WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
latin america GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
latin america: heating supply
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
table 5.14: latin america: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
key results |
Renewables currently provide 38% of Latin America’s energy demand for heat supply, the main contribution coming from the use of biomass. The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 67% of Latin America’s total heat demand in 2030 and 97% in 2050.
2009
LATIN AMERICA - HEATING
• Energy efficiency measures can restrict the future primary energy demand for heat supply to a 29% increase, in spite of improving living standards. • In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly replacing conventional fossil fuelled heating systems.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Biomass
REF E[R]
Solar collectors
REF E[R]
17 17
42 461
72 126 209 840 1,262 1,465
Geothermal
REF E[R]
0 0
3 257
7 15 25 563 1,213 1,757
Hydrogen
REF E[R]
0 0
0 71
Total
REF E[R]
2,089 2,452 2,626 2,801 2,902 2,089 2,679 3,117 3,529 3,451
0 261
0 322
2,106 2,497 2,705 2,941 3,136 2,106 3,467 4,781 6,327 6,976
• A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario about 2,370 PJ/a are saved by 2050, or 25% compared to the Reference scenario. Table 5.14 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in Latin America over time. Biomass will remain the main contributor for renewable heat. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat (including heat pumps) will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. figure 5.38: latin america: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
••• •• •
2,000
PJ/a 0 REF 2009
102
E[R]
REF 2015
E[R]
REF 2020
E[R]
REF 2030
E[R]
REF 2040
E[R]
0 303
REF 2050
E[R]
‘EFFICIENCY’ HYDROGEN GEOTHERMAL SOLAR BIOMASS FOSSIL