The Future of Brands

october 2014 editorial

Brands face a game of thrones text Stefan Liute

Brands have always been multi-factorial, multi-faceted beasts. They’re becoming more so.

We’re seeing more opportunistic co-operation and co-creation as walls fall down between brands and customers, as well as between competing brands. Any ‘throne pretenders’ face two challenges. One is positioning. The other is power.

positioning It is getting ever harder for brands to build strong positions in our minds. They have always needed to make a stand. Now they need to excel at it, way beyond paid media and deep down into what they really are. They have to be authentic, focusing on their strengths, including the genuine convictions of the people who steer them – while admitting imperfections and limitations. To do this, they need to perfectly align all brand components – product, environment, behaviour, and communication – which means better integrating the departments that manage them. This is how today’s knowledge and organisational silos will disappear.

They also have to strengthen their ability to listen and empathise. Brands are doing more research and analysis in-house, with new means and channels provided by a world of always-connected devices. In future they will need to get more involved in major social, political and cultural changes, taking sides and making ethical stands in a much stronger fashion than they do now. Brands that oscillate, pretend, evade, and postpone will lose.

power A transfer of power from brand to customer is taking place, with technology and access to knowledge lev­elling the playing field. Brands need to evolve from profitmaximisation engines into relationship manage­ment systems. These systems will have to be more data-driven and less controlling, because owners and customers will jointly create brand equity in peer-to-peer arrangements.

Brand loyalty will likely continue to decrease, particularly in the case of commoditised products and ser­vices, where purchases require low buyer involvement. However, where brands manage to build unusually strong connections with their customers (and thus avoid commoditisation) loyalty will increase. The source of such strong connections will be the personal touch, so these brands will usually be the creation of small organisations. At the same time, large organisations will excel at building brands that thrive at low or nonexistent loyalty levels.

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curator Anna Simpson art direction & design zago nyc (Maria Lago) production Ruth Prior Sarah Veniard research Robert Greenfield Jessica Naylor Jie Hui Kia Jon Turney direction James Goodman Esther Maughan McLachlan Ariel Muller

image credits Cover : artist - Jeremy Hutchison; photographer Jonathan Minster p.4: Bea Mahan, abc+, http:// www.beamahan.com p.16: Alexander Kosolapov Malevich - Black Square 1987 Oil on canvas 119.5 x 173cm © Alexander Kosolapov, 1987 Image courtesy of the Tsukanov Family Foundation Collection, London p.19: torbakhopper HE DEAD, Revolution Toy p.27: Nathan Sawaya, Untitled.

Nathan uses Lego bricks to create his art, pushing the boundaries of traditional mediums, brickartist.com

contents Brands shape how we see the world and relate to it. They amplify cultures, influence perceptions, and create new norms.

We shouldn't underestimate their power. But as the world changes, so will the role and manifestation of brands in it.

civic engagement

16 -23

Brand stand 17 Brand stand: Will brands take sides on the civic playing field?

19 Sally Uren: Pressure gauge 20 Signs of change

With this edition, we are challenging ourselves to fathom the future of brands. We scanned the horizon to collect signs of change, interviewed experts, and invited critical analysis of the shifting scene. As we were doing this, three significant ways in which brands are responding to change emerged.

They are taking a stand in society. They are engaging with artists and creators. And they are becoming more intimately involved in our personal lives. What difference will they make to our future? What good might come of it? What are the risks?

21 David Brunt: the value of social impact 22 A tool to help brands find purpose

creative engagement

24-33

The cover image is taken from a pop-up shop selling useless objects, staged in the London gallery Paradise Row. The artist, Jeremy Hutchison, asked factory workers in China, India, Turkey and Pakistan to insert a design error into the items they produced, exploring the relationship between perceived value and purpose.

25 Play time: What happens when artists, makers and brands meet?

setting the scene Published by Forum for the Future Registered Charity Number: 1040519 ISSN No: 1366-4417 © Forum for the Future 2014 The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Forum for the Future, nor any of its associates.

This publication was printed by Pureprint, using their environmental print technology and vegetable based inks, developed back in 1990. Since then, Pureprint has gone on to win numerous awards for their environmental achievements, including the Queens Award for Enterprise 2013 – Sustainable Development.

It was mailed in SUPERECO bags, made of a biodegradable biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film which is recyclable, and non-toxic in landfill.

By using Cocoon Silk 100% recycled paper, supplied by Arjowiggins Graphic, as opposed to a virgin fibre paper, the environmental impact was reduced by: 2088kg of landfill, 280kg CO2 and greenhouse gases, 57,907 litres of water, 5,336 kWh of energy and 3,393 kg of wood.

Carbon footprint data evaluated by Labelia Conseil in accordance with the Bilan Carbone® methodology. Calculations are based on a comparison between the recycled paper used versus a virgin fibre paper according to the latest European BREF data (virgin fibre paper) available.

Forum for the Future is certified to the ISO 14001 standard.

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Play time 27 Co-creating the future 28 Signs of change

4 Biography of brands

30 Giorgia Lupi: Seeing is understanding

8 Don’t call me ‘millennial’

32 What will the Internet of Things mean for brands?

10 Four scenarios for 2030 12 David Hall: The no-brand challenge 14 Who to watch? Four brands redefining their market

personal engagement

34-47

Personal touch 35 Personal touch: Just how closely will brands engage with us?

37 Signs of change 38 Trust and traceability 40 Professor Gemma Calvert: neuromarketing 42 Intimate conversations 45 Gut instinct

the future of brands

october 2014 introduction

Biography of brands

text Anna Simpson

origins

art Bea Mahan abc+

How did brands begin? The subject emerged as a major discipline in marketing schools in the 1970s, but academics trace the origins of brands as a commercial phenomenon to over 4,000 years ago in the Indus Valley. Professors Karl Moore and Susan Reid of McGill University describe the emergence of proto-brands in the Harappan cities of 2500 BCE, where craftsmen working in stone and bronze would create little square seals with animal figures, and sell them to merchants as trademarks. These marks indicated the origin of manufacture and points along the supply chain (sorting, storage). Etymologically, the word ‘brand’ is often associated with traders’ marks burnt onto livestock hide.

Brands evolved not only to convey information about where a product came from and who made it, but also to carry imagery suggesting value. Early examples might include the use of Shiva as a fertility god in the Harappan seals, or the brand of Melqart, a Tyrian Iron Age king whose princes and priests presided over a well-oiled multinational trading machine, closely linked to Melqart’s godlike status and imperial agenda.

As Moore and Reid put it, the value of a brand is not just transactional, but transformational. By evoking common cultural markers, they cultivate and respond to aspirations for change and development.1

[ 1 ] mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10169/1/ MPRA_paper_10169.pdf

WHERE DID THEY COME FROM AND WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

what came next?

Shift west, and leap forward to the 1730s, when the printing press triggered a news frenzy.

Newspapers would provide advert space and coverage to new brands, and chart innovations such as the Wright Brother’s first flight (1903). In 1885 the Lever Brothers begin making soap, later merging with a Dutch company, Margarine Unie, to form Unilever. By 1892, General Electric is on the scene, making trademark advances in electric lighting and appliances. Henry Ford’s conveyor belt assembly line comes on-stream in 1913, building cars in 23 minutes to put them within the economic reach of the average American. Then in the 1930s, the first ever television broadcast leads to TV adverts and product placement. Leap forward again, and the hashtag has transformed the speed at which ideas, messages, criticisms and entertainment circulate.

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october 2014 introduction

changing context

believe businesses should have a social purpose. Brands are expected to make life better not just momentarily but in the long-term. TUI, for instance, promises “a holiday where you can get back to your true self and enjoy moments that really matter, now and in times to come” – emphasising both the experience and its sustainable approach.

The potential of brands is no longer framed by either logo or trade. Political leaders, non-profits and global socialites are developing their brand. In China, Premier Xi Jinping is the first ruler to employ a big team to build his public profile since Chairman Mao. And he’s challenging what it means to be head of state in China: out of the limo, and onto the bus.4

what promise?

The notion of ‘brand promise’ bridges the gap between business strategy and marketing: what the business does, and what it says it will do. The Chinese tech giant Alibaba rose with no branding to speak of, even in China. Its promise and strategy were one and the same: simply to deliver, ensuring customers always got what they ordered. And so it burst almost unknown onto the New York Stock Exchange, opening with an overall market value of $168 billion.

The implication is that if the business has a clear sense of its purpose and sets out to achieve it with integrity, then it will keep its ‘promise’ and the brand will thrive as a result.

So runs the logic leading to what Singapore’s Business Insider describes as the “worst nightmare” of Abercrombie and Fitch’s CEO, Mike Jeffries. He built up the brand by plastering logos – the square seals of the 20th century – all over the company’s clothes and consumables. Now, he’s taking them off.

brands beyond logo The fall of the logo is not the fall of the brand. Brands are multimedia channels, delivering meaning and culture through journalism, art, film, pop-up theatre, music videos and more. Their value rests as much in the quality of the story they tell – uprated by their online audiences – as in the product reviews. Hits, visits and trending tales sit alongside sales as markers of a successful campaign. They are expected to add cultural value, challenging our assumptions through political campaigns, decorating our streets with art and not just advertising. Moreover, people are looking to brands not just for embellishments, but for long-term engagement with societal issues. The study ‘Combining Profit and Purpose’ published in October 2014 by Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) in partnership with Cranfield’s Doughty Centre for Corporate Responsibility and The Financial Times’ FT Remark (FT), found that 88% of current CEOs and 90% of future leaders surveyed 8

beyond brands?

Stripped of the logo and the commercial context, what is a brand? Its ultimate role, coming back to Moore and Reid, is to “carry and communicate cultural meaning that is both transactional (information-related) and transformational (image-related) in character”.

Of course, meaning must travel between two or more parties. Another way to understand brands is a means of mediating relationships – mostly, though not exclusively, between an organisation and its users, and often between a company and its customers.

If we take this mediation as our definition of a brand, then anything affecting those relationships will also affect the role and manifestation of brands: the messages it carries, the vessel it chooses and the route it takes.

Changes in how people relate to each other and to social structures come from many sources: communications technology is an obvious one, now offering people an unprecedented capacity to share and to influence. Other shifts might be demographic – affecting the values and aspirations of the people in question; political – shaping motivations; or cultural and linguistic, challenging any assumptions of common understanding. Scientific applications are already unleashing the potential for people and business to engage in ways that are very close indeed – through lifestyle monitoring, internal health sensors, and even modifications to the human microbiome. These pressures will have an impact on how we relate to one another, how quickly and by what means messages are shared, how they are understood, and what impact they have. There’s much talk of ‘emotional branding’; what does it mean for a brand to care? Is that possible? Should it be?

Anna Simpson is the Curator of Forum for the Future’s new Futures Centre, and author of The Brand Strategist’s Guide to Desire (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014). Readers of Green Futures will know her already as the magazine’s most recent editor. @_annasimpson

[ 3 ] spiegel.de/international/business/interviewexpert-nirmalya-kumar-on-rise-of-emergingmarket-brands-a-942399.html

[ 2 ] bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/ world-with-more-phones-than-toiletsshows-water-challenge.html

The context in which early brands developed was dominated by urbanisation and the rise of international trade. Local crafts journeyed from the maker to the packaging and sorting centre to the seafarer to the merchant: a supply chain tracked to add value for the end user. Iconic brands, from McDonald’s arches to Apple’s bite, have combined deep cultural roots with easy adaptation to different contexts.

Needless to say, what we make and how we trade has changed, and is now subject to rapid flux. New approaches to manufacture and trade are emerging in a hyperconnected world, where more people now have access to smartphones than sanitation.2 The journey of a product can now be so complex that every milestone could be as significant to the brand as the origin. Traceability is a concern for health-conscious consumers, particularly in Asia [see p. 39], but is this enough to determine a brand’s value and success?

As London Business School Professor Nirmalya Kumar told Spiegel, “Brands are not being defined by their country of origin any longer. Of course, if I market champagne, the country of origin still plays a role. However, if you buy an iPhone from Apple you don’t think Made in China. And if you drive a Jaguar or Land Rover you don’t care about its Indian owner Tata or that the CEO of Jaguar Land Rover Automotive is a German. What matters to the consumer is whether the brand keeps what it promises.”3

[ 3 ] economist.com/news/leaders/21618780-mostpowerful-and-popular-leader-china-has-haddecades-must-use-these-assets-wisely-xi

the future of brands

new me mes As Stefan Liute, Strategy Director at the brand agency Storience argues, branding is reaching the end of its days. “The trade’s terminology is constantly evolving and fashionable labels grow tired at some point. We will call this discipline by a different name, giving up the pretty barbaric branding.” Liute believes branding terminology and concepts will diverge into two subspecies: a “pragmatic one”, focused on economic results, and “an academic one, idealist and focused to bring the world back into balance”.

This edition explores the future of brands, questioning their value in mediating relationships, and interrogating their readiness to adapt in order to engage with people on three levels: civic, creative and personal. In the first chapter, we question the roles brands can play in the lives of citisens, activists, visionaries and change-makers. In the second, we ask how brands can engage with creativity in individuals and society. And finally, we reflect on the capacity of brands to gain greater personal proximity to us, from our physical health to the workings of our minds.

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text Harriet Kingaby & Jen Katan art Portrait of Maggie Wilson Watching a 3D Movie, after Frank Duveneck’. Mike Licht

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setting the scene

So here we are, the millennial generation. Those that had our first snog, beer, or fag as the world quaked in the shadow of the millennium bug.

According to some, we’re self-obsessed and entitled. Narcissists addicted to smartphones, clicktivists with superficial knowledge. We’re lazy, addicted to consumption, with grand, unrealistic life expectations that make us impossible to manage. We are not the sum of our talents, degrees, or achievements, but of our Facebook likes and Instagram feeds.

We are ‘millennials’.

Or so we’re told.

The reality is that we’re a generation in ascendancy. Soon to be the largest workforce in history, we will (eventually) run the world. However, we come with an inherently different set of values to previous generations. Human resources managers are mystified by our work ethic; big business finds us increasingly hard to sell to; older generations slam our dependence on technology.

So what next? What do traditional systems do with a generation that often follows its hearts and guts over its wallet? That values creativity, experience and culture over possessions – but is also a growing global middle class that demands the new iPhone? The most connected global peer group in human history, that aspires for a better world, yet at the same time is opinionated and rebellious – unwilling to engage with traditional systems and insisting that we ‘do it ourselves’.

Some will denounce us and claim these paradoxes demonstrate our inherently fickle nature, or an inability to disengage with our smartphones and connect with the ‘real world’.

Instead, we see a language gap. A tragic lack of coherent dialogue that really represents our generation’s varied beliefs and aspirations. A fundamental misunderstanding of what it means to be ‘millennial’. When we reject ‘green’ or traditional politics, we don’t reject the need for change, simply the baggage that comes with them. It’s not that we are not listening, just that you are not speaking our language.

We will inhabit the future, and as such, we need a thriving, viable platform from which to mould it.1 We need outlets to voice these needs, to inspire a belief in our ability to shape this future, which opens conversation to the mainstream, not just the elite. We must call for greater understanding of who millennials are and really question the forces acting upon, under, or before us.

In 1961, Yayoi Kusama, said of the American art scene: Even those ostensibly new schools of thought that arose to oppose the [existing ones] only embraced, in the end, nostalgia for [what had gone before]; they were incapable of moving so much as a single step beyond historical theory … The truth is that, at the time, there was not even the hint of any renaissance or rising tide that would define the century. Nor was it easy to imagine that we were approaching some sort of critical mass. The only thing certain was that the future was up to us, the younger generation.”

That was the 1960s: arguably the seminal decade of the last century in terms of social change. Our millennial renaissance? It’s almost here. It echoes in the passion of the pub debate, in the drum beat of the intrapreneur movement, and the steps of entrepreneurs paving their own way.

Not all of us have grand ambitions to ‘save the world’. But we look forward to our remaining 80 years of life, and want them to be the best they can be. This means change.

This means dialogues and power dynamics that work for us. It’s time to ditch ‘sustainability’ and ‘green’ and move on. The future really is ours: we must find our voice and claim it.

[ 1 ] Forum for the Future has partnered with VICE and 30 global brands to launch collectively.org, a new digital platform to inspire ‘Millennials’ to make sustainable living the ‘new normal’.

Don’t call me ‘Millennial’

october 2014

Harriet Kingaby and Jen Katan are marketers who’d like to refresh the conversation about the ‘future’ and reinvent traditional ‘isms’ so that they confront current problems. Far from being rebels without a cause, we have dozens to choose from. We’d like to know what yours is, what makes you passionate. Tweet us your hopes and fears for 2025 @MillennialGRR or #My2025

the future of brands

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the future of brands

october 2014

setting the scene

Double or nothing The US has pushed ahead with a high-carbon, high-growth model, while the rest of the world

What if…?

looks on in dismay. Water shortages, crop failure, and loss of land to rising sea levels are sparking fierce global competition to secure supplies and develop alternatives. New frontiers are being opened up for resource extraction, from Antarctica and GMOs are a mainstream response to food crises.

How will consumers respond to the increasing prospect of crisis and conflict? Might they look to brands not just to satisfy their needs, but also for stability in the face of rapid change? If so,

FOUR SCENARIOS FOR THE YEAR 2030 TO MAKE BRANDS SIT UP

brands could gain such strength that governments call on them in times of crisis, to spur collective action. It’s a world of opportunity for brands that win trust through transparency and integrity.

Networked nation Government power is declining, and

Brands that value longevity know they must adapt to shifting landscapes for exchange and trade.

But are they planning for more radical change?

What happens when the economic and social contexts in which they operate undergo radical shifts? Technology – from 3D printing to robots to the internet of things – is affecting the way people exchange goods and services. Resource shortages and climate change are presenting ongoing challenges to value chains. Geopolitical tensions are affecting global trade (they always do).

Such pressures add up, and can lead to systemic change. Are brands seeing enough of the big picture to prepare for it?

the economy is struggling, if you refer to traditional metrics like GDP. However,

Predictive planet

[ 1 ] forumforthefuture.org/project/ retail-horizons/overview

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due to digital sharing platform distributed

The US is transitioning towards renewable

solar, subsidised energy storage, and the

energy and a less materially intensive economy,

rapid spread of disruptive technologies

while racing China and India |to innovate

for manufacture. Regulation and taxation

in digital technology. Knowledge is power, and

are unsolved problems, and state revenues

the likes of ‘Lifeo’ rule the world. This widely

are losing out.

exported wearable device records everything a user sees and hears, combines that with

In this scenario, brands could be profoundly

physiological data, and sends their ‘lifestream’

disrupted by piracy of consumer goods, from

into the cloud for storage and analysis.

clothing to furniture. What happens when the consumer no longer cares about the ‘real

If you have Lifeo, you don’t need any other

McCoy’ – when the copy is just as good,

brand: it’s your friend and PA for life. It spots

practically a clone, of the original? Will brands

the gap in your diary and suggests an activity

move closer to niche cultures in search

to raise your energy levels, followed by a finely

of a stand-out identity?

balanced meal. A flicker of the eyeball and the suit you wanted prints out of your wardrobe.

We ask how brands might respond to four scenarios for the future of the US retail market.

They are drawn from the Retail Horizons toolkit1, created by Forum for the Future and the Retail Industry Leaders Association to prompt strategists to embrace change, with sponsorship from Target and Unilever.

the informal, peer-to-peer economy is thriving

‘Retail’ becomes invisible. A compromise in privacy? Perhaps, but the next generation has grown up with a tracked life and finds the idea of Big Brother rather quaint.

Rust belt renewal In an expensive resource-scare world, the US economy is benefitting from a resurgence of local manufacture and agriculture. Increasingly, people self-organise to satisfy their needs, seeking out strong connections close to home, sharing and making what they can. Anonymous peer-to-peer transactions make it easy for consumers to buy direct, cutting out the middle man of retail.

In this scenario, will brands become redundant, or will they work much harder to add value in a community of makers? Might they play a role in overseeing and regulating resource use?

“You can do this yourself, but we’ll help make sure you can do it again tomorrow…”

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october 2014

a s : So do you see a role for brands beyond

The no-brand challenge

communication?

d h : What I think agencies have not done is keep in touch with developing thinking around human behaviour: how the mind works and the rules of thumb of how people tend to react in different situations. Which means that the broader range of ways in which you might influence someone’s behaviour, which is fundamentally what marketers are trying to

as: So you’re interested in a creating a

Brands are sleepwalking into a completely changed future

do, has been often ignored.

a s : Has concern about the scientific credibility of neuromarketing put agencies off?

d h : Yes, I think that’s right. When I worked in advertising everyone thought that we had David Hall tells Anna Simpson why rugby matches and piggy backs are the future for social change.

david ha l l : Many brands are sleepwalking into a completely changed future, armed with old tools. It’s hard to keep track of all the disciplines: marketing, advertising, PR and so on. Many of those things are not necessarily the answer any more.

a nna sim p son: Are there any new tried and tested new methods?

d h: Agencies have always been very good at consumer insight, but there are barriers for that insight to get implemented in a meaningful way. One is that agencies tend to operate as a relay race rather than a rugby match. The person who comes up with the insight passes it on to the creative people, who come up with a piece of advertising and so on. So there’s often a mismatch between the creative and strategic thinking and how that gets turned into a piece of communication. The second barrier is that marketing of all types still sits essentially in a world of communication, which is no longer such a powerful tool.

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all these clever ways of getting people to do stuff. Actually that couldn’t have been further from the truth. The stuff I’m talking about is less psychologically derived it’s more that whole world of nudge, and a lot of it’s about social norms.

a s : Can you give an example? d h : In Leicester, we recruited a group of ambassadors to encourage people to take the bus. We worked with local radio stations and we also did some on the ground engagement.

We had street teams, the kind of people who would try to get you to give money to charity, and we deployed them in strategic places where people might be feeling a bit negative about their car journey: car parks, petrol stations, people stuck in traffic jams. We got the route from the council where traffic wardens were going, and followed them round as well. We basically spoke to people who might have been thinking, “Actually taking the car wasn’t a smart move today”.

We offered them a free ticket to try the bus next time. But to validate the ticket they had to fill in the contact details and tick the form of the transport they would have taken otherwise that day.

setting the scene

common culture around energy use?

dh : Yes, but we’re deliberately trying not to create a new branding space. I think that would be quite unhelpful. Finding the right word for what we’re doing is very difficult.

At various different times we’ve called it a linking mechanism or a platform; campaign isn’t the right word either, with connotations of political activism. It’s basically a set of shared messages and some materials and

as: Was there any evidence of lasting change from that campaign?

dh : There was. We ran a test against those involved four weeks after, and found that a significant people who had never used the bus, or rarely, before the promotion had taken the bus again since.

as: You’re working with some fairly big brands – Kingfisher and John Lewis – on a project relating to home energy efficiency.

What’s in it for them?

dh : The fundamental reason for them to engage with the energy project is a deeply commercial and rational one. Essentially in energy, there is a very clear business case for a wide range of organiz ations to invest in growing the market for energy

content. We think we’ve got a new name now which is The Energy Vision, but that’s not a consumer facing name: it’s for our partners to talk about it. The name, the website, certain areas like that become quite contentious because partners like to sign up to something identifiable and they like to belong to something, but they don’t necessarily want to divert people away from their own journey.

as: You mean they want the value of shared messages, without the brand?

dh : There was a time where every initiative had to be a brand. It limited the potential of

David Hal l is Founder and Executive Director of the social enterprise Behaviour Change. During a 13 year career in advertising, he created a series of step-changing campaigns, including a multi-award-winning strategy for Skoda that helped transform perceptions of a car that had long been the butt of jokes.

the future of brands

some of those ideas. Of course, we are relying on the power and trust of the brands we are working with in order to get messages to their customers and supporters.

efficiency. In the case of Kingfisher selling LED light bulbs or loft insulation, or John Lewis selling efficient appliances, it’s in their interest for those markets to be vibrant and dynamic and growing. Our initial research demonstrated that there were barriers to consumers engaging with energy efficiency and energy control which were too significant for one organisation or one sector to tackle alone – but that needed tackling to unleash huge benefits for everyone, such as a lack of understanding of the benefits and how to make the most of them. We are helping to create consistency in how we talk about energy control. Using less, wasting less and spending less is fundamentally the three things we are asking people to think about.

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the future of brands

october 2014

setting the scene

wa r by pa r k er : ‘Try it and see’ model for designer eyewear Traditional retail stores and opticians buy and sell designer glasses with expensive price tags.

Founded in 2010, this carbon-neutral American eyewear company has built a sisable and loyal

Who to watch

customer base through an e-commerce business model based on user testing. It produces its own designer eyewear that can be purchased at affordable prices (around US $95 a pair) via their

x i a omi : Affordable quality

website. Customers are offered a free ‘Home Try-On’ service that allows them to choose up

electronics meets social media Chinese electronics company Xiaomi focuses on developing cheap, high-quality products for the lower-middle market. Its recent unprecedented success in Asia is epitomised

FOUR BRANDS REDEFINING THEIR MARKET

by its innovative marketing model. Xiaomi

incentive for consumers motivated both by value and by ethics: for every pair sold, another is donated to those without the means to buy. The combination of quality, affordability, values, a dynamic user interface, and sheer style has won the brand loyalty and recommendations in a highly competitive market. scale? One million glasses sold.

offers periodic online flash sales to increase desirability: its second of this kind in India sold out in just 4.5 seconds. Money generated from these sales and subsequent software downloads is then invested into first-class components and upgrades rather than advertising. Xiaomi uses Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter,

text Rob Greenfield

to five pairs of glasses to try on for five days. This flexible sales model comes with a charitable

to attract new customers. Engaging online forums help to convert one-time users into loyal fans. Wechat is then used for instant customer support. Registered forum users listed on ‘Me Fan’, the brand’s database, are given the opportunity to vote for ideas and review new software and product releases.

This way, Xiaomi treats consumers as valuable assets in the creation and promotion of a product. scale? Xiaomi sold more smartphones than Apple in China last year (4.4 million).

a ma z on p r i me: Drone delivery for seamless online sales Amazon has massively diversified its sales in recent years: it started out with books in 1998, and now sells everything from necklaces to groceries. Now it aims to provide customers with the quickest, hassle-free shopping experience online, using all available mediums.

Amazon Prime Air, a 30-minute drone-drop delivery system is set to take to the skies by 2015, building on offers such as 1-Click orders and same or next day deliveries. Membership of its two-day delivery policy, Amazon Prime, grew substantially in 2012 – largely due to free trial memberships being offered with each purchase of their biggest seller, the Kindle Fire. The next

It’s an approach that values the consumer’s time

version, the Kindle Fire HDX, comes with an instant tech support feature. It’s an approach that values the consumer’s time, whether or not the product is worth the ever shorter wait… scale? RBC Capital estimates Amazon Prime has 50 million members globally.

beyon d meat:

Love meat? Eat this instead

Most meat alternative brands cater for vegetarians or vegans. Rather than settle for the American $600 million meat alternative market, Beyond Meat aims to break into the $180 billion meat market instead. It is boldly offering plant-based substitutes to meat lovers with the promise that it’s just as tasty as animal protein, with health benefits. The company prides itself in engineering its products to look, taste, and feel like meat with every bite, rejecting the notion that something is ‘missing’ from their products. Instead, its newest burger ‘The Beast’ is marketed as a nutritional powerhouse with more iron and protein than beef and more omegas than salmon. scale? The company claims to produce enough chicken replicas to save 1.5 million chickens a year.

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WILL BRANDS TAKE SIDES ON THE CIVIC PLAYING FIELD?

C

onsumers are asking more questions of brands and taking the implications seriously: how they are made, and by whom, matters as much as the product spec. A Nielsen Global Survey of Corporate Citisenship in 2013 found that 50% of consumers round the world said they were willing to pay more for goods and services from socially responsible companies. That is an increase of 5% since 2011.

They may not all act as they say, but this rise in social engagement stretches beyond consumption, and has wider implications for how brands behave in society. According to a World Economic Forum report on Engaging Tomorrow’s Consumers, ‘Millennials’ – those born 1981-1995, now 25% of the global population – are looking to business to get involved with societal issues. >

Brand stand

art Alexander Kosolapov

civic engagement

the future of brands [ 1 ] csrwire.com/press_releases/36215-From-ObligationTo-Desire-2-5-Billion-Aspirational-Consumers-MarkShift-in-Sustainable-Consumption

> Overlapping with the millennials is the class of ‘aspirationals’ – the 2.5 billion empowered, young, urban shoppers with rising incomes, and the largest consumer segment in Brazil, China and India. They care about style and status, but also have an interest in collective action, and they like to see change catalysed by the companies they do business with. According to a Globescan study in 2013, reported in Rethinking Consumption: Consumers and the Future of Sustainability1 agree that we need to moderate consumption to improve the environment.

Tapping into these mixed sentiments is not straightforward. Two thirds of millennials say they would like it to be easier to identify companies that are “doing good”. But at the same time they are likely to be confused about sustainability, and do not feel they can trust companies’ claims. They want evidence, both about products and the organisations that deliver them.

They have no particular loyalties to the majority of brands as they have existed in the past. Havas Media’s report Meaningful Brands in 2013 found that most people wouldn’t care if 73% of brands disappeared.

The Futures Company also cautions that surveys indicating good intentions can be misleading. In a 2012 report How to Sustain Sustainability? it stresses that actual choices may be driven by other priorities: “Sustainability initiatives have to play more directly to consumer benefits, providing reward for the consumer first and society and the environment second to reach beyond the engaged niche to the mainstream.”

The Rainforest Alliance, in a 2014 report calling for a “new sustainability narrative”, goes further. It claims that “Sustainability doesn’t mean anything real to consumers. Too often, it brings to mind technical issues or seemingly insurmountable environmental challenges.” However, it is optimistic that this can be dealt with, and that’s because more consumers than ever want to “live meaningfully and engage brands with purpose”.

The challenge is finding the most effective ways to help them do that.

october 2014

civic engagement

Pressure gauge CIVIL SOCIETY IS CALLING ON BRANDS, SAYS SALLY UREN Brands are coming under pressure from civil society. People are waking up to the reality of climate change, resource scarcity, civil unrest and conflict, and beginning to ask, what are brands doing about this? NGOs are channelling this pressure. Oxfam’s campaign ‘Behind the Brands’ tells consumers, “The world’s largest food and beverage companies have a lot of power – but you have more.”

While governments around the world dither and fall short of their Millennium Development Goals, civil society is marching, signing petitions, and asking brands to step up. Some already are – like Grameen Danone, forged in 2006 by the yoghurt brand and the people’s bank to provide children in Bangladesh with key nutrients missing from their diet.

The strength of brands is that they can capture the imagination and create an emotional connection, which is generally the

>> Will future societies look to brands for civic stewardship?

precursor to changing perceptions and then behaviour. We’re beginning to see ‘super-hero’ brands: those that don’t just want to clear up their own mess, to change their external environment through innovation, creative collaborations, and influencing policy. Unilever’s Lifebuoy has always had this mission.

If corporates are to achieve any degree of social transformation, marketing departments need to be on side. Sustainability metrics are being incorporated into standard business performance metrics. Very soon a marketer’s primary KPI won’t just be stuff sold: there will be KPIs on the type of goods and services, who they were sold to, and even ‘in kind’ services transacted.

Brands will answer to society.

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the future of brands

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civic engagement

as: Is this sort of engagement seen as a marketing investment, or philanthropy?

Signs of change

Colour for communities

db: The former. I think a lot of brand strategists believe in the importance of the social dimensions of the brand, but most of these projects don’t come from that angle.

For many brands, it’s still a transactional thing: if we’re going to invest money in this activity, we need to see some payback. You can get a lot from the PR side of it without

mood swing

having to advertise. Sometimes, the activity

The impact of colour upon our mood is the driver behind the Let’s Colour project, an initiative developed by Akzonobel brand Dulux. By transforming grey and unappealing spaces into bright and colourful environments, the project

results from a corporate imperative, which is more philanthropic: for instance, the CEO believes it’s important. But then, if the CEO leaves,the impetus goes also.

buy partisan

oil-free paint

Even a few years ago it would have sounded

Public backlash against BP’s funding of Tate,

like science fiction, but a new app has been

which houses the UK’s national art collection,

launched that allows consumers to find out

is raising questions about the ethics of

in seconds companies’ political donations and

funding partnerships. Do poorly aligned

affiliations.

missions have such a significant impact on

marketers are not always drawing

the art lover’s experience as to outweigh the

connections more widely than to the sales.

financial benefits for the museum?

In all of our key countries we track our

Buy Partisan has been developed by the US-based firm Spend Consciously. Using the

aims to bring happiness to the lives of thousands of individuals. Specifically, by 2020, Dulux aims to have ‘coloured the lives’ of one million people around the world. So far, the brand has donated 674,629 litres of paint to community painting schemes across the world, including Community Repaint and DDC Colouring the Community, supported by the Let’s Colour Fund.

as: Is that because it’s not easy to relate the value back to the business model?

db: There will be a way, if you design a measurement to do it. Unfortunately,

smartphone’s camera, it scans a product’s

Protests concerning the sponsorship

barcode, which then reports back on the

began around 2003, but more recently, the

political spending of the company in question.

issue gained momentum following the BP

At present the app can only scan barcodes made

Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Over 8,000

by the Fortune 250 companies, though there is

people signed a petition in 2011 calling for

anna simpson: Are there commercial

This is something we’re working with Forum

potential to expand that number further.

the Tate to end BP’s sponsorship of the

reasons for brands to take on a greater role in

for the Future to understand.

gallery. Further controversy followed when

society?

in North America and Europe are enormous.

public requests were made for the Tate to

david brunt: Dulux does a lot of

as: Do these activities relate in any clear way

Companies would be unable to espouse one

disclose the sum of money it was receiving

engagement at a community level. In Brazil,

to the mission of the brand?

thing in their advertising yet donate to a

from BP. Its withholding of this information

it really is core to the brand. Dulux sees

db: I think so. The brand is more than the

‘contradictory’ political cause behind the scenes.

fuelled the opposition. Campaigners believe

the synergy between community and social

physical colour: it’s about engaging people

Brands that promote themselves as ethical

that the sum of money given to the Tate

transformation and the development of the

with their surroundings, and transforming

would have to be scrupulously watertight.

by BP is far less than most people would

brand. The resonance from campaigns even

communities. I think when people buy a

imagine. In fact, they believe it is as little

translates into normal marketing measures,

brand they want to feel good about it. So, if

as 0.4% of the Tate’s annual budget.

such as ‘top of mind’ indicators. At a higher

you can have a more thorough impact, then

The implications for brand strategy both

Leonie Nimmo, Director of Ethical Consumer Magazine gives it a tentative welcome. “If the information is robust it could revolutionise

The issue brings to the fore an increasing

Anna Simpson asks David Brunt about the brand value of social impact

impacts relating to social benefits. The question might be whether the metrics are appropriate to measure the deliverables from that activity: do the numbers tell us enough?

level, the rationale for ‘Let’s Colour’ or

customers will think, “This brand isn’t just

the way people shop and think. Theoretically,

public pressure placed upon organisations to

‘Tu Decor’ is that colour can actually have

selling me stuff, but is consistently helping

it could prompt brands to tighten up their

ensure that their sponsorship and partnerships

an impact on wellbeing. You work with the

me transform my community”. There’s a

ethical stance. But political donations are only

reflect the image and ideals of the organisation.

community to brighten up a place, and that

depth of association for that brand: you’re

one category to look at; there are also issues like

For sponsorship to work well, it needs to

may seem superficial, but bringing people

known as that metaphor for transformation,

workers’ rights, tax avoidance, pollution and

be meaningful. The importance of this

together creates a lot of dynamic interaction.

and that leads to greater loyalty.

toxic waste. It sounds great but you would need

is heightened when a company’s social license

Dulux also trains people in that community

more information to get the full picture.”

to operate is in question.

to paint, so they can then sell their skills –

– Will Simpson

– Jessica Naylor

which of course relates back to sales.

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David Brunt is Global Environment and Sustainability Director at Akzonobel

TWO INDICATORS OF A SHIFT IN BRANDS' SOCIAL ROLE

the future of brands

october 2014

civic engagement protection. Its Switched On Families Playbook is an engaging digital parenting tool that helps parents to engage their children with development-appropriate content and fun games.

‘Assertiveness’ is the fourth emotional operating system, and spans feelings of frustration and anger to power and achievement. Humans will go to incredible lengths for peak experiences of freedom, victory and epic wins. While many marketers would assume a conflict exists between these kinds

By exploring what neuroscientists call the four primal emotional

of motivations and sustainability, Nike proves this isn’t the case.

operating systems, we have mapped a broader range of the

The ‘values victory’ strategy can be seen in the Nike Better

human motivations that brands seek to resonate with.

World platform: “Making athletes faster, stronger, better with

The Brand Substance Wayfinder enables any brand to identify

less impact. That’s not sustainable. That’s unstoppable.”

which of the 12 motivation states it best fits with and points to a corresponding Brand Substance strategy to create social

Brands have embraced the full spectrum of human motivation

or environmental value in a way that’s consistent with their

for some time. The ‘Brand Substance Wayfinder’ shows

brand story.

that sustainability can do the same, and positively channel motivations like toughness, individuality, a sense of adventure,

Within the ‘contentment’ zone, which spans feelings of fear

or even a desire for power, to engage consumers in creating

and anxiety to security and safety, respect for tradition and

positive change.

quality are well-worn paths in brand marketing. Levi Strauss frame up their sustainability strategy around being ‘guided opportunities for more authentic engagement. The ‘authentic roots’ strategy is exemplified by the Levi’s ‘Go Forth‘ campaign

James Payne is Strategy Director at Given, which brings together brand strategy, marketing innovation, behaviour change and sustainability consulting. For more information about the Brand Substance Wayfinder and additional case studies that bring the twelve strategies to life, go to www.givenlondon.com/wayfinder

Beyond nice

by the same values since its founding in 1863’, which creates

drawing on its heritage using the ‘new frontier’ of regenerating the US rust-belt as the focus of a $2 million commitment

JAMES PAYNE REVEALS A TOOL TO HELP

to rejuvenate the town of Braddock with urban farms and

ANY BRANDS FIND THEIR PURPOSE

community-building investment.

One of the things I hear most often from marketers is that they

‘Nurturance’ is the second emotional operating system and

struggle to connect their corporate sustainability efforts with

spans feelings of separation, distress and panic to connection

what their brands stand for.

and care. Brands that stand for being caring, nurturing and honourable usually find it easier to integrate creating positive

Integrating social or environmental value into marketing is too

change into their marketing activity. That said, brands in the

often seen as a niche idea that only makes sense for ‘nice’ brands

banking sector that should stand for being trustworthy have

like Innocent or TOMS – brands that have social purpose ‘baked-

seen a huge disconnect between their brand image marketing

in’ from the very beginning. As a result, there’s a dominance of

and the reality of recent banking scandals. The way the recently

sustainability-led communications that focus on care, harmony

demerged TSB bank is attempting to build trust as a local,

and gentle collaboration – something I call the ‘sustainability

community bank exemplifies a ‘deeper caring’ strategy.

story-rut’. But this narrow focus excludes much of the spectrum of human motivation. And with it, a huge range of brands.

The third emotional operating system is called ‘seeking’, and spans feelings of boredom to playfulness and curiosity.

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So if you are a brand like Lynx, Louis Vuitton or Hugo Boss,

The ‘play with purpose’ strategy can be seen in the way that

how can you create social value in a way that supports what

Virgin Media stayed true to its ‘make it fun’ brand-value,

your brand stands for?

even when addressing a serious issue like online child

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Play time

art Ron English

creative engagement

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN ARTISTS, TECHNOLOGISTS, MAKERS AND BRANDS MEET?

W

ill brand strategy move of business school into the creative industries?

The fence that kept brands on one side and consumers on the other is down. Today, if your audience didn’t help you make it, they’re not interested. The idea, design, funding, manufacture and distribution can all be co-developed.

Which means everyone is peering over into each other’s patch. Sweeping privacy and property issues for a moment, this could be a good thing. A 2014 report from BT’s Better Future Forum, ‘Making Waves – The Rising Tide of >

the future of brands

[ 1 ] www.foresightalliance.com/2014/08/29/ future-of-brands-2030-crowd-defined-brands

> data for social good’, suggests that, “Transparency through technology such as apps, social media and connected smart devices enable new consumption models and more sustainable habits to thrive. These can deliver value which is shared and experienced rather than owned. The sharing economy – which makes the most of social connections – can be a disruptive business model for reducing consumption at scale”.

The 2014 Foresight Alliance report, Crowd-Defined Brands1, which looks ahead to 2030, anticipates that brand will be continually evolve and refine themselves in response to consumer feedback. Data analytics are already honing brands’ capacity to respond to consumer wish-lists, which may or may not reduce unwanted consumption.

Other disciplinary fences are also falling. From universities to professions, and from text books to museums, specialisms are increasingly multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral. Perhaps tomorrow’s brand strategists will also be artists, technologists, teachers and urban developers – marked out for success by their ability to think big, challenge current assumptions, and find value in unexpected places…

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creative engagement

Co-creating the future COLLABORATIVE DESIGN AND CO-CREATION PROJECTS ARE REDEFINING THE WAY BRANDS WORK Tapping into a vibrant community of creative consumers can deliver big rewards for brands. The ingenuity and feedback provided by a vast global customer base has allowed many household names to go beyond focus groups and target niches, generating new fans with an enhanced sense of ownership and loyalty.

This kind of collaborative creation can reduce the development costs and risks associated with new product lines. According to Brian Millar, Drector of Strategy at Sense Worldwide, a co-creation consultancy that has worked with Nike, PepsiCo, Converse and other big brands, no in-house R&D department can keep up with the current pace of change: “The smartest companies have learned to turn to their most creative consumers for inspiration and ideas.”

For consumers, the rewards of creative engagement with a brand vary from a more personalised level of interaction, through to shaping its development, or even financial rewards in the case of those who co-create new products. Through the Lego Ideas Platform, for instance, Lego enthusiasts are invited to submit and vote for new Lego designs. Those that clear an initial review and receive 10,000 votes from the community are evaluated by a Lego product team before becoming part of the brand’s portfolio of products; the person who originally came up with the idea receives 1% of the total net sales of the new design. Often these designs are available to buy within six months, rather than the two to three years it takes for in-house examples to reach the shelves.

Of course, not everyone has the time or desire to lend their skills to an advertising campaign or product development competition, and brands must avoid overloading those who do with requests for their input. Millar advises that good co-creation projects require “commitment, honesty and an appetite for discomfort” from the brand.

Duncan Jefferies is a freelance writer and editor specialising in digital futures

>> Will brand strategy move out of business schools into the creative industries?

But for many, the inspiration, innovation and deeper customer engagement that co-creation projects can foster make them more than worth the effort.

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the future of brands

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creative engagement

i b m ’s t h i n k Outside the Lincoln Centre in New York,

Brands meet art

a 123-foot wall swarming with colour, first opened in 2011, grabbed the attention of passers-by. The temporary display illustrated

FIVE BRANDS LOOK TO ART FOR INSPIRATION

text Jessica Naylor

mini me e ts de ze e n

s e l f ri dg es : t h e f es t i va l o f i m a g i n at i on In the opening months of 2014, the world-

A car engineered from biological materials mutates and evolves through the process of human

renowned windows of Selfridges’ London store

design to suit localised conditions. It’s a bit like a car putting on a raincoat, then swapping

took a look inside the mind. Why? To explore

it for shades when the sun comes out. This is designer Alexandra Daisy Ginsberg’s response

the power of imagination to drive the process

to The Future of Mobility, an arts project commissioned by mini in a year-long collaboration

of innovation and inform the shape of our

with design magazine dezeen. Ginsberg took her interest in synthetic biology and materials

future, so the luxury retail store proclaimed.

and fused it with art, science and engineering. Her piece is comprised of 112 handmade model

man a, an interactive window controlled via

cars, all part of a diverse model ecosystem which imagines a shift in the way we recycle and

an app, explored the relationship between man

repair our vehicles. Six designers took part in the project, all showcased online. There is a

and environment: dazzle-camouflaged figures

chamber which prepares the body for space travel, a world in which augmented reality is used

were visible only with the help of technology.

to superimpose traffic information onto our own individual maps, and a colourful car made from

Artist Agatha Haines designed External

stained glass. Yes, glass. Its creator, Dominic Wilcox, took inspiration from the rise of automated

Brain, a huge head with an outside extension

cars. You can use any material you like to build cars if they aren’t going to touch each other!

investigating how parasitic prosthesis may in the future regulate our bodies. A double-bass-

the potential for solar power on the city’s

t ige r t rans lat e

rooftops, using a colour-coded map. It also

An arts and music festival run by the Asia

tracked the amount of water leaking from the

Pacific Breweries brand Tiger Beer aims

Delaware Aqueduct, and visualised incoming

to showcase the best of Asian talent and foster

data charting traffic flow and air quality in the

collaborations between artists from around the

surrounding area. If you had any doubt about

globe. The festival exposes revellers to exciting

the potential of sensors and data mapping

forms of art by combining different cultures

to change the way that we live, a glance up

and artistic styles in an ongoing celebration

would probably have quelled it. Developed

of multicultural creativity. One focus is Tiger

by ibm, the think exhibit connected

Translate Streets, which showcases the street

technological advancements to the daily

art of Asia. Twelve artists were given six days

lives of its audience, using an immersive

to create graffiti with the theme ‘Pulse of the

film displayed over 40 screens offering an

Megacity’ at a live event in 2013 in Ulaanbaatar,

interactive touch screen experience. The

the capital of Mongolia, to the sounds of a DJ.

aim was to inspire visitors to reflect on how

The theme continued with a virtual graffiti

technology can be used to create a more

project, which used photographs of buildings

sustainable and efficient world. In 2013,

in Asia’s big cities as canvases for the latest

think was opened at Innoventions West

in graphic design. Engaging with its audience

at Walt Disney World, Florida, and both an

through street art and live music has given the

app and lesson plans for visiting schools were

brand new resonance with a hip young crowd

developed to bring the same inspiration to

throughout Asia, thirsty for talent, inspiration

the next generation.

and new ideas.

turned-sailing ship designed by Nancy Fouts

i n t e l m e et s v i c e

invited the viewer to imagine the music

Floating nature towers offering new habitats for urban wildlife; clothing which translates

it might play. ‘Imagineers’ led discussions

the wearer’s movement into a soundtrack; 3D-printed earthquake data… Just three of the ideas

in the Imaginarium, a purpose built

showcased in an ongoing collaboration between information giants Intel and global media outlet

amphitheatre designed by architect Rem

vice. The Creators Project aims to illustrate and help foster the endless possibilities that can

Koolhaas. Of course, there was a sales element

be achieved when art and technology collide – and, of course, to make the semiconductor

to it all. Throughout, The Imagine Shop

chip just that little bit cooler. Founded in 2010, the project is a platform for global creative

was at the forefront of futuristic retail with

expression. An online blog, videos and YouTube channel keep the audience engaged and up

3D printers and printed glasses, a virtual

to date with developments in the art world. Users can glimpse behind the scenes of recent

watch shop and – resonating with Selfridges’

music videos and browse features on the latest in boundary-breaking art and design. A short

commitment to luxury – an augmented-reality

documentary showing how art and science collide in the work of Harvard chemical botanists

model of Zaha Hadid’s £300 million yacht: the

who create miniscule floral structures from crystals is one of many to help The Creators

most expensive item the store has put on sale.

Project reach 250 million video views. There’s more offline. Chris Milk’s The Treachery of Sanctuary engaged participants who used their bodies to interact with digitally altered shadows projected onto 30-foot panels. Through such platforms, Intel aims to engage a younger, artistic demographic and one which pushes the limits of technology for creative purposes, gaining valuable input for fresh advances.

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the future of brands

october 2014

Visual understanding

creative engagement

Why do you draw?

structure what I’d expect to eventually have in

What does it mean to be a designer?

I draw to freely explore possibilities. I draw

Illustrator software, but on paper. Isn’t drawing

To be a designer you have to find new ways

to visually understand what I am thinking.

already ‘design’ in these phases? I think so.

to attract attention through new languages,

I draw to evaluate my ideas and intuitions

products and solutions that – besides being functional and appropriate – must

to help my mind thinking without limitations,

What impact would you most like to have through your drawings?

without boundaries.

I don’t draw to have an impact, I draw for

no universal answers to ‘how’ one does that.

by seeing them coming to life on paper. I draw

be magnetic and surprising. There are

myself. My drawings are never final pieces.

I think that I would simply say that it’s

Drawing plays an important role in the

I think this is something very personal.

important not to leave any possibilities

production and communication of knowledge,

The most important impact I want my

unexplored; and that it’s important to pursue

and in the genesis of new ideas. It illustrates

drawings to have is to lead me towards new,

logical solutions while freely letting the

how instinctively our perception is directed

unexpected and beautiful visual design

imagination flow.

towards finding meaning in things, recognising

solutions, to create powerful and unusual visual

things. The act of drawing, and the very fact

compositions with data. In fact, I really want

Sometimes a great idea can come unexpectedly.

we choose to stop and draw, demands focus

our work to be accurate, but beautiful and

Free explorations in design can lead to

TALKS ABOUT DRAWING, DESIGN AND THE IMPORTANCE OF NOT LEAVING

and attention. I use drawing as my primary

disruptive to a certain extent.

insights and epiphanies that cannot be always

ANY POSSIBILITY UNEXPLORED

expression, as a sort of functional tool for

GIORGIA LUPI, INFORMATION DESIGNER AND CO-FOUNDER OF ACCURAT,

Do you see yourself as part of a data visualisation movement?

What I always do when I start every kind

For me, drawing is also an obsession: I always

What drives me is the search for multiple

inspired by the world around me, while having

carry pens, pencils and paper in any situation.

ways to create unexpected, beautiful things in

the ‘brief’ in mind. I spend a great amount

I cannot think about a project without a pen and

a way that can accurately represent complex

of time looking for visual inspiration, which

some paper. Drawing is my way to understand

systems of information. More generally, I think

I carefully organise on Pinterest.

that I had an idea in the first place. Besides,

there are many reasons for the popularity of

I take an incredible pleasure in tracing lines

data visualisations. People are exposed to an

on paper and seeing abstract shapes come alive.

increasing stream of content from many sources;

What advice would you give to someone who can’t draw?

bright and catchy images such as infographics

There is a lot of freedom in drawing; sometimes

When does drawing become design?

fit perfectly into this media diet, playing with

this freedom can scare and paralyse you.

I see design as a way to translate a structural

hierarchies to provide multiple levels of possible

Complete freedom is never very good for

concept for a specific audience, through a

readings within a single piece. Of course, the

coming up with truly disruptive ideas.

specific medium. It is also the process of visual

proliferation of a number of easy-to-use and

planning and organising the choices made

free tools has made the creation of infographics

Even in my personal project I set constraints.

along the way of a project, given the specific

available to a large segment of the population,

What I would suggest is to start with a topic

boundaries of it. Drawing becomes design when

even non-experts.

you want to explore (or redraw), and some

capturing and exploring thoughts.

Giorgia Lupi is an information designer and researcher.

She is Co-founder and Design Director at Accurat, an information design company based in Milan and New York. accurat.it giorgialupi.net @giorgialupi

anticipated with a rational design approach. of project is allow myself to have time to get

you start tracing lines that help you rationalise

rules for the final output, and then just start.

what you think, and envision a possible solution.

And do it again. And do it again.

When it comes to designing data visualisations, I see three phases. One is understanding the

Draw for yourself, not for anybody else.

macro categories to start sketching the first

And approach drawing less scientifically, more

visual possibilities to organise the data, its

naively.

‘architecture’. Then I focus on the singular elements, the entry points, to figure out which

I draw without any prejudice: letting my hand

shapes, colours and features we might invent

go freely, without asking if it makes sense for

to represent the sub-categories. Finally, we

the project in that very moment. Then I look at what I’ve drawn and decide whether to work on it, engaging this loop between thoughts, paper and sight.

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the future of brands

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creative engagement

Talking shop art Giorgia Lupi

THE INTERNET OF THINGS WILL TRANSFORM

Will the internet of things drive radical change?

BRAND-CUSTOMER RELATIONS, SAYS ANDY HOBSBAWM A tectonic technology shift is underway as the physical world becomes part of the web. Our real and virtual lives are merging, powered by smart net-connected chips and mobile devices.

The principle that products are inherently more useful and

DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES CAN EMPOWER PEOPLE

desirable when they come with personalised digital services that

TO UNDERSTAND CHALLENGES AND MEET THEIR OWN NEEDS,

expand and enhance the owner experience will soon be applied

SAYS HUGH KNOWLES

across all categories. The technological building blocks required to deliver dynamic services are now in place and have passed the tipping point in terms of cost. The global market opportunity

Digital technologies can help drive genuinely radical systemic

represented by the Internet of Things has been estimated

change in two basic ways. One is by changing the structure of

at $19 trillion by Cisco’s CEO.

information flows – new information, simplifying complex data, making the invisible visible, and so allowing people to make

The real game-changer is smartphones, which function

new decisions in new ways. The other is by providing people with

as a set of handheld digital sensors for the physical world

platforms to self-organise.

(accelerometer, proximity, ambient light, compass, gyros, GPS) with a range of in-built connectivity. These devices we carry

Connecting things does not make the world smart – it makes

around with us constantly have more computing power than

it full of information and this does not result in understanding

was needed to launch the first Apollo space missions.

or change. The acquisition and sharing of new information reaches its full potential when it meets a clear need and can

For brands, the global rise of smartphones represents

marketing operations smarter by gaining real-time analytics about every product interaction.

Already, there’s a growing range of web-connected products on the market. The Philips Hue LED bulbs let consumers create a personalised mood lighting system controlled with app.

Rolls-Royce has embedded jet engines with sensors that not only transmit real-time data about their condition, allowing them to be monitored and maintained remotely, but means the engine usage can be metered on a thrust-per-second basis and sold on a subscription-based pricing model.

This is only the start. Smart products can allow consumers

not have done before. For example, at the Internet of Things

to access the kind of real-time, socially-connected web

Academy we are building mobile, accurate air quality devices

experiences they’ve come to expect in their daily lives.

to help people change behaviour to avoid pollution hotspots

What does it mean for a brand if their product can talk to their

and to create a new data set that can be used to lobby for change.

customer? What stories can it share? What advice on sustainable use might it offer? Already, we ask search engines questions,

We are interested in how citizens and communities are going

and follow people we may never have met on social networks.

to gain power and insight over their challenges, rather than have

Is it really any different to engage with a smart and responsive

smart solutions imposed on them. Whether big brands can play

object – in effect, to ‘friend’ our stuff?

a supportive role in this remains to be seen.

Product Relationship Management™ – brands leveraging physical products as owned digital media to super-charge the consumer experience in exchange for a rich stream of transaction and usage data – will leave no product or industry unchanged. To remain competitive, all product companies will have to think about technologies that bridge the real and virtual worlds to provide smart digital services through the physical things they make.

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Hugh Knowles is Head of Innovation at Forum for the Future and Director at Internet of Things Academy.

connections with customers, and make their business and

provide people with the opportunity to act in way they could

Andy Hobsbawm is a Founder and the Chief Marketing Officer of Web of Things software company EVRYTHNG, and a Trustee of Forum for the Future.

a tremendous opportunity to form direct, ongoing digital

HOW CLOSELY CAN BRANDS ENGAGE WITH OUR INTERNAL LIVES?

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orth around $1.5 trillion a year, employing more than 25 million people, and fashion-conscious or not, an information-rich culture and a world of big data leads to an expectation that organisations can tailor their offerings more closely to individuals.

This may be especially important in areas related to personal well-being and physical health. The same digital technologies that allow access to data about companies and support social media trawls also lend themselves to personal monitoring – giving brands like Nike Plus a window on the ‘quantified self ’. Wearable technologies and implants allow people to monitor exercise, blood pressure, heart rate, and even blood chemicals. Apps make it easy to keep tabs on eating, sleeping and physical activity. These are likely to combine with >

Personal touch

art Ron English

personal engagement

the future of brands

> personal analyses of genes (through cheap, individual gene profiling) and, potentially, profiles of personal microbial consortia, in the gut and elsewhere.

At the same time, the things we consume are blurring traditional boundaries that separated sustenance from medication. In Singapore, a high-street store now promises the ‘right diet for your blood group’.

Neutraceuticals are a growth industry, and already big business. Accenture Life Sciences forecasts a market in consumer healthcare, valued at $502 billion in 2013 rising to $737 billion within five years.

There’s also a growing market for self-optimisation and amplification, through grafts, extensions and brain-computer interfaces. This raises all sorts of questions about what it means to be human. As Steve Fuller says, “it’s not so much that we’ve been losing our humanity but that it’s becoming projected or distributed across things that lack a human body”.

Personal health concerns are reinforced by an ageing population, which affects millennials as they gear up to care for their parents or grandparents, with a shift from acute, infectious illness to chronic disease, and an increasing burden from conditions such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular problems and obesity.

Current attention is turning to the human microbiome – now subject to intense scientific scrutiny. This is reinforcing established interest in boosting ‘good’ bacteria through probiotics (food and drinks providing live bacteria) – and prebiotics (food that supplies nutrients for microbes, especially in the gut). Brands combine rather general promises with packaging that supplies a convenient daily dose – as with Danone and Yakult.

Combine such promises with more detailed information about, say, personal genomes, and the human microbiome, and we have the advent of designer innards.

RnRMarketResearch forecasts rapid growth in the microbiome market.

Currently, Asia-Pacific is the market leader for probiotics, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 7.0% from 2013 to 2018, according to Transparency Market Research. Here, China and Japan dominate the market revenue for probiotics, with India and other regions also showing significant growth. Europe is another key consumer of probiotic products, with consumer awareness levels much higher than in North America.

Will we look to brands for internal make-overs, just as we have for our faces and fashions? Trust is of the essence, and sharing reliable information about a product remains a challenge for key systems, from food to clothing [see ‘Gutter oil’, p. 37 and ‘Trust and traceability’, p. 39].

>> Is this the advent of designer innards?

october 2014

personal engagement

Signs of change personal care: a syste ms approach

gut ter oil alert

On 4 September, 2014, Target and Walmart

markets. Appetite for trusted sources grew

no more sleeping at the wheel

following crises such as China’s 2008 milk

An in-car monitoring system has been

USA, facilitated by Forum for the Future.

scandal, in which infant formula was found

developed by researchers at the Instituto

It brought together retailers, brands, chemical

to contain the protein adulteration melamine;

de Biomecánica in Valencia (IBV) that could

companies, academics, NGOs and other

the contamination affected 300,000 infants,

prevent fatigue-related car accidents and

stakeholders, to identify the top three action

of which six died.

potentially save thousands of lives.

areas to put the personal care sector on track

Safety underlies the attraction of established food brands to consumers in East Asian

Another recent food scandal has

The EU-backed project, named Harken,

co-hosted the first Beauty and Personal Care Products Sustainability Summit in Chicago,

for a sustainable future.

highlighted the need for brands to maintain

involves attaching a sensor to seat belts and

the strictest health and safety standards –

driving seat covers that tracks a driver’s

which demands alignment in chemical use

which involves building transparency into

heartbeat and respiration, an indicator of

and transparency. One action agreed during

supply chains.

fatigue and drowsiness. The team at IBV is

the summit was to make disclosure along

hoping to develop visual and audible warning

the supply chain easier and more consistent,

autumn festival of the moon, it emerged that

systems into Harken that will warn drivers

enabling stronger relationships and increasing

pineapple cakes and mooncakes – two popular

to take a break. Jose Solaz, IBV Innovation

willingness to share information. Participants

products – had been taken off the shelves due

Manager, describes Harken as a “powerful

also agreed to engage and educate consumers

to fears that they contained Taiwanese lard

tool” that will be beneficial, not just to car

on the science behind priority chemicals

that had been mixed with cooking oil illegally

manufacturers but also to health providers:

in a way that is meaningful and accessible.

‘recycled’ from the grease traps that collect

“The monitoring capacity is the key to develop

waste in sewers.

on-board systems that could diagnose health

was the waste and packaging sector - both

problems due to other causes, say age or drugs.”

its environmental impact and its inconsistent

In Taiwan and Hong Kong, during the mid-

By the middle of the month the scandal had moved to Singapore where other

“It’s a very positive step”, says Mark James,

First, there’s the chemical supply chain,

The second area identified for action

communications. The delegates agreed

Taiwanese snacks – not just mooncakes –

a journalist on the motoring website UK Car

to address disincentives to collaboration,

were being removed from supermarkets.

News. “But I’d say we’re likely to see high-end

looking at pre-competitive ways to develop

manufacturers – BMW, Jaguar etc – introduce

common processes, policies and metrics, and

it, before it enters the mass market.”

to make information available to consumers

In East Asia the high number of fake goods has meant consumers are generally not as trusting of brands as their European or North

He also predicted that a system like

in unbiased fashion.

American counterparts. Tackling corruption

Harken could have an impact on employers.

Building on consumer messaging,

and taking every possible step to ensure that

“If an employee has a fatigue-related accident

consumer behaviour was selected as the

a product is safe is essential for any brand

in a company car, then at present that

industry’s third priority. One action is to

after consumer confidence has been rocked.

company is liable. So the introduction of this

develop information that resonates on a

could well change that – and keep the human

personal level with consumers, helping them

resources guy out of prison.”

make better decisions and to buy more sustainable products.

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the future of brands

october 2014

Trust and traceability

WHAT WILL INNOVATIONS IN DATA COLLECTION MEAN FOR GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEMS?

art Craig Shaw

In 2013, Europeans were surprised to learn they had unknowingly been eating horse meat that had been sold to them as beef. While safe, eating horse meat is considered taboo in many parts of Europe, and the news became a scandal that revealed deep vulnerabilities in the food system.

The seafood industry suffers from similar problems. “Illegal, unregulated or unreported sources account for 7-15% of globally traded fish”, says Alistair Douglas, Partner at SmartAqua, an aquaculture, seafood and agribusiness advisory group. “And even then, legal fish sources aren’t necessarily sustainable.”

The drive to improve food systems will come from two directions: governments and consumers. “Governments will continue to focus on food illness, animal welfare and fraud”, says Brian Sterling, Managing Director of the Global Food Traceability Center. “But consumers are demanding better reporting of other metrics like nutrition, taste and source.”

Innovations in data collection and analysis are already giving consumers an unprecedented view of where their food comes from. A good example is the Fish Trax Marketplace, a platform that aggregates fishery data and provides a public interface. “It allows consumers to scan a QR code and see where their fish was caught, by which captain and on which boat”, says Douglas. “There are even videos.”

A more transparent food system also allows suppliers to identify efficiency improvements. That means suppliers who take food traceability seriously could doubly benefit, as they could significantly reduce their costs while improving their brand image among increasingly discerning customers. “Analytics could potentially help fishers optimise where, when and how they catch fish, thus reducing their costs, fuel consumption and carbon footprint while also providing a better service to customers”, says Douglas.

If suppliers are looking for inspiration, they don’t have to go far. Indices that measure and communicate the environmental credentials of consumer products have cropped up in sectors as diverse as electronics, textiles and tourism. Even the diamond trade – an industry traditionally fraught with opaque supply chains – has found a way to let some light through.

Diamonds mined under the Canadian Diamond Code of Conduct are etched with a recognisable logo – a polar bear – to prove that they have been responsibly sourced.

So what does the future hold for traceability in food systems? Sterling is optimistic.

“Traceability will move from something that individual organisations do to a more collaborative effort that involves the whole system”, he says. “And better access to information will benefit everyone along the chain.”

Michael Ashcroft is an innovation consultant who helps early-stage ventures get innovative low-carbon technologies to market.

text Michael Ashcroft

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personal engagement

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the future of brands

october 2014

personal engagement

PROFESSOR GEMMA CALVERT DISCUSSES NEUROMARKETING AND THE FUTURE OF BRANDS IN ASIA

text Professor Gemma Calvert art Beppe Giacobbe

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Asia is fast becoming the centre of gravity for big consumer brands. By 2016, Asia will account for a quarter of the consumer goods market and 40% of total consumer growth. In the bid to dominate and maintain market share, brands compete ferociously to attract and maintain the rising tide of middle class consumers in key markets including China, Indonesia, Japan and India. Vital to their success is the ability of these global brands to communicate their unique assets in an increasingly cluttered market environment and cut through the morass of cross-cultural differences that shape consumer behaviour. Yet all too often, these prevailing cultural norms are impenetrable by traditional market research methods, and marketers are left scratching their heads as to why new products, campaigns and other marketing initiatives fail despite millions of dollars invested in consumer insight.

It is now well established that as much as 90% of our behaviour is driven by emotions and motivations that operate below our conscious awareness. These so-called ‘System 1’ or ‘implicit’ brain processes are now accessible via a range of neuromarketing techniques including MRI scanning, cap electrode EEG, biometrics, facial decoding software, eyetracking and implicit association tests.

Of these, web-based methods such as implicit testing, facial decoding and eye-tracking, wich offer scalability, practicality (no equipment necessary) and fast, cost-effective solutions, are beginning to dominate the rapidly expanding neuromarketing industry.

Implicit association testing is one of the most established approaches now at the forefront of cross-cultural market research. These tests use online respondent panels and capture consumers’ ‘gut instinct responses’ at timescales too fast for the conscious brain to respond and influence the outcome. They are now being used to predict the likely acceptability of new products, brand extensions and pack-

aging designs, as well as measuring advertising effectiveness, the ease with which shoppers can identify a brand on shelf, and what is really stored in their heads about a brand’s perceived benefits and assets. By acting in the brain as shortcuts to expected rewards, powerful brands will increasingly become guides to aid consumers through the unfeasibly large choice of purchasing options, winning advocates by simplifying and enhancing the shopping experience.

Many implicit association tests are language agnostic, exploiting images rather than words, and are able to expose individual differences in consumer attitudes, stored brand memories and product preferences. In a study carried out in Malaysia, a global supplier of personal care products commissioned Neurosense to identify which of several designs communicated the concept of the modern Muslim woman. Where explicit qualitative failed to elicit a clear winner (partly due to this group’s discomfort about talking about such concepts), respondents’ implicit reactions (obtained in less than a second) to the different illustrations of women produced a clear statistically significant frontrunner and gave clear insights into which features of the design elicited different emotional attributes.

Beyond the marketplace, governments and non-profit organisations are also gaining greater insight into how best to effect behaviour change, to encourage sustainable choices and connect at an emotional level with the world’s growing populations. In a study using functional MRI that we conducted in connection with the French Government’s initiative on anti-smoking behaviour change, cigarette warning labels designed to put smokers’ off or make them think twice, was found in reality to stimulate the brain areas involved in nicotine addiction to a greater extent than images of the same packs without these warnings – a counterintuitive insight that was not revealed by focus groups or explicit surveys.

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Professor Gemma Calvert , Founder of Neurosense and Senior Fellow of the Institute for Asian Consumer Insight.

Brands on the brain

the future of brands to engage people with an issue in society that they think that

as: Are you aware of change today as

their brand responds to. This resonates much more widely than

a particular challenge?

the sanitary towel, the brand’s leading product. So that’s an

hb: The pace of change is an issue: it means

example of a brand starting to change those marketing criteria,

marketers have to be much more responsive.

restating its purpose, and using that purpose to attract people

Digital media means reactions move

who share a similar view. There’s a peer-to-peer influencing

incredibly fast. Of course, change is always

thing going on as well: the video goes viral, because if you agree

BRANDS ARE SHAPING OUR ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS TO STAND OUT ON THE SHELF, SAYS GEMMA ADAMS

personal engagement

with it you’re inclined to share it.

Hugh Burkitt offers insights into long-term value

Brands that are able to have different kinds of conversations,

an issue. If you go right back in history – even in my lifetime – there was the arrival of television in the 1950s, and then the arrival of supermarkets – which radically changed

and in particular emotional conversations, retain certain

anna simpson: What makes for

the balance of power between manufacturers

The view is circulating among strategists that businesses are

associations with people when they are hunting around

a resilient brand?

and retailers.

competing less on product innovation and more on their ability

for something on the supermarket shelf; they’re likely to

hugh burkit t: What you’re looking

to shape consumers’ purchasing criteria. So, rather than focus

prefer that brand over another, given the same price level

for when you create a brand is something that

What’s interesting right now is that, in the

on having the best product in the category, you redefine what

for comparable quality. But such conversations also enable

will survive and last for as long as possible,

UK, the largest supermarket Tesco is rapidly

people find desirable and then reposition your business

brands to push particular offers more, and I think this could –

that people will come back and look for –

losing sales and share because the whole

so that you’re then best able to deliver against those criteria.

eventually – help to open new markets for sustainability.

and one that develops value in its own right.

UK grocery market is undergoing structural

Whole books are written about brand equity.

change. People are shopping more online

It could be seen as a shift from internal R&D to marketing a core business strategy; engagement with consumers sets the agenda

and at local grocery stores, rather than

as: Which factors might increase a brand’s

go through the tedious and mundane process

chances of retaining long-term value?

of driving a car to the local supermarket and

I find this a really interesting prospect from a long-term point

hb: Historically, marketers have broken this

loading a car with heavy things and driving

of view, because a business that is able to shift consumer

down into simple models about the product,

it home. So that’s bad news for Tesco, but

desires can expand the market for sustainable products and

such as where it’s available and its price.

it seems that, the more people shop online,

services. Then, when you throw in campaigns like the ‘Throw

My own view is that the critical thing at any

the more important product brands become:

time is that the consumer sees value in your

people search for a particular brand in

brand: in its own market or in people’s lives

the first place, rather than just comparing

generally, because the great majority of us

attributes and price on the shelf.

like a girl’ video by Proctor and Gamble feminine hygiene brand Always, you see that viral video and social media offer a way

art Eleanor Taylor

The critical thing is that the consumer sees value

have only a finite amount of money to spend and a finite number of ways to spend it.

as: Should brands be making radical changes to keep up, or should they stick to their guns?

as: What characterises value for you? hb: I was looking back over winners of our

hb : Really good brands do subtly adapt all

own award, and was struck by the importance

personality remain reassuring factors through

of the product or service that underlies that

this change. Brands simplify choice,

brand. A good image – attractive packaging

and as choice proliferates, brands help people

and advertising – can get you so far, but

to find what they want.

the time. Their essential proposition and

Hugh Burkit t is Chief Executive

that you can then meet.

underlying that you have to be delivering a really good product – or increasingly, these days, a really good service. Easyjet rose to fame originally by offering cheap flights where the service was deliberately quite basic. Actually, recently, they have radically improved their position in the market place and seen a rise in sales and brand value by improving their customer service!

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of the Marketing Society

Intimate conversations

october 2014

the future of brands

october 2014

personal engagement

Gut instinct WILL BRANDS TEND OUR MICROBIAL GARDENS?

text Jon Turney art Beppe Giacobbe

Do you get your daily dose of bacteria? If the answer’s ‘yes’, the chances are that is because you have yoghurt for breakfast. It may be a fancy ‘probiotic’ brand, with some supposedly extra-beneficial bacteria added, or just bring you regular yoghurt-making cultures.

Either way, you and millions of others are picking up on outdated advice. Pioneer microbiologist Elie Metchnikoff singled out milk-fermenters (lactobacilli) as ‘good’ bacteria over 100 years ago, without much evidence. His recommendation to eat them has survived on one side of our contradictory attitudes to microbes. On the other, we fear germs, and attack them with antibiotics and disinfectants.

Both views are about to shift, as new science sheds light on the intimate connections we all have with a vast, complex community of microbes. Your colon, for example, which Metchnikoff regarded as a ‘vestigial cesspool’, is home to a teeming ecosystem, which contributes to digestion, to production of vitamins, and to fine-tuning of the immune system.

As researchers discover more about the microbes that live in us – in our guts, mouths, genitals, and elsewhere – new ways of managing this vital community come to the fore. And they will lead to new, more scientifically sound products. Drugs that zap pathogens will still be life-savers, in their place, but we will probably be less prone to wage total war on our microbes for lesser ailments. Broad-spectrum antibiotics are like napalming a rain forest because all that foliage shelters predators. We will move to more subtle approaches, cultivating our own preferred mix of microbes. With one firm of analysts forecasting a human microbiome (the term for the total complement of microbes) market worth $650 million dollars worldwide in 2023, what might be in store?

One medical application under development is microbial profiling for diagnosis and personalised treatment. DNA-based analyses of gut microbes are becoming fast and cheap. The species composition they reveal may help assess risks of a range of conditions, including inflammatory bowel disease and cancers, and judge which drugs might work best. French start-up Enterome Bioscience is developing diagnostic profiling for patients with Crohn’s disease and metabolic disorders. Metabiomics Corporation in the US promises a similar approach to spotting incipient colon cancer.

There will be medical products based on beneficial microbes, too. At the moment the best-validated microbial treatment is a total faecal microbial transplant – yes, that means > 46

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the future of brands

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®

We believe in quality first ... as long as customers are willing to pay a bit more for something of great quality 48

personal engagement

> what it says – as a simple remedy for patients who have a colon riddled with harmful strains of the bacterium Clostridium difficile. It works, but is a blunt instrument: just transfer the whole damn ecosystem! There will be better ways of repopulating the colon of someone whose normal microbiome has been depleted, using less complex mixes of bacteria.

Expect to see more products that supply helpful bacteria for other parts of the body, too. Anti-dandruff treatments (more a fungal than a bacterial problem, but the principle is the same) are under development. Chewing gum that helps prevent tooth decay is a serious possibility. There are already genetically engineered bacteria that colonise the surface of teeth and help prevent them becoming a home to Streptococcus mutans, which transforms sugar in the mouth into acid that corrodes tooth enamel, but turning them into a product has not yet overcome regulatory hurdles.

An alternative route, a mouthwash that contains a specific antimicrobial peptide that targets S. mutans, might be a better bet. Meanwhile, US shoppers can already buy oral probiotics for humans and, if they wish, their pets. Health claims are largely ruled out by the regulations on marketing probiotics as food products, so the pitch here is mainly cosmetic, even for pets. Sprinkle a patented blend of three microorganisms in powder form on your dog or cat food once a day, and the beast will have fresher breath and whiter teeth.

The next step is products that supply the right bacteria to anoint yourself with. A spray-on for skin care, intended as a substitute for soap and deodorant, is already under development and has been tried by a few intrepid journalists. The company bringing it to market, AOBiome, says that its patented ammonia-oxidising bacteria, “have been shown in a cosmetic clinical trial to improve the appearance and feel of people’s skin.” It quotes a price of $99 for a month’s supply, but has yet to scale-up production so has a near threemonth waiting time for orders in the US. Further ahead, we have to speculate. But imagine a future in which we spray our homes with bacteria instead of disinfectant, bring home-fermented foods into hospital to strengthen a loved-one’s recovery, or dab a cunning mix of bacteria behind each ear to boost our pheromones before a date.

Entrepreneurs are speculating freely, too. Gilad Gome, founder of a California start-up called Personal Probiotics, begins prosaically but then gets more fanciful in an interview on the website Motherboard. He suggests that a woman could protect herself from urinary tract infections and pathogens by taking a probiotic, and that the bacterial strains used might also be modified so that “if she wants she can hack into her microbiome and make her vagina smell like roses and taste like diet cola”. Whether or not this is a serious proposition, it is an effective way to get attention for a new company.

Meanwhile, there will be a large number of, er, less ambitious probiotic formulations that, unlike most of the old-school probiotics on the shelves, will be tested well-enough to allow their makers to make specific health claims. This June, Cultured Care probiotic gum, on the market as a mouth-freshener for some years, was approved by Health Canada. The makers, Prairie Naturals of Vancouver, can now advertise that the benefits of the bacteria the gum is loaded with – Streptococcus salivarius – include fighting bad breath and improving oral health. It is likely to be the first of many such products.

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the future of brands Forum for the Future is an independent non-profit working globally with business, government and other organisations to solve complex sustainability challenges.

This special edition, sponsored by L’Oréal, has been crafted by the team who brought you Green Futures, now part of Forum’s Futures Centre. Through our publications, we offer space for long-term reflection on particular topics – in this case, brands – stimulating better decisions today.

At the beginning of each year we will publish a compendium of journalistic enquiry, expert insight and leading innovation, asking how the future is changing. This collector's item will bring together analysis of change, with deep dives into crucial questions, and prompts for action.

Its content will be curated by the Futures Centre, a platform to engage decision-makers globally in conversations about the future and how to make it sustainable, enabling them to identify and take opportunities for action. The Futures Centre combines Forum's long track record in strategic futures work with the journalistic rigour of Green Futures. Stand by to join us for its launch in February 2015. forumforthefuture.org/greenfutures

support the futures centre The Futures Centre would like to thank these organisations for their invaluable support.

Friends of the Futures Centre enjoy opportunities to contribute perspectives and engage with our communities, both through our online platform and in the annual compendium.

To find out more, please contact Ariel Muller, Head of the Futures Centre: a.muller@forumforthefuture.org

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