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CONTENTS CONSIDER THIS '7 Billion Actions' For 7 Billion People

By Ernest Corea

is part of GlobalNewsHub of Global Cooperation Council and the Globalom Media group.

The Global Cooperation Council is a membership organization and a think tank devoted to genuine cooperation in the interest of fair globalization as well as the culture of peace, a prerequisite for sustainable global security.

The Globalom Media Group is an information, communication and publishing agency committed to social and ethical responsibility.

GlobalNewsHub members include IDN-InDepthNews Analysis That Matters South Asian Outlook independent e-Monthly, The Global South independent e-Journal for global interdependence and the Development Watch monitor for international cooperation.

Global Editors: Ernest Corea and Ramesh Jaura

VIEWPOINT Free the World from the Nuclear Chain

By Xanthe Hall NUKE ABOLITION Turning Nuke Free 'Utopia' into Reality

By Ramesh Jaura Modernisation of Atomic Arsenal Acquiring Priority

By Ramesh Jaura New Network Seeks Nuclear-Free World

By Ernest Corea India Set to Take Lead

By Shastri Ramachandaran

SAARC SPECIAL Priorities for SAARC-China Partnerships – Part 1 of 2

By Nihal Rodrigo People-To-People Contact Works Well – Part 2 of 2

By Nihal Rodrigo NEW WORLD ORDER Gorbachev Forum Looks Beyond Messy Today

By Ramesh Jaura Of Willy Brandt, Development and Peace

By Jutta Wolf

NEWS ANALYSIS Durban Climate Meet's Bright and Dark Sides

By Ramesh Jaura Survival Fear Stalks Millions in West Africa

By Jerome Mwanda China Spells Out a Global Recovery Plan

By Jaya Ramachandran

CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY The Tale of Two Cleaned Up Asian Cities

By Taro Ichikawa

REFLECTIONS The Rise and Fall of Ethics and Work Spirit in Japan

By Masahiko Komura PERSPECTIVES India and US Partners in Arms

By Ernest Corea Afghan Women's Fate Uncertain

By Devinder Kumar

Until specified otherwise all images in this edition are from Wikimedia Commons

04-05 06 07-09 10-11 12-13 14-15 16-17 18-19 20-22 23-24 25-27 28 29-30 31-32 33-34 35-36 37-38

www.global-perspectives.info www.indepthnews.info GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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CONSIDER THIS

'7 Billion Actions' For 7 Billion People

By Ernest Corea* WASHINGTON DC - Baby 7,000,000,000 (Baby 7B) entered the world on Oct. 31, without being told ahead that (s)he would be a member of the human family which confronts great possibilities as well as dangerous pitfalls, almost side-by-side.

That, as Ismail Serageldin, a skilled and prescient communicator, puts it is "the paradox of our times". He was the World Bank's Vice President for Sustainable Development (currently Director of Egypt’s Bibliotheca Alexandrina); when he told an Asian Development Bank symposium: "The 20th century now behind us was a period of phenomenal progress in almost all aspects of human life. And yet, despite the massive advances, the great and beneficial changes, in our 'world of plenty' poverty and hunger persist. "Over 1 billion people live on less than the local equivalent of a US dollar a day. Over 2.5 billion live on the local equivalent of less than $2 a day.

This is hardly a life, and is barely survival.

"The food abundance produced by modern agriculture is not available to all. The earth's fragile natural resources on which we all depend are under siege. The information revolution is considered a metaphor for contemporary life, but the basics of material for literacy – textbooks, pencils and paper - are not available to millions of children who are thus deprived of selffulfilment.

"Technology has revolutionized medical treatment but some diseases remain rampant. … And the end of the cold war has not established peace on earth. Conflicts are common in many countries, including those that can least bear the burden." How to accentuate the positive side of the paradox and diminish if not eliminate the negative is an elusive goal. Let's get back to this after looking more closely at the arrival of Baby 7B. Banana Count For the record: The UN's demographers calculated that the world population would hit 7 billion on October 31, 2011 so the first baby born on that historic Monday would herald the 7B Age. Given the average number of children born per minute internationally, and the variety of time zones in which we all co-exist, identifying the undisputed No. 7B would have been a tough call. So celebrations were held all over the world on Oct. 31 to honour the arrival of the "symbolic" seven billionth among us.

Among those whose arrival on Planet Earth have been celebrated are Nargis of the village Malli in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state; Danica in teeming Manila, the Philippines; Muthumali in congested Colombo, Sri Lanka, and "Enough" in bustling South Africa – yes, "Enough" is actually what the newborn's 19-year-old mother called her.

Seven billion is a number that is difficult to visualize. To make it easier at least for children to get their minds around the idea, the Washington Post in its "juniors' section," KidsPost of Oct. 30, explained that "Americans consume 7 billion bananas, the nation's most popular fruit, roughly every four months." That's a whole lot of bananas.

The Baby 7Bs were born into a world of great progress, undreamt of prosperity, dazzling technological and scientific advances, developments in the field of modern medicine that have brought relief and consolation to many, enthralling activity in the arts, significant progress in national and international law, and a revolution in information technology that has changed how millions live. And yet, it is a world with a distressing underside as well.

The fact that the human population is already at 7 billion concerns demographers, academics, public and private sector development operatives and even politicians. They ask whether this number of people can be fed and whether their well-being, overall, can be nurtured. They are concerned, too, that in the process of feeding such large numbers, the world's fragile environment will be further assailed.

Eric Tayag of the Department of Health in the Philippines says: "Seven billion is a number we should think about deeply. We should really focus on the question of whether there will be food, clean water, shelter, education, and a decent life for every child. If the answer is 'no', it would be better for people to look at easing this population explosion."

On similar lines, Roger Cohen, a demographer at Rockefeller University, told CBS News: "Rapid population growth makes almost every other problem more difficult to solve. …If we could slow our growth rate, we would have an easier job in dealing with all the other things like education, health, employment, housing, food, the environment and so on."  *The writer has served as Sri Lanka's ambassador to Canada, Cuba, Mexico, and the USA. He was Chairman of the Commonwealth Select Committee on the media and development, Editor of the Ceylon 'Daily News' and the Ceylon 'Observer', and was for a time Features Editor and Foreign Affairs columnist of the Singapore 'Straits Times'. He is Global Editor of IDN-InDepthNews and a member of its editorial board as well as President of the Media Task Force of Global Cooperation Council.

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

CONSIDER THIS People Problem These two comments reflect the long-held view that the pressure of population causes devastating economic, social, and environmental problems that are all but insurmountable.

The often quoted assessment by Stanford University scientist Paul Ehrlich summed up that viewpoint. He said: "The United States should announce that it will no longer ship food to countries such as India where dispassionate analysis indicates that the unbalance between food and population is hopeless."

Well, that "worst-case scenario" is behind us, and India is moving along at a fairly steady clip. There are many, however, including policy makers in India who will confirm that an unsustainable population is a vexing issue.

Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who showed by her policies including, briefly, enforced male sterilization, that she considered the pressure of population an issue that required effective correctives, took a holistic approach when she told (late) W. David Hopper, a Canadian agricultural economist and the World Bank's Senior Vice President for Policy, Planning, and Research: "If I can find a way to ensure that women and girls are in full control of their bodies, we will not face a population problem."

That was a far-sighted, integrated, and complex approach which would have required not only changes in education, attitudes, and laws but of social structures as well. There were echoes of her viewpoint in a cautionary comment from Barbara Crossette, a former doyenne of New York Times foreign correspondents who has a profound understanding of and familiarity with the global South. Crossette co-authored The State of the World Population 2011 which was recently published by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).

"The figure of 7 billion is really irrelevant to many people, and most of all to women in the developing world where seven pregnancies is a much more significant number… They [women] have really been let down in many ways by the world," she told a news conference in New York, stressing that some governments are not supporting family planning and other related efforts.

Key Goals Babatunde Osotimehin, UNFPA Executive Director, appears determined to follow a course that will make the 7B Age less anxiety-ridden and more oriented towards positive solutions. His view is encapsulated in the assertion: "Instead of asking questions like 'Are we too many?' we should be asking 'What can I do to make the world better?'."

In the hope of doing just that – making the world a better place for all 7 billion of us – UNFPA leads a program known as the 7 Billion Actions initiative.

The program is directed at creating awareness of both the challenges and opportunities that confront the 7B Age. In specific terms, the program's two key objectives are: - Building global awareness around the opportunities and challenges associated with a world of seven billion people.

- Inspiring governments, NGOs, the private sector, media, academia and individuals to take actions that will have a socially positive impact.

Image: UNFPA

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

The program will concentrate on seven themes: Poverty and inequality; Women and girls empowerment; Reproductive health and rights; Young people; Ageing population; Environment; and Urbanization.

Reaping Dividends Launching the program, UN Secretary General Ban ki-moon said: "The seven billionth citizen will be born into a world of contradictions. We have plenty of food yet millions are still starving.

We see luxurious lifestyles yet millions are impoverished. We have great opportunities for progress but also great obstacles.”

He described the 7 Billion Actions initiative as "a clarion call to people, communities, countries and our partners: nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), businesses, academics and faith leaders."

Discrimination, human rights abuses, lack of democracy, violence against women, maternal mortality, climate change and the degradation of the environment were all on his list of challenges and, above all, poverty and inequality.

"These are all the challenges that we can and must overcome," he said. "If we invest in people, we will reap the best dividends." To ensure progress, UNFPA reports that it has already recruited a broadly representative group of corporations, organisations, and individuals to be engaged in the initiative, using online, mobile and offline resources.

Consider This The world's population which stood at 1 billion in 1804, moved to t billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion in 1908, and now 7 billion. UN demographers estimate that the world's population will be 8 billion in 2025 and 10 billion by 2083. These are long shot projections that could be affected by any number of factors including wars, economic malaise, health emergencies, support for family planning, and so on.

So, consider this. From the time when President Truman "invented" international development cooperation up to now, the world has devised a series of plans and programs to reduce and finally eliminate poverty and its by-product hunger. In more recent years, the environment has been added as a third issue of special concern.

Much has been achieved, and much remains to be done. If the 7 Billion Actions initiative does help to accelerate real movement on all three fronts it will be well worth the effort. If it does not, it will go down as yet another well-meant “gimmick” worth less than the airtime taken to broadcast its launch.  5

VIEWPOINT

Free the World from the Nuclear Chain

By Xanthe Hall* BERLIN - We talk about abandoning nuclear energy or abolishing nuclear weapons.

But this is not enough. They are only the visible products of a whole chain of production that binds us – the nuclear chain. This chain does much more damage than we are aware of.

At the front end of the chain is uranium mining – providing the same source for both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. Next comes enrichment. Centrifuge technology enriches uranium and it is only a question of the enrichment grade that defines whether the uranium can be used for producing electricity or weapons.

Regardless of what we believe or not, we can never be 100% sure of what it will be used for. Look at Iran, an example that shows what role mistrust and tension play in the use of such technology. The combination of enrichment and political conflict could lead to war.

A by-product of enrichment is the production of uranium weapons from depleted uranium left over from the process.

These weapons have often been used – for instance, in Bosnia, Iraq and Afghanistan – with terrible consequences for health and the environment.

Next in the chain comes the nuclear reactor. Not only can it produce electricity, it also makes plutonium, which can be seperated out from the spent fuel rods through reprocessing.

Nuclear weapons are made either with highly enriched uranium or plutonium. As long as nuclear weapons exist, they can be used. Either in war – as in Hiroshima and Nagasaki – or for nuclear tests. At the back end of the chain is waste or fallout.

Our Chains All of these links in the chain are dangerous for health and the environment, principally through the radiation they emit. All of the links produce either waste or fallout, that remain in the environment for hundreds of thousands of years. The nuclear chain is far from being free from CO2 emissions. The claim that nuclear energy can somehow save the climate is a patent lie.

Hiroshima, Chernobyl, Semipalatinsk ... whether it was the dropping of the atomic bomb, a nuclear meltdown or atmospheric nuclear testing – the affected populations all show a similar clinical picture, depending on which isotopes were released.

Thyroid cancer, carcinomas, colon cancer, lung cancer, bone cancer, leukaemia (particularly in children), liver cancer, genetic anomalies and many other diseases.

All of these diseases will more than likely show up as long-term effects of the Fukushima disaster.

Our Prescription Germany is seeking a withdrawal of US tactical nuclear weapons but is finding it difficult to achieve due to alliance obligations in NATO. The abandonment of nuclear energy has also been decided upon, and yet remains insufficient, as radiation knows no borders.

This is why IPPNW prescribes a holistic therapy. It is time to think in global categories and to take on the whole nuclear chain, and not only parts of it. Therefore, we call for: A global ban on uranium mining: Indigenous peoples around the world suffer the most from the effects of uranium mining. Their human rights are being violated, their environment destroyed.

Uranium should stay in the earth.

No more nuclear transports: Whether it be yellowcake from Niger, Australia or India to Europe or nuclear waste from Germany to Russia, it should stop.

An end to the production of fissile materials: We don’t just mean a “cut-off” of production for military use, as many states demand, but also for civilian use. In Europe, we welcome the decision to close Sellafield in the UK and call for Le Hague reprocessing plant in France to be shut down.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty should finally enter into force: Nine nations are still holding out, among them the USA and China. A treaty banning and abolishing nuclear weapons (Nuclear Weapons Convention). Negotiations need to begin now! Join the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear weapons ICAN. A global energy shift: This should aim towards regional energy autonomy. With more renewables, increased efficiency and reduced consumption, we can succeed. Good energy policies are policies for peace – there will be no wars over the sun or the wind. 

*Xanthe Hall has worked as the nuclear disarmament campaigner at IPPNW Germany for over 18 years and is based at their office in Berlin, Germany. Xanthe was born in Scotland, grew up in England and studied Drama and Theatre Arts at Birmingham University. In the early eighties, she was a member of the West Midlands CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament) executive committee responsible for Non-violent Direct Action and worked as a staff member for CND before leaving for West Berlin in 1985.

Xanthe co-founded the Abolition 2000 Global Network for the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons in 1995. She also helped found the German Abolition national network: Traegerkreis "Atomwaffen abschaffen". Xanthe is a member of the Executive Committee of Middle Powers Initiative and the Abolition Global Council. She is European Coordinator of the Parliamentarians for Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament and German 2020 Vision Campaigner for Mayors for Peace.

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NUKE ABOLITION

Turning Nuke Free 'Utopia' into Reality

By Ramesh Jaura It sounds like a utopia. But it is a "concrete utopia", very much in the spirit of Ernst Bloch's philosophy and concomitant with Nichiren Buddhism. Whereas the former visualises elimination of all forms of oppression and exploitation, the latter envisions transformation of the human spirit – from a culture of violence to a culture of peace – leading to sustainable human security that encompasses a world free of nuclear weapons and other tools of mass destruction.

The touring exhibition 'From a Culture of Violence to a Culture of Peace: Transforming the Human Spirit' is one tool to achieve that objective in the repository of Soka Gakkai International (SGI), a Tokyo-based organisation with some12 million members around the world who have embraced life-affirming Buddhism, as taught by the 13th-century Japanese priest Nichiren.

The exhibition was created by SGI in 2007 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Soka Gakkai's president Josei Toda's Declaration Calling for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons. It was launched on September 8, 2007 in New York as the opening of a new campaign, the People’s Decade for Nuclear Abolition at a civil society forum specifically aimed at mobilizing youth.

Since then, it has toured more than 220 cities in 27 countries, including Geneva at the UN Office, Wellington (New Zealand) at the Parliament House, Oslo (Norway) at City Council hall (Norway), and in Vienna at the United Nations. The latest showing was from October 7 to 16 in Berlin (Germany), which SGI vice president Hiromasa Ikeda praised as "a city of peace".

Explaining the significance of the October showing, co-organised by IPPNW Germany, affiliate of Nobel laureate International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, and Global Cooperation Council, SGI President Daisaku Ikeda said in a message. "Berlin is a city that, transcending the legacy of Cold War confrontation, continues to forge a brilliant new future."

SGI is, along with IPPNW and ICAN (the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons), a leading campaigner for abolition of nukes, a target that also the touring exhibition has set itself.

The exhibition coincided with the 50th anniversary of Ikeda's visit to Berlin when in October 1961 he stood before the Brandenburg Gate dividing the city and symbolic of the division of Germany. The Berlin Wall, built just two months earlier, he recalled, presented a deeply disturbing and unforgettable sight: the wall, and the ranks of soldiers and tanks, represented the front lines of Cold War confrontation.

And yet, that wall, long considered unmovable, was brought down – not the least – through the efforts of ordinary citizens. He is similarly convinced that nuclear weapons, whose abolition is considered to be impossible, will without fail be eliminated through the efforts of awakened citizens. Germany has played an important role in promoting peace and stability and in integrating Europe and, he said in his message on the opening of the exhibition, he was certain that Germany would play a critical role in future challenges.  Picture: Exhibition 'From a Culture of Violence to a Culture of Peace: Transforming the Human Spirit' | Credit: SGI

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NUKE ABOLITION Göttingen Declaration He recalled the words of Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker – "The political situation of the world must be radically transformed so that a truly peaceful order comes into existence" – who throughout the Cold War, strove to make people aware of the threat posed by nuclear weapons. 2012 will mark the fifty-fifth anniversary of the Göttingen Declaration in which von Weizsäcker, Division Director of the Max Planck Institute for Physics, Göttingen, played a pivotal role.

The declaration signed by 18 leading nuclear physicists expressed "deep concern" at the "plans of the German Army of acquiring atomic weapons". They "felt compelled to point out publicity certain facts known to the experts, but seemingly not sufficiently known to the public."

The declaration pointed out: "Tactical atomic bombs (the German army planned to acquire) have the same destructive effects as normal atomic bombs. The designation 'tactical' is used in order to express that they are to be used not only against human settlements, but also against troops in surface combat. Every single tactical atomic bomb or atomic grenade has similar effects as the first atomic bomb which destroyed Hiroshima."

Since tactical atomic weapons were available in large numbers, the physicists said, their destructive effect would be on the whole much larger. These bombs were designated as "small" only in comparison to the recently developed "Strategic" bombs and mainly to the hydrogen bombs.

It went on to say: "There is no limit known to the possibility of increasing the destructive effect on life and property of Strategic atomic weapons. Today a tactical atomic bomb can destroy a small city; a hydrogen bomb can make uninhabitable a region the size of the industrial district of the Ruhr. The whole population of the German Federal Republic could be exterminated today by means of the spreading radioactivity of hydrogen bombs. We do not know any practical possibility to protect large populations from this danger."

Tactical Nuclear Weapons Notwithstanding the declaration, the United States stationed tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Germany and other European countries as part of NATO's "nuclear sharing" policy, which was initiated in the 1950s to dissuade U.S. allies from developing indigenous nuclear weapons programs and to persuade them to be protected under the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In addition to Germany, U.S. TNWs are deployed in several other European countries such as Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Netherlands. Deployment has dramatically dropped from its peak in the 1970s, when more than 7,000 weapons were stationed in Europe. According to knowledgeable sources, in late 2007 only about 350 remained.

The drop in deployed TNW resulted mainly from the post-Cold War Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs) that Presidents George H.W. Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev announced in 1991. These initiatives called for a drastic cut in both U.S. and Soviet TNW in Europe.

In January 2007, the U.S. Air Force removed the U.S. air base at Ramstein (Germany) from a list of installations that receive periodic nuclear weapons inspections. According to Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, this indicates that the 130 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons that had been stockpiled at the air base during the Cold War may have been permanently removed.

If so, Germany now hosts only one site with U.S. nuclear weapons: Büchel air base. Since NATO and the United States make no public disclosures as to how many nuclear weapons are deployed, the exact number of TNWs in Germany is unconfirmed. Nonetheless, it is estimated that 20 nuclear warheads are now stationed at Büchel.

The issue of withdrawal of TNWs has been discussed within the German government for several years. But in October 2009, the new German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle (liberal FDP) left no doubt about his resolve to have nukes (TNWs) out of Germany. He said the new German government would support the vision of U.S. President Barack Obama for a world free of nuclear weapons.

At the same time, he added: "We will take President Obama at his word and enter talks with our allies so that the last of the nuclear weapons still stationed in Germany, relics of the Cold War, can finally be removed. Germany must be free of nuclear weapons." This view was affirmed by Chancellor Angela Merkel (conservative CDU). But nukes continue to be stationed on German soil.  8

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NUKE ABOLITION "We can defeat the culture of violence" Precisely against this backdrop, German parliamentarian Uta Zapf (social democratic SPD) found the exhibition title "wonderful" as it aims to show that "we can defeat the culture of violence".

Zapf chairs the parliamentary sub-committee on disarmament, arms control and nonproliferation.

A nuclear weapons free world is for sure not yet around the corner. Nor is peace yet anchored in human spirit, as also evidenced by the new NATO strategy. Nevertheless, there is reason to "engage ourselves as we are doing with this exhibition, to banish the inhuman evil of nuclear weapons," she said.

"In fact, we need the optimism that the exhibition title embodies, because the world is still littered with weapons and nuclear arms. Certainly there has been nuclear disarmament, and the

Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker [Wikimedia]

number of atomic weapons has been reduced also during the Cold War. Now with START II a step ahead has been taken after a long time," argued Zapf.

"Positive outcome of the NPT Review conference in May 2010 also gives cause for optimism. In fact, its action plan shows a way to completely abolish nuclear weapons. . . . It is important that the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) comes into force. The test moratorium of great nuclear powers USA, Russia and China does not suffice. Only a treaty ratified by great nuclear power owners will give us the certainty that no more atomic arsenal will be built up in the future." But there are miles to go before that objective is achieved.

In November 2010, at their summit meeting in Lisbon, NATO members agreed a new Strategic Concept which will serve as the Alliance's 'roadmap' for the next 10 years. After U.S. President Barack Obama made explicit his vision for a nuclear weapon free world and the need to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, NATO members Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands called for U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to be removed from Europe.

However, despite much discussion on the subject in the run-up to the release of the Strategic Concept, the new document failed to move with the times saying instead that "It commits NATO to the goal of creating the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons – but reconfirms that, as long as there are nuclear weapons in the world, NATO will remain a nuclear Alliance".

Nevertheless, there has been growing pressure from European civil society and some NATO Uta Zapf [uta-zapf.de] governments for discussions on the future of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe to be undertaken as part of NATO's Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The DDPR was mandated following debates over revising the Strategic Concept, and is scheduled to be completed by May 2012.

Genuine Security While the outcome of NATO debates is anxiously awaited, the indisputable fact is that today humanity faces a daunting array of challenges – from poverty and environmental destruction, to devastating unemployment and financial instability – which require the joint, coordinated response of all nations.

"These challenges make all the more clear the folly of diverting precious human and economic resources to the maintenance of nuclear arsenals. What humanity requires is genuine security, not nuclear weapons," says SGI President Ikeda who since 1983 has been presenting every year proposals aimed at peace and disarmament.

In his 2011 proposal to the UN, Ikeda pleads for undertaking three challenges toward the creation of a world free of nuclear weapons: "We should establish the structures through which states possessing nuclear weapons can advance disarmament toward the goal of complete elimination; we should establish the means to prevent all development or modernization of nuclear weapons; and we should establish a Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) comprehensively prohibiting them."

He pleads for "a fundamental revision of the framework for nuclear disarmament, such that the goal of multilateral negotiations is not confined to arms control but aims toward a clear vision of nuclear weapons abolition."

Responding to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's call for the regular convening of a UN Security Council Summit on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, Ikeda says: "These summits should not be limited to the members of the Security Council: participation should also be opened to states that have chosen to relinquish their nuclear weapons or programs, as well as specialists in the field and NGO representatives."

"This process should aim toward holding the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Bringing together national leaders as well as representatives of global civil society, this would be a nuclear abolition summit which could mark the effective end of the nuclear era," he adds. With that happening, the utopia would have been turned into reality. 

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NUKE ABOLITION

Modernisation of Atomic Arsenal Acquiring Priority

By Ramesh Jaura

Test launch of a LGM-25C Titan II ICBM from underground silo at Vandenberg AFB, during the mid 1970s

BERLIN - In a situation reminiscent of Stanley Kubrick's 'Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb', none of the nuclear weapon states is actively contemplating a future without nukes. On the contrary, the potential for using dreadful atomic arsenal is growing, says a new report.

Pointing to some rather disquieting trends worldwide, the paper says: "Although the New START treaty between the United States and Russia (which entered into force on February 5, 2011) arguably represents the most significant arms control advance in two decades, the Treaty contains significant gaps that mean it will not necessarily lead to significant reductions in the number of nuclear weapons held by both parties."

"Whatever the current global rhetoric about nuclear disarmament from the nuclear armed states, in the absence of any further major disarmament or arms control breakthroughs, the evidence points to a new era of nuclear weapons modernisation and growth," cautions Kearns.

He substantiates this view with data and analysis related to current stockpiles of nuclear weapons held outside Britain, examines force modernisation trends, declaratory policy and nuclear doctrine, and the security drivers that underpin nuclear weapons possession in each state.

The report is intended as a "discussion paper" of the UK Trident Commission, an independent, cross-party commission, to examine British nuclear weapons policy. It has been published by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC) at the onset of November.

More Nuke States Though there has been a major reduction in the global nukes stockpile since the mid-1980s, the number of nuclear weapon states has gone up, says the report, adding: "Nuclear weapons," totaling some 20,000, "are present today in some of the most unstable and violence prone regions of the world, and in North East Asia, the Middle East and South Asia, there are serious conflict and proliferation concerns that suggest an increased potential for nuclear weapons use."

The data analysis reveals that long-term nuclear force modernisation or upgrade programmes are underway in all the currently nuclear armed states: Hundreds of billions of dollars are earmarked for the purpose over the next decade, not only in the United States and Russia but in major development programmes in China, India, Pakistan and elsewhere.

Modernised Nukes Almost all of the nuclear armed states are continuing to produce new or modernized nuclear weapons and some, such as Pakistan and India, appear to be seeking smaller, lighter, warheads than they possess currently, to allow these either to be delivered to greater distances or to allow them to be deployed over shorter ranges and for more tactical purposes.

As regards delivery systems, the study says: "Russia and the United States have recommitted to maintaining a triad of land, sea and air forces for the long-term. China, India and Israel are seeking to build triads of their own. In the case of China and India, major ballistic missile programmes are underway, both to increase the range and sophistication of land-based systems and to build fleets of nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines.

"In the case of Israel, the size of its nuclear tipped cruise missile enabled submarine fleet is being increased and the country seems to be on course, on the back of its satellite launch rocket programme, for future development of an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM).

"Pakistan is not only rapidly increasing the size of its warhead stockpile but is building new plutonium production reactors, which could add to its fissile material stocks and, like North Korea, it is seeking to rapidly enhance its missile capabilities. ďƒ† 10

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NUKE ABOLITION "France, having recently completed the modernisation of its ballistic missile submarine fleet, is also introducing new and more capable bombers to the air component of its nuclear force, though at reduced aircraft numbers overall, and is introducing new and better nuclear warheads to both its sealaunched ballistic missiles and to its aircraft."

These findings come less than three years after President Barack Obama's historic speech in Prague (the Czech Republic) in April 2009 in which he envisioned a nuclear free world, though not his lifetime.

Nukes Considered Essential The shocking fact is that in all nuke armed states "nuclear weapons are currently seen as essential to national security and in several of them, nuclear weapons are assigned roles in national security strategy that go well beyond deterring a nuclear attack."

This, says Kearns, is the case in Russia, Pakistan, Israel, France and "almost certainly" in North Korea.

India has left the door open to using nuclear arsenal in response to chemical or biological weapons attacks.

In fact, as the independent International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament pointed out: "Only China limits the stated role to deterrence against the threat or use by others of nuclear weapons; all others keep open the option, to a greater or lesser extent, of using their nuclear weapons in response to other kinds of threats."

The Soviet R-36 (SS-18 Satan) is the largest ICBM in history, with a Throw weight of 8,800 kg, twice that of Peacekeeper

The Blame Game All nuclear power armed states justify modernisation and upgrade programmes by pointing to their strategic or potential vulnerability, in the face of nuclear and conventional force developments taking place elsewhere, says the report.

Moscow claims that the Russian nuclear programme is in response to concerns over U.S. ballistic missile defence and advanced conventional capabilities like Conventional Prompt Global Strike, as well as to concerns over conventional weakness relative to China.

China justifies its nuke modernisation and upgrade programme by referring to these same developments in the United States and by pointing out India's plans. India, on the other hand, says its nuke programme is driven partly by fear over Pakistan and China. Pakistan defends its nuclear programme by referring to Indian conventional force superiority. Far away from South Asia, France has endorsed nuclear weapons modernisation as a response to stockpiles elsewhere that "keep on growing".

Non-strategic Nukes The study points out that in some states, non-strategic nuclear weapons are seen to have a particular value as compensation for conventional force weakness relative to perceived or potential adversaries.

"These weapons are seen, in this regard, to provide the conventionally weak state with conflict escalation options short of an all out nuclear attack on an adversary, which may not be seen as credible," says the report. This situation mirrors aspects of NATO nuclear doctrine during the Cold War. Nuclear weapons are therefore assigned war-fighting roles in military planning in countries like Russia and Pakistan. In Russia, this takes on the form of the nuclear de-escalation doctrine. In Pakistan, it is implied, but left ambiguous to confuse risk calculations in the minds of any adversary, but principally India. ď ’ GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NUKE ABOLITION

New Network Seeks Nuclear-Free World

By Ernest Corea

Gareth Evans | evans.org

WASHINGTON DC - Thirty former senior political, diplomatic and military leaders from thirteen countries China, India and Pakistan which are "nuclear powers” have launched the Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN).

Its objective is "to inform and energize public opinion, and especially high-level policymakers, to take seriously the very real threats posed by nuclear weapons, and do everything possible to achieve a world in which they are contained, diminished and ultimately eliminated."

"Existing arsenals amount to some 23,000 weapons with a combined destructive capacity of 150,000 Hiroshima bombs," says the network.

The network’s convener, former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, says that the "quest to eliminate nuclear weapons cannot begin to succeed without the determined engagement of policymakers in the Asia Pacific region. And this stellar group of senior, respected and extraordinarily experienced individuals can really help make that happen."

Founding members include several former Prime Ministers, UN Under Secretaries for Disarmament, Foreign Ministers, ambassadors and heads of research institutions. They are from Australia, China. India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Rep. of Korea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam.

Network members will conduct advocacy programs directed at governments in the region, commission research, organize conference and seminars and maintain an informational web site www.a-pln.org.

Global Threat The text of the network's launch-declaration follows: Why this new Network? We have joined together to support a nuclear weapons free world, believing that these weapons pose an existential threat to all nations and peoples.

As a group of individuals who have held high executive or advisory positions across the Asia Pacific region – from South Asia to East Asia and Australasia – we will work to promote policies in our own region and beyond to effectively contain, diminish and eliminate nuclear weapons, and to create a security environment conducive to the achievement of those goals.

We have come together in Japan for our inaugural meeting because Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain indelible historical reminders of the horror of nuclear weapons, and the Fukushima disaster a shocking contemporary reminder of the mortal danger of uncontrolled exposure to nuclear radiation.

We believe that we have a particular responsibility to work for change in the Asia Pacific region. As the world’s economic, political and security centres of gravity shift inexorably here, our stake in a secure world order – and obligation to contribute with ideas, policy proposals and vision to that end – have grown commensurately. What happens in this region impacts every dimension of the global nuclear agenda. We have shown the way forward with nuclear weapons free zones in the Treaties of Raratonga and Bangkok, but also have – in South Asia and the Korean Peninsula – two of the world’s most acute areas of nuclear tension. The quest to eliminate nuclear weapons cannot succeed without the determined engagement of policymakers in the Asia Pacific region.

Inhumane Invention We believe in a nuclear weapons free world because: - Nuclear weapons are the most indiscriminately inhumane weapons ever invented, their use an affront to every fundamental principle of international humanitarian law.

- So long as anyone has nuclear weapons there are others who will want them; so long as any nuclear weapons remain anywhere, they are bound one day to be used – by design, mistake or miscalculation – by state or non-state actors; and any such use will be catastrophic.

- While nuclear weapons cannot be uninvented, they can and must be outlawed, as chemical and biological weapons have been.

We believe that the risks associated with nuclear weapons in the post-Cold War world are much more acute than most policymakers accept and most publics are aware. Serious threats persist from the use or misuse of weapons by existing nuclear armed states, newly nuclear-armed states and terrorist actors, and from aspects of the civil fuel cycle: 

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NUKE ABOLITION - Existing arsenals amount to some 23,000 weapons with a combined destructive capacity of 150,000 Hiroshima bombs. That nuclear peace has held since 1946 owes more to good luck than good stewardship. In a world, now, of multiple nuclear-armed states, significant regional tensions, command and control systems of varying sophistication, potentially destabilizing new cyber technology, and continuing development of more modern (including smaller and potentially more useable weapons), it cannot be assumed that such luck will continue.

- The risks of proliferation are growing. Israel for many years, and India and Pakistan since the end of the Cold War, have become nuclear armed states outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); North Korea has tested weapons in defiance of it; should Iran build nuclear weapons others in its region will very likely follow; and many other states have the technical capability to join their ranks.

Nuclear armed states inside the NPT have not been disarming fast enough, straining the confidence of their non-nuclear partners in the credibility of the NPT grand bargain.

- Terrorist groups exist which would acquire and use nuclear weapons if they could. The security of nuclear weapons, and the fissile materials which only states can produce, is of critical significance, and despite major improvements in cooperation cannot be assumed to be complete.

- Civil nuclear energy use seems certain to grow significantly in the decades ahead, notwithstanding the impact of the Fukushima tragedy, which makes clear the urgent need for high, universal and mandatory global safety standards, and effective human and technical infrastructure. Potential diversion of material from civilian to military use will remain of continuing concern, with uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing facilities built without international or multilateral management constituting a particular proliferation risk.

Momentum Needed We believe that efforts to achieve a world free from the threat of nuclear weapons are at a critical stage, and badly need re-energizing, both globally and regionally. Until recently there were grounds for optimism: in the many statements by very senior officials of the Cold War era challenging the role and utility of nuclear weapons in the contemporary word; in a major increase in nuclear-focused analysis and advocacy by research institutes, think tanks and blue-ribbon international panels; and a significant revival of civil society activism.

President Obama showed the way forward with his ground-breaking commitment to achieving "a world without nuclear weapons” in his 2009 Prague speech, and some important developments followed . . . . But that momentum is in danger of stalling. There is little sign of progress on bringing into force the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, on breaking the negotiation stalemate on a treaty to prohibit further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, on meeting future proliferation risks associated with the civil nuclear sector, or on measures to significantly strengthen the non-proliferation treaty regime.

Further bilateral arms reduction negotiations between the U.S. and Russia have stalled, and there are few if any signs of willingness by the established nuclear weapons powers, both inside and outside the NPT, to embark on serious multilateral arms reduction negotiations of a kind which could eventually lead to a nuclear weapons free world.

Five Commitments We believe that if the risks of a nuclear weapons world are to be addressed, and the vision of a nuclear weapons free world advanced, policymakers have to get serious about five distinct, but interrelated, sets of policy commitments: - Action on disarmament: through bilateral and multilateral processes, to dramatically reduce the role and salience of nuclear weapons in national armouries (including through no-first-use commitments . . . .

- Action on non-proliferation: through strengthening the NPT safeguards regime; universal adoption and effective implementation of the Additional Protocol; action to minimise the proliferation potential of any expansion of civil nuclear energy use, including development of proliferation resistant technologies; and effective international action through the UN Security Council in response to the current proliferation risks posed by North Korea and Iran.

- Action on the critical building blocks for both non-proliferation and disarmament: bringing into force the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty; negotiating an effective Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty and addressing the question of existing stockpiles; . . . encouraging the formation of new nuclear weapon free zones particularly in areas subject to tension, including North East Asia and the Middle East; and refining and developing the elements of a Nuclear Weapons Convention . . . .

- Action to address regional tensions and other non-nuclear factors hindering progress toward disarmament: the quest to delegitimise, minimize and eliminate nuclear weapons will founder unless there is a determined effort to strengthen the relationships, institutions and dialogue and other processes that preserve stability . . . .

- Action to educate and inform publics about the nuclear threat: sustained public education programs and information campaigns, aimed at exposing young people in particular to the acute dangers posed by nuclear weapons and associated technology, and informing publics of the cost to governments of maintaining nuclear arsenals – at least $100 billion annually – and the opportunity cost this represents in terms of foregone expenditure elsewhere, especially in developing countries.  Visit www.a-pln.org for more details GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NUKE ABOLITION

India Set to Take Lead

By Shastri Ramachandaran* NEW DELHI - The Government of India appears to be in right earnest about taking the lead in pursuing universal disarmament. The renewed vigour – for reviving the climate and conditions wherein the basic ideas and objectives of nuclear disarmament can be advanced – is evident in a series of engagements being lined up to carry forward former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi's Action Plan (RGAP) for a nuclearweapons-free world order.

The Plan, mooted in 1988 and known as 'RGAP 88', attracted much global attention when it was launched as the logical culmination of the Six NationFive Continent Initiative to pre-empt the outbreak of nuclear war at a time when the confrontationist rhetoric of the two superpowers was at its peak.

India's late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi could not succeed in making the United Nations General Assembly accept his idea in 1988.

Now, 23 years later, RGAP 88 has acquired new life with the Informal Group on RGAP coming out with its 284-page report in August 2011. Its nomenclature, 'Informal Group', can be misleading as there is nothing informal about it. On the contrary the IG, set up by India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in October 2010, is the Prime Minister's Advisory Group to revitalize the RGAP on Disarmament.

Headed by former Union Minister and Member of Parliament Mani Shankar Aiyar, a career foreign service officerturned-politician who was close to Rajiv Gandhi, the Group includes distinguished diplomats, strategic affairs and nuclear experts and academics.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had set up the Informal Group in the wake of US President Barack Obama's speech in April 2009, in which he spoke about "America's commitment to seek peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons". President Obama, who deserves credit for being the first head of a nuclear-weapon state to commit himself to a nuclear-weapon-free world, had warned of the dangers of proliferation. He spelled out that the risk of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists was "the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War." The report, which recommends action on how best the idea of universal disarmament can be carried forward, is premised on the realisation that possession of nuclear weapons has not resulted in a (greater) sense of security to India. The case for moving towards a nuclear weapon-free world is more compelling today than during the Cold War because more states have nuclear weapons and more could be tempted to join. Therefore, the report has called for a massive campaign within the country to spread awareness of the dangers of nuclear conflict and a terrorist nuclear attack.

Drawing attention to the fact that India faced the biggest and most tangible threats, whether by way of a nuclear attack or nuclear terrorism, the report argued that "the best security for India lies in universal nuclear disarmament".

The members of the Advisory Group acknowledged explicitly that they drew confidence from the US support to nuclear abolition, which was not forthcoming in 1988.  Picture above: Rajiv Gandhi (right) in 1984 | Wikimedia Commons

*The author, an independent political and international affairs commentator based in New Delhi, is a former Editor of Sunday Mail, has worked with leading newspapers in India and abroad, including China, Denmark and Sweden. He was Senior Editor & Writer with China Daily and Global Times in Beijing. For nearly 20 years before that he was a senior editor with The Times of India and The Tribune.

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NUKE ABOLITION The report, which was presented to the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister S M Krishna recommends, as the first step for revival of RGAP 88, the appointment of a Special Coordinator with the mandate to work out a consensus for constituting a committee on nuclear disarmament.

Seven-point Roadmap The report contains a seven-point roadmap with 14 recommendations, which includes India reiterating its commitment to "eliminating its own arsenal as part of a universal, non-discriminatory and verifiable global process"; promoting consensus on reducing salience of nuclear weapons in security doctrines, No-First Use and binding negative security assurances; "keep the fires burning" in the Conference on Disarmament to press for discussions aimed at mobilising countries for total elimination of nuclear weapons; and, thereafter, moving to a Convention banning the use or threat of nuclear weapons. These are towards clearing the decks for "negotiating a Nuclear Weapons Convention that would India's Mani Shankar Aiyar (left) with Global Security Institute's discuss a world without nuclear weapons in a specified timeJonathan Granoff (right) | Credit: GSI frame."

The report recommends that India – as a State with Nuclear Weapons (SNW) which is resolved to maintain a credible minimum nuclear deterrent – should initiate bilateral dialogues on disarmament with all the countries possessing nuclear weapons. To sharpen the advocacy of disarmament, the report calls for the government's active participation in civil society initiatives, strengthening the Disarmament Division in the Ministry of External Affairs and raising the country's profile in the UNGA. The Group wants the Government of India to take the lead in global efforts for elimination of nuclear weapons, bringing to the issue the moral force of 60 years of campaigning for the cause and its growing clout in the global arena. The report argues that the time is ripe for India to revive its traditional championing of disarmament. Besides, the prevailing global climate is viewed to be opportune because processes for reduction of nuclear arsenals are gaining.

The new dimensions that the report focuses upon are the altered and favourable international climate for a disarmament campaign, the US support for nuclear abolition, the Indian government's forthright commitment to take the lead and a prescription of engagements for pursing the cause within the country and through bilateral, regional and international exercises beginning January 2012. This prescription forms part of the sequenced stages.

The fact that the Chairman of the Group, Mani Shankar Aiyar has begun acting on the proposed roadmap within the country and at the international level testifies to the earnestness of the efforts underway.

India at Conference in New York At the international level, UN Day (October 24) this year provided an apt platform to draw attention to the report. At a conference organised in New York by the Global Security Institute, the East West Institute and the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation, speakers, including UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Aiyar, made a strong pitch for eliminating nuclear weapons.

The conference is a landmark not for the perorations but as a stage for revival of the campaign to build a new awareness for nuclear abolition. The high-level conference also turned the spotlight on the Secretary General’s Five Point Proposal, a comprehensive agenda for eliminating nuclear weapons, first presented three years ago.

Update Bringing IDN up to date on developments following the presentation of the report to the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Dr Vidya Shankar Aiyar who serves as Advisor to the Informal Group said that India’s National Security Advisor, Shivshankar Menon, had been most encouraging in his support to the initiatives proposed in the Report.

The Group's Chairman, Mani Shankar Aiyar, is now working to schedule a meeting with senior officials of the Ministry of External Affairs in the presence of the Foreign Minister. This is in preparation for a national-level conference that the Advisory Group, together with the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), plans to convene in January 2012. This national conference is expected to bring together the community of strategic affairs specialists, experts on nuclear and disarmament issues and think tanks.

Thereafter, the Advisory Group, according to Dr Vidya Shankar Aiyar, proposes to hold conferences in the neighbourhood and develop a level of regional cohesion before bringing around the Permament Five (P-5) of the UN Security Council for developing an international platform.  GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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SAARC SPECIAL

Priorities for SAARC-China Partnerships – Part 1 of 2

By Nihal Rodrigo* COLOMBO – “Building Bridges”, the over-arching theme of the 17th SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit which was held in the Maldives on November 10 and 11, was endorsed as an important goal for the association’s future orientation.

The Addu Declaration (named for the site of the summit) welcomed the theme, and highlighted “the importance of bridging differences, creating better understanding and promoting amity and mutually beneficial and comprehensive cooperation in order to promote effective linkages and connectivity for greater movement of people, enhanced investment and trade in the region.”

This positive and inclusive approach provides the basis for increased two-way traffic, or closer cooperation, within the association itself, as well as with other nations

including, for instance, regional neighbour China.

SAARC was established only in 1985, unlike neighbouring ASEAN, which began functioning in 1967. The delayed start-up was caused by territorial disputes and unsettled border issues, many of them the lingering legacies of the colonial period, as well as by perceptions of power disparities among South Asia’s states.

In order to deter open bilateral conflicts and to encourage practical regional economic cooperation beneficial to all, the SAARC Charter excluded “bilateral and contentious” issues from being taken up at its meetings. Decisions need to be taken on the basis of unanimity. When bilateral and contentious issues have arisen, they have even delayed summit meetings.

Pragmatic approaches now generally prevail and persistent bilateral issues, when they do emerge, are mostly dealt with by the countries concerned in close encounters of the quiet kind, not to disturb the potential for beneficial, wider consultations on regional matters of common concern.

With the enhancement of pragmatic regional confidence and interest in drawing on valuable external linkages, requests of outside states and organizations for observer status in SAARC have been sensibly managed.

Good Omen The Declaration adopted at the 15th SAARC summit (Colombo, August 2008), following consensual approval, welcomed Australia, China, Iran, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mauritius , Myanmar, the United States of America as well as the European Union as Observers. SAARC “appreciated” their participation.

The summit also approved in principle Guidelines for Cooperation with the Observers, looking forward to working with them in the common pursuit of “a Partnership of Growth of the People of South Asia”, the theme of the Summit.

Revised guidelines for cooperation with Observers, that were subsequently approved, indicated the criteria for their participation as well as “modalities” for consideration of projects and their implementation. Financial contributions to the SAARC Development Fund (headquarters for which have now been set up in Bhutan) have also been approved and are being received, including an initial grant of $300,000 from China – a positive omen, no doubt, of potential further collaboration.

Strong Rationale The theme for the summit in Maldives is an extension and elaboration of the theme of Connectivity which Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh promoted. The programs of a regional organization, however practical, well planned and implemented they may be, cannot thrive or develop in solitary isolation, particularly now, given the globalization, both beneficial and baneful, currently in progress.

The Colombo summit significantly directed the SAARC mechanisms “to embody in their programs and projects, a strong focus on better connectivity not only within South Asia, but also between the region and the rest of the world”.  *The writer, a retired Sri Lanka Foreign Service officer, was Secretary General of SAARC, Foreign Secretary, Sri Lanka, and Ambassador to China. He was Coordinating Secretary for the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) at Sri Lanka’s permanent mission to the UN during the country’s chairmanship of NAM.

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

SAARC SPECIAL The Asian region, which includes China and India, represents well over a third of the total world population. Languishing bilateral issues, which have not disappeared, do surface between the two countries. However, the rationale for closer cooperation between the two is overwhelming, not only in bilateral terms, but also in terms of SAARC, the rest of Asia and the wider global picture.

Historic Changes The United States National Intelligence Council (USNIC) produces for each four year period, a report which is a sort a sort of frank horoscope on the nature, characteristics and direction of the evolving global situation. The current report, entitled “Global Trends to 2025: a Transformed World” has projected the world moving into a period of “historic changes”, including the transfer of “global wealth and economic power, roughly from West to East”.

Its previous four-year survey had already anticipated SAARC’s India and its neighbor, China as “the powers that could transform the geo-political scenario”. From the USNIC report, this trend was popularized by Newsweek and other journals and has gained currency.

India and China recently celebrated the 55th Anniversary of the five Principles of Panchaseel that were originally enunciated as a confidence-builder in the context of an economic Treaty between them in 1954. These principles subsequently also provided inspiration for the Afro-Asian Bandung Conference of 1955 and the Non-Alignment Movement established in 1961.

Manmohan Singh and his counterpart China’s Premier Wen Jia Bao in 2008 signed what they called “A Shared Vision for the 21st Century”. In this document, they accepted “a significant historical responsibility” to ensure “comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development in Asia and the world as a whole” - one avoiding “drawing lines on the grounds of ideologies and values, or on geographical criteria (which are) not conducive to peaceful and harmonious development”.

This has augured well for SAARC-China engagement in that India some years back had reservations on external linkages being considered by SAARC. Seven E’s The China-India nexus is now being widely analysed, discussed and written about in academic and think-tank circles – sometimes in confirmation, or in contempt or cynicism and sometimes with nervousness as well.

However, the fact remains that there is a strong rationale and confidence within SAARC to reach out beyond the subregion, to China and the wider world beyond, as well, considering the global changes and challenges affecting South

Asia. The major areas of change could be conveniently categorized as the Seven “E”s: Economy, Environment, Ecology, Energy, Emigration, Extremism and Extra-national threats.

The priorities and possibilities of SAARC working together with China in dealing with many of these convoluted, interconnected aspects need analysis.

We need to engage frankly on the priorities and practical possibilities in SAARC-China consultation, cooperation and collaboration. Deliberations within countries can be valuable forums through which recommendations for our Governments to take into consideration can emerge.

The China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), in collaboration with Sri Lanka’s Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), has already held an event involving SAARC countries and China, with some government participation as well.

Recommendations from that “encounter” were forwarded to the host country of the 15th SAARC Summit (in Colombo) which found them useful. Other such symposiums, such as that held in Yunnan last July can maintain the momentum of interest and productive analysis.

In 1999 China’s former Deputy Foreign Minister, Wang Yi (now a senior political figure in Chongqing) visited the SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu to discuss China-SAARC relations.

Subsequently, Sri Lanka’s Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies and the CIIS co-organised conferences in China and Sri Lanka to develop the relationship before China became an Observer in SAARC. Whatever consensual understandings are reached at exploratory deliberations need to be conveyed to the governments concerned. The current Secretary-General of SAARC, Uz Fathimath Dhiyana Saeed, who is a Maldivian herself, has visited capitals of the SAARC countries to consult with them prior to the current summit.

The 2010 summit in Thimphu welcomed her appointment particularly in view of ongoing initiatives in promoting gender equality and women’s empowerment through regional cooperation.

That summit also decided to establish a South Asia Forum, within the SAARC’s formal process, for the “generation of debate, discussion and exchange of ideas on South Asia and its development in the future”. It is also to function through “public-private partnerships” and include eminent personalities of diverse The first meeting of the South Asia Forum which explored the subject “Integration of South Asia: Moving Towards a South Asian Economic Union” took place in New Delhi in September 2011, and some of the ideas generated will no doubt influence the ideas exchanged at the summit in the Maldives.

END OF PART1 

We need to engage frankly on the priorities and practical possibilities in SAARC-China consultation, cooperation and collaboration. Deliberations within countries can be valuable forums through which recommendations for our Governments to take into consideration can emerge.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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SAARC SPECIAL

People-To-People Contact Works Well – Part 2 of 2

By Nihal Rodrigo* COLOMBO - At the inauguration of the 16th SAARC summit in Bhutan in 2010, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya stated that, “in a spirit of equality and mutual benefit”, China is willing to conduct dialogue and exchanges to expand practical cooperation with SAARC. He particularly mentioned human resources training, poverty alleviation, disaster relief action, economic affairs and media exchanges.

Chinese bilateral cooperation in all these activities is already proceeding with many SAARC countries together with other economic activities: For example, infrastructure connectivity both locally, as in Sri Lanka; as well as for international east-west connectivity across the Indian Ocean.

Without disturbing the bilateral aspects, which are important in their relation to the specific needs of individual countries, SAARC-wide programs need to be pursued by China as well. The contributions made to the SAARC Development Fund by China and helpful facilities for trade promotion in Chinese Fairs and Exhibitions are examples in this regard.

Broad Participation All these areas of regional interaction and exchanges need to be developed within the parameters of the SAARC Charter with no dissenting voices from among the eight member states. These need not affect bilateral engagements of individual SAARC states with China. Consultations with the SAARC Secretary General will also provide excellent means to work out region-wide cooperation.

In dealing with a major SAARC priority to enhance economic development in the region, in addition to cooperation between the SAARC Governments and China, corporate entities such as the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SCCI) and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) play a major role which can be enhanced.

The Memorandum of Understanding for Development of the China-South Asia Business Council as a Mechanism for Cooperation signed this year between the SCCI and the CCPIT, is a priority action already initiated and developing.

Here, too, engagement and consultations with the SAARC Secretary General would also be worthwhile.

Exchanges with South Asian regional economic research organizations, universities, and institutes of policy studies, are essential for China to obtain a direct, first-hand, in situ perception of the development necessities of South Asia.

In June of this year, the 6th China-South Asia Business Forum was held in Kunming through SCCI and CCPIT cooperation. Sri Lankan Prime Minister, D.M. Jayarathna said on the occasion that “China and South Asian countries can bring about visible change in the global economy through the promotion of cross-border trade with mutual trust, and seize enormous untapped opportunities”. He emphasized the priority in exchanges in science and technology, energy, agro-business and the tourism sector as well as more Chinese investment.  Bhutan Prime Miniser Lyonchhen Jigmi Y. Thinleywith journalists | Credit: SAARC Summit Bhutan

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

SAARC SPECIAL Tariff Help The trade volume between China and South Asia increased from around $25 billion in 2005 to $80 billion in 2010. One major priority, and what one hopes is a possibility too, is to enhance the South Asian component in exports to China. Balanced trade exchanges would require China to consider certain tariff concessions and other incentives to SAARC countries in the mutual long term interest.

Greater opportunities and favourable conditions for promoting South Asian exports at Trade Fairs is also essential.

Those held in Kunming and Kashghar in Xinjiang have demonstrated their effectiveness.

Government-to-government exchanges on various ramifications of globalization are proceeding and need no specific comment. At UN and other international Conferences national delegations from South Asia continue consulting with each other and with China.

The Boao Conferences in which most South Asian countries have participated provide scope for interaction, and indeed being kept aware of diverse world-wide perceptions on various aspects of current developments.

Non-Traditional Threats Contemporary developments also include diverse nontraditional threats which affect particular regions. Terrorism that crosses borders is one such devious threat which virtually all SAARC countries need to overcome. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in which Sri Lanka is a Dialogue Partner and some other SAARC countries are Observers alia, deals inter alia with what China calls the Three Evils of Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism.

The Indian Ocean region in which SAARC is placed, is particularly vulnerable to security threats. Some dangers have an additional sinister dimension in their often hidden links with non-traditional security threats including people-smuggling, drug-trafficking, gun-running, cyber fraud and piracy.

Front Groups Many of these aspects are linked to regional, and even international underworld criminal cartels which support terrorist groups for their causes as well as for their own profit. They have, for example, links with the residue of the terrorist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) which have re-branded themselves

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

to be sanitized as “legitimate liberation groups”. Even Chinese vessels close to Sri Lanka’s coast were once attacked by the LTTE some years back, causing a heavy death toll.

Uighur separatist groups have their front organization, the socalled 'World Uighur Congress' like the rump of LTTE supporters’ and their 'Transitional Government of Tamil Eelam'. The LTTE, according to an intelligence group outside Sri Lanka, even provided intelligence to the pirates of the Somalia’s coast, on the contents and value of ships plying the Indian Ocean.

Pirates are now being pushed away into the central areas of the Indian Ocean due to increased vigilance and security off the eastern African coastal areas. In consequence they have recently attacked, kidnapped for ransom and even killed fishermen from three SAARC countries, India, Maldives and Sri Lanka.

These are aspects that need to be dealt with, including through cooperation with China which is also affected in the Asian region, given the Asia-wide, and even global collaboration of criminal cartels. SAARC has a number of legal instruments against terrorism which could enhance their application to engage Chinese cooperation as well on this common threat.

Personal Touch Finally, mention must be made of people-to-people contact between Sri Lanka and China as directly known to this writer: The largest quantum of financial assistance we received, internationally, in the wake of the tsunami of December 2004 from the People, as distinct from Governments, was from the people of China.

This was partly due to a cultural link which engaged the people. Xu Jing Lei, one of China’s most popular film actresses, after visiting Sri Lanka in the wake of the tsunami, agreed to be Sri Lanka’s Honorary Ambassador for Tourism.

Her appearance at fund-raising events organised by the Sri Lanka Embassy, and her personal appeals to the people of China, to assist Sri Lanka’s recovery from the tsunami, helped immensely not only to increase the number of Chinese tourists visiting the country (exceeding that of Japan) but also to raise the voluntary contributions from Chinese people to the tsunami recovery fund set up in the Sri Lanka Embassy.

Some of the examples of cooperation – bilateral as well as SAARC-wide – already experienced or underway might seem small steps, given the magnitude of the development challenges that confront the region. But, as Lao Tzu wisely pointed out, “a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” [END OF PART 2 of 2] 

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NEW WORLD ORDER

Gorbachev Forum Looks Beyond Messy Today

By Ramesh Jaura MONTPELLIER - "Dangers await only those who do not react to life," he admonished die-hard comrades in the Soviet bloc who were blind to the writing on the wall and ignored that the people's yearning for democratic space was impossible to bridle. Some twenty-five years later, as waves of change pound across Europe's Mediterranean frontiers, he is back in the unofficial political arena warning that gaping cracks in the Old World Order are beyond repair.

"He" is none other than Mikhail Gorbachev, the man who changed the world by triggering "a global political landslide and initiating revolutionary changes" in the now defunct Soviet bloc by deploying 'perestroika', which brought about the end of the Cold War, the breakup of the USSR and his own removal from power.

"If the Russian word 'perestroika' has easily entered the international lexicon, this is due to more than just interest in what is going on in the Soviet Union. Now the whole world needs restructuring, i.e. progressive development, a fundamental change," Gorbachev wrote in 'Perestroika: New Thinking For Our Country and the World'.

Credit: e-vestnik.bg At 80, he stands out as one of the giants of 20th century history, but true to his dictum, "If what you have done yesterday still looks big to you, you haven't done much today," he refuses to rest on his laurels that are amply mixed with thorns.

And he is doing an impressive lot; he is driven by a profound commitment to engaging hearts and minds of eminent political figures, experts, journalists and civil society leaders to raise global awareness of the need to herald a new world order.

Such an order must respond to the wishes "of people who for decades were passive and had no voice (but) have now entered the arena of history," Gorbachev told the international conference on 'Policymakers' Responsibility in a Changing World. The Mediterranean: The Waves of Change.'

Founded and headed by him, the New Policy Forum organized of the conference jointly with the Languedoc-Roussillon Region in Montpellier, southern France, on November 24-25, 2011. It gathered some 60 knowledgeable participants from over 30 countries in Europe, Russia, the United States, Latin America and Asia.

Significantly, the conference featured prominently representatives of the Mediterranean region and Arab countries, including members of the opposition political movements and groups actively involved in the recent upheavals in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt that led to the downfall of dictatorial regimes in those countries.

The conference plenary sessions and panels focused on the origins and initial outcomes of the 'Arab Spring', the relationship between Islam and democracy, the strategic implications of ongoing developments and shifts in Northern Africa for the Mediterranean and the Middle East, and the role the 27-nation European Union and the international community at large could play to encourage and promote democratic transition.

Standstill The conference provided a platform for discussions on the prospects of a dialogue between the world's great civilizations born in the Mediterranean. These were began at the New Policy Forum's previous gatherings in Granada in Spain and Sofia in Bulgaria.

The dialogue will be carried forward at events in 2012, according to the organizers.

It appeared as if time had stood still since December 1988 when Gorbachev said in an address to the United Nations General Assembly: "We are witnessing most profound social change. Whether in the East or the South, the West or the North, hundreds of millions of people, new nations and states, new public movements and ideologies have moved to the forefront of history. ďƒ† 20

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NEW WORLD ORDER "Broad-based and frequently turbulent popular move-ments have given expression, in a multidimensional and contradictory way, to a longing for independence, democracy and social justice. The idea of democratizing the entire world order has become a powerful socio-political force.

"At the same time, the scientific and technological revolution has turned many economic, food, energy, environmental, information and population problems, which only recently we treated as national or regional ones, into global problems. Thanks to the advances in mass media and means of transportation, the world seems to have become more visible and tangible.

International communication has become easier than ever before."

But in fact the time had not stood still. It's just that the wave of change in Eastern Europe had taken long to break the barriers until it reached across Europe's Mediterranean frontiers – and once it did the 'morning after'– first Tunisia in December 2010 ousting longtime President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, it could not be halted.

Since then, as Gorbachev puts it, tens of thousands of people in the Arab countries are taking to the streets to defy the rulers and the elites that lost touch with the reality, to protest corruption and injustice and to demand a life of dignity and democratic change, an end to the dependence and backwardness to which authoritarian regimes condemned the Arab world.

Arab Waves of Change It was not surprising therefore that the conference was guided by "the intention to analyze the events (the Arab waves of change) as part of a much more global political landslide which started twenty years ago and was initiated by revolutionary changes in the former Soviet bloc (provoked by Gorbachev's Perestroika) which brought about the end of the Cold war, the breakup of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the previous Old World Order," said Andrei Grachev Chairman of New Policy Forum's Academic Advisory Council.

This was a part of the two-fold "key message of the conference as expressed in the opening and closing statements of President Gorbachev and largely confirmed by the very rich debate," said Grachev.

There was also an "attempt to analyze the evolution – from 'Roots to Fruits' – of exceptional political events and the process underway," which are "unprecedented, since the period of anti-colonial struggles," resulting in "the transformation of the political, social and strategic landscape of the Arab world," Grachev told IDN. Several conference participants agreed with Grachev that the mass movements are faced with domestic and external danger, the danger that these processes could be hijacked by self-serving, undemocratic forces and that the fruits of the peoples' rush to freedom would be stolen by the forces and parties 'of order' – whether of a military or of extremist Islamic variety.

"When we formulated the agenda of our conference six months ago, choosing the theme of The Waves of Change in the Mediterranean, we mostly had in mind the developments on the South Coast of the Mediterranean Sea," said Gorbachev. "Now, however, we see that the North Coast too is on fire. A crisis, which is not just economic but also political, has hit this area – from Greece to Portugal and Spain, spreading to Italy yesterday and, perhaps, even to France tomorrow."

Indeed, as Gorbachev noted: "The whole of Europe, which only yesterday looked like an oasis of stability and an example to be emulated by others, including the Arab East, is engaged in an agonizing search for a way out of the most severe crisis in the history of the European Union."  President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev during the Moscow Summit on June 1, 1988.

Credit: Wikimedia Commons GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NEW WORLD ORDER Things fall apart . . .

At the same time, the days when U.S. leadership was essential to global stability and development are coming to an end. As Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser wrote in December 2008 in an opinion column for The New York Times on the eve of President Obama assuming office, "For the first time in history almost all of humanity is politically activated, politically conscious and politically interactive. Global activism is generating a surge in the quest for cultural respect and economic opportunity in a world scarred by memories of colonial or imperial domination. This pertains to yet another fundamental change: The 500-year global domination by the Atlantic powers is coming to an end . . ."

Three years later, this analysis is proving both authentic and challenging. But the presence of a weak superpower does not automatically lead to multi-polarity. Nor does it cleanse mind-sets of militarism and violent conflicts. In fact, situation is, as the Irish poet and playwright, William Butler Yeats wrote in 1919 in the aftermath of the First World War: ". . . Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold . . ."

A considerable part of the blame for the unenviable and vulnerable situation in which Europe and the United States have manipulated themselves is that governments abandoned the primacy of politics, says Roberto Savio, founder and President Emeritus of Inter Press Service (IPS) news agency and publisher of Other-News.info.

"What we need today is a paradigm to diagnose and address the numerous and grave global problems that face all of us but which are experienced differently in the various regions of the world. We need to reempower political leaders," adds Savio who is also a member of the New Policy Forum's Academic Advisory Council. He has spelt out the global community's "Failures and Prospects Up to 2025" in an erudite paper written in 2007.

The Montpellier conference heard several participants stressing the role of the civil society, which Flavio Lotti, an Italian activist, said had assumed immense importance in view of the rapid erosion in the credibility of institutions of the state.

In Transition Summing up the two-day long intensive discussions, Gorbachev said: "The world is in transition. Can it be said that this transition has a common vector everywhere? I would say yes. But this common vector is not a direct line. It is affected by the specific conditions, by the history, culture and evolution of different nations and regions.

"Moreover, can it be said that this common vector is from authoritarianism to democracy? Opinions differ. My view is that the overall direction is towards democracy, but not of a 'one kind fits all' variety. The Arab Moslem specificity will manifest itself in such forms as will naturally emerge in this region if others do not impose ‘the only correct solution’ or try to 'slash and burn'."

And yet the conference had thrown up more questions than it had answered. "But correctly formulated questions are very important. They are the beginning of the road that leads to answers," Gorbachev added.

So that in-depth analyses presented in Montpellier find a wider outreach, the New Policy Forum is "inclined to move along the road which will allow us to start producing regular (annual) analytical reports – kind of State of the World, encouraging both the collective reflections on the features of the new emerging reality of the Global world and formulating practical recommendations for the politicians," Andrei Grachev told IDN. "Yet I would say we are still at the beginning of this road since we need to accumulate more elements of analyses in order to be able to overview the whole world scene," he added, underscoring the widely held view that the world of today is complex, overstressed and changing with unprecedented speed.

And yet, most of the participants – who included former foreign ministers such as Alexander Bessmertnykh (Soviet Union), Hubert Védrine (France) and Kavan Jan (Czech Republic) as well as previous UNESCO Director-General Federico Mayor, one-time Turkish Prime Minister Mezul Yilmaz and former Egyptian Finance Minister Samir Radwan – agreed: "What's needed is an all-out effort to build new foundations of global politics and economics, involving a critical reappraisal of values and a common search for ways towards sustainable development."

A New World Order – based on Global Governance and universal values – that Gorbachev had proposed in the 1980s? A New World Order in which all members of the global community "resolutely discard old stereotypes and motivations nurtured by the Cold War, and give up the habit of seeking each other's weak spots and exploiting them in their own interests?"  22

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NEW WORLD ORDER

Of Willy Brandt, Development and Peace

By Jutta Wolf "Now grows together what belongs together."

Though this famous public statement by Willy Brandt in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall pointed to new vistas opening up for Germans living in post-war divided Germany, it held out the hope that the world would warm up to genuine international cooperation obstructed by the Cold War chill.

Three years before the Berlin Wall came down, the Foundation for Development and Peace (known as SEF by its German acronym) had been set up at the initiative of Nobel laureate (1971) and former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt.

Its founders indeed undertook a historic mission: "We are united by the vision of a world without borders and without prejudice, without hunger or fear of destruction. We know that this vision will not become a reality today or tomorrow. But we wish to commit ourselves to making our way, step by step, towards that goal. The future of humankind depends on regarding ourselves as world citizens and on our acting with a sense of global responsibility."

"We share the vision of the founders," says Karin Kortmann, former state secretary in the German ministry of economic cooperation and current chair of the Foundation's Executive Committee, as it celebrates its twenty-fifth anniversary. Significantly, the Foundation was set up in what the United Nations had designated the 'International Year of Peace.'

The same year, recalls Kortmann, Mikhail Gorbachev at the 27th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party CPSU in February 1986 launched the momentous 'Glasnost' (openness), 'Perestroika' (restructuring) and 'Uskorenie' (acceleration of economic development.

'Brandt Report' The SEF derived impetus from a landmark report titled 'North-South: A Programme for Survival', published in 1980 by the Independent Commission on International Development Issues, also known as the North-South Commission, chaired by Willy Brandt.

Popularly known as the 'Brandt Report', it was acknowledged as the most comprehensive and broad based analysis of the various issues of global development. It set out a vision for genuine partnership between North and South, and called for a new definition of North-South relations.

The report received much publicity and wide ranging acceptance as the best way forward for governments worldwide to reduce the growing economic disparities between the rich North and developing South. But the proposals put forward by its eminent and diverse range of members from industrialized and major developing countries were never adopted by governments due to the Cold War and a resulting lack of political will to act on these compelling issues.

In 1985, Brandt was honoured in New York for his commitment to the Third World. At the award ceremony, he declared that national attempts at crisis management were no longer an adequate response to the global dimension of the problems: "The globalization of risks and challenges – war, chaos, self-destruction – requires a kind of 'world domestic policy' that extends not just beyond the parish pump, but also far beyond national borders."  GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NEW WORLD ORDER Brandt availed of the Third World award to set up the Development and Peace Foundation – with the support of some of the leading German political thinkers, development experts and academics such as Kurt Biedenkopf, Ralf Dahrendorf, Uwe Holtz and Dieter Senghaas.

Especially after the end of the Cold War, there was widespread hope that "a just and peaceful world is attainable now," says Michèle Roth, the Foundation's Executive Director. This hope is spreading out again today, given the upheaval in the Middle East, she adds, which was an important reason for the SEF to avail of its 25th anniversary celebrations in Berlin on November 24, 2011 to review Brandt's vision in the light of new challenges, most of which owe their roots to old challenges.

'North-South: A Programme for Survival' 'North-South: A Programme for Survival' presented the shared-interests thesis and articulated policy options. It made recommendations to transcend problems associated with the operations of transnational corporations, food and agricultural production and distribution, declining terms of trade for primary commodity exporters, Northern protectionism, high energy prices, population growth and movements, the international financial and monetary system, unsustainable foreign debt loads, low levels of development assistance, and the high costs of the arms race.

While most of these issues continue to plague developing economies, some have over the years inundated the industrialized world.

The Report's central pillar was an emergency program to end poverty in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) that would require an additional $4 billion in aid flows per year over twenty years. To meet this goal developed nations were challenged to make foreign aid equivalent to 1 percent of their GDP by the year 2000. Between 2001 and 2008, the aid given to LDCs amounted to less than 0.2 percent of the developed countries Gross National Product.

According to the UN, 75 percent of the population in 48 countries with a total population of 880 million makes less than $2 a day or less than $900 a year. These countries continue to have the lowest per capita incomes and the highest population growth rates. They are the most off track in the achievement of the internationally agreed development goals, including the UN millennium development goals, and are at the bottom of the human development index rankings. Among the LDCs, 33 are located in Africa, 14 in the Asia-Pacific region and one in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The North-South report also called for a new international division of labour to redistribute productive resources and incomes to the Global South. As well, the report advocated the creation of a comprehensive international trade organization that would incorporate development concerns. The record of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has been far from commendable.

In 2005 the Commission for Africa led by British Prime Minister Tony Blair sought to further Brandt's vision by reasserting the view that world leaders have a mutual interest in African development and updating Brandt's policy prescriptions – with hardly encouraging results.

With this in view, the Foundation provides an international forum for a high-level exchange on peace and development issues, advances political agenda-setting on the challenges of globalization, builds bridges between political decision-makers and practitioners, academic experts, key figures from the business community and civil society actors, presents tangible policy recommendations for political and civil society actors, addresses political strategies of international, national, regional and local actors, integrates the views of the Global South into policy debates, and offers access to a large network of international experts.

The cross-party Foundation works on a number of longer-term project series on specific issues such as Global Governance, Global Ressource Management - A Challenge for Peace, Development and Environmental Policy as well as Human Security and Responsibility to Protect.

The SEF has close cooperation with the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF), founded in 1990. INEF is an Institute of the University of Duisburg-Essen (Faculty of Social Sciences). It is the only German research institute working on questions at the intersection of peace and development and combines basic with applied research and public policy consulting.

A research department of the University of Duisburg-Essen, the Institute has an excellent reputation both at home and abroad as a think-tank on world affairs. The aim of the Institute, headed first by Franz Nuscheler and meanwhile by Tobias Debiel, is to help shape the national, European and international debate on global interdependences and Global Governance, and provide impetus for political action based on global responsibility.

Its major areas of activity include a research programme on key aspects of Global Governance; studies on development strategies and global structural policy and on political violence and non-military conflict transformation; and projects on the dynamics and development of the world economy. The INEF and its research staff are also actively involved in various leading international research networks.

The INEF promotes the Foundation's activities by providing academic support for collaborative projects. These include, in particular, GLOBAL TRENDS and the joint work on issues of the ONE World and Policy Paper series.  24

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NEWS ANALYSIS

Durban Climate Meet's Bright and Dark Sides

By Ramesh Jaura The outcome of the Durban global climate talks, which dragged on for 14 long days, has been declared as disappointing or encouraging depending on the perceptions of beholders – some of whom are setting their sights on the half-empty glass and others who prefer to focus on the half-full glass.

The United Nations, however, is expectedly keen to provide a balanced view highlighting positive aspects and at the same time cautioning of risks involved if what has been agreed is not translated into action by all countries and institutions involved.

The 17th conference of parties (COP17) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which ended December 11, 2011 in Durban, South Africa's third largest city, agreed after intense negotiations a package of measures that would eventually force all the world's polluters to take legally binding action to slow the pace of global changing.

The package agreed comprises four main elements: a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, the design of a Green Climate Fund and a mandate to get all countries in 2015 to sign a deal that would force them to cut emissions no later than 2020, as well as a workplan for 2012.

"Taken together, these agreements represent an important advance in our work on climate change," UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon said, calling on countries to "quickly implement these decisions and to continue working together in the constructive spirit evident in Durban."

In a statement issued by his spokesperson, Ban said the set of measures agreed "represent a significant agreement that will define how the international community will address climate change in the coming years." The new accord, he added, is "essential for stimulating greater action and for raising the level of ambition and the mobilization of resources to respond to the challenges of climate change."

UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said: "The outcomes of Durban provide a welcome boost for global climate action. They reflect the growing, and in some quarters unexpected, determination of countries to act collectively. This provides a clear signal and predictability to economic planners, businesses and investors about the future of low-carbon economies. A number of specific commitments agreed in Durban also indicate that previous decisions on financing, technology and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) are moving to implementation."

Steiner added: "The big question many will ask is how this will translate into actual emission reductions and by when? Whatever answer will emerge in the coming months, Durban has kept the door open for the world to respond to climate change based on science and common sense rather than political expediency."

Explaining, UNEP spokesperson Nick Nuttall said in a statement: "The 'Bridging the Emissions Gap' report, coordinated by UNEP with climate modeling centres across the globe, underlined in the run-up to Durban that the best available science indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to peak before 2020."

The report also highlighted that annual global emissions need to be around 44 Gig tonnes of C02 equivalent by around that date in order to have a running chance of achieving a trajectory that halves those emissions by 2050 below 2005 levels.

The report concluded that bridging the divide is economically and technologically do-able if nations raise their emission reduction ambitions and adopt more stringent low-carbon policies across countries and sectors.

"The key question of the Durban outcome is whether what has been decided will match the science and lead to a peaking of global emissions before 2020 to maintain the world on a path to keep a temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius," Nuttall said in a statement.

By some estimates, the statement said, the cost of cutting emissions will be four times more beyond 2020 than they would cost today with the price rising over time. It is also estimated, the statement added, that the current emissions trajectories, unless urgently reversed, could lead to a global temperature rise of 3.5 degrees Celsius or more sometime by the end of the century.

Steiner added: "The movements forward on the Cancun agreements (COP16) in respect to adaptation and climate technology institutions are welcome, as is the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund."

"But the core question of whether more than 190 nations can cooperate in order to peak and bring down emissions to the necessary level by 2020 remains open – it is a high risk strategy for the planet and its people," he cautioned. ďƒ†

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NEWS ANALYSIS "Nationally many governments are acting as are companies, cities and individual citizens. In 2010, over US$210 billion was invested in renewable energy, for example. But this bottom-up approach needs a top to which it can aim – and a time line for building that top is narrowing ever year," Steiner said buttressing his cautious attitude.

India and China: Critical Role The intensity of the negotiations was highlighted by an impassioned speech by India's Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan that capped the finale of the UN climate summit which concluded with a Durban Package, after she warned that India "will never be intimidated by any threat or pressure".

"Natarajan's speech ensured that India's main concern – the inclusion of the concept of equity in the fight against climate change – became part of the package," reported the Economic Times.

The COP17 plenary session came to a halt following row between Natarajan and European Union (EU) Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard after objection over agreements reached behind closed doors.

India had wanted a "legal outcome" as the third option, but Hedegaard said this would put countries' sincerity in doubt. That set off Natarajan, who roared: "We have shown more flexibility than virtually any other country. But equity is the centrepiece, it cannot be shifted. This is not about India.

"Does fighting climate change mean we have to give up on equity? We have agreed to protocol and legal instrument. What's the problem in having one more option? India will never be intimidated by any threat or any kind of pressure. What's this legal instrument? How do I give a blank cheque?"

According to reports, as Natarajan finished her speech amid a thunderous ovation from a hall packed with thousands of delegates from 194 governments, observers and the media, some countries backed the EU but China strongly supported India.

Xie Zhenhua, the vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, who headed the Chinese delegation, pointed out that the developing countries like India and China were "already doing much more than developed countries" against global warming.

Conference president and South Africa's Foreign Minister Maite Nkoane Mashabane then halted the session and asked EU and India to go into a huddle there and then. "Unprecedented scenes followed beyond midnight as negotiators from all countries mobbed Natarajan and Hedegaard and snapped photographs, with no sign of exhaustion even at 2 in the morning," reported Economic Times.

"U.S. and Chinese chief negotiators joined the huddle too. More frenzied applause indicated an agreement had finally been reached. When the session reconvened, Natarajan announced that India had agreed to a change of wording in the third option 'in a spirit of flexibility and accommodation'. Hedegaard thanked India."

Commenting, the Chinese delegation said the conference had produced "progressive and balanced outcome." Xie Zhenhua, head of the Chinese delegation, told Xinhua that the outcome is fully in accordance with the mandate of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Roadmap.

The outcome, he added, is also in line with the two-track negotiation process and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. "The conference made decisions on the arrangement of the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, which is the most concerned issue of developing countries," Xie noted.  Picture: India's Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan with Janez Potočnik, European Commissioner for the Environment | ec.europa.eu

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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NEWS ANALYSIS "Also, there is an important progress on the finance issue, the establishment of the Green Climate Fund," he added. However, Xie said, the Durban conference did not accomplish the completion of negotiations under the Bali Roadmap.

"The implementation of the Cancun Agreements and the Durban Outcome will not be achieved in a short run," Xie said.

"A heavy load of work ahead on the post-2020 arrangement needs to be done in order to enhance the implementation of the Convention."

Xie also cautioned that some developed countries are reluctant to reduce emissions and support developing countries with financial and technical aid. "The lack of political will is a main element that hinders cooperation on addressing climate change in the international community," he said. "We expect political sincerity from developed countries next year in Qatar."

Xie stressed that China will make further contributions to the global cause of tackling climate change by taking stronger domestic actions and continuing to play an active role in relevant international talks.

New life Agreeing with the UN, IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, said the package agreed in Durban would "sustain current global efforts to reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions and to conclude a new agreement with legal force that would involve all countries in averting the threat of dangerous global climate change."

The agreement on a Green Climate Fund, which is expected to mobilise US$100 a year by 2020, and initial financial pledges offer hope that sufficient finance will flow to deal with climate change impacts, IUCN said.

"We had anticipated that Durban would be where the developed world would raise the bar on their current ambitions and all countries would purposefully commit to the development of a credible roadmap for deep and wide ranging targets for the comprehensive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions," said Stewart Maginnis, IUCN's Director of Environment and Development.

"This has been achieved, and steps have been laid out for a new agreement to be put in place by 2015. A new spirit of compromise spanning the developed and developing countries is an encouraging step forward," IUCN said.

"This comes in the nick of time, as climate change is not going to wait for the negotiations on this new deal to be finalized. The impacts on ecosystems and peoples' lives will continue to become more and more evident and resolving these will come at an ever increasing cost in years to come," IUCN argued.

The Durban Package, according to IUCN, signals "recognition that the world's governments will purposely and comprehensively address the causes of climate change." The final agreement that will involve all countries will have to ensure that climate change mitigation measures are sufficient to meet the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C. The package also makes it clear that national governments will step up their own efforts both to reduce emissions and to adapt to climate change, and to apply "no regrets" solutions while the final architecture of the agreements are hammered out.

There is growing bottom-up demand to manage natural systems better to buy the world's vulnerable communities some

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

much needed breathing space in mitigating and adapting to climate change.

"In this respect it is imperative that national governments continue to take early, no regrets actions, as seen in countries like Rwanda, which earlier this year (2011) committed to a comprehensive border to border restoration of its degraded soils, wetlands and forests," IUCN statement said.

IUCN applauded the momentum that has resulted in a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol and strongly urges Parties to the UNFCCC to move swiftly towards putting in place a new global agreement that has legal force, aiming to stabilize the world’s climate.

Investments in the Green Climate Fund should provide the necessary resources for countries to move ahead with their own efforts. Among these there should be an increased emphasis on building on what already works: the power of intact natural ecosystems, IUCN said.

"Ecosystem- based approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation are cost effective, no-regrets solutions that governments ought to incorporate proactively into national policies and take immediate action to implement on the ground,” added Maginnis, IUCN's Director of Environment and Development.

"Improving the management of river systems, coastal ecosystems, coral reefs, mangroves and forests, and dryland systems can conserve carbon and improve the resilience of communities to deal with both the sudden and long-term consequences of climate change," he said.

Commenting the outcome, Chetan Chauhan wrote in the Hindustan Times on December 2011: "The rich nations used the Green Climate Fund and long-term finance commitment of US$100 billion to push big emitters China, Brazil and India against the wall and woo poorer nations to come out with an agreement having majority of elements they wanted."

Let down In a rather critical reaction, Sarah-Jayne Clifton, Climate Justice Coordinator of Friends of the Earth International (FoEI), said: "Ordinary people have once again been let down by our governments. Led by the U.S., developed nations have reneged on their promises, weakened the rules on climate action and strengthened those that allow their corporations to profit from the climate crisis."

The Kyoto Protocol, the only legally binding framework for emissions reductions, she added, "remains in name only, and the ambition for those emissions cuts remains terrifyingly low."

"The Green Climate Fund," which is intended to facilitate developing countries' efforts towards mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, "has no money and the plans to expand destructive carbon trading move ahead, said Clifton.

"Meanwhile," she added," millions across the developing world already face devastating climate impacts, and the world catapults headlong towards climate catastrophe."

For FoEI's climate justice coordinator, "It is clear in whose interests this deal has been advanced, and it isn't the 99% of people around the world." The noise of corporate polluters has drowned out the voices of ordinary people in the ears of our leaders, she added.  27

NEWS ANALYSIS

Survival Fear Stalks Millions in West Africa

By Jerome Mwanda NAIROBI - Massive leasing of lands, which the government of Mali justifies with the need to "modernize" the country's agriculture, is threatening the survival of populations dependent on the water flows of the Niger River in Mali and in the rest of West Africa, where over 100 million people depend on the waterway for their livelihoods, says a new report.

Africa has been a particular target of land- and water-hungry investors, comprising more than 70 percent of the investors’ demand. They are welcomed with appealing fiscal incentives and strong investor protections in Mali.

The report titled 'Comprendre les Investissements Fonciers en Afrique: Rapport Mali' – 'Understanding Land Investment Deals in Africa: Mali' – points out that at least 544,567 hectares (ha) of fertile land are estimated to have been leased or were under negotiation for lease in Mali by the end of 2010 and that the pace of such large land deals is increasing dramatically.

"The largest investments are foreign controlled and have increased by two-thirds in just one year, between 2009 and 2010," says the report by The Oakland Institute and the National Farmers Organisation Coordination (CNOP) of Mali released at the International Conference on Land Grabs from November 17 to 20, attended by farmer groups and civil society organizations from around the world in Nyeleni, Mali.

This comprehensive report analyses the current trend of agricultural land investments in Mali and informs that despite the limited availability of arable land in Mali and dramatic hunger figures, more than 40 percent of deals will devote land to agrofuel crops, which are unlikely to benefit those suffering from hunger in Mali.

"Local communities affected by the initial operations, such as those of Kolongo or Samana Dugu, oppose the deals and already report serious disruptions and threats to their livelihoods but have little or no opportunities for consultation, compensation or ability to contest operations," the report notes.

"These land acquisitions involve violent and flagrant abuses of human rights," says the report which documents attacks on smallholder populations in the irrigated agricultural zones of the Office du Niger.

"In June 2010, men, women and youth from the Samana Dugu community protested the work of bulldozers and the cutting of hundreds of their trees. About 70 gendarmes were brought in to quell their protest. Protestors were beaten and about 40 of them were arrested, among them 14 women," the report says.

"Most of the large-scale land acquisitions are concentrated in state-owned lands within the large, riverine delta of the Office du Niger, where informal customary rights of the local people are not protected by law, and are not recognized by public officials," adds the report which updates a previous study.

The report is part of the Oakland Institute's seven-country case study project to document and examine land investment deals in Africa – Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia – in order to determine social, economic, and environmental implications of land acquisitions in the developing world.

Based on field research conducted in the "lease areas" between October and November 2010, this study provides new

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and important information on the way land agreements are being negotiated out of public scrutiny and the impact these deals have had on local populations and livelihoods.

"Most of the large agricultural projects are still in early stages, with minimal clearing occurring as of yet. They are still very recent, with contracts signed in the past two to three years, and have not yet become fully operational," finds the report.

It adds: "To date, none of the four case study investments adhere to the World Bank principles for responsible agroinvestment, nor do they conform to the set of core principles and measures laid out by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food."

Besides, there is a serious lack of public disclosure and transparency from government on all aspects of the four land deals. In 2009, the government created the position of Secretary of State in charge of development in the Office du Niger, which formerly fell within the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Agriculture.

Since then, land deals have been negotiated behind closed doors by the Secretary of State and the President Director General (PDG) of the Office. The eminent Malibya deal was reportedly directly negotiated between the Malian and Libyan heads of state.

"Malian authorities keep lease documents out of the public domain. No environmental and social impact studies have been released and it seems unlikely that any had been undertaken as of late 2010," says the report.

"In addition, a systematic lack of consultation with local communities prevails on all four cases. As a result, there is little critical or accurate media coverage of the land deals, meaning that Malians have little information about how much of their farmland has already been leased to large-scale investors. Public awareness lacking, there is no serious publc debate on the land deals," adds the report.

In November 2010, farmers’ associations and civil society groups held the “Kolongotomo Farmers’ Forum on Land Grab in Mali” and produced a list of issues confronting smallholders in Mali as a result of the government’s desire to lease large tracks of fertile lands, in the Office du Niger. The authorities have ignored their critiques as well as demands for transparency and fair treatment.

The report goes on to say: The government of Mali justifies the large-scale leasing of lands with the need to “modernize” Malian agriculture and increase "efficiency." However, promotion of “green revolution” technologies and less labor intensive approaches to agriculture, undermines proven organic efficiencies, fair competition, food/seed sovereignty, and risks aggravating social disparities and hunger issues.

- The structural adjustment programs starting in the 1980s in Mali emphasized policy reforms to encourage foreign investment.

In the past decade, new local structures, staffed and supported by the World Bank, such as the Investment Promotion Agency (API) or the Presidential Investment Council (CPI) have intensified this process. This has placed Mali’s legal framework under the de facto governance of organizations that are not representative or accountable to the Malian population.  GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

NEWS ANALYSIS

China Spells Out a Global Recovery Plan

By Jaya Ramachandran PARIS - Among countries that have moved from the periphery to the core, China has acquired a place of pride in a world that is no longer steered by the industrialized states of yesteryear. President Hu Jintao surfaced from the G20 summit in Cannes, France, on November 3-4 as sagacious leader of a country whose inexorable ascent to the status of a new superpower was speeded up in the aftermath of the international financial crisis in 2008.

The paradigm shift is taking place against the backdrop of a global economic situation in which major economies are experiencing slowdown, acute sovereign debt problems are plaguing some countries, volatility in the international financial markets persists, and emerging markets are under pressure from high inflation.

Besides, as Hu said on November 3 in Cannes, the turbulence in West Asia and North Africa continues, and extreme weather as well as frequent natural disasters have proved to be detrimental to the world economy. Subsequently, the global economic recovery is fraught with instability and uncertainty and encounters growing risks and challenges.

"What has happened since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 shows that we are facing not just an economic and financial crisis," Hu rightly pointed out.

"It is a crisis that has exposed certain deficiencies in the existing institutions and mechanisms, policies and approaches, and ways of development."

This profound and palpable logic is hardly reflected in the 33-point 'final communiqué of the G20 leaders' summit, which French President Nicolas Sarkozy had put under the promising dictum: "New World - New Ideas."

Transcend differences As Hu pointed out in his address to the G20 leaders, the world economy is now at a crossroads and global economic governance faces arduous tasks. "It is imperative that we stand on a higher plane, transcend differences on specific issues, move beyond short-term considerations, and jointly seek ways to overcome the crisis and sustain development," said the Chinese leader.

"As the premier forum for international economic cooperation," Hu added, "the G20 must continue to demonstrate the spirit of standing together in times of adversity and pursuing win-win cooperation. At this critical moment, the G20 must work to address the key problems, boost market confidence, defuse risks and meet challenges, and promote global economic growth and financial stability."

Economic 'Panchsheel' Reminiscent of the 'Panchsheel' – five principles of peaceful existence agreed between China and India in 1954 – Hu spelt out a five-point proposal on what G20 nations need to do to tide over the crisis.

First: Speed up the adjustment of our respective economic structures and endeavor to achieve fairly balanced growth of the global economy. The Chinese President pleaded for introducing new and strong measures to ensure that the fiscal and monetary policies are fully implemented and that funding is channeled into the real economy to boost production and employment.

Displaying an impressive insight into the need for sustainable economic development, Hu called for supporting the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises so as to help them speedily overcome the current difficulties by providing financing and fiscal support and tax incentives, thus laying a solid foundation for promoting economic recovery. "We should fully tap into the potential of science and technology, nurture growth drivers and build up the internal dynamism of economic recovery," he added.

Win-win Second: Win-win outcome through cooperation. This proposal is based on a crystal clear analysis of the prevailing economic situation, which varies from one country to another and is marked by growing differences in terms of interest. This is turn is giving rise to rifts and frictions among them and leading to widespread panic and acute lack of confidence in the markets.

Precisely this grave situation shows the urgency of enhancing international coordination and cooperation, said Hu, and added: "We should strengthen unity and send a strong signal of pursuing win-win cooperation to the world so as to boost the confidence of the international community in global economic recovery and development.  Picture above: President Hu Jintao

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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NEWS ANALYSIS "We should strengthen consultation and coordination, introduce mutually supporting and complementing policy measures, and tackle sovereign debt risks, massive unregulated cross-border flow of capital and other financial risks."

Hu championed the cause of developing nations – lagging far behind emerging countries, when he said: "We should keep the fluctuation of commodity prices under control, mitigate global inflationary pressure and make sure that the economic policies pursued by various countries do not offset each other.".

Improve governance Third: The compelling need to improve governance in the course of reform is underscored by the international financial crisis, which has highlighted the deficiencies in the global economic governance system, but has triggered a historic process of building a new system of global economic governance.

Hu said: "We have taken note of the progress made in reforming international financial institutions and in the financial regulatory reform and the increase in the voice and representation of emerging markets and developing countries."

And yet there is need for major efforts to reform and improve the international monetary system, international trading system and commodity pricing mechanism.

The Chinese President pleaded in particular for advancing the reform of the international monetary system in a steady manner, expanding the use of the SDR (special drawing rights) of the IMF (International Monetary Fund), reforming the SDR currency basket, and building an international reserve currency system with stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply.

Touching upon issues of profound concern to the developing and emerging countries, Hu said: "We should be firmly committed to free trade, oppose trade and investment protectionism, move forward the Doha Round negotiations, reaffirm the commitment of not taking new trade protectionist measures, and work to build a fair, equitable and non-discriminatory international trading system.

"We should work to make the commodity pricing and regulating mechanism more equitable and transparent, expand production capacity, stabilize supply and demand, strengthen supervision and curb speculation so as to maintain the stability of commodity prices at a reasonable level.

"We should ensure global energy security and food security, and in particular, meet the energy and food needs of developing countries. We should remain firm in our resolve to advance reform and make continued progress towards the building of a more just and equitable system of global economic governance."

Fourth: Strive for progress through innovation. Hu argued that the current crisis has once again raised a serious and fundamental issue, namely, how humankind should conduct activities affecting production and livelihood.

The Chinese President appeared to be in quest of a golden middle when he argued in favour of advancing economic and social development, and striking a balance in such important relationships as those between government and market, labor and capital, production and consumption, and equity and efficiency.

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"We should bring into full play the basic role of the market in resources allocation while avoiding blind pursuit of profit and malicious competition. The government should play a key role in macro-regulation and upholding social equity and justice while avoiding being divorced from reality and keeping all responsibilities to itself," said Hu siding with critics of "turbo capitalism", as former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt called it.

He stressed the need for vigorously pursuing scientific innovation and upgrading industrial technologies. "At the same time," Hu said, "we should continue to make creating jobs and improving people's life our top priority, so that progress in science and technology and expansion in employment will complement each other."

He added: "We should boost production and strengthen the material foundation for social development. At the same time, we should ensure more equitable distribution of income, so that growth in social productivity and improvement in people's living standards will reinforce each other."

The emerging economies have miles and miles to go before they achieve that goal. However, this component of Panchsheel is of imperative relevance to post-war industrialized nations, particularly as they divorced the 'social welfare state' of which several European nations were rightly proud.

Common prosperity Fifth: Promote common prosperity through development. The Chinese President reaffirmed itself as the voice of the voiceless in the developing world when he stated that in the final analysis, the most serious bottleneck in world economic development is the inability of developing countries to achieve full development.

"As a result, growth in effective global demand has not kept pace with the growth in productivity. For years, there has been an imbalance between developed and developing countries in terms of access to resources, wealth distribution and development opportunities. This has created a vicious circle where underdevelopment leads to backwardness and backwardness hinders development, thus hampering sustained and steady growth of the global economy," Hu said.

To speed up economic and social development in developing countries, he added, is a UN Millennium Development Goal, and it is the only way leading to global prosperity.

He called upon the international community to come up with new thinking and adopt new policies in this regard. He referred to the G20 Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth and the Multi-Year Action Plan are important to our efforts to narrow the development gap and promote common growth.

Affirming that China has come of age as a protagonist of emerging and developing countries, Hu said: "We should further unleash the development potential of emerging markets and developing countries and boost the economic growth of developing countries in order to stimulate aggregate global demand. "We should continue to increase the voice of emerging markets and developing countries in global economic governance and create an enabling institutional environment for their development, as called for by the changing global economic landscape." ď ’ GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

Dalian bird's eye view | Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The Tale of Two Cleaned Up Asian Cities

By Taro Ichikawa DALIAN - The partner cities of Dalian in Northern China and Kitakyushu in Western Japan have distinguished themselves as dedicated proponents of pollution control and clean environment. Back in the 1960s and 1970s the two cities were severely polluted by heavy industry and smokescreens. Now they are working together to mitigate global climate change in the interest of sustainable development.

It was not surprising therefore that the city of Dalian, which hosted the World Economic Forum's 'Annual meetings of New Champions' in 2007, 2009 and 2011, organized the first Low Carbon Earth Summit (LCES) from October 19 to 26, 2011.

The Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as 'Summer Davos', is the foremost global business gathering in Asia, Introduced in 2007 in close collaboration with China and with the personal support of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

The eight-day conference in Dalian with the theme titled 'Leading the Green Economy, Returning to Harmony with Nature' was arranged by the Information and Research Centre of China's State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. It attracted more than 4,000 experts, entrepreneurs, and government officials, according to the organisers. Nearly half of them came from 57 countries and regions such as the U.S., Canada, Germany, India and Japan.

The significance of the summit lies in the fact that the need for "low carbon economy" is widely recognized particularly since the 2009 UN climate change conference (COP 15) in Copenhagen. The conference covered multitude of climate change issues involving both public and private sectors, and offered a universal platform of scientific and technical communication for decision makers, researchers, industrial participants, business leaders and beyond.

Expressing the sentiments of several participants, J.C. Kala, Director General of the prestigious Amity Institute of Global Warming and Ecological Studies (AIGWES), told IDN that the summit was important because as Mahatma Gandhi said: "Nature provides everyone for his needs but not for greed."

Green Eco Project Aware of the history of environmental cooperation between Japan and China, General Manager and Director of the Department of Environment of the Tokyo Trucking Association (TTA), Keiji Endo, presented the Green Eco Project, which appears to be of relevance to China and other countries. TTA is presided over by Kazuo Ohtaka.

The project has four key aspects: sustainability; reasonable costs; accuracy of data collected; and, above all, the activities should be such that drivers are kept motivated. An important plank of the project is Green-Eco-driving education. Good drivers are given recognition as a means of motivation. Managers are involved in the project on an equal footing, and have the possibility to take part in seminars seven times a year, Endo told summit participants.

He reported that the project had made great strides: member participation has been on the rise every year. By July 2011, over 530 companies and more than 12,214 vehicles participated in the Green Eco project. In addition, fuel consumption was reduced over the past four years – the fuel saved was equivalent to what would have been used by 546 large-sized tank trucks. The savings were worth about US$14.4 million or about 10 million Euros.

The reduction of fuel consumed implied a reduction in 22,888 tons CO2 emissions or equivalent to 1,635,000 cedar trees forested.

Also the number of traffic accidents declined by 40 percent over a period of four years. ďƒ† GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

"We can say that this Project has made a great achievement not only in terms of national economy but also of the society as a whole," Endo said, adding that the next step would be to benchmark fuel efficiency database for each type of vehicle.

"In Japan, we have many advanced devices to support the practice of Eco-driving, such as Digital Taco-graph or Drive recorders," he said.

However, the Green Eco Project neither requires huge financial investment nor hi-tech. All that it needs is a piece of paper called Driving Management Sheet, and a pen to start with – and all this to protect the environment, reduce fuel costs, bring about a decrease in the number of traffic accidents and foster better communication among company co-workers.

"Gathering accurate data is critical to making good policy decisions," Murtaza Ziauddin, Advisor, Matrix Stimulation, Schlumberger Pressure Pumping & Chemistry told IDN. "However, it is extremely difficult to get representative data. Many times the process is unnecessarily complex and few people participate. The elegance of Mr Endo's work is that it is simple and yet extremely effective. It allows collection of representative data and also has the right incentives for the participants. It creates a win-win situation for all involved," Ziauddin added.

"Considering that this project can be implemented with pens and papers without utilizing expensive instruments, I think that it can be put into practice in China and other countries too," Hiroshi Maji, President of Japan's ASUA Corporation, told IDN. "As Mr Endo pointed out in his presentation," Maji added, "even though Green Eco Project is a tiny initiative, once undertaken by great many people, it can have an enormous impact on environment."

Maji, a native from Kitakyushu City, said the City of Dalian was rightly chosen as the venue of the Low Carbon Earth Summit. The city once served as headquarters of the South Manchuria Railway Company (from 1906 till Japan’s defeat in WWI in 1945) and it has a long history of exchange with the city of Kitakyushu through the port of Moji. On the other hand, Dalian and the surrounding area carry footprints of Sino-Japanese history of the 20th century, particularly from a perspective of history of war.

According to a background paper on Sino-Japan environmental cooperation, Dalian became a sister city of Kitakyushu in May 1979. Since then, Dalian Environmental Protection Bureau on the one hand and Kitakyushu Environmental Protection Bureau and KITA (Kitakyushu International Training Association) on the other have been involved in frequent exchanges. Environmental protection trainees from Dalian return home "with greatly enhanced awareness in environmental protection, technical level and management experience," the document states.

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Japan's Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto visited China in 1997 to commemorate 25th anniversary of normalization of relations between China and Japan and proposed choosing one or two cities in China for conceptualization of building a "model city" for Sino-Japan cooperation in environmental protection.

The proposal was backed by Prime Minister Li Peng. Through Dalian's efforts and Kitakyushu's support, Dalian was finally listed as one of cities for this program, says the document.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) supported the development of 'Dalian Environmental Model Area' between 1996 and 2000. Experts from China and Japan deliberated Dalian Environmental Model Area Development Investigation Report, which drew a grand blueprint for Dalian’s environmental protection work in future.

The "model city" program has not only helped clean Dalian's environment but, as the document points out, also benefited enterprises engaged in environmental protection.

What provides additional dimension to partnership is that midway between Tokyo and Shanghai, Kitakyushu is the most advanced city in Japan with regard to pollution control and recycling technology. In fact, it calls itself the "world capital of sustainable development".

In the 1960s it saw the birth of environmental protests in Japan, led by a group of housewives in Sanroku-cho, Tobata ward, who were concerned that their washing always became dirty while drying on the lines. Now Kitakyushu advises sister cities such as Dalian on water purification.

In 1992, Kitakyushu was one of twelve world cities given a Local Government Honours Award at the UN Earth Summit in Brazil to pay a tribute to its environmental programs. Within Japan it is a leading city in anti-pollution measures and recycling with the Ecotown facility in Wakamatsu ward.

Kitakyushu is home to the West Japan Industry and Trade Convention Association, with Kitakyushu International Conference Center and the West Japan General Exhibition Center. It is actively engaged in organising and hosting international conferences particularly on environment and education. A theme park called Space World is situated in Yahata-Higashi ward. JICA runs a training centre (JICA Kyushu International Center) there.

The 'Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development' (OECD) introduced Kitakyushu's improved environment to the world as the example of city transformed from a 'Gray city' to a 'Green city'.

Thanks due to Kitakyushu's support, UN Environment Programme awarded Dalian the UNEP 'Global 500 Award' in 2001. 

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

REFLECTIONS

The Rise and Fall of Ethics and Work Spirit in Japan

By Masahiko Komura* TOKYO - In the aftermath of the Great East Asia Earthquake, with all its disastrous consequences still being felt, former director of the United States National Economic Council, Laurence Summers, commented that the situation in Japan was as if it were rolling down a slope and sliding into "a poor country" status.

I have no idea on what ground Summers came to such a conclusion but I totally disagree with him. In fact I am convinced that, like the sun that rises again, Japan will recover from this calamity.

Sixty-six years ago, Japan lost the Second World War in which three million people were killed. Almost all major cities throughout Japan were reduced to rubble. I was a child then. But I remember people saying that Japan had become "a fourth class nation". Like many in the world they felt that Japan was in a hopeless situation. But Japan undertook reconstruction in a splendid way.

I believe that Japan is tough when the going gets rough. Right or wrong, the Japanese people tend to run in the same direction. As we have to start running from one of the worst situations at a time of adversity, I presume that everyone will run towards a good direction.

About one hundred years ago, Max Weber said, capitalism cannot be realized just as a result of accumulation of capital and technological renovations. It requires the 'Spirit of Capitalism'. If one tries to implement Capitalism in a place where spirit of capitalism does not exist, its market would turn out to be a gamble place.

Capitalism Without Christianity What is that Spirit of Capitalism? Max Weber described it "as a spirit of Protestantism which advocates that working honestly and diligently is god's will."

You may ask why Capitalism succeeded in Japan – without a spirit of capitalism (=Protestantism). I submit that Japan had its own version of a spirit of capitalism. This was manifested in a work ethics called "Shonin-do" – meaning "way of merchant" – that is said to have come into existence by the early Edo era (1603-1867). The Shonin-do spirit regards "work by itself a precious deed"; profit not being the first priority.

With Shonin-do as a spiritual backbone, equivalent to a spirit of capitalism, Japan succeeded in realizing capitalism for the first time outside of Christian civilization and made the nation world's second largest economy within 23 years after the defeat of WWII. However, once successful, something changed in the Japanese society. Before we realized, the Shonin-do work spirit faded away and instead "profit" became the sole objective. In those days, some people described Japan as "a nation flourishing with goods but perishing in spirit."

When profit became an ultimate objective, people came to think that it would be easier to make quick profit by moving money from right to left rather than making goods by toiling. As a result, finance which was intended to a serve industry made industry its slave. A case of profit replacing ethics was the use of "less reinforcing steels at the expense of safety of a building" and "fraudulent claims that a product originates from a particular area or country" exemplary for quality.

When you are faced with such frauds, you have no choice but to tighten regulations, which in turn adversely affects market mechanisms and impedes the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, when spirit dies, goods alone cannot sustain prosperity. We have been witness to such scandals in recent years. Then the great earthquake hit Japan.

But Japan will definitely stand up again. People around the world have been surprised to learn that earthquake victims are helping each other; no fight has taken place over food and they are acting in order. Even in China and South Korea, we hear voices such as "we should learn from the Japanese."

Concerns This does not mean that I have no concern. My concern is not about Japanese people but Japanese politics. If someone tells me that "You are a Japanese politician so you are responsible for the current political problem", he/she is right. However, it would be an uphill task to deal with this problem.

Naoto Kan (who has resigned as prime minister on August 26), is on record having stated that "To become a Minister (of one of the central ministries) is to watch those bureaucratic organizations on behalf of the general public and to be sure that they do not do bad things."  *Masahiko Komura is a former Foreign Minister of Japan. This article is based on a talk by him at Seikei Konwa-kai (Ozaki Public Policy Study Meeting) on May 26, 2011. It is the first in a series as part of a joint project with IPS Japan and Ozaki Yukio Memorial Foundation.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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REFLECTIONS A political problem surfaced when a severe earthquake hit Japan. For example, I have had many occasions to meet foreign diplomats. In the aftermath of the earthquake, many offered their support to the Japanese government. Some of them recalled that they had made similar offers at the time of Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995, when LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) was the ruling party and the Japanese government responded to respective offers within two to three days.

This time, they complained that even after three to four weeks, the Japanese government (headed by Democratic Party of Japan's Naoto) had not responded. Naturally, they blamed bureaucrats who were windows on this matter.

Those bureaucrats responded that "We listed up all offers and submitted these to politicians above us but we have not received any response from them." Foreign diplomatic staff suggested that "Instead of just submitting a list, why don't you prioritize what is requited, since you are specialists. It would accelerate the procedure." The bureaucrats replied that "If we prioritize, we are afraid politicians would scold us saying that we were doing what we were not expected to do."

Logistical Problem In the aftermath of the earthquake/Tsunami, a logistical problem arose: lack of gasoline at gas stands in affected areas made it difficult for survivors with cars to obtain food and for relief teams from outside to deliver food to survivors.

Therefore, how to bring gasoline to gas stands in affected areas became a big concern for the petroleum industry. However, most of the roads were cut up with debris and tank lorries could not move in and they came to a conclusion that only small cars loaded with drum cans could reach gas stations in affected area.

With this conclusion, they visited Prime Minister's office to obtain permission. Under the current regulation, gasoline cannot be transported in drum cans. They pleaded for special permission in this extraordinary case. However, the Prime Minister's office replied that they cannot do so because it is against the regulation.

A couple of days later, they could not still find out any other ways to deliver gasoline to gas stations in affected areas so they decided to visit Prime Minister's office again. This time, an executive of the petroleum industry said that he would "take a responsibility if an accident happens." The reply from Prime Minister's office was: "So you are taking the entire responsibility of this operation. If so, go ahead with your plan." That was more or less how the conversation took place at the Prime Minister's office.

The Naoto Kan administration has created 20 councils and task forces for reconstruction measures after the Great East Japan Earthquake. When you create as many as 20 councils, it becomes difficult to identify jurisdiction and roles. I heard that individuals who are not in a government service are invited as committee members; hold a meeting for 90 to 120 minutes and nothing is decided.

Kan briefing media during Fukushim disaster as prime minister.

Proliferating Bureaucracy Kan administration and Tokyo Electric Power Corporation (TEPCO) established a 'Joint Countermeasure Headquarters'. When it came to a "working plan (to contain Fukushima Nuclear accident)", instead of announcing it at the Joint Countermeasure Headquarters, TEPCO held a press conference and announced that it had worked out a plan.

When it was announced that "a purification devise will be created to take care of radioactive contaminated water at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear plant", it was a TEPCO staff again who gave concrete explanations; a Prime Minister's assistant, who is the secretary general of this joint countermeasure headquarters, was also present at the press conference. I thought the secretary general was going to say that "the government will jointly take a responsibility with TEPCO" but instead he remained silent and at the end of the press conference he only said that "This is something the government strongly demanded of TEPCO." Much worse is the story surrounding a decision to pour into the nuclear facility sea water at the early stage after the accident. The truth remains out of sight. It is said that TEPCO poured sea water in the nuclear facility but the pouring process was interrupted later. It remains unclear if the pouring process was stopped because of an order by Prime Minister Kan or such an order came from TEPCO headquarters which conjectured that the Prime minister was against that decision.

But it is clear now that information provided by the government turned out to be absolutely false. The government claimed that TEPCO, as a profit seeking company had been reluctant to pour sea water into nuclear facilities for fear of damaging the reactor. Prime Minister Kan took a strong leadership in this regard and made TEPCO pour sea water into the facility.�

TEPCO can be easily made a villain of the piece because of many problems that came up in the aftermath of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. However, it is not right for the government to make announcements like this. The relationship between the government and TEPCO is such that even if the government puts all the blame on TEPCO, it cannot afford to deny those accusations. ď ’ 34

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

PERSPECTIVES

President Obama escorts Prime Minister Singh along the White House Colonnade to their meeting in the Oval Office, November 24, 2009.

Credit: The White House - Pete Souza

India and US Partners in Arms

By Ernest Corea WASHINGTON DC - The Obama Administration’s much touted "pivot" to Asia extends a trend that began with President Barack Obama and Mrs. Obama inviting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mrs. Singh to the US as the first state guests of the Obama Administration.

Since then, whatever went on elsewhere in the Asian region, the bilateral India-US relationship has expanded and grown stronger in many sectors including commerce, culture, education, investment, trade – and defence.

"Today, US-India relations are strong and growing. Our military-to-military engagement has increased steadily over the past 10 years and now includes a robust slate of dialogues, military exercises, defence trade, personal exchanges and armaments cooperation," says the Defence Department’s (Pentagon) Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Southeast Asia Bob Scher. He was briefing the media on the Pentagon's November 2011 Report to Congress on US-India Security Cooperation. A major finding of the report is that the value of defence sales from the US to India has risen from zero to $6 billion in less than a decade.

Key Component The India-US New Framework Agreement (2005) provides the structure for the bilateral defence relationship. Additional framework agreements guide developments in areas such as counterterrorism and maritime security.

The Defence Policy Group which combines the top military leadership of both countries "sets priorities for defence cooperation, reviews progress annually, and directs adjustments as necessary," says the Pentagon report. Sub-groups set up under the Defence Policy Group umbrella deal with "defence trade, service-to-service cooperation, technical cooperation and technology security."

Within this broad structure, security cooperation has included: --Joint exercises which have "grown dramatically in size, scope and sophistication." They have involved the air force, army, coast guard, marines, and special operations forces of the two countries.

--Training and preparation for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the Indian Ocean region.

--Operational cooperation such as counter-piracy in the Gulf of Aden, naval security for US ships transiting the Straits of Malacca, and disaster relief following the tsunami of 2004.  GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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PERSPECTIVES --Exchange of science and technology information and collaboration on projects. Areas of current cooperation include power and energy, micro-aerial vehicles, and "human effectiveness."

The Pentagon considers "armaments cooperation" to be a "key component" of its relationship with India's counterpart organisations.

Defence sales to India have included C-17 ND C-130J aircraft, TPQ-37 radars, self-protection suites for VVVIP aircraft, specialized tactical equipment, Harpoon missiles, (and) sensor-fused weapons. Sales of more sophisticated material are expected.

No Irritants Not surprisingly, when Obama and Manmohan Singh met in Bali on November 18, on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit, the Indian leader confirmed that "there are no irritants between our two countries." This assessment was consistent with Obama's view, expressed in New Delhi last year, that the India-US relationship is "one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century."

Hillary Clinton laid it on thick when she said during a visit to India as Secretary of State. She was "very excited", she said, and explained why: "I was thrilled to go to India for the first time as First Lady and to begin a process that has led us to this point with the contributions of many along the way that really demonstrates that the world’s largest democracy and oldest democracy have so much more in common than perhaps was first recognized."

The "full Monty" of lovey-dovey outbursts is a far cry from the state of affairs in past years when tensions often intruded into a relationship that always should have been one of comity, given the many features – democracy, federalism, domestic diversity, among others – that are common to both countries.

Lowest Point The relationship reached perhaps its lowest point during the Nixon administration. House files and tapes contained in the State Department's Foreign Relations of the US series released by the National Security Archives in 2005 showed that in 1971 President Richard Nixon and national security adviser Henry Kissinger considered India to be a "Soviet stooge".

The Pentagon implicitly acknowledges the existence of past frictions. "Over the past decade," it says, "there has been a rapid transformation of the US-India defence relationship. What was once a nascent relationship between unfamiliar nations has now evolved into a strong strategic partnership between two of the preeminent security powers ion the area."

"Nascent" would not have been everybody's choice of description. The prevailing disposition of the two countries towards each other was summed up by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then a Senator from New York, when he wrote in 1971 that "the term 'estranged' nicely captures the sense on both sides that affection has not been returned, or has somehow lapsed, or has found new outlets."

Now, affection has been returned and has found new outlets. As the Pentagon report asserts, US-India defence ties are strong and growing. To quote Scher again: "We will continue to focus on relationship building and establishing the foundation for this long-term partnership. We view India and the development of our strategic and security relationship as instrumental to our long-term vision for the region."

Arms Trade Critics of India-US closeness, particularly in the security arena, will no doubt argue that India has turned its back on non-alignment while remaining a respected member of the Non-aligned Movement, that current developments could lead to situations in which India might find it necessary to line up with the US on issues that are of no direct concern to India. The expanding security relationship could also be faulted as encouraging the lucrative global arms trade which is at the heart of so much bloodshed and misery in the world.

Policies are not cast in stone. Circumstances change and, with them, so do national interests and policies. Moreover, India's commitment to "strategic autonomy" is a potential safeguard against being drawn into quarrels irrelevant to its own interests. It is almost impossible to imagine India voting with the US at the UN on the continuation of the US trade ban against Cuba.

The end of the cold war and, with it, the end of entanglements and estrangements of that time, new foreign policy imperatives that diminished the significance of ideological approaches to policy, changes of leadership and leadership style in both countries, the reorientation of economic policies that forged new and unusual links, and the emergence of China as an economically resurgent regional power with global ambitions were among the circumstances that shaped the current policies which sustain the India-US bilateral relationship.

Looking Ahead Senators Joe Lieberman and John Cornyn at whose request the Pentagon prepared its report have expressed their satisfaction at the burgeoning bilateral relationship, and look forward to even closer collaboration.

The Pentagon appears to be committed to moving ahead along the path it has hewn. It would like to sell more military aircraft, including the US Joint Strike Fighter which the Pentagon describes as "the best in the world" to India.

The Pentagon also looks to the day when "co-development of armaments (will) become a reality."

Times do change.  36

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

PERSPECTIVES

Afghan Women's Fate Uncertain

By Devinder Kumar NEW DELHI - Eminent human rights activist and lawyer Najla Ayubi [right in picture] has expressed profound concern about the situation of women and girls if the judiciary is placed in the hands of the Taliban as a result of negotiations aimed at ushering in peace and reconciliation in the country.

"I think it was a mistake that the Taliban were not part of the negotiations at the Bonn conference in 2001 in the first place. Now, there are rumors that the judiciary will be given to the Taliban. How can women's rights be protected if the judiciary is in the hands of the Taliban, who believe that women should not be part of daily life, part of development and improvement of the country, or part of the prosperity of the country?

"Ever since the announcement of the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan, we observe that even the international communities are not taking women’s issues seriously. What could be expected from the Taliban? This is my concern, but hopefully this will not be the reality," said Ayubi, a former prosecutor and Commissioner of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB) of Afghanistan.

Ayubi, who also served as a legal advisor to the State Ministry for Parliamentary Affairs within the Afghan Government, is co-author of the Afghanistan in 2011: A Survey of the Afghan People, the broadest public opinion poll in the country, conducted by the Asia Foundation.

The Survey released in Kabul on November 15, 2011 found that 82 percent of 6,348 Afghan citizens across all 34 provinces, who were asked for their views on security, reconciliation, economy, and governance, support the government’s attempts to address the security situation through negotiation and reconciliation with the Taliban. In-person interviews took place between July 2 and August 1, 2011.

Backing for the government's peace and reconciliation efforts and negotiations with the armed opposition is high in all regions and highest in the East (89 percent), South West (87 percent), North West (85 percent) and South East (83 percent). Eighty-one percent of respondents also agree with the government providing assistance, jobs and housing to those who lay down arms and want to reintegrate into society.

Former Asia Foundation program director for Law, Human Rights, and Women's Empowerment in Kabul, Ayubi, said: "The high support for peace and reconciliation was a very surprising and important finding in this year's survey. It's surprising to see that 82 percent of the people support peace and reconciliation, which has interesting implications for the peace process."

Religious leaders received the highest vote of confidence and optimism of the Afghan people among local governance institutions, according to Survey. "Seventy percent of respondents say that there should be regular consultation with religious leaders about problems in their area, while 74 percent rank religious leaders as one of the three most trusted institutions. This trend is the highest since 2006, when 61 percent of respondents said there should be regular consultation with religious leaders," noted Mohammad Osman Tariq focusing on an important aspect of the Survey.

Commenting this finding, Ayubi said in an interview with In Asia editor Alma Freeman: "I also found it surprising that 74 percent of the respondents said they have confidence in religious leaders and 70 percent of respondents say that religious leaders should be consulted on problems facing an area."

The Survey shows lower levels of support by women than men for reconciliation with armed opposition groups. The reason, according to Ayubi, is that women have been marginalized by the Taliban and other armed opposition groups for decades.

"That’s why woman don’t have much empathy for the armed opposition groups, and are not as supportive as men for the so called peace and reconciliation process which is going on with the government. In many cases, they feel they won't get any benefit from this type of negotiation – specifically, they worry their rights will be compromised, and for me as an Afghan woman, I'm also afraid that my rights will be compromised during these peace talks," said Ayubi.

"Two of the biggest issues that affect women's lives here are the lack of freedom of movement to work outside of the home and access to education. In the current peace talks, how this will be factored in is totally up in the air. It's very clear that women support peace, but not the kind of approach that risks compromising their rights," she added.

"Also, women are only symbolically part of the peace talks: some women have been put in high-level positions, like at the High Peace Council or at the local, provincial level in peace talk committees, but they aren't able to actually represent women's voices and interests there.

"For example, some of the women representatives in the High Peace Council have said that in many cases when there is a peace talk trip inside of the country, they are not allowed to be part of the delegation. The male representatives say that due to the security situation, women aren’t able to come.

"But this makes me ask, if the security is a problem for women, why is it not a problem for men? If the men can go and be protected by security forces, then why can't the same be done for women? It's more of a stereotype or patriarchal thinking that women are not eligible to be in peace talks rather than anything having to do with their ability," Ayubi stated.

She was recently named country director for the Open Society Foundation (OSF's) Afghanistan office. Ayubi is also an Executive Board Member of the Afghan Woman’s Network and Global Advisory Board Member of South Asia Women's Regional Network.  GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

37

PERSPECTIVES Girls' Education The Survey respondents report the highest level of satisfaction with the availability of education for children, with almost three quarters (73 percent) saying this is quite good or very good in their local area. Yet, education and illiteracy (25 percent) remain the major problems facing women in Afghanistan.

Undoubtedly, the percentage of newly enrolled girls in schools has increased to more than 38 percent of total children enrolled in the past three or four year. "But, when your compare this to boys, at 62 percent newly enrolled, the balance is just not there. Out of a population of 6 million, there are more than 2 million girls attending school. Which, when compared with the Taliban era, is certainly an improvement, but this is not enough. When it comes to improvement in education overall, boys have benefited more than girls, which is one reason why education is cited as a bigger problem for women than it is for men."

"Although girls’ enrollment is higher now at the primary school level," she said, "you approach 12th grade, that drops significantly.

This is in part due to a lack of trained female teachers, and the families aren’t letting the girls go and study under male teachers. If there are no female teachers in one village, the family will definitely not let their girls travel to another village because of security concerns."

Drawing attention to another aspect, she said: "Also, if you aren’t married in Afghanistan, that's seen as a problem. If you aren't letting your girls go get married, this will be a shame for your family. Finally, Afghans typically have very large families, from four to sometimes 12 children, even 15. How can they feed their families with only one male in the household working while the rest of the family is spending? Many families decide to just let their girls get married instead of go to school because they don’t have enough resources to feed them."

The Survey, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) of the Afghan People is the latest in a series of empirical assessments that The Asia Foundation has conducted across Asia. It was managed working in close collaboration with several Afghan organizations, including Kabul-based Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR) and the Central Statistics Organization of Afghanistan (CSO).

In spite of prevailing doubts about the future of Afghanistan, Fazel Rabi Haqbeen [left in picture], programme director in the Asia Foundation's Kabul office, points out that for the first time since 2007, respondents in the latest survey cited reconstruction and rebuilding as the most important reason for optimism.

"The level of optimism for reconstruction and rebuilding is high across all 34 provinces, but particularly so in the West, Central/Kabul, South East, South West, and East regions and urban areas. The level of optimism is nearly the same for men and women, as wll as all ethnic groups, except Hazara who reported slightly lower figures," says Haqbeen.

Respondents in the 2011 Survey who reported the need for reconstruction as a reason for pessimism is at the lowest level since the Foundation first conducted the survey in 2004, he adds.

"Increased optimism in the area of reconstruction and rebuilding certainly represents a source of hope for Afghanistan's future development," says Haqbeen. But warns: "It will be critical that emphasis on the needs of the country’s citizens be met with even greater focus and commitment in order to regain the trust and confidence of the Afghan people."

The survey highlights a link that respondents perceive between the direction of progress in the country and the ability of government to provide essential services and support for development projects.

A high proportion of respondents praise the availability of clean drinking water (70 percent) and freedom of movement or their ability to move safely in their area or district (70 percent). More than two thirds (69 percent) of respondents say the security situation is quite good or very good in the area where they live.

On the other hand, people are least satisfied with the availability of jobs. More than two thirds (70%) of respondents say the availability of jobs in their local area is quite bad or very bad. Almost two thirds (65%) say the same about the supply of electricity.

Although procurement of electricity is an ongoing focus of President Hamid Karzai's administration, including some success at bringing in electricity from neighboring countries, local potential for greater electricity supply has not been tapped. The delay has resulted in loss of revenue for the country and potential infrastructural construction job opportunities.

"Though findings vary across regions, people who cited the need for reconstruction as a reason for pessimism is now at its lowest level since we first began conducting the survey, in 2004," says Haqbeen highlighting important aspects of the Survey. "The same is true for people who cite unemployment and a poor economy as the biggest problems facing Afghanistan, which both fell to the lowest levels since 2006, suggesting that Afghans view the country's economic situation more favorably than in previous years."

The percentage of people who gave a positive assessment of the availability of jobs in their local area has been rising steadily since 2008, which, according to Haqbeen, is consistent with the fall in those that identify unemployment as a major national problem.

"The most significant improvements concern the financial well-being of households, quality of the food diet, availability of products in the market, and the physical conditions of housing, suggesting that the level of material prosperity is improving for a significant percentage of the Afghan population," Haqbeen adds in a contribution to In Asia.  38

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES | NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2011

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