WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
eastern europe/eurasia: reference scenario table 12.93: eastern europe/eurasia: electricity generation 2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
GW
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
758 63 63 48 12 3 276 0 292 1 0 0 0 0 0
967 94 103 132 9 0 309 3 304 10 1 1 3 0 0
1,169 99 126 217 8 0 376 6 316 15 2 2 5 0 0
1,550 110 167 427 3 0 426 21 352 30 4 3 9 0 0
1,915 135 234 577 4 0 438 35 396 72 6 9 15 0 0
2,305 158 279 791 4 1 463 46 431 100 8 13 19 0 0
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
188 17 17 11 8 2 42 0 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
230 22 25 29 8 0 45 1 94 5 0 1 0 0 0
265 22 28 47 6 0 53 1 97 8 1 1 1 0 0
330 22 33 85 2 0 59 4 107 14 2 3 2 0 0
409 25 43 110 3 0 60 6 119 34 2 7 3 0 0
496 29 51 150 3 0 63 8 130 47 3 10 3 0 0
Combined heat & power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers
850 166 84 573 24 3 0 0
890 164 79 626 16 5 0 0
901 164 73 643 14 6 0 0
916 163 70 668 8 8 0 0
932 158 67 693 4 10 1 0
947 152 61 719 2 12 2 0
218 46 23 134 14 1 0 0
204 39 19 133 12 1 0 0
199 37 16 135 10 1 0 0
183 33 14 132 4 1 0 0
177 29 12 132 1 1 0 0
180 29 11 137 0 2 0 0
797 53
825 65
830 71
835 81
840 92
845 102
Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers
209 9
193 11
187 12
168 15
159 18
159 20
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
1,608 1,035 229 147 621 36 3 276 0 296 292 1 0 0 3 0 0 0
1,857 1,224 258 182 759 26 0 309 0 324 304 10 1 1 7 3 0 0
2,069 1,344 263 199 860 22 0 376 0 350 316 15 2 2 12 5 0 0
2,466 1,616 273 237 1,095 11 0 426 0 423 352 30 4 3 29 9 0 0
2,847 1,871 292 301 1,270 8 0 438 0 537 396 72 6 9 45 16 0 0
3,252 2,166 310 340 1,510 6 1 463 0 623 431 100 8 13 58 21 0 0
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind of which wind offshore PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
406 273 63 40 146 22 2 42 0 91 90 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
434 287 62 43 161 21 0 45 0 102 94 5 0 1 1 0 0 0
463 301 59 44 182 16 0 53 0 109 97 8 1 1 2 1 0 0
513 324 54 47 217 6 0 59 0 130 107 14 2 3 5 2 0 0
586 356 54 56 242 4 0 60 0 170 119 34 2 7 8 3 0 0
675 412 58 63 287 3 0 63 0 200 130 47 3 10 10 3 0 0
Distribution losses Own consumption electricity Electricity for hydrogen production Final energy consumption (electricity)
183 248 0 1,154
187 287 0 1,357
200 307 0 1,537
226 347 1 1,867
239 366 2 2,218
257 394 2 2,577
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation)
0 0.1% 22.4%
6 1.4% 23.5%
9 2.0% 23.6%
17 3.3% 25.4%
41 7.0% 29.0%
57 8.5% 29.7%
1 0.0% 18.4%
11 0.6% 17.4%
17 0.8% 16.9%
33 1.4% 17.2%
81 2.8% 18.9%
113 3.5% 19.2%
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share (domestic generation)
table 12.94: eastern europe/eurasia: heat supply
12
table 12.96: eastern europe/eurasia: installed capacity
2009
TWh/a
glossary & appendix | APPENDIX - EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA
PJ/a
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
District heating Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal
3,320 3,225 95 0 0
3,308 3,207 101 0 0
3,549 3,441 109 0 0
3,989 3,867 122 0 0
4,591 4,450 140 0 0
5,621 5,449 172 0 0
Heat from CHP Fossil fuels Biomass Geothermal Hydrogen
3,866 3,843 23 0 0
3,974 3,938 36 0 0
4,011 3,966 45 0 0
4,059 4,001 58 0 0
4,108 4,027 73 8 0
4,159 4,049 90 20 0
Direct heating1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2)
9,102 8,688 404 3 7
10,053 9,598 445 6 5
10,926 10,432 481 5 7
12,270 11,673 576 10 10
13,534 12,799 672 14 50
14,321 13,484 763 18 57
16,288 15,755 523 3 7 0
17,335 16,742 582 6 5 0
18,486 17,839 635 6 7 0
20,318 19,541 756 10 10 0
22,233 21,276 886 14 58 0
24,102 22,982 1,025 18 77 0
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
3.8%
4.3%
4.6%
Total heat supply1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2) Hydrogen RES share (including RES electricity)
table 12.97: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy demand PJ/a Total Fossil Hard coal Lignite Natural gas Crude oil Nuclear Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal/ambient heat Ocean energy RES share
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Condensation power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel
233 90 69 48 21 4
403 127 138 117 20 1
489 128 164 177 19 1
673 138 210 313 12 1
826 136 286 388 15 2
802 124 340 319 17 2
Combined heat & power production Coal Lignite Gas Oil
979 237 120 582 40
918 221 106 556 36
871 214 95 526 36
807 205 87 488 26
780 193 81 491 15
775 185 75 509 6
CO2 emissions power generation (incl. CHP public) Coal Lignite Gas Oil & diesel
1,212 327 189 630 66
1,322 347 244 673 57
1,360 342 259 703 56
1,480 343 297 801 40
1,607 329 367 879 32
1,578 310 415 828 25
CO2 emissions by sector % of 1990 emissions Industry1) Other sectors1) Transport Power generation2) District heating & other conversion
2,483 62% 318 346 262 1,158 399
2,671 66% 361 375 296 1,259 380
2,812 70% 392 403 324 1,296 396
3,113 77% 430 449 392 1,412 429
3,415 85% 463 490 456 1,533 473
3,557 88% 478 512 515 1,502 550
339 7.3
340 7.9
341 8.2
337 9.2
331 10.3
324 11.0
MILL t/a
Population (Mill.) CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)
1) including CHP autoproducers. 2) including CHP public
318
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
51,607 45,998 7,941 2,726 25,515 9,817
55,034 48,482 8,086 2,807 27,258 10,331
61,444 53,764 8,417 3,083 31,132 11,132
66,948 58,355 8,322 3,761 34,194 12,078
69,239 59,823 7,959 4,225 34,678 12,961
3,031 1,972 1,053 2 3 893 22 0 4.1%
3,387 2,222 1,093 35 9 1,003 82 0 4.3%
4,118 2,434 1,140 55 11 1,088 140 0 4.4%
4,665 3,015 1,268 109 21 1,390 227 0 4.9%
4,794 3,799 1,425 259 45 1,691 378 0 5.7%
5,068 4,347 1,553 360 64 1,947 424 0 6.3%
table 12.98: eastern europe/eurasia: final energy demand 2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
28,213 25,320 5,598 3,823 1,375 28 372 68 0 1.7%
31,288 28,284 6,678 4,379 1,780 53 466 81 0 2.0%
33,712 30,493 7,084 4,717 1,834 51 482 81 0 1.9%
38,036 34,371 8,027 5,421 1,972 59 572 98 3 2.0%
42,387 38,355 9,007 6,155 2,078 66 703 133 4 2.2%
46,401 42,162 9,959 6,950 2,120 74 808 155 7 2.3%
8,144 1,858 343 2,098 17 525 887 2,719 0 57 0 0 5.1%
9,202 2,324 406 2,100 39 1,229 906 2,560 0 82 0 0 5.7%
10,022 2,640 447 2,122 43 1,304 950 2,917 0 88 0 0 5.8%
11,269 3,181 546 2,249 50 1,364 1,053 3,311 0 111 0 0 6.3%
12,623 3,765 711 2,470 63 1,322 1,150 3,764 0 152 0 0 7.3%
13,972 4,388 840 2,889 83 1,139 1,154 4,218 0 184 0 0 7.9%
11,577 1,923 355 3,699 25 368 967 4,175 3 436 5 7.1%
12,404 2,097 366 3,774 59 369 1,245 4,456 6 454 5 7.2%
13,387 2,413 408 3,978 65 399 1,265 4,843 5 478 7 7.2%
15,075 2,968 509 4,244 73 431 1,251 5,618 10 543 9 7.6%
16,725 3,517 664 4,547 88 389 1,269 6,339 14 611 39 8.5%
18,230 4,080 781 5,000 111 207 1,288 6,908 18 683 45 9.0%
Total RES RES share
1,337 5.3%
1,550 5.5%
1,673 5.5%
2,011 5.8%
2,542 6.6%
2,976 7.1%
Non energy use Oil Gas Coal
2,894 1,384 1,439 70
3,003 1,399 1,512 92
3,220 1,499 1,621 99
3,665 1,706 1,845 113
4,032 1,878 2,030 124
4,239 1,974 2,135 131
PJ/a Total (incl. non-energy use) Total (energy use) Transport Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity RES electricity Hydrogen RES share Transport
1) heat from electricity (direct) not included; 2) including heat pumps.
table 12.95: eastern europe/eurasia: co2 emissions
2009 47,315 42,313 7,138 2,182 24,069 8,923
Industry Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat Hydrogen RES share Industry Other Sectors Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal/ambient heat RES share Other Sectors