Assessing the Impact of Climate Change in Borneo
10 – SUMMARY OF IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE Given the length of this report, it may be useful to collect and reproduce the key findings from the above sections. It is worth repeating here that these findings represent the best estimates able to be identified with the above methodology, given the limitations on time and data availability. The following summary represents projected impacts given a global average temperature rise of 2:C. Thus, many of the estimates that determine whether the impact of climate change is positive or negative are made from synthesizing the best available research rather than making a specific calculation (as typical economic analysis might imply). Nonetheless, to the extent that the methodology used to arrive at these conclusions is accepted, these estimates represent the best feasible information until further research on each specific point can be conducted.
Summary of Temperature and Precipitation Effects from ClimaScope Modeling in Six Conservation Areas All regions besides Batang Ai are projected to increase slightly more than the global average. Precipitation is projected to increase in four of the six regions. Two regions, Batang Ai and Kayan Mentarang, are projected to have high water stress from a combination of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. Datau Sentarum may also have water stress due to large temperature increase and small precipitation increase. There exists a general seasonality trend in which dry seasons become wetter and wet seasons become dryer.
Summary of Temperature and Precipitation Effects from World Bank CCKP Most of Borneo is projected to become wetter, but there are regions with little to negative increase in precipitation. o The northeast, southwest, and interior eastern coast of Borneo show the most loss in precipitation, while most of central Borneo and the northwest are becoming considerably wetter. Almost all of Borneo is projected to experience temperature increases equal to the global average increase. o Little variance across the island. Reductions in the maximum five-day rain are projected by these models across the island. o Little regional variance besides the northern portion of Central Kalimantan province, the eastern side of Sarawak, and Sabah, which show the greatest percentage increase in maximum rain. Projected to be no change in maximum number of dry days for most of the island, with the exceptions of the area around Martapura and parts of southeastern West Kalimantan province. Almost all of Borneo is projected to have an increase in runoff, though the eastern coast in East Kalimantan province is projected to have little increase or decreases in runoff. Most of Borneo shows little risk for drought frequency increase. o Exception: area just north of Bontang. High-input, rainfed maize cultivation is projected to increase in yields.
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