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London 2050 – Grow up or grow out?

June 11th, 2014 London’s Living Room City Hall Twitter: #London2050


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Lisa Taylor

Director, Future of London


Future of London is: • Not-for-profit urban policy network, focused on delivery

• Guided by 33 LA, HA and Trust members – and growing • Connecting cross-sector practitioners across London in regeneration, housing, infrastructure • Capacity-building for all levels: courses, reports, events • Independent, responsive, top-tier engagement • Real involvement with carefully chosen partners


Agenda 9.00

Registration, coffee/refreshments and welcome

9.15

Panel discussion - London 2050: Grow up or grow out? Keynote: Sir Edward Lister, GLA • Who, how many, and where: Adam Challis, JLL • Transport strategies: Michèle Dix, TfL • Working within London’s fabric: Chris Hall, GVA • What density can look like: Andrew Beharrell, PTE

• Preparing for change: Pat Hayes, LB Ealing 10.30 Moderated Q&A and discussion 11.00 Networking and refreshments


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Keynote

Sir Edward Lister

Chief of Staff and Deputy Mayor, Policy and Planning, Greater London Authority


Sir Edward Lister for Future of London


WHY A 2020 VISION: A POPULATION CHALLENGE NOW o London needs more buildings, with commercial and residential space. o By 2031 there will be:

o 1.3 million more Londoners: equivalent to at least 50,000 pa o 0.8 million more households o 0.7 million more jobs

o And the need for o o o o

34,900 1.3m 1.3m 40,000

more homes: likely to be higher 2.2m sq ft of office space in central London alone 2.2 m sq ft of comparison retail space more hotel bedrooms


A LONG TERM PLAN o 33 Opportunity Areas and 10 Intensification Areas o Growth Areas (including parts of the Thames Gateway and London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough) o The Central Activities Zone o Two Enterprise Zones at the Royal Docks and Battersea o Over 200 Town Centres, the focus for projected growth in retail floorspace o Strategic Outer London Development Centres


HOUSING & LAND

HEADLINE AMBITIONS: Secure a long-term and stable housing settlement for the GLA to support the supply of homes across all tenures in the capital. Legislate on strategic planning decisions to allow the Mayor to call in more, and unblock stalled decisions. Remove the cap on local authorities’ borrowing power to enable them to build more new affordable homes. Require all land owning Whitehall bodies to publish details of their landholdings in the capital and establish Joint Ventures so that surplus sites can be brought forward to market. Enable more middle income Londoners to own their own homes, through expanding the Housing Covenant for Londoners; shared equity and part ownership schemes. Social landlords and boroughs must give greater priority to working households when it comes to affordable housing provision.


GROW UP OR GROW OUT?


THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT


THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT


A CHANGING SKYLINE

As the strategic planning body for London, the role of the GLA is to balance achieving economic growth without compromising quality of life for Londoners. These are not mutually exclusive; in fact one depends upon the other.


A CHANGING SKYLINE

200 tall buildings going through the planning system.

We have put in place high-level place standards to make sure the designs last. And where possible, we are building in clusters.


CASE STUDY: VNEB With the reform of Nine Elms - St George’s Wharf, Battersea Power Station and the new American Embassy we will soon see this kind of regeneration moving to the South Wes, meaning areas outside the City will benefit too. Battersea Power Station lay empty for 30 years until the Mayor worked collaboratively with Wandsworth and Lambeth to: • create the Vauxhall Nine Elms Opportunity Area Planning Framework; • secure the funding for the Northern Line extension; • attract investment to unlock the building supported by high quality regeneration.


NEW AREAS OF FOCUS


OPPORTUNITY AREAS – BROWNFIELD LAND


KEY PLACES OF CHANGE The challenges of urbanization can be answered by developing opportunity areas • Major reservoir of brownfield land • Significant capacity for new housing and commercial development • Linked to public transport improvements

• 2/3 of all London’s growth can be accommodated within the existing Opportunity Areas


MAYORAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATIONS


CASE STUDY:OLD OAK COMMON Objectives: 1. To support the major development of the surrounding Opportunity Area 2: To create a strategic transport interchange for west London and to relieve pressure at Euston 3: To deliver HS2/HS1 connection 4: To mitigate environmental impacts


OLD OAK COMMON Delivery options:

• Status Quo • Enhanced local partnership arrangements, as VNEB • MDC with no major landholdings or budget • MDC with no major land holdings or capital budget with shared service arrangements with GLA • MDC with no major landholdings or capital budget PLUS dedicated Chief Executive and staff • MDC with major landholdings and capital budgets transferred into it

WHY? 24,000 homes 50-100,00 jobs £3.5 – 6.2GVA to UK economy


OUTER BOROUGHS Accommodating the scale of change will need to involve the Outer London boroughs. We need to answer: • How can we build more densely in outer London? • How can we accommodate London’s population growth across all boroughs?


BUILD UP AND OUT o Develop the Opportunity Areas – brownfield sites across inner and outer boroughs o An Infrastructure Investment Plan to 2050 o Transport, energy, homes and commercial development for the longer term o Costs and benefits of each (social and economic) o Backed by new funding and finance options


Sir Edward Lister for Future of London


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Who, how many and where: growth by the numbers

Adam Challis

Head of Residential Research, Jones Lang LaSalle


Growing Up, Growing Out in London: Who, What and Where Where The Who, Adam Challis Head of UK Residential Research June 2014


The London Residential Market: Global Global Demand


Global Flows, with London at the Centre Polarisation of global wealth towards interconnected global cities

Moscow New York Vancouver

London Paris

Shanghai Tokyo

Dubai

Hong Kong

Singapore

Sydney


Population is Changing... But Unevenly


London Development Completions & Need The facts we know…but what are the impacts? No. of housing units per year (000s)

45

Need = 42,000 + homes pa

40 35

85,000 home shortfall in past 6 years

30

How big can the shortfall grow?

25 20

15 10 5

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, CLG, London Plan

Completions

Dec 18

Dec 17

Dec 16

Dec 15

Dec 14

Dec 13

Dec 12

Dec 11

Dec 10

Dec 09

Dec 08

Dec 07

Dec 06

Dec 05

Dec 04

Dec 03

Dec 02

Dec 01

0


Residual Land Value: Under Pressure …and under constant change End Value ‘Buildability’

Market Sentiment

Build Costs

Land

Dev. Funding

Profit

% Affordable Planning (CIL/ S106)


International Developers in London Some old, but many new to the London market Development

Company

Nationality

Greenwich Peninsula

Knight Dragon

Hong Kong

Battersea Power Station

SP Setia

Malaysia

Convoys Wharf

Hutchison Whampoa

Hong Kong

Lots Road Power Station

Hutchison Whampoa

Hong Kong

Royal Wharf

Oxley

Singapore

Elephant & Castle

Lend Lease

Australia

Royal Mint Street

IJM

Malaysia

Canning Town

Bouygues

France

Olympic Village

Qatari Diar

Qatar

Chelsea Barracks

Qatari Diar

Qatar

Shell Centre

Qatari Diar

Qatar

Wandsworth

Greenland

China

Canary Wharf

Greenland

China

Grosvenor Square

Lodha

India

Carey Street

Lodha

India

Nine Elms

Dalian Wanda

China

Royal Albert Dock

ABP

China

London’s global property market includes an increasingly global development industry

International developers control 9 of 50 largest development sites

This represents 28,000 homes, or around 140% of current annual supply in Greater London

Development site acquisition in London is challenging, so two potential impacts: • corporate acquisition • regional UK expansion


Enabling Modern London The pressures are global, but so are the solutions


A Few Concluding Comments… 

London’s population has grown by roughly 1.1 million people over the last decade and will grow by another million people over the next decade

Supply, supply, supply – but how?

Understand the land  Must reflect local demand and need  Complex and changing factors

The step change in housing delivery is possible and may already be taking place

Can we galvanise this demand to drive the best outcome for Londoners

www.residential.joneslanglasalle.co.uk


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Transport strategies for a shifting landscape

Michèle Dix

Managing Director, Group Planning, Transport for London


Future of London Grow up or Grow Out?

Michele Dix, Transport for London TfL Planning


Choices about London’s spatial development are fundamental to what infrastructure is required and where...

How many people in 2050?

Where will people work? Future shape of London?

?

What will happen beyond London’s boundary?

TfL Planning

Where will people in London live and ‘how’?

37


What will be the level of population we need to accommodate and provide access for...?

How many people in 2050?

Where will people work? Future shape of London?

?

What will happen beyond London’s boundary?

TfL Planning

Where will people in London live and ‘how’?

38


The starting point is London’s rapid population growth, which is expected to continue...

TfL Planning

39


How will London’s economy develop and where will people work...?

How many people in 2050?

Where will people work? Future shape of London?

?

What will happen beyond London’s boundary?

TfL Planning

Where will people in London live and ‘how’?

40


The central London economy drives London’s growth and is likely to continue to do so...

TfL Planning

41


There are three ways in which CAZ employment can grow, following the ‘agglomeration’ model... Densification of existing areas of the CAZ through both redevelopment and accommodating more people in existing buildings Expanding the CAZ into surrounding areas close to PT hubs, eg King’s Cross, London Bridge, VNEB Creating / expanding a small number of satellites linked to the CAZ and with similar emloyment densities, such as Canary Wharf, Stratford and Old Oak Common TfL Planning

42


... and two ways in which employment growth could follow a more ‘decentralised’ model

This might involve the creation of a series of employment hubs in outer London, eg Croydon, Brent Cross...

Or a series of hubs outside London

TfL Planning

43


We’ve tested the impact of moving growth from the CAZ to London ‘mini hubs’

200,000 jobs CAZ 120,000 commuters

TfL Planning

New hubs outside CAZ

44


... the loss of productivity to the economy would outweigh the cost savings in infrastructure

Key Q: as employment density continues to increase at what point (if any) do diminishing returns set in?

TfL Planning

45


Where will people in London live and what lifestyle changes might there be...?

How many people in 2050?

Where will people work? Future shape of London?

?

What will happen beyond London’s boundary?

TfL Planning

Where will people in London live and ‘how’?

46


London needs to accommodate many more people... • London’s population last peaked at 8.9m in 1930s • Around 60,000 homes being built a year then • London’s current residential construction pipeline equates only to an average of c25,000-30,000 new homes a year • Obvious starting point...’max out’ development sites already identified... • But many currently not well connected into transport system • Development of current growth areas as currently planned will take us to c9m population... TfL Planning


Beyond currently identified opportunities there are a number of scenarios for accommodating London’s growth Where will people live? How feasible / acceptable are different options?

More growth beyond existing boundary?

Densification of of London? Densification London? Hubs in Outer London eg town centres?

New development around edge of London?

Densifying existing suburbs?

New towns?

New towns ?

Redevelopment / growth of EdgeDevelopme existing towns eg on coast? nt around edge of London?

TfL Planning

48


Can we densify existing areas and support a changing role of town centres...? • To achieve significantly higher densities in Outer London will require increasing overall transport capacity and developing high quality alternatives to the car • Quality of place becomes even more important with higher densities and for the acceptability of development and quality of life • Also many other factors to consider e.g. technology, environmental imperatives, social / demographic changes • This all has implications for transport e.g. increased importance of accessibility with more older people

Densification around high capacity PT nodes

TfL Planning

Extra space for walking and cycling

Place making and a better quality of life

High capacity PT including better orbital connections


Finally, what should be the balance between accommodating growth within London v beyond London...?

How many people in 2050?

Where will people work? Future shape of London?

?

What will happen beyond London’s boundary?

TfL Planning

Where will people in London live and ‘how’?

50


The London employment model is dependent on the dense rail network which focuses on central London...

TfL Planning

51


There is a massive programme of committed investment that will add around 30% to central London AM public transport peak capacity in the ten years from 2011...

TfL Planning

52


Thameslink, Crossrail, Tube Upgrades to 2030

Investments underway will deal with today's growth but will not address the challenges of 2030 and beyond

TfL Planning


These programmes are enabling Central London activities to expand ‌

TfL Planning

54


But much more is needed

TfL Planning

55


Crossrail 2 is as key scheme needed to support further growth beyond the 2030s

Some stations omitted for clarity

TfL Planning


But growth and aspirations for a better city will also place further immense pressure on London’s roads 1.6 million more people

Extra space for walking and cycling Extra space for walking and cycling Movement of people and goods by private vehicle

Mayor’s Transport TfL Strategy Planning investment

Place making and a better quality of life

57


We have looked at the effectiveness of various strategic measures that might reduce congestion Intelligent systems & traffic management

TfL Planning

Changing travel behaviour & managing demand

Further public transport enhancements beyond Mayor’s Transport Strategy

58


We are looking at providing new road space – to improve connectivity -River Crossings & other new replacement capacity eg tunnels City hubs / boulevards and iconic city quarters along the Inner Ring Road A12

Relief for City Fringe area

A40

Relief for Earls Court one-way system

TfL Planning

59


We have also been working to identify the best means of solving the UK’s aviation problem...

• Heathrow is full & falling behind

The Mayor is calling for a worldclass hub airport: •

This could be open by 2029

Make London & UK the best connected city & country in the world

Unlock growth across the UK regions

make air services reliable and resilient

• It only flies to half of the world’s fastest

growing cities • Demand forecast to double by 2050 • UK and London losing billions in lost trade

TfL Planning

60


... Infrastructure needed for a new airport could also support homes and jobs to the east of London

TfL Planning

61


Infrastructure to Support 2050 Growth needs to provide 1.

A modern, reliable and accessible system

2.

Faster, better, high capacity commuter links to central London

3.

Transport capacity and connections to homes and jobs across the city

4.

New links to unlock major new housing neighbourhoods

5.

A road network that supports both successful places and safe and efficient movement

6.

World-class international connections

7.

A better quality of life and an inspiring city

TfL Planning

62


How do we pay for this • Many big ideas for London’s road and rail networks, but how do we fund them and finance them?

• Principles of funding and financing London’s transport infrastructure needs to: – Identify who benefits – Structure accordingly

• Who benefits? – National tax payers – London transport users – Businesses / developers

TfL Planning

63


New ways of funding/financing needed Our current funding / finance model will not deliver the scale of infrastructure investment necessary to support this growing city. • More pressure on budgets means London must be seen to pay for much of its own infrastructure, with the principle of who benefits pays: • We need to look to: • Devolved funding to Mayor and boroughs • Additional London based taxes raised by the Mayor and boroughs (particularly on property) • Fares and charges

• Borrowing against future growth • Increased use of development corporations

• We need to make the case for change. TfL Planning

64


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Working within London’s fabric

Chris Hall

Director, GVA


Date Month Date Month

GVA

London 2050 – Grow up or grow out?

The In Between Proposition Future of London June 11, 2014

gva.co.uk


The In Between Proposition • London’s structure offers capacity in-between • Parallel opportunity to growing up, out • Social housing estates, town centres, high street corridors, fine grain surplus land • Significant scale of housing opportunity • Flexible, nimble, near term contribution • Space for innovation

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Sources of Supply Estate regeneration • Inefficient coverage and site frameworks • Underplayed density • Frequently achieving 150% plus new units

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Sources of Supply Estate regeneration • Inefficient coverage and site frameworks • Underplayed density • Frequently achieving 150% plus new units

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Sources of Supply Town Centres • Conversion of office • Consolidation of retail • Surface Car parks • Mixed use

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Sources of Supply High Street Corridors • Contracting high streets • Low density retail 80’s and 90’s • Service yards • Left over spaces • Obsolete office

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Scale of Opportunity A1010 Corridor/Tottenham High Rd • 3,000+ homes within 400m

North London – Six Boroughs • • • •

Smaller sites 0.25 to 2ha 400 sites Total site area: 250+ ha. Constrained capacity: 25,000+

Go East: Thames Estuary • 50% capacity in smaller sites • Those with capacity for 50 – 500 homes

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Accelerating In Between Delivery 1. Clear the Planning Path • Cluster sites • SPDs, Development Briefs – rapid supplement to local plans 2. Package small sites • Public sector land, contracting High streets, obsolete office, low density sites • Multiple site CPO if required for portfolio

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


Accelerating In Between Delivery 3. Incentivise Development • Loan guarantees for site preparation • Private Rental Scheme funding 4. Public - Private Delivery • Direct Borough delivery • Public sector assets • Localised joint ventures • Existing owners, new partners

Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


The In Between Opportunity • Near term increase in housing delivery • Strengthening of existing communities • Lower risks to innovation – design, technology, delivery • A new generation of small developers and contractors • Market-making, proof of local cases • Setting the stage for larger schemes • Diverse, flexible, nimble, open, dynamic response • More immediate response to entry costs, investment timeframes and organisational complexity of the large sites Short presentation title here / November 2010

gva.co.uk


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

What density can look like

Andrew Beharrell

Executive Director, Pollard Thomas Edwards


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Preparing for change

Pat Hayes

Executive Director, Regeneration and Housing, LB Ealing


London 2050: Grow up or grow out?

Moderated Q&A and discussion futureoflondon.org.uk

@futureofldn Future of London Twitter: #London2050


London 2050 – Grow up or grow out?

Thank you!

London 2050: Grow up or grow out?  
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