gairrhydd
FEBRUARY.18.2008
19
US ELECTION SPECIAL
POLITICS@gairrhydd.COM
The Fall of the House of Bush
Oliver Lewis analyses the Republican chances at retaining the White House and how they urgently need to carve out a new era post-Bush
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s the final states complete their caucuses, it is important to note how much the news has been hijacked by the historical implications of either the first female or black president receiving their party’s nomination for the 2008 presidential elections. But despite much attention being directed at the Democratic race, the Republican drive is moving towards choosing the possible replacement for George W. Bush. After Super Tuesday, the Republican camp now have two candidates out of the four, the ex-navy senator for Arizona John McCain and Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister and the previous Governor for Arkansas. Since the first Presidential primary in Iowa on January 3, the eight original candidates have been siphoned down to four. Among those who withdrew their nomination was the pro-life ex-mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani and the multi-millionaire ex-Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. McCain has been identified by many political pundits as having a sizeable edge over Huckabee, but he still must
strengthen his campaign, as he lost to Huckabee in the Kansas and Louisiana caucuses. Huckabee is more popular than McCain with Republican voters in the southern states, which predominantly share his devout religious views that support his Baptist minister background.
McCain’s liberalslanted views may be instrumental in securing the often sought after swing states
Huckabee has received call for his withdrawal for the sake of party unity, but he has continued to ignore such clamours. Contrastingly, McCain is seen by some in his own party as a maverick, not anchored by modern American conservatism. McCain has often taken a liberal stance on issues of immigration and “enhanced integration techniques” of suspected terror suspects, implemented by George W. Bush. These ‘liberal-slanted’ views may be instrumental in securing the often sought-after ‘swing voters’, those voters that are enticed by the more centrist leanings. McCain still has some work to do
to unite his party due to his labelling as a ‘maverick’, and is now seeking to bolster his campaign and increase its momentum. As of February 12 McCain has 17 states with 729 delegates, while Huckabee is trailing behind with eight states and 241 delegates, due to the method of winner-takes-all in delegate stakes. The closest Republican candidate to McCain was Mitt Romney who, as of Super Tuesday, had 11 states and 211 delegates – yet a week later on the February 12 he suspended his campaign.
Huckabee is more popular with Republican voters than McCain in the southern states Romney stated that by staying in the race he would only “forestall the launch of a national campaign, and frankly I’d be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Senator Barack to win.” At this point less than half of the fifty states have voiced their opinions in the
form of a vote, with the final Republican primary taking place in Indiana on the 9th and 10th of June. The primaries will then culminate in the National Convention, which will be held in Minneapolis, Minnesota from September 1 until September 4, 2008, where the delegates will vote on and select a candidate. A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,380) is required to become the party’s nominee. If there is no majority at this point, a candidate will be “brokered through”, which would see power brokers and instrumental Republicans negotiating and choosing a candidate based on their delegates, states and whom they perceive has the greatest chance of winning the presidency. With the image of Republican politics damaged by the presidency of George W. Bush, the war in Iraq and hard-line right-wing politics, many believe that 2008 will be the year the Democrats regain the White House. But as with presidential elections in the past, the only thing that is certain is that it will be the most interesting one in decades.
Portia Nicholson recounts her experiences as a Brit residing in America and how it shaped her opinion on the great divide between our democractic processes
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s a British citizen, I am from the apathetic creed who has virtually no interest in the present British political system. Especially during election time, it is the epitome of tedium to have one ex-Eton boy after another on their soapbox droning on about taxes, more taxes and how they will save the NHS. I feel there is little passion in our elections: no strong leaders and no fanfare. The last time I remember even a little excitement in politics was the Labour landslide of 1997, when we had to endure horrid televised images of Labour MPs gyrating to Things Can Only Get Better. Normally though, the only images of our great political system I see are monotonous debates at the Houses of Parliament where one MP slates another, to which all the other MPs start baying; it honestly sounds like a cattle market, not the forefront of politics. Whilst this is obviously essential to the democratic process, I still want to slip into a coma every time I accidentally
switch onto a parliament channel. America, however, is a different ball game altogether. I have a morbid fascination with American elections, and having previously lived and worked in the US, I can safely say I love the runup to elections.
I feel there is little passion in British elections with no strong leaders and no fanfare It’s so much more alive than our elections. Oh, I remember sitting enraptured at the never-ending television commercials full of grand gestures and bold statements: “Together we can change America” (“Can we?”, I think excitedly, before remembering that I am not actually an American citizen). I also remember driving down the highways and seeing endless candidate billboards, months and months before even any primaries took place. I have seen people with posters in their homes and wooden signs in the front gardens pledging support for their preferred candidate. The last time I saw a politically-mo-
tivated poster was in the front room of a student house that read ‘Free Nelson Mandela’. I wasn’t sure if it was meant to be a kooky, ironic student thing or if they hadn’t read a newspaper in the last eighteen years. I also love the momentum of an election: the extensive press coverage, radio phone-ins and constantly monitored opinion polls. This particular race to the White House has been very engaging for the American population, given that the US could see a female president or a black president for the first time. This has sparked some furious and heated debates about the contenders. It’s great to listen to people who have an opinion on who is going to be running their country. The recent US elections have drawn people out who wouldn’t normally vote or get involved in elections. Mary Lou Boucher from Cape Cod told me that whilst you couldn’t escape US elections in the past, this is the first election she is actually following. “I wanted to vote for Richardson, but I believe he’s out now. He was really into helping schools get better and giving teachers more pay, and he has actually been over to Iraq.
I remember sitting enraptured at the never-ending television commercials full of grand gestures “Though after watching the debate from New Hampshire last month I’m
actually thinking about voting for Clinton. I was really against her before, just because of who her husband is, but after what she has talked about, what she has done so far, with health care programs and pulling us out of the war, I think she will do a fine job.”
Can you imagine Gordon Brown knocking on your door handing out some election flyers?
It’s also a strange concept to think that the presidential candidates organise town hall meetings, rallies and engage with the American public during election time. Can you imagine Gordon Brown knocking on your door handing out some election flyers and cheerfully enquiring, “Can I count on your vote?” I imagine most people’s response would be, “There’s an election?” I realise that an election is not all about bunting (when was the last time we had bunting in the UK?) but I do think it is about passion, something we distinctly seem to be lacking in the UK. I say we get Brown and co. out in the streets with streamers, all the bunting in all the land, maybe a funny hat and proudly waving those British flags with a bit of pride.