Spring2022 ThePhilippines AHKWorldBusinessOutlook SurveyResults
AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey
• The Spring 2022 survey illustrates that 47% of the respondents are in a better business situation and 43% remains at a satisfactory situation. Moreover, there is a significantdecreaseobservedincompanieswhoconsider themselvesinabadsituation sinceSpring2020(36%).
• A positive business outlook is evident for Spring 2022. 55% of the respondents are expectingabetterbusinessoutlookinthenexttwelvemonths.
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• Spring 2022 survey depicted a positive investment outlook 44% the respondents are anticipating investment developments in the next twelve months. A notable increasefrom13%2yearsago.
In general, companies involved in German Philippine relations foresee a positive local business outlook but concerns on the economic consequences brought by the Russian invasionofUkraineillustrateproblemsinenergycostsandglobalsupplychains.
• 51%oftherespondentsexpectthatthelocaleconomicdevelopmentofthecountry will remain stagnant of the next twelve months. While 41% of the respondents are expectinglocaleconomicimprovementsinthenexttwelvemonths
• 48% of the respondents will retain the same number of employees in their workforce. However, it is worth noting that 46% of the respondents are considering to increase their employment in the next twelve months which is considerably higher thantheprevious4surveys.
Spring2022
SummaryofResults
3 SummaryofResults Top3risksforyourcompany’seconomic developmentinthenexttwelvemonths Top3economicconsequencesofthe RussianinvasionofUkraine 49% 45% 71% 61% 26% 41% Pricesofenergy Pricesofrawmaterials Exchangerates AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022
4 Q1:Howdoyouassessthecurrentsituationofyourcompany? 47%of respondentstheare inabetter business situation. AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 19%20%21%32% 47% 45%44%50% 47% 43% 36%36%29%20% 10% Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 satisfactorygood bad
5 Q2.Whatbusinessdevelopmentdoesyourcompanyexpectinthe nexttwelvemonths? Morethanhalf(55%) ofparticipating companiesstill forecastoptimism in developmentbusinessforthe nexttwelvemonths. AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 20% 47% 29% 55%57% 40% 62%35% 44%40% 40% 18%9%3%1 Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 better aboutequal worse
6 Q3:Howdoyoujudgelocaleconomicdevelopmentinthenext twelvemonths? Majorityof companiesparticipatingtheat51% forecastthatlocal developmenteconomicwill remainstagnant. AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 16% 28% 15% 34%41% 42% 37% 45% 54%51% 42%35%40% 12%8% Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 worseaboutbetterequal
7 Q4:Howdoyouthinklocalinvestmentsofyourcompanyare likelytodevelopinthenexttwelvemonths? Positivebusiness outlookisevident as44% participatingofcomp aniesexpectlocal investmentdevelo pmentinthenext twelvemonths. AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 13%19%14%26% 44% 31% 42%36% 43% 38%39% 29%32% 24% 14%18%13%15%7%3% Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 nolowerabouthigherequalinvestements
8 Q5:Howdothinklocalemploymentofyourcompanyislikelyto developinthenexttwelvemonths? While48% participantsofdonot planto expandtheir employees,46% stillplantoemploy more. AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 9% 27% 15% 34% 46% 47% 56%38% 51% 48% 44%35%29% 15%6% Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 lowerabouthigherequal
Q6: What are the biggest risks for your company’s economic developmentinthenexttwelvemonths? 9 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 58% 44% 24% 18% 27% 16% 36% 40% 36% 24% 64% 51% 17% 13% 25% 9% 35% 58% 25% 29% 64% 44% 20% 20% 14% 17% 36% 55% 26% 27% 55% 45% 15% 24% 28% 26% 28% 51% 18% 24% 49% 30% 33% 23% 29% 41% 49% 29% 40% 12% 28% 45% Demand Financing Laborcosts Skillsshortage Exchangerate Energy/ commodityprices Legalcertainty Economicpolicy framework Infrastructure Tradebarriers Pricesofraw materials Spring2020 Fall2020 Spring2021 Fall2021 Spring2022 Top3: PricesofEnergy(49%),PricesofRawMaterials(45%),ExchangeRate(41%)
U.1: What short-term economic consequences of the Russian invasion ofUkrainedoyoufeelorexpectforyourcompany? 10 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 2%4%4%5%9%9% 14%14%16% 24% 26% 61% 78% IncreasedproductionNone IncreaseinincomingordersOther Increasedlegaluncertainty Obstaclesinpaymenttransactions Decreaseinincomingorders Lossofbusinesspartners,terminationofbusinessrelationships Productionstoppage/reducedproduction Increaseintradebarriers Lackofrawmaterialsandintermediategoods Supplychainandlogisticsdisruptions Highercostsforenergy,rawmaterialsandintermediategoods
U.2: What long-term changes in the international division of labor do youexpect? 11 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 1% 14% 14% 14% 23%26%29%31% 37%37% 41%42% Other Relocationofsubsidiaries/productioncloserto German/EuropeanhomemarketNochanges Increaseddiversificationofsalesmarkets Relocationofsubsidiaries/productiontonewlocations Terminationorrestrictionsofbusinessrelationshipsincertain regions Increaseofprotectionism/autonomouseconomy Economicdecouplingofworldregions Increaseddiversificationofsuppliers Changeintransportroutes Changeinriskassessmentoflocations Increaseinpoliticalinfluenceonsupplychains(e.g.through legislation,tradebarriers)
UseofFreeTradeAgreements 12 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 11%18% 6% 6%8%13%13%11% 28%33% 8% 12% 7% 12% 16%19% 13% 12% 20%22%21%16%23% 17% 25%25% 28%23% 13%16% 14%8% 12% 15% 7%7% 10%14% 7%22%8%21%22% 17% 19%19%18%17% 17%14%10%11%9% 11% 15%10%10%15%10%8%12%12% 20% 20% 9%8%8%9%5%4% RegionalComprehensivePartnership(RCEP) ComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTranspacificPartnership(CPTPP) EU-KoreaFreeTradeAgreement EU-JapanEconomicPartnershipAgreement ASEAN-KoreaFreeTradeAgreement(AKFTA) ASEAN-JapanFreeTradeAgreement(AJCEP) ASEAN-Australia-NewZealandFreeTradeAgreement(AANZFTA) ASEAN-IndiaFreeTradeAgreement(AIFTA) ASEAN-ChinaFreeTradeAgreement(ACFTA) AseanFreeTradeArea(ATIGA) Regularly Occassionally Rarely Never (requrementsarenotmet) (limitedNeverunderstanding) Never(FTAisnotnecessaryforcompetitiveness)
LocationFactorsforBusinessActivity 13 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 38% 51%55% 32% 47%51%57% 40% 53%54%54%54% 43% 42% 30%29% 38% 35%27% 30% 41% 46%30%35%32%37% 13%13% 15% 22% 17%15%11% 15% 14%10%10%5%8%3%18%5%114% 3% 13%3%5%5%13113%1Non-Tarifftradebarriers Tarifftradebarriers(customsduties,importduties) Transportationandlogistics Accesstofinance Taxburden Qualityofeducation(non-technicalfields) Qualityofeducation(technicalfields) Availabilityofqualifiedworkers(non-technicalfields) Availabilityofqualifiedworkers(technicalfields) Politicalstability Legalpredictabilityandcertainty Level/perceptionof Inflationcorruptionrate highrelevance moderaterelevance lowrelevance norelevance notapplicable
LocationFactorsforTrade&Investment 42%42% 54%59% 38% 53% 56%61%68% 51% 49% 25%27% 34%34% 30% 46%16%21% 20% 21% 19% 33% 33% 58% 54% 19%20% 10% 26% 14% 21% 18%15%10% 13% 19%16%14% 5%5%5%4%1%4%2%4%3% 3% 2%2%1% Non-Tarifftradebarriers Tarifftradebarriers(customsduties,importduties) Transportationandlogistics Accesstofinance Taxburden Qualityofeducation(non-technicalfields) Qualityofeducation(technicalfields) Availabilityofqualifiedworkers(non-technicalfields) Availabilityofqualifiedworkers(technicalfields) Politicalstability Legalpredictabilityandcertainty Level/perceptionof Inflationcorruptionrate positiveimpact negativeimpact noimpact notapplicable 14 AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022
15 SurveyDataInformation For more details on the AHK WBO worldwide and the comparison to previous WBO surveys in the Philippines,clickthelinksbelow: • AHK WBO Worldwide Survey Results (Spring 2022): https://bit.ly/3bkbcG8 • AHK WBO Worldwide Analysis (Deutsch) (Spring 2022): https://bit.ly/3QCXw9c • Previous GPCCI WBO Surveys: https://philippinen.ahk.de/en/ini tiatives/publications AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022 Industry NumberofEmployees 18%31%51% Manufacturing/construction Trade Services 53%22%25% Lessthan100employees 100to1000employees Morethan1000employees
Mr.YvesAguilos HeadofGovernmentAffairsandDataProtectionOfficer E:yves.aguilos@gpcci.org T:+63(2)85198110loc.825 M:+639177131516 F:+63(2)3103656 GPCCIinSocialMedia Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/GPCCI.org/ LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/gpcci Twitter: LSZPoR2n3sCAYouTube:https://twitter.com/AHK_Philippinenhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqXbBFbpoE ForInquiries,PleaseContact: 16 Imprint Publisher AHKPhilippinen|German PhilippineChamberofCommerceandIndustry,Inc. 8FDoehleHausManila,30 38Sen.GilPuyatAvenue|BarangaySanIsidro|1234 MakatiCity|MetroManila|Philippines Tel+6328519 www.philippinen.ahk.deinfo@gpcci.org8110 Editors YvesAguilos,JuannaLisaZerrudo,IsabelleCebu PhotoCredits Pexels,Flaticon AHKWorldBusiness OutlookSurvey Spring2022
