base demand matrix structure;
derivation of the base year demand and generalised costs for each mode and the data sources used;
future year growth factors used;
mode choice functionality (LOGIT); and
model calibration.
Several updates to the model have been carried out for the work reported here:
the base year demand matrices (car, rail and air) were updated from 2007 to 2011; and
growth factors were updated where applicable.
However, it is important to note that, in relation to the 2009 model:
air and rail fares, and car costs remain unchanged;
car, rail and air generalised journey times remain (with one exception) unchanged;
the model has not been re-calibrated;
the crowding functionality remains unchanged; and
the fares assumptions remain unchanged, and in particular it is still assumed that no premium fare will apply to high-speed rail services compared to Classic services.
The updated model was used to test the impact of three scenarios:
No HS2 – this assumes high-speed rail services are not introduced in 2026 and that Classic rail journey times and frequencies remain unchanged;
HS2 only scenario – this assumes Phase 1 HS2 services begin in 2026 and Phase 2 in 2033, but that there is no direct link between HS2 and HS1; and
HS2-HS1 scenario – as per the HS2 scenario but with a direct link between HS2 and HS1 enabling direct high-speed services from Kent (via Ashford and Ebbsfleet) and East London (via Stratford) to destinations in the West Midlands and Northern England.