FOR E IGN POLICY FO REI G N POLICY
A Time for Peace, a Time for War Permanent world order is an illusion. Seasons of violence always return, and the United States must learn to endure and manage them.
By Jakub Grygiel
T
he Biden administration has been vocal in defending what it calls
Key points
the “rules-based international
» The world is made up of temporary equilibria, not permanent settlements between nations.
order,” but there is no such thing.
An Earth-spanning security space governed by global rules or a few key powers doesn’t exist, as the war in Ukraine should remind us. There is also no “global threat” facing all states equally but, rather, regional revisionist powers threatening nearby states. Temporary regional equilibria with their own power dynamics are driven by local historical competitions. They are unstable and prone to wars. They require persistent attention and management.
» Local conflicts are based on, or justified by, historical claims. These can be both long-lasting and resistant to negotiation. » As a distant power, the United States must learn to navigate instability and regional conflicts—and to stay the course.
Jakub Grygiel is a national security visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, a senior adviser at the Marathon Initiative, and an associate professor of politics at the Catholic University of America. His latest book is Return of the Barbarians (Cambridge University Press, 2018). H O O V ER D IG E ST • S u m m e r 2022
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