possibility of increased pork exports to Japan (see Sorghum Consumption section), feed manufactures could increase the use of Mexico USDA New Post USDA New Post USDA New Post Official Official Official domestic durum in feed rations because of Area Harvested 707 707 818 818 0 775 the higher nutritional value. Trade Beginning Stocks 316 316 495 495 0 555 The Post/New total wheat import forecast Production 3687 3687 3760 3760 0 3900 for 2016/17 is estimated to increase slightly MY Imports 4446 4446 4400 4400 0 4450 to 4.45 MMT from 2015/16, due to higher demand for imported varieties used to make TY Imports 4446 4446 4400 4400 0 4450 bread wheat. Private analysts expect that the TY Imp. from U.S. 3065 3065 0 2800 0 3200 proportion of domestic durum production Total Supply 8449 8449 8655 8655 0 8905 (or “cristalino”) will be slightly higher in 2016/17, compared to the previous year. MY Exports 1104 1104 1100 1100 0 1150 As result, Mexican millers could increase TY Exports 1104 1104 1100 1100 0 1150 their demand for imported wheat of various varieties for milling, especially soft wheat Feed and Residual 400 400 400 400 0 450 varieties. FSI Consumption 6450 6450 6600 6600 0 6670 The Post/New wheat import estimate from Total Consumption 6850 6850 7000 7000 0 7120 the United States for 2015/16 is based on private traders’ information and preliminary Ending Stocks 495 495 555 555 0 635 official data from official government Total Distribution 8449 8449 8655 8655 0 8905 statistics covering the first seven months of 1000 HA),(1000 MT) the marketing year. Private sources stated that price and quality continue to be the main factors that decide import sources. As a result, private analysts indicated that many Mexican of flour each year. In 2014 for example, the milling industry millers in 2015/16 have been sourcing wheat from non-traditional consumed approximately 6.5 MMT of wheat, which was used to suppliers such as Ukraine, Russia and France, as they have said to manufacture 4.8 MMT of flour and meal and 1.6 MMT of bran find the right balance between price and quality. (a by-product of the wheat milling process). The remaining byHowever, this trend could reverse slightly in 2016/17 as several products are consumed by the livestock sector. Mexican millers who imported US wheat in the past could The millers have a capacity of approximately 8.316 MMT of return to US origin due to, among others things, better logistical production, with CANIMOLT stating that the wheat milling arrangements and reliable supplier advantages. According to industry has continued to consolidate in the last few years private trade sources, some Mexican millers had quality issues through the acquisitions and fusions of some millers. At the with some of their wheat suppliers from the non-traditional same time, wheat-milling companies have continued to invest in modernising their plants. As a result, the wheat flour-mill industry origins. In light of this fact, Post/New 2016/17 wheat imports output has continued growing at an average rate of between 1 and from the U.S. are forecast to increase to approximately 3.2 MMT. Post/New 2016/17 wheat exports are forecast to increase 1.5 percent annually. slightly to 1.15 MMT assuming a relatively neutral to slightly The Post/New feed consumption estimate for 2016/17 is bullish international wheat market. forecast to increase to 450,000 MT. Sources state that due to favourable prospects in the domestic hog sector, including the Full report: http://bit.ly/1UA1wWj Table 1: Mexico Wheat Production, Supply and Demand for MY2014/15 to MY2016/17
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