5
Daily Market Note
Bloomberg: GNCP <GO> www.genghis-capital.com
th
13 November 2012
Equities
2011
Distribution Activities Boost the NSE... The NSE 20 Share Index gained 0.11% to close at 4156.86 as equity turnover surged 1.14% to Kes.677.46Mn. The FTSE 15 and FTSE 25, both followed suit gaining 0.04 and 0.02 points respectively. The NASI was the only index that closed in the red losing 0.31% to 92.62. The FTSE Bond Index ascended 1.932 points to close at 102.652. Foreign investor’s further reduced their participations contributing to 46.21% although they increased their positive inflow to Kes.325Mn. Market capitalisation reduced to Kes.1.234Tn. “Be Willing to Bet Big on the Right Opportunity .” Bill Ruane
The highlights of the day’s trading activity are listed below: Table 1: NSE Performance
Table 2: NSE Indices
Market Indices Summary
Top Traders Mumias Sugar
7,611,200
Index NASI
Safaricom Ltd Ltd Equity Bank Co. Ltd
7,261,300
NSE 20 Share
4152.11
4156.86
0.11%
4,528,400
FTSE NSE 15
122.79
122.83
0.03%
Centum Investment Co Ltd
3,241,200
125.39
125.41
0.02%
Access Kenya Group
3,112,200
FTSE NSE 25 Source: NSE
Equity
Volume
Gaining Stocks Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
64.50
4.03
Eveready East Africa
1.65
3.12
Uchumi Supermarket ltd
19.65
2.88
Kenya Airways Ltd
11.90
1.71
Sameer Africa Ltd
3.50
1.45
Scangroup Ltd.
Losing Stocks Equity
Price (KES)
% Change
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Eaagads Ltd
3.60
-6.49
24.75
-4.81
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd
5.50
-4.35
CFC Insurance Co. Ltd
6.65
-3.62
PanAfrican Insurance Co.
38.75
-3.13
Source: NSE
Previous 92.91
Today 92.62
% change -0.31%
The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of today’s trading session stood at 14/22with 14 stocks advancing in price and 22 shedding prices. Foreign investor participation decreased from yesterday’s 49.59% to 46.22% of total activity. Today’s session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.325.1Mn a threefold increase from yesterday’s Kes.100M. East Africa Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) was the most actively traded stock among foreigners recording a turnover of Kes.316.7Mn. Equity bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) recorded the second highest foreign investor turnover at Kes.125.6M. The 2 counters accounted for 32.65% and 70.65% of the total NSE and total foreign activity respectively. Kenya Power and Lighting Co Ltd (NSE: KPLC) had the highest net outflow of Kes.15.2Mn.
*Closing Prices
The stock with the highest net Inflow was East African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) worth Kes.205.96Mn.
Daily Market Note Table 3: NSE Summary 12th Nov 2012
13th Nov 2012
% Change
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)
1238.30
1234.40
0.00
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)
315.91
677.46
1.14
47.29/52.71
53.78/46.21
N/A
17:19
14:22
N/A
1349.30
1857.00
0.38
395.00
700.00
N/A
29.27%
37.70%
N/A
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%) Advance:Decline Ratio Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn) Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: (Mn) Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates
Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover
Foreign Investor Equity Turnover th
13thNovember 2012
12 November 2012 Buys (Kes) 206,824,840 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
Sales (Kes)
Buys (Kes)
106,489,030
Sales (Kes)
475,644,155 Net Inflow/(Outflow) Position
100,335,810
150,537,210 325,106,945
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers
The Automobiles and accessories sector was the best performer for the day, registering gains of 0.72% supported by Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) up 1.45% to a VWAP of Kes.3.50 and Marshalls E.A. Ltd (NSE:MASH) up 1.43% to a VWAP of 14.20. The total index performance decreased 0.48% where 7 of the 10 segments closed in negative territory. The Investment Sector was the worst sector performer for the day, declining 1.76%. Losses are attributed to the 6.49% decline of Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (NSE: OCL) to a VWAP of Kes.3.60. Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Sector
Constituents
Price Performance (% Change)
Automobiles and Accessories
4
0.72
Commercial and services Energy and Petroleum
9 4
Banking
10
0.60 0.06 -0.08
Manufacturing and Allied
9
-0.17
Agriculturals
7
-0.66
Construction and Allied
5
-1.00
Telecommunication and Technology
2
-1.04
Insurance
6
-1.48
Investment
9
-1.76
Total Index Source: NSE & Genghis Capital
60
-0.48
2
Daily Market Note Trading Ideas: The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year. Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES) Price at 12 Month Recommendation Target Price
Company
Current Price
Upside Potential
Return to Date
Recommendation
Centum Investments Ltd
14.55
19.55
12.50
36.06%
-14.09%
BUY
Equity Bank Limited
15.80
19.90
24.50
-23.12%
55.06%
KenolKobil Limited
9.80
16.90
14.80
12.43%
51.02%
NIC Bank Limited
26.50
45.50
42.00
7.69%
58.49%
EA Cables Ltd
11.80
14.55
11.15
23.37%
-5.51%
Athi River Mining Ltd
156.00
220.00
219.00
0.45%
40.38%
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
88.50
123.40
119.00
3.57%
34.46%
KCB Group Ltd
18.50
33.10
30.00
9.37%
62.16%
SELL HOLD BUY BUY HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY BUY BUY HOLD BUY BUY HOLD
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
7.20
22.25
19.65
11.69%
172.92%
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
15.85
21.00
18.35
12.62%
15.77%
153.00
233.60
231.00
1.11%
50.98%
4.00
6.25
6.30
-0.80%
57.50%
Nation Media Group Ltd British American Investments Bamburi Cement Ltd
168.00
201.00
176.00
12.44%
4.76%
Cooperative Bank Limited
11.55
18.50
12.50
32.43%
8.23%
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
10.05
15.35
12.20
20.52%
21.39%
KenGen Ltd
8.30
16.25
9.90
39.08%
19.28%
Jubilee Holdings Ltd
163.00
186.00
170.00
8.60%
4.29%
Sasini Ltd
10.90
15.50
11.90
23.23%
9.17%
Housing Finance Ltd
13.65
27.00
15.00
44.44%
9.89%
Scangroup Ltd
49.25
59.60
65.00
-9.06%
31.98%
Portfolio Return Source: Genghis Capital Ltd
34.41%
Fixed Income: Government Seeks Kes.8bn… Money Markets: The interbank rate declined to 7.91% from 8.64%. Primary Markets: The 182-DayT-Bill was auctioned on Wednesday, 14th November 2012 while the 91Day T-Bill will be auctioned the following day. The government will be seeking Kes.4Bn from each paper. Secondary Markets: Bond turnover increased by another 0.38%to Kes.1.86Bn with 30 deals conducted. Infrastructure bonds accounted for the bulk of the activity accounting for 37.7% of the today’s activity with a turnover of Kes.700Mn.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CD’s Tenor Kenya Uganda Tanzania
U.S
LIBOR (USD)
91 Day
10.35%
9.69%
11.98%
0.09%
0.21%
182 Day
10.92%
14.68%
13.13%
0.14%
0.31%
1 Year
11.94%
13.93%
13.40%
0.18%
0.88%
2 Year
12.50%
14.84%
14.53%
0.30%
--
5 Year
11.86%
12.16%
14.49%
0.72%
--
10 Year
12.71%
15.28%
14.20%
1.71%
--
Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital
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Daily Market Note Currency: KES Recovers Lossesâ&#x20AC;Ś Performance: The local currency was fairly stable in the day as it recorded gains against all currencies but two in Table 8.The largest gains were 0.623% against the UGX and 0.46% in the ZAR/KES pair. The losses were 0.15% against both the USD and TZS. The Euro dipped as the IMF and the European Commission failed to agree on a long term plan to reduce Greeceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s debt. Table 8: Currency Rate
USD/KES
12thNov 2012 85.40
13thNov 2012 85.53
GBP/KES
135.86
135.75
EUR/KES
108.67
108.51
ZAR/KES
9.81
9.76
KES/UGX
30.21
30.40
KES/TZS
18.68
18.65
1.56
1.56
Currency Pair
INR/KES Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the Know Sure Thing and Trading Envelope indicators on the USDKES currency pair over a one year period. They both signify an improvement in the volatility of the currency pair due to the tightening policy adopted by the Estimates government in 2011 extended in the current year.
4
Daily Market Note Genghis Index: Large-Cap Index
Table 9: Genghis Index Performance Genghis Large-Cap Index Indicator
Previous
Price Index Performance (%)
Current
% Change
0.93%
0.02%
N/A
1013.685
1013.615
-0.01%
No. of Shares Traded (000)
12,270
25,724
109.64%
P/E Ratio
10.52x
10.52x
N/A
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)
Price Index Performance (%) Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)
The best performing counter in this segment was KenGen Ltd (NSE: KEGN) up 2.58%. Losing by the biggest margin was Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd (NSE: BBK) down 2.93%.
Genghis Mid-Cap Index Indicator
The index gained 0.02% with Market Capitalisation holding steady at Kes.1.013Bn.
Previous
Current
% Change
0.87%
0.01%
N/A
Mid-Cap Index
147.485
146.943
-0.37%
No. of Shares Traded (000)
11,052
1,817
-83.56%
P/E Ratio
7.01x
6.96x
N/A
The Index gained to close at 0.01% over yesterday’s close as Market Capitalisation decreased to Kes.146Bn.
Previous
Current
% Change
Price Index Performance
0.04%
-0.45%
N/A
This section’s best performer for the daywas East Africa Portland Cement Co. Ltd (NSE: PORT) up 8.98%.
Market Capitalization (Kes.Bn)
12.607
12.563
-0.35%
70
152
118.08%
12.57x
12.53X
N/A
Genghis Small-Cap Index Indicator
No. of Shares Traded (000) P/E Ratio
Losing by the biggest margin was Investments Ltd (NSE: CARB) down 8.00%.
Carbacid
Small-Cap Index Source: Genghis Capital
D
Price performance had a 0.45% decline as Market Capitalization decreased to Kes.12.56Bn. Gaining by the biggest margin was Kakuzi Ltd (NSE: KUKZ) up 1.43%. Losing by the biggest margin was Sameer Africa Ltd (NSE: FIRE) shedding 2.82%.
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Daily Market Note
GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05
Total Shares Outstanding
Mkt Cap. Kshs Mn.
Total Shares Traded
Price Change
EPS
DPS
P/E
Dividend Yield - %
40,000,000,000
188,000,000,000
7,261,300
-2.08%
0.32
0.22
14.69
4.68%
790,774,356
191,367,394,152
1,083,200
0.00%
13.46
8.75
17.98
3.62%
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50
3,702,777,020
90,718,036,990
4,528,400
1.03%
2.79
1.00
8.78
4.08%
Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50
5,431,536,000
80,386,732,800
2,278,500
-0.67%
1.49
1.50
9.93
10.14%
Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00
362,959,275
63,880,832,400
300
0.00%
14.44
10.00
12.19
5.68%
Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
287,077,133
66,314,817,723
3,300
0.43%
19.75
11.00
11.70
4.76%
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00
3,492,369,900
43,654,623,750
793,100
-0.40%
1.53
0.40
8.17
3.20%
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00
2,950,259,818
88,507,794,540
1,226,100
0.00%
3.72
1.85
8.06
6.17%
KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50
2,198,361,456
21,763,778,414
290,200
-0.50%
1.28
0.60
7.73
6.06%
British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00
100,000,000
46,200,000,000
800
-0.65%
30.98
30.50
14.91
6.60%
Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50
157,118,572
36,294,390,132
13,900
1.32%
12.70
8.00
18.19
3.46%
CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00
273,684,211
10,536,842,124
14,100
-0.65%
5.99
0.00
6.43
0.00%
Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00
461,615,483
5,493,224,248
153,400
1.71%
3.58
0.25
3.32
2.10%
1,530,000,000
8,415,000,000
7,611,200
-4.35%
1.32
0.50
4.17
9.09%
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00
163,037,108
19,401,415,852
111,400
-0.83%
13.58
1.70
8.76
1.43%
Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50
633,024,000
11,615,990,400
1,544,000
-0.27%
2.16
0.45
8.50
2.45%
99,055,000
21,693,045,000
400
-1.35%
11.63
2.00
18.83
0.91%
358,997,784
15,077,906,928
42,200
0.00%
6.72
0.50
6.25
1.19%
1,009,321,825,453
26,955,800
-0.40%
8.19
4.40
10.48
4.20%
East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00
Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00
Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00
GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50
604,947,068
7,561,838,350
3,241,200
0.00%
1.79
0.00
6.98
0.00%
KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05
1,471,761,200
21,782,065,760
392,900
1.02%
2.21
1.00
6.70
6.76%
Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00
284,789,128
18,368,898,756
62,500
4.03%
2.55
0.70
25.29
1.09%
National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
280,000,000
5,334,000,000
1,226,100
0.26%
3.19
0.40
5.97
2.10%
90,000,000
3,982,500,000
8,900
-2.75%
6.24
0.50
7.09
1.13%
148,210,640
5,706,109,640
2,200
-1.91%
4.51
1.30
8.54
3.38%
54,450,000
9,256,500,000
9,200
-1.73%
33.00
4.50
5.15
2.65%
CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50
582,709,440
7,866,577,440
0
0.00%
-0.31
0.00
-43.55
0.00%
Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50
600,000,000
7,320,000,000
57,500
-1.21%
3.19
0.35
3.82
2.87%
Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
235,750,000
3,536,250,000
135,700
0.00%
2.70
1.20
5.56
8.00%
Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
175,028,706
2,424,147,578
35,900
0.00%
3.05
0.00
4.54
0.00%
Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00
33,980,265
3,907,730,475
0
0.00%
8.89
5.00
12.94
4.35%
Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
96,000,000
3,720,000,000
200
-3.13%
2.31
1.00
16.77
2.58%
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
253,125,000
2,822,343,750
12,000
-0.89%
1.15
1.00
9.70
8.97%
AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00
208,084,296
957,187,762
3,112,200
0.00%
0.53
0.00
8.68
0.00%
74,059,026
1,740,387,111
0
0.00%
2.96
0.00
7.94
0.00%
British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10
2,150,000,000
13,545,000,000
317,500
0.80%
-1.09
0.15
-5.78
2.38%
CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00
2,179,615,440
7,846,615,584
1,536,700
0.00%
0.27
0.09
17.04
1.96%
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00
265,424,636
5,215,594,097
315,300
2.88%
1.47
0.00
13.37
0.00%
Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS
273,950,284
6,163,881,390
11,000
0.00%
1.23
0.25
18.29
1.11%
CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00
515,270,364
3,426,547,921
48,500
-3.62%
1.84
0.00
3.61
0.00%
Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00
228,055,500
2,713,860,450
58,000
0.42%
1.72
1.00
6.92
8.40%
19,525,446
2,206,375,398
100
0.00%
7.71
6.80
14.66
6.02%
147,404,411,462
10,583,600
-0.32%
3.96
1.10
6.97
2.77%
E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00 TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00 Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00
B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT 278,342,393
974,198,376
127,200
1.45%
0.35
0.20
10.00
5.71%
Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00
8,756,320
1,742,507,680
1,300
-0.50%
93.74
57.50
2.12
28.89%
Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00
19,599,999
1,391,599,929
72,200
0.00%
28.06
3.75
2.53
5.28%
Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00
60,000,000
1,110,000,000
2,200
0.27%
7.79
1.10
2.37
5.95%
Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00
22,279,616
534,710,784
0
0.00%
7.78
0.55
3.08
2.29%
Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00
75,708,873
1,003,142,567
2,700
0.38%
2.81
0.75
4.72
5.66%
Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
23,727,000
901,626,000
0
0.00%
5.44
1.25
6.99
3.29%
Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00
210,000,000
346,500,000
9,700
3.12%
-0.59
-
-2.80
0.00%
Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS
16,078,500
397,942,875
400
-4.81%
1.36
1.25
18.20
5.05%
City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
5,728,314
2,033,551,470
3,241,200
-0.56%
6.12
4.00
58.01
1.13%
Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS
58,500,000 3,912,000
585,000,000 489,000,000
0 0
0.00% 1.00%
2.33 19.93
1.50 7.50
4.29 6.27
15.00% 6.00%
The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS
1,200,000
516,000,000
0
0.00%
33.70
7.50
12.76
1.74%
Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
35,403,790
130,994,023
1,400
-2.63%
-6.47
-
-0.57
0.00%
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
40,000,000
144,000,000
10,200
-6.49%
0.38
0.10
9.47
2.78%
Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00
14,393,106
204,382,105
100
1.43%
-11.80
-
-1.20
0.00%
Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS
12,868,124
38,604,372 12,543,760,181
0 3,468,600
0.00% -0.43%
0.04 11.23
5.11
75.00 12.43
0.00% 5.22%
6
Daily Market Note
Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@genghis-capital.com Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@genghis-capital.com Report By: Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@genghis-capital.com Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@genghis-capital.com Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: gweru@genghis-capital.com George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@genghis-capital.com Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@genghis-capital.com Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@genghis-capital.com Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.
Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi. Tel: +254 20 2774760 Fax: +254 20 246334
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