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THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK

October 2016

Results

WEB REPORT

the other hand existing office rentals in October and July show higher economic loss due to new vacancies compared to the rent coming in from new contracts. To summarize, the economic vacancy level is affected both by positive and negative factors.

• Economic vacancy decrease in all quarters 2016 • Office vacancy has decreased compared to last quarter

Thus, overall economic vacancy for office is decreasing but for existing office rentals there is still a need for further economic growth and increase in demand. If the economic growth does not show, we might see more conversions of existing offices leases.

• Further decrease in economic vacancy for office in Copenhagen CBD • Low residential vacancy

The economic vacancy for retail has a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the economic vacancy for industry is unchanged compared to last quarter. The vacancy for residential is low, showing an economic vacancy of 2.9 percent. There is a small increase for residential of 0.1 percentage points compared to last quarter.

Lower economic vacancy for investment properties

Spatial vacancy is also decreasing

Despite a low economic growth in Denmark the investment activity in Danish property is relatively good. It is encouraging that the economic vacancy is at a low level of 9.1 percent. A vacancy low comparison will have to be found in 2011. In 2007 before the financial crisis the economic vacancy was 4 percent, and thus the room for the economic vacancy to decrease further persists. Office economic vacancy has decreased by 0.3 percentage points to an economic vacancy rate of 12.3 percent. Over the last three years the economic vacancy has been stable at a level of 12-13 percent. The decrease of 0.3 percentage points for office has a variety of reasons. The average actual rent for present rentals increase, vacancy rent has decreased slightly, while vacant office rentals are converted to other purposes, mainly residential. On

In October 2016, the spatial vacancy rate for investment properties is 9.8 percent. This is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to July. The spatial vacancy rate decreases both for office, retail and industry while there is a small increase in residential vacancy. The industry spatial vacancy rate of 11.9 percent represents a 6.0 percentage point decrease compared to January 2014, a major decrease, which might continue. This means, that measuring spatial vacancy, it is office with 13.9 percent that has the highest spatial vacancy and this is probably one of the reasons why a large amount of office space rentals is converted into e.g. residential space these years.

Table 1. Vacancy rates in October 2016

Economic vacancy rate

Office Retail Industry

Space vacancy rate

Vacancy (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

Vacancy (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

12.3

-0.3

0.3

13.9

-0.3

-0.2

8.3

-0.2

0.2

8.1

-0.1

-0.3

12.4

0.0

-0.7

11.9

-0.6

-2.2

Residential

2.9

0.1

0.1

2.8

0.2

0.0

Total

9.1

-0.2

-0.4

9.8

-0.3

-1.2

Source: The Danish Property Federation. The vacancy rate covering all sectors also include rent and space for other commercial sectors and secondary premises.

Published by the Danish Property Federation


THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

WEB REPORT

Figure 1. Development in economic vacancy Percent 25,00

20,00

15,00

10,00

5,00

Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct.

0,00

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 Office

2006

2007 Retail

2008 Industrial

2009

2010 Residential

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Total

Source: The Danish Property Federation and own calculations based on data from IPD Danish Property Index and Oline-ED statistics. Rem.: Data from January 2014 and forward is from the Danish Property Federation. From 2001 to 2013, data from IPD Danish Property Index has been processed based on differences in level in 2014. In year 2000, office data from Oline-ED Statistics has been included. Methods are not identical, which is why there is a gap between October 2013 and January 2014. From January 2014, data is quarterly and before this data is annual. From 2014 there is a larger base of data.

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THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

Office

WEB REPORT

Low vacancy in Copenhagen CBD In the centre of Copenhagen, Copenhagen CBD, the economic vacancy has decreased further by 1.1 percentage points compared to last quarter and by 2.4 percentage points compared to last year. The economic vacancy in Copenhagen CBD is now down to 5.7 percent and half the level of January 2014. In addition, North Zealand has decreased by 1.1 percentage points, implying an overall decrease in the Capital Region. In Aarhus and Odense, the economic vacancy is increasing although the Mid Jutland Region and the Southern Denmark Region experience decreasescompared to last quarter. In the Mid Jutland there is decreasing vacancy in the other Mid Jutland area and in the Southern Denmark Region there is a decreasing vacancy in the Triangle Area. In the Northern Jutland Region, the economic vacancy is increasing to just above the national average. The Zealand Region shows a vacancy still below national average although the economic vacancy has increased a little bit compared to July.

Retail

Development of vacancy has changed In October, the vacancy for retail is decreasing again having quarterly increases in the three last consecutive quarters. The economic vacancy this quarter ends at 8.3 percent, while the spatial vacancy is 8.1 percent. Compared to last quarter, the economic vacancy has decreased by 0.2 percentage points, while the spatial vacancy has decreased by 0.1 percentage points. The decreasing vacancy is due to the developments in the Zealand Region, the Southern Denmark Region, and the Mid Jutland Region which decrease by respectively 2.4, 1.0 and 0.2 percentage points compared to July 2016. As seen in table 3, this is not enough for the Zealand Region and the Mid Jutland Region to get below the vacancy level for October last year. The Southern Denmark Region is the only region with a lower vacancy rate compared to last year. The Capital Region experience a minor increase by 0.2 percentage points compared to last quarter. Within the Capital Region, Copenhagen CBD increase by 1.3 percentage points, other Copenhagen and area remains unchanged, while Northern Zealand decrease by 0.7 percentage points. The economic vacancy level in Copenhagen CBD of 2.8 percent is still very low compared to the other areas and indicates a high demand on central retail rentals in Copenhagen. The Northern Jutland Region increase by 1.0 percentage points to a yearly 5.3 percentage points increase.

Published by the Danish Property Federation


THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

Industrial

WEB REPORT

Status quo for industry The overall economic vacancy for industry is unchanged compared to July, meaning that the average loss in annual lease for industry rentals is constant at 12.4 percent. Although the economic vacancy is unchanged this quarter, the level is still 0.7 percentage points below October last year. In contrast to the economic vacancy, the spatial vacancy has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.9 percent. Regionally, the economic vacancy for the Capital Region, the Southern Denmark Region and the Mid Jutland Region has decreased. The Mid Jutland Region decreases the most by 0.6 percentage points, while Capital Region and the Southern Denmark Region decreases with 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. The Zealand Region has an increased economic vacancy this quarter by 2.1 percentage points, resulting in an economic vacancy rate of 16.9 percent. Aarhus has experienced the largest decrease within industry by 2.1 percentage points.

Residential

Still low vacancy for residential The economic vacancy for residential is relatively unchanged with only minor general variations. In total, the economic vacancy this quarter has a small increase of 0.1 percentage points to a national average of 2.9 percent. Vacancy levels in the Capital Region, the Zealand Region and the Southern Denmark Region are 2.9, 3.2, and 1.5 percent respectively. Both the Zealand Region and the Southern Denmark Region experience a decrease in vacancy of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, while the Capital Region is unchanged compared to last quarter. Especially Odense and the Triangle Area have vacancy rates of 1.1 and 1.2 percent pulling down the vacancy level for the Southern Denmark Region. In the Mid Jutland Region, the economic and spatial vacancy rate has increased by 0.3 percentage points. The increase for both the economic and spatial vacancy is due to the development in Aarhus where the vacancy is 0.6 percentage points higher than in July. The Northern Jutland Region also experience an increase in the vacancy rate. Other Mid Jutland and other Northern Jutland both decrease by 0.5 percentage points and offsetting some of the increase within the Mid Jutland and Northern Jutland Region.

Published by the Danish Property Federation


THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016 N

Ø

V

S

WEB REPORT

Geographical overview Northern Jutland Region

Aalborg

Mid Jutland Region

Aarhus Northern Seeland Capital Region

Other Copenhagen & area

Triangle area Seeland Region

Southern Denmark Region

Odense

Western and Southern Seeland

Copenhagen CBD Eastern Seeland

Source: The Danish Property Federation.

Copenhagen CBD

Christiansborg

Copenhagen CBD covers the zip codes: 900, 1000-1559,

Tivoli

1562-1609, 1611-1614. Source: The Danish Property Federation.

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THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

WEB REPORT

Table 2. Office Economic vacancy rate

Spatial vacancy rate

October 2016 (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

October 2016 (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

12.3

-0.4

0.2

13.8

-0.4

-0.2

Capital Region Copenhagen CBD

5.7

-1.1

-2.4

6.1

-1.0

-2.1

Other Copenhagen and area

13.8

0.0

0.9

15.2

-0.1

0.2

Northern Zealand

21.4

-1.1

2.9

19.4

-3.2

0.2

9.1

0.4

0.0

11.2

0.0

0.1

-0.3

-3.4 2.0

Zealand Region Eastern Zealand

8.3

8.2

Western and Southern Zealand

9.8

13.4

Southern Denmark Region

10.6

Odense Triangle Area Mid Jutland Region Aarhus Other Mid Jutland

-0.1

-1.6

13.6

14.8

1.2

3.2

19.0

0.9

9.9

-1.0

12.7

-1.0

13.6

-0.2

1.0

15.5

-0.4

0.8

15.7

0.4

2.0

17.2

0.1

1.9

6.6

-1.1

-1.6

10.0

-1.4

-2.4

Northern Jutland Region

13.0

1.2

3.7

15.2

1.6

3.8

Total

12.3

-0.3

0.3

13.9

-0.3

-0.2

Source: The Danish Property Federation.

Table 3. Retail Economic vacancy rate October 2016 (percent) Capital Region

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Spatial vacancy rate

Annual change (percentage points)

October 2016 (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

7.7

0.2

0.1

7.1

0.2

-0.6

Copenhagen CBD

2.8

1.3

1.4

1.9

0.3

0.4

Other Copenhagen and area

9.0

0.0

-0.1

8.0

0.2

-0.8

10.3

-0.7

-0.1

11.4

0.5

0.0

12.4

-2.4

0.1

11.7

-1.3

0.7

Eastern Zealand

11.7

-2.3

1.3

10.4

-0.9

1.4

Western and Southern Zealand

14.1

-2.4

-2.8

13.5

-1.9

-0.2

7.6

-1.0

-0.6

7.8

-0.8

-0.4

7.1

-1.2

0.3

7.5

-1.2

-0.7

6.9

-0.2

0.2

9.0

0.2

0.1

4.5

0.3

0.3

4.4

0.4

-0.5

11.6

-1.0

0.1

15.2

-0.3

1.0

14.2

1.0

5.3

9.8

0.3

0.0

8.3

-0.2

0.2

8.1

-0.1

-0.3

Northern Zealand Zealand Region

Southern Denmark Region Triangle Area Mid Jutland Region Aarhus Other Mid Jutland Northern Jutland Region Total Source: The Danish Property Federation.

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THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

WEB REPORT

Table 4. Industrial Economic vacancy rate Quarterly change (percentage points)

October 2016 (percent) Capital Region

Spatial vacancy rate

Annual change (percentage points)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

October 2016 (percent)

Annual change (percentage points)

13.2

-0.5

-1.2

12.6

-0.8

-2.5

Copenhagen CBD

13.2

-0.1

1.7

24.5

0.3

1.4

Other Copenhagen and area

13.3

-0.5

-1.8

11.5

-1.0

-3.1

Northern Zealand

12.7

-0.1

2.3

12.9

-0.4

-0.2

Zealand Region

16.9

2.1

1.0

12.2

1.1

-2.5

Southern Denmark

11.7

-0.3

0.9

16.4

0.0

-0.2

Mid Jutland Region

5.3

-0.6

-1.0

6.6

-0.4

-1.6

5.3

-2.1

-2.4

6.6

-1.5

-2.6

12.4

0.0

-0.7

11.9

-0.6

-2.2

Aarhus Total

Source: The Danish Property Federation.

Tabel 5. Residential Economic vacancy rate

Spatial vacancy rate

October 2016 (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

October 2016 (percent)

Quarterly change (percentage points)

Annual change (percentage points)

2.9

0.0

0.4

2.7

0.0

0.2

Copenhagen CBD

4.4

0.1

-0.4

3.6

-0.2

-1.0

Other Copenhagen and area

2.6

0.0

0.2

2.4

0.1

0.0

Northern Zealand

3.7

0.0

2.3

3.5

0.0

2.1

Capital Region

Zealand Region

3.2

-0.2

-1.8

4.1

-0.2

-2.0

Eastern Zealand

2.1

0.2

-1.4

2.2

0.2

-1.2

Western- and Southern Zealand

3.6

-0.3

-2.0

4.7

-0.2

-2.5

Southern Denmark

1.5

-0.1

-0.3

1.5

0.0

-0.2

Odense

1.1

0.0

-0.4

1.1

-0.1

-0.4

Triangle Area

1.2

-0.5

-1.4

1.0

-0.3

-1.3

Other Southern Denmark

2.1

0.0

0.5

2.2

0.1

0.7

3.6

0.3

-1.5

3.2

0.3

-1.1

Mid Jutland Region Aarhus

3.7

0.6

-1.6

3.2

0.6

-1.0

Other Mid Jutland

3.3

-0.5

-1.2

3.3

-0.5

-1.3

Northern Jutland Region

3.7

1.4

2.5

3.9

1.3

2.4

Aalborg

3.6

1.7

2.8

3.7

1.7

2.9

Other Northern Jutland

4.6

-0.5

0.0

6.7

-0.9

-0.1

2.9

0.1

0.1

2.8

0.2

0.0

Total Source: The Danish Property Federation.

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THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK October 2016

WEB REPORT

About the Market Statistics This web report is published on 11 November 2016. Next planned publishing is mid February 2017. The report has been based on data from: 2 + 3 Ejendomme, Aberdeen Asset Management, Alm. Brand, Andersen Partners Ejendomsadministration, AP Pension, Arkitekternes Pensionskasse, ATP, Bevica Fonden, Blue Vision, Carlsbergfondet, CEJ Ejendomsadministration, Coller Capital, CS Pensionsfond, CW Obel Ejendomme, DADES, Danica, Dansk Sygeplejeråd, Danske Bank, DATEA, DEAS, DEAS Invest 1, DIP, DNP Ejendomme A/S, Ejendomsselskaberne Grønløkkevej 10, Fast Ejendom Danmark, Fokus Asset Management, FrederiksbergFonden, Færchfonden, Grosserer Schiellerup og Hustrus Fonde, Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honorés Fond, HD Ejendomme, Højgaard Ejendomme, Industriens Pension, Jammerbugt Kommune, Jeudan, Jorcks Ejendomsselskab, JØP, Kalkværksgrundene, Kalvebod Ejendomme, KIRKBI, Kramers Legat, LB Forsikring, Lægernes Pensionskasse, Lærernes Pension, MP Pension, Niam, Nordea Ejendomme, Nordea Liv og Pension, North Property Asset Management, NREP, PBU, PenSam, PensionDanmark, Pensionskassen for Farmakonomer, PFA, Pitzner Ejendomme, PKA, ProDomus, Realdania, Sampension, SEB, SPG Omsorg DK1, Steen & Strøm, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, TDC Pensionskasse, Topdanmark, Tryg, Valad and Aage Larsens Boligudlejning. The portfolios have approx. 75.000 rentals corresponding to an annual lease value of DKK 17.3 bn and 14.9 m m2. In order to compare, the statistical base in October 2015 had an annual lease value of DKK 15.4 bn and 13.3 m m2. The base of the economic vacancy is the actual rent. The economic vacancy is defined as: Sum of actual rent in all vacant leases divided with the sum of actual rent in both occupied and vacant rentals. The Market Statistics is based on quarterly processed property data for rentals and vacancies within the period in question. This web report has been closed per 30 September 2016 and is called October 2016. Quarterly change is from October 2016 (closed per 30 September 2016) compared to July 2016 (closed per 30 June 2016). Annual change is from October 2016 (closed per 30 September 2016) compared to October 2015 (closed per 30 September 2015). Published data are updated and valid on the date of publication. As the Market Statistics are updated ongoing, historic data might also be updated. We have chosen not to publish data, where the data is not sufficient to give valid and representative results or combinations if only one or very few portfolios are represented. For further information regarding this web report, please contact Chief Economist Morten Marott Larsen, mml@ejendomsforeningen.dk, phone +45 28 45 56 51.

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Profile for EjendomDanmark

EjendomDanmark marked statistics - Vacancy (oktober 2016)  

- Economic vacancy decrease in all quarters 2016 - Office vacancy has decreased compared to last quarter - Further decrease in economic vaca...

EjendomDanmark marked statistics - Vacancy (oktober 2016)  

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