Milling News
The Pelletier Column Adding value through foresight
by Christophe Pelletier A question that I am being regularly asked is whether I have a crystal ball. Although I believe that it is more of a nice icebreaker than actually a question. There is a bit of a fascination in all of us about the idea that someone may actually be able to see into the future and tell others what is coming their way. If it were indeed possible, it certainly would reduce uncertainty but it also would make life quite a bit less exciting. Sorry to kill some of the mystique but foresight is not about crystal balls, cards or goat’s insides. Unfortunately, there is no magic in trying to identify likely future scenarios. Actually, the percentage of accurate predictions is rather disappointing. I heard recently of an American survey that estimated the accuracy level of predictions by economists currently stands at 47 percent; one of my colleagues even joked about this by saying if you flip a coin your predictions will be statistically higher by three points. The stock exchange in Amsterdam used to be famous by asking an ape to pick the top five stocks for the year and it repeatedly beat the analysts’ consensus. Mistakes to avoid when envisioning the future In my opinion, there are a couple of mistakes –or pitfallsto avoid when trying to envision the future. Trying to achieve an excess of accuracy is one of them, especially by trying to give hard figures. Numbers always tend to give a sense of precision and security, but all too often they do not mean much if they are not backed by a strong scenario. It is quite likely that you all have witnessed predictions on prices falling flat when the deadline arrived. Sometimes, the surprise is a good one, sometimes it is not, but the fact is that the prediction was inaccurate. Generally, the cause for this is a scenario built on too many variables for which there is little, if any, control. Assumptions become more prevalent than facts. Another mistake is to carry out a survey on today’s situation without projecting it in the future. When the plan based on such a survey is implemented, the environment has evolved and the conclusions of the survey are no longer valid. It may sound obvious, but I am always surprised to see how often a research ends up writing the present in the future tense and call it the future, always causing painful disappointment later on. There is nothing wrong about the present, though. It is only a point on a longer evolution. At least as important 26 | October 2016 - Milling and Grain
as the present, the past is a mine of information and wisdom that adds a lot of value in the development of futures scenarios. Today’s trends are always easy eye catchers, but many of them fill more a function of being trees for the forest. I always prefer looking for “deep currents” that slowly provide energy and dynamics to the long-term evolution without being disrupted much by superficial and shortterm distractions. I have found that they have more impact for future events. Spotting them requires work like everything else, of course, but it requires more than that. For the foresight exercise, instinct and intuition are major assets. Call it having a nose for it, gut feeling or a sixth sense, they are gifts that help tremendously to achieve a high level of successful prediction if you have them in-house. Discovering the value of a collaborative chain approach Next to the inner characteristics, there is plenty of external value as well. A collaborative chain approach is a must to connect the dots. In a previous column, I mentioned how important it is to be curious and know what is already available out there. When developing future scenarios, widening the scope beyond your organisation will do wonders. Be assured that most of your partners, be it business or other form of stakeholders, are also trying to figure out the future. Unfortunately, too often, the links in the chain -or the stitches in the web- work independently at this exercise. How much added value there is in joining forces to have the big picture scenarios would surprise most of us. Asking “How can I help you for the future?” to existing and prospective customers is quite effective. It creates a bond and a common goal. It also paves the way for higher added value for the future. Similarly, telling suppliers quite clearly about your future needs already starts putting the wheels in motion for receiving better products and services. Confronting scenarios with stakeholders who may have different objectives is a useful reality check about the larger landscape. To add more value for the future, the scenarios must of course identify what both the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of value are exactly, and how they rank for all of the stakeholders involved. Christophe Pelletier is a food and agriculture strategist and futurist from Canada. He works internationally. He has published two books on feeding the world’s growing population. His blog is called “The Food Futurist”.