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POLITICS
GEORGIA TODAY
JULY 14 - 17, 2017
With the West Uninterested, Georgia Faces Unpleasant Developments in its Breakaway Regions OP-ED BY EMIL AVDALIANI
G
eorgia is experiencing a difficult period internally as well externally. On the foreign policy front, things are not looking up, as reflected by the G20 Summit in Hamburg last week which saw the country’s perils being all but ignored by world leaders. Internally, the country is preparing for the Tbilisi mayoral elections and a nationalistic march is ready to kick off in the heart of the capital over the coming days to protest ‘unsavory’ behavior by nationals from the Middle East. In addition, a number of high-profile court hearings of detained foreigners from neighboring countries are further heightening temperatures internally as many are led to believe in their being motivated by external actors. But the real problem for Tbilisi is that there is a certain fatigue with the Georgia problem in the West. The frozen conflicts around Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Samachablo), while clearly problems, are not as immediate as, for instance, east Ukraine or even Nagorno Karabakh, where the situation has been tense for more than a year. There might be even more than just fatigue. For example, in western media few analysts these days note the problem and it is rare that this information niche is filled by analyses and reportative pieces. However, it is this fatigue, relative disinterest and lack of information about the Georgian conundrum that is successfully used by the breakaway regions’ leaderships to strengthen their positions vis-à-vis Tbilisi. As I explained here several weeks
ago, the installation of new makeshift ‘border’ signs could eventually create huge problems for transportation and overall security across the region. Yet Russia acts in South Ossetia according to its security concerns based on geography and a purported threat from NATO. At the same time, as our eyes are on South Ossetia, a number of interesting developments are taking place in Abkhazia which are set to further destabilize the breakaway region and in the long run will create stronger bases for Russian influence there. Last week, the opposition forces in Abkhazia mounted a full-scale campaign against Raul Khajimba’s government and began asking for his resignation. This not to say that the development is in itself a new one, but rather that it comes on top of an already fragile internal situation and the official understanding between the separatist government and the opposition force Amtsakhara. The Agreement on Social and Political Stability signed in late 2016 with the aim to calm tensions and prevent confrontation between the Abkhaz leadership and the opposition has now been effectively broken. And this development comes just several days after the Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, who oversees Russian influence in Georgia and Ukraine’s breakaway territories, made positive statements about Khajimba and the overall ‘political stability’. The statements do reflect the extent to which the people in Abkhazia are divided along political lines. There are strong supporters of Khajimba who managed to become rich under his rule, but many of his previous supporters who helped him storm the presidential palace and impose forceful resignation on Aleksandr Ankvab are now in com-
Abkhazia–Russia border. Source: Wikiwand
plete opposition to him. Indeed, the problems in the breakaway region are numerous, making the stability unlikely. Unemployment is high and this in turn facilitates a high level of crime. One Russian tourist was killed several days ago in Abkhazia, resulting in the Russian government warning its citizens against travelling to the breakaway region. Abkhazia lacks internal stability because the ruling politicians often lack money and experience to effectively manage the region, while the opposition forces are strong enough to stage manifestations and even cause resignations. An example of this complicated situation is the recent return of Ankvab to Abkhazia. Khajimba’s government, fearful of a reaction and not strong enough anyway,
were unable to forestall his election as PM. Yet, Moscow is closely watching the developments in the region as there always are elements in Abkhazia which do not agree with being entirely pro-Russian. Many fear that Russian money will leave ethnic Abkhaz without land. Unlike South Ossetia, where the population numbers are quite low and political life cannot become violent, in Abkhazia for Russia it is more prudent to have a divided political spectrum; a divided society where neither of the sides can gain the upper hand as a policy which will help Moscow hold off any antiRussian sentiment gaining momentum. This, in the longer run, will help Russia to further its military and economic influence on political life in Abkhazia.
Georgian Foreign Minister Holds Meetings in Moldova
BY THEA MORRISON
D
uring his official visit to Moldova, Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze met with the Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Andrei Galbur on July 10. Janelidze noted that his official visit to Moldova coincides with the 25th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Both sides spoke about the traditionally friendly relations between the two countries, highlighting the increasing level of co-operation in the defense, justice, customs, and agriculture sectors. The two ministers focused on the importance of holding the first inter-governmental economic commission and business forum in April, which aims to give a fresh impetus to the bilateral tradeeconomic cooperation reported to have increased by 60% in the first quarter of 2017. They also underlined the importance of activating people-to-people contacts which will be strengthened further by the signing of a memorandum of co-operation on the matter of tourism between the two countries. As part of the meeting, the two ministers signed postage stamps issued to mark the 25th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Janelidze then invited his Moldovan counterpart to Georgia.
Prospects for further co-operation between the two countries were on the agenda of talks between the Georgian Foreign Minister and the Moldovan Prime Minister, Pavel Filip. Both sides spoke about the increasing level of relations between the two countries, focusing on the importance of holding the first inter-governmental economic commission and political consultations between the foreign ministries of Georgia and Moldova. Special attention was paid to the possibility of expanding trade-economic relations. Both welcomed the growth of trade between the two countries as well as Moldova’s rising interest in Georgia’s tourism potential. The Moldovan Prime Minister expressed his interest in benefiting from Georgia’s experience in successful reforms in the sectors of public administration, civil services and tax systems. During his visit to Moldova, Georgian Foreign Minister Janelidze met with the Moldovan President Andrian Candu. Janelidze also participated in the 9th Eastern Partnership Informal Dialogue Session hosted by Moldova which addressed the necessary subjects for the preparation of the Eastern Partnership Summit to be held on November 24 in Brussels. The event was attended by the European Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, Johannes Hahn, Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service, Jean-Christophe Belliard, as well as the Foreign Ministers of Eastern Partnership countries.