Page 88

ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK

map 8.2: gasreferencescenarioandtheenergy[r]evolutionscenario WORLDWIDE SCENARIO

92.4 20.9

9.4

6.2 5.4

8 energyresources&securityofsupply |

9.8

OECD NORTH AMERICA

GAS

REF 2010

10-20

5-10

E[R] ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO

0-5

% RESOURCES GLOBALLY

PIPELINE GAS TRADE FLOWS (BILLION CUBIC METRES) LNG TRADE FLOWS (BILLION CUBIC METRES)

RESERVES TOTAL TRILLION CUBIC METRES [tn m3] | SHARE IN % OF GLOBAL TOTAL [END OF 2011] CONSUMPTION PER REGION BILLION CUBIC METRES [bn m3] | PETA JOULE [PJ] CONSUMPTION PER PERSON CUBIC METRES [m3] 0 H HIGHEST | M MIDDLE | L LOWEST

1000 KM

5.2%

bn m3

PJ

%

7.4

3.9%

7.4

3.9%

bn m3

PJ

bn m3

PJ

bn m3

PJ

731H

27,790H 731H

27,790H

2009

119

4,539

119

4,539

2050

890H

33,814H 67

2,559

2050

301

11,441

62

2,373

m3

m3

2009

1,598

1,598

2050

1,496

113

m3

m3

2009

255

255

2050

499

104

COST gas prices of LNG/ natural gas 1984 - 2010 and future predictions comparing the REF and E[R] scenarios.

E[R] REF

SOURCE JAPAN CIF/EUROPEAN UNION CIF/IEA 2010 - US IMPORTS/ IEA 2010 - EUROPEAN IMPORTS

LNG

YEARS 1988 - 2010 PAST

88

2010

tn m3

2050

20-30

9.9

%

2040

REF REFERENCE SCENARIO

5.2%

E[R]

tn m3

2030

30-40

9.9

2020

40-50

%

2010

>50

30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

tn m3

2015

LEGEND

REF

%

2009

$ PER MILLION Btu

GAS

E[R]

tn m3

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE

LATIN AMERICA

YEARS 2009 - 2050 FUTURE

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook

Energy [R]evolution EU  

A Sustainable EU 27 Energy Outlook