ... after exploration is ,UDQLDQ RIĂ€FLDO VDLG WKH 86 XUJHG 7HKUDQ

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16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

16th Year

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Social

DAILY NOT TO DO LIST OF SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE

Prepared by: Amir. H.Rokhsari, Member of IBC and Editorial Board

If you get decent value from making todo lists, you'll get huge returns — in productivity, in improved relationships, and in personal well-being — from adding these items to your not-to-do list: 1. Wait until you're sure you will succeed.

You can never feel sure you will succeed at something new, but you can always feel sure you are committed to giving something your best.

And you can always feel sure you will try again if you fail.

Stop waiting. You have a lot less to lose than you think, and everything to gain.

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2. Multitask during a meeting.

The easiest way to be the smartest person in the room is to be the person who pays the most attention to the room.

You'll be amazed by what you can learn, both about the topic of the meeting and about the people in the meeting, if you stop multitasking and start paying close DWWHQWLRQ <RX OO Ă XVK RXW DQG XQGHUVWDQG hidden agendas, spot opportunities to EXLOG EULGJHV DQG Ă&#x20AC;QG ZD\V WR PDNH \RX indispensable to the people who matter.

It's easy, because you'll be the only one trying. And you'll be the only one succeeding â&#x20AC;&#x201D; on multiple levels.

3. Check your phone while you're talking to someone.

You've played the "Is that your phone?

Oh, it must be mine" game. You've tried the you-think-sly-but-actually-reallyobvious downward glance. You've done the "Wait, let me answer this text" thing.

Maybe you didn't even say "wait." You just stopped talking, stopped paying attention, and did it.

Want to stand out? (Especially if you're a boss?) Want to be that person everyone

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loves because they make you feel, when they're talking to you, like you're the most important person in the world?

Stop checking your phone. It doesn't notice when you aren't paying attention.

Other people? They notice and they care.

4. Think about people who don't make any difference in your life.

Trust me: The inhabitants of planet Kardashian are OK without you.

But your family, your friends, your employees â&#x20AC;&#x201D; all the people that really matter to you â&#x20AC;&#x201D; are not. Give them your time and attention.They are the ones who deserve it.

5. Let yourself be distracted by QRWLĂ&#x20AC;FDWLRQV You don't need to know the instant you get an email. Or a text. Or a tweet.

Or anything else that pops up on your phone or computer.

If something is important enough for you to do, it's important enough for you to do without interruptions. Focus totally on what you're doing. Then, on a schedule you set â&#x20AC;&#x201D; instead of a schedule you let everyone else set â&#x20AC;&#x201D; play prairie dog and pop your head up to see what's happening.

And then get right back to work.

Focusing on what you are doing is a lot more important than focusing on other people might be doing.

They can wait. You, and what is truly important to you, cannot.

6. Let your past dictate your future.

Mistakes are valuable. Learn from them.

Then let them go.

Easier said than done? It all depends on your perspective. When something goes wrong, turn it into an opportunity

to learn something you didn't know especially about yourself.

When something goes wrong for someone else, turn it into an opportunity to be gracious, forgiving, and understanding.

The past is just training. The past should GHĂ&#x20AC;QLWHO\ LQIRUP EXW LQ QR ZD\ GHĂ&#x20AC;QH you unless you let it.

7. Talk behind someone's back.

If only because being the focus of gossip sucks. (And so do the people who gossip.)

If you've talked to more than one person about something Joe is doing, wouldn't everyone be better off if you stepped up and actually talked to Joe about it? And if it's "not your place" to talk to Joe, it's probably not your place to talk about Joe. Spend your time on productive conversations.You'll get a lot more done â&#x20AC;&#x201D; and you'll gain a lot more respect.

8. Say yes when you really mean no.

Refusing a request from colleagues, customers, and especially friends is really hard.

Yet you can't do everything. You shouldn't do everything. In fact, success is often based more on what you decide not to do than on what you do.

Besides, rarely will saying no go as badly as you expect. Most people understand (and if they don't should you care too much about what they think?)

When you say no to something you don't want to do, at least you only feel bad for a few moments. When you say yes to something you really don't want to do you can feel bad for a long time â&#x20AC;&#x201D; or at least for as long as it takes you to GR ZKDW \RX GLGQ W ZDQW GR LQ WKH Ă&#x20AC;UVW place.

KarimPakravan, Associate Professor DePaul University, Chicago | Jahangera Blog

At the start of the new year, the global economy is buffeted by strong FURVV FXUUHQWV FROODSVLQJ RLO SULFHV WKH WKUHDW RI GHĂ DWLRQ LQ WKH eurozone, a global slowdown and the election of a left-wing antiausterity government in Greece elected on an anti-austerity program.

Add to this the political fallout from the Charlie Hebdo massacre, Boko Haram and Daesh, we are in for considerable volatility.

GDQJHU RI D GHĂ DWLRQDU\ UHFHVVLRQDU\ F\FOH LQ WKH HXUR]RQH 7KH eurozone is still mired in slow growth, with all the major countries (with the exception of Germany) struggling at the edge of recession.

However, unresolved differences between Germany and other Northern European countries on one hand, France, Italy, Spain and Greece on the other about austerity policies leave monetary policy as the only potential policy instrument. Germany, the main proponent of austerity, reluctantly agreed to QE, on the condition that national central banks bear most of the risk of default. The major impact of QE so far has been to weaken the euro back to its level at its inception, which provides a boost to exporters. However, LQ WKH PHGLXP WHUP D PL[ RI VWUXFWXUDO UHIRUPV DQG Ă&#x20AC;VFDO VWLPXOXV will be needed to buttress growth.

16th Year

A TROUBLED START TO THE YEAR

Issue 06 February & March 2015

Economy

Fig. 1: A Lowering of Expectations

Oil Price Collapse: Oil prices are down by 56% to around $45/ bbl (Brent) since their 2014 high in July, with both Brent and WTI DW WKHLU ORZHVW LQ Ă&#x20AC;YH \HDUV :HDN JOREDO PDFURHFRQRPLFV VKDUSO\ higher unconventional oil supplies and a refusal by Saudi Arabia to curtail production contributed to an excess supply situation last year.

According to the IEA, the market will remain oversupplied in 2015, which should keep oil prices low. The collapse in oil prices will lead to a transfer of $1.5-2.5 trillion from oil producers to oil consumers. The decline in oil prices continues, and some analysts believe that oil could bottom out at $30/bbl before rebounding. Furthermore, the falling oil prices are just part of a global weakness in commodity markets. :KLOH RYHUDOO ORZHU RLO SULFHV DUH D VLJQLĂ&#x20AC;FDQWO\ SRVLWLYH IDFWRU IRU WKH ZRUOG HFRQRP\ WKH\ KDYH DOVR FRQWULEXWHG WR VLJQLĂ&#x20AC;FDQW Ă&#x20AC;QDQFLDO market volatility. Moreover, an extended period of low oil prices will have profound geopolitical consequences, from the Persian Gulf to Latin America. Winners include the United States and Europe and the major emerging market oil importing countries (in particular China and India). Obvious losers are the OPEC countries and Russia, but also energy/commodity exporters such as Canada and Australia.

Fig.2: Oil Prices Collapse Those Greeks! The Greek elections have up-ended the European political and economic order. The so-called â&#x20AC;&#x153; troikaâ&#x20AC;? (the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF) has sternly warned Greece that it needs to stick to its austerity path if it wants to continue getting (8 Ă&#x20AC;QDQFLDO VXSSRUW +RZHYHU ERWK SROLWLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF UHDOLWLHV dictate otherwise. First of all, is irrational is to believe that Greece FDQ HVFDSH IURP LWV GHEW DQG UHFHVVLRQ VSLUDO ZLWKRXW VLJQLĂ&#x20AC;FDQW debt relief. Currently, Greece is paying the equivalent of 5% of GDP, or 10% of government revenue, in interest costs alone. The countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sovereign is one of the highest in the world. Thus, a Greek program should involve debt relief (similar to the 1990s Brady Plan) DQG D FRPPLWPHQW RI VLJQLĂ&#x20AC;FDQW (8 ,0) IXQGV LQ H[FKDQJH IRU D credible commitment to structural reform program by the new Syriza government. At the same time, it would seem that both the (8 DQG *UHHFH ZRXOG EHQHĂ&#x20AC;W IURP DQ HYHQWXDO *UHHN H[LW IURP the euro. To insist on continuing on the current course and/or to SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO IXQGV ZLWKRXW D VLJQLĂ&#x20AC;FDQW GHJUHH RI GHEW UHOLHI is simply repeating the same policy, throwing good money after bad, and expecting different results.

Quantitative Easing, European-Style: The European Central Bank (ECB) decision to launch unconventional monetary policies (aka The continued chaos in Syria, Libya and Iraq (and the Middle East in Quantitative Easing, QE) at the rate of â&#x201A;Ź60 billion per monthâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;for general) and the recent terrorist attacks in Europe and Africa only D WRWDO RI ½ WULOOLRQ UHĂ HFWV FRQFHUQV RI SROLF\PDNHUV DERXW WKH add to the background noise in a highly volatile and uncertain period. info@ibc.ae www.ibc.ae

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Both the IMF and the World Bank struck a pessimistic tone in their recent downward revisions to their medium-term forecasts. The IMF cut its 2015 global growth forecast by 0.3%, to 3.3%. With the exception of the United States, growth in all of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s regions was downgraded.

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16th Year, No.6, February & March , 2015

Just as a new bloom spreads Fragrance and freshness aroundâ&#x20AC;Ś.

May the new year add a new beauty And freshness into your life Happy Persian new year