Resilient Space Infra New Age Deterrence?

In the face of rapid evolution of warfare, there is a dire need to boost geospatial intelligence, reconnaissance, navigation, and situational awareness capabilities across the spectrum of space defence.

Wars of the future are all likely to be information-based. This is true not only of the ongoing propaganda wars but also of the real wars in which people still kill other people in various parts of the world.

Whilst India’s aspirations may be to develop peacefully, it is unlikely that she will be allowed to do so. Prudence dictates that the Indian state takes the necessary steps to protect itself and its

By Srinivasan Chandrasekhar

national interests. Much of the information needed for a country to defend itself either originates in space, or is moved around using space assets. This makes the assets themselves vulnerable, adding to the complexities of the tasks that any aspiring power needs to address.

Readers can access them in case they want to know more. India shares land borders with seven other countries. We also have a large coastline of over

7500 Km that includes the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Maldives are the countries that have land and maritime borders with India.

While what happens in all of them is important, the China – Pakistan nexus is a historic vulnerability that needs to be addressed in hard military terms .

Of particular concern to an Indian military strategy is the rise of China as a peer competitor to the US and its increasing use of the space and information domains as a part of its military strategy.

India’s Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance (ISR) Needs

The information-driven wars of today and tomorrow will all use platforms that are situated as far away as possible from targets.

Space assets, especially Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance (ISR) satellites that provide information from over-the-horizon thus become important components of any military strategy.

What kind of space based ISR assets does India need to deter its adversaries?

The challenge for any space based ISR system is to identify, locate and continuously track an object of interest as far away, as possible, from a country’s borders. Since optical and SAR satellites provide limited swaths, a very large number of them may be needed to address the problems of ISR.

Traditionally, the ISR problem has been addressed not by using remote sensing, but by having broadband receivers, onboard satellites, that receive any radio-emission from a horizon-to-horizon coverage area on the ground. These satellites are termed Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) satellites.

The US was the first to operationally deploy them in the early 1970’s, calling it the National Ocean Surveillance System (NOSS). Through a clever architectural design, these satellites not only sensed an emission of interest within the broad coverage area, but were also able to locate it to some degree of accuracy.

This was possible because instead of launching one satellite, the NOSS launched three satellite at a time into a 1100 Km, 63.40 inclination orbit. The three satellites fly in a triangle with known separation distances between them.

The same radio signal is received by all of them at different times. This enables the location of the emitter on the ground through a standard triangulation routine. Using this architecture not only can one detect a radio emitter but also locate it with a reasonable degree of precision.

For an altitude of 1100 Km such a satellite triplet will cover an area with a 7000 Km diameter and locate an emitter within say a 25 Km radius. In the original NOSS architecture three to four such triplets were distributed around the equator, spaced in such a way that as one triplet moved away because of the rotation of the earth, another triplet would replace it.

Through this approach, the US was able to keep track of all naval deployments around the world.

China, which had been experimenting with ELINT programmes since the 1970’s, launched first Yaogan triplet the Yaogan 9A, 9B, 9C into a 1100 Km, 63.4 0 orbit in May 2010.

The orbital parameters of the Yaogan 9 triplet mimic those of the early US NOSS system. Over the last several years it has always had at least four such triplets in continuous operation. These enable the identification and location of relevant military emitters such as Aircraft Carrier Groups. Figure 1 provides an overview of this coverage.

China has also augmented this location capability into a continuous tracking capability to ensure constant surveillance as military platforms advance closer to its shoreline or borders. This is achieved by adding more ELINT satellites. But unlike the earlier

ELINT satellites these do not fly in a triangular formation but in the same orbital plane spaced 600 apart at an altitude of 600 Km and an inclination of 350 as shown in Figure 2.

Through this combination of triangular formation and Coplanar ELINT satellites, China would not only be able to locate emitters but also continuously track them. It also has additional SAR and optical satellites that are cued by the ELINT so that the object of interest is always under surveillance and continuously trackable.

The assessment of the ISR capability of this constellation carried out using software developed at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), validates this near continuous surveillance capability.

Simply put, the NIAS study reveals that no military platform can come close to China’s shoreline or border without being identified, located, and tracked.

While Indian vulnerabilities and responses may be different, the above real-life deployments suggest that Indian needs would be somewhat similar. The operational Chinese Yaogan constellation for ISR currently consists of 30 ELINT and a minimum of five optical and 5 SAR satellites at different altitudes and inclinations.

To respond to this challenge posed by China, India would need an operational constellation of at least 40 ISR satellites along with launchers for placing them in the desired orbits.

Command, Control, Communications & Computers (C4) Needs

While ISR assets in space are important, it is also necessary that the information that is collected by them is moved around and delivered to the right locations over a large geographic area.

A minimum of nine large geostationary satellites would be needed for this purpose. Private sector capacities could supplement and complement any additional peak demands.

The data collected over the horizon also needs to reach a central repository for further processing and integration into the military system. Four large Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) in GSO will be needed for this purpose. These are very similar in architecture to heavy or very heavy GSO communications satellites.

Operational C4ISR System for India

The above assessment suggests that an operational C4ISR system for India will need a minimum complement of 53 satellites comprising ELINT, optical, SAR, and large communications satellites in Geostationary Orbit. They will also need associated launch vehicles and services to place, maintain and replace them in orbit.

There is an ongoing revolution in the use of small satellite constellations for applications in communications and remote sensing. Such constellations can substitute for and complement the more advanced C4ISR capabilities mentioned above.

Though the scaling up needed may be best done by industry, a promotional effort involving a few satellites may need to be taken up as a part of the military space effort.

A small constellation of five communications and five remote sensing satellites along with their associated launch services may need support before scaling up by industry.

Weather Services

Space-based weather information is crucial for all military operations. India has in place an operational satellite service that provides weather information that includes Indian satellites in GSO as well as information from other sources. It has still not established any operational orbiting weather satellites.

Since one can expect this system to continue it would be logical to assume that the current system, with some improvements, can meet the operational needs of the military.

Navigation

India has established a Regional Navigation Satellite System that uses three satellites in GSO and four satellites in a 30 degree Inclination Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO). The US GPS, the Russian GLONASS,

China’s Beidou, and the European Galileo are all operational systems that largely use an architecture of 30 to 35 satellites orbiting in different planes with different inclinations at altitudes of about 20000 Km.

The location and timing information obtained from such systems is likely to be substantially better allowing it to be used for higher precision applications like missile guidance.

India will need a 35-satellite navigation constellation to operate meaningfully in the information-based wars of the future.

Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

There is evidence that some of the advanced space powers have satellites in orbit that can track other satellites to provide Space Situational Awareness (SSA) information. India needs to explore these possibilities as early as possible and establish operational capabilities. India may need a minimum of five small satellites along with associated launch services over the next five years to develop space based SSA capabilities.

ASAT BMD Needs

India conducted its first successful ASAT test in 2019. Given current trends in the military uses of space, India needs to protect her assets in space. About five satellites with associated launchers may be needed for meeting these development needs over the next five years.

India may also need to keep her BMD options open. Early Warning Satellites in GSO are needed for this purpose. About three large satellites in GSO over the next five years may be needed for an R&D effort.

Launch Services for the Indian Space Military Effort

For the next five years or so the PSLV and the GSLV Mark 3 launchers will remain the mainstay vehicles that can launch all

Table 1: Satellite & Launcher Requirements for Military Use 2023 - 2030

The Civilian Public Good services with some augmentation may be adequate to meet military requirements the satellites that are needed for the Indian military.

For scaling-up and large scale production it is imperative that the technologies for manufacture and launch operations are transferred to Indian industry.

Overall Assessment of Military Space Needs

Table 1 provides a listing of the satellites and launchers needed for establishing this Indian space military capability. India needs a minimum of 111 satellites to meet her space military requirements over the next five to seven years.

These are largely C4ISR, and navigation needs with some capability development in areas like SSA, BMD and ASAT. India also needs 22 PSLV and 51 GSLV launches for realizing this complement of military satellites.

Government Support

It is a well-known fact that even on the commercial side existing capacities and capabilities within the country are not sufficient to meet the needs of the domestic markets. More than half of the satellite transponders services to the Indian market are owned by foreign entities.

In remote sensing, many companies based in the US and Europe are entering the Indian market for space products and value-added services. China too is poised to make a major mark in the global space marketplace.

It is obvious that the Indian Space Market is poised to grow exponentially over the next decade. Many commercial services like weather, navigation, mapping are built on a backbone of public good services that requires to be supported by the government.

Leveraging Indian Capabilities

In many of the critical areas of space technology and applications, significant capabilities exist within government entities. However, they lack the funding and the resources to scale-up for meeting the military and civilian needs of the country. There is also likely to be internal resistance in letting go of key capabilities built over decades.

The recent space sector reforms have evoked widespread discussions in the media and the business world. A plethora of new government entities have been created to facilitate the creation of a viable space ecosystem with demarcations between defence and civilian uses. There are also several initiatives to promote the emergence of an Indian Space Industry.

Most of the changes reflect the government's focus on easing entry barriers and facilitating the ease of doing business in space. These steps do not, by themselves, adequately address how national requirements for public goods can be harnessed to accelerate the emergence of an Indian space industry.

There is a major need for a military space effort to be supported and funded by the government. There are also several commercial space applications that depend on a publicly supported backbone infrastructure. Taken together, the financial outlays required to procure or build them are substantial. Many, if not all of these, can be developed and built by entities within the government.

However, as the evidence suggests, these entities are not able to scale-up, manufacture and diversify their product mix to meet the growth in demand. It is therefore evident that if these needs, capabilities, and challenges are seen together, they provide a huge opportunity for the space industry in the country.

These large outlays provide an opportunity for the government to create a mechanism through which the key technologies developed in government institutions with public funding are transferred to Indian industry for large scale deployment and use.

The first step is to identify the space assets that would be needed by the military over the next five to seven years along with numbers, masses, timelines, specifications, launch requirements and budgets.

The common backbone infrastructure could also be included in this, if feasible. In simple terms, it is the preparation of a detailed strategy plan for the government supported space sector.

This could be followed by inviting proposals from industry for the realization of various parts of the plan. The proposals should include the technological efforts that industry would perform as well as collaboration in technology with entities like ISRO for the delivery of products and services.

Details regarding the use of test facilities and infrastructure available with various government entities should become a part of the discussions.

Guarantees of suitable numbers of satellites or launches should also be provided to industry, once they meet specifications and demonstrate performance through initial partnership forays with government entities such as ISRO.

These joint industry-government development and scale-up projects can provide much needed impetus to accelerate the development of Indian Space Industry.

In the absence of such initiatives that reduce the technical, financial and market risks for Indian industry, it is quite likely that the resulting turf wars between various government entities will bypass many of the technical capabilities that are there within them.

These approaches and practices are not new to the global space industry. Both the US as well as Europe have adopted many approaches where these joint initiatives have created huge global industries—Satellite communications and navigation are two outstanding examples.

In India too, ISRO in its earlier days promoted the joint development of key capabilities for space, in collaboration with industry and research labs. There is a wealth of knowledge, experience, and talent within India to enable this transformation.

While a lot of hype has been created about reforms in the space sector, so far there has been no visible progress on a strategic national plan for meeting the military and public good needs in space. There are also no discussions on how government procurement of key space products and services could be leveraged to develop the space industry.

Figure 3 provides an overview of the various components of an operational space military capability with other related military assets. The areas highlighted in red are all areas of concern where major efforts are needed to ensure the nation’s security.

It is evident that the large number of satellites and launchers that will be needed are best manufactured and operated by Indian industry. The great challenge facing the nascent Indian space ecosystem is the transfer and form the government to the government to industry.

Since the entire effort for meeting these needs must be funded by the government, there's an opportunity to create a mechanism through which the key technologies developed in government institutions with public funding are transferred to Indian industry for large scale deployment and use.

There is no reason to believe that such a trajectory of partnership and co-evolution cannot be followed.

Will the Indian government and its various entities work with Industry to affect such a transformation? We hope and pray that the answer will be a resounding yes.

Srinivasan is the JRD Tata Visiting Professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). He was earlier a Professor in the Corporate Strategy and Policy Area at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB). Before moving to IIMB he had spent more than 20 years working at the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).