EMs: Medium term debt burden risks have eased but remain high

Risk assessment based on fan chart tool results

Note: Green area = Low risk (Crisis probability < 9%, Missed crisis probability = 10%). Yellow area = Moderate risk (Crisis probability >9%, <20%).

Light Pink = High risk (Crisis probability >20%, False alarm probability = 10%). Dark Pink area = Crisis probability >40%.

EMs: GFNs remain a source of short-term risk for some of them

Gross Financing Needs (in percent of GDP)

Note: Missing value for Egypt in 2019.

Number of countries displayed: 28.

Markets: Sovereign risk remains high for several EMs, especially noncommodity exporters, but has receded in recent months

JPMorgan EMBIG Spreads