Gbp 2004 10 rpt phdthesishabitatecologyconservationprojectedpopulationviabilityofgrizzlybearsinwestc

Figure 8-4. Cartographic model depicting population viability modelling for grizzly bears in west-central Alberta, Canada. The process was repeated for each scenario and time period combination. ............................................................................... 244 Figure 8-5. Baseline (current) and future (50 and 100 years) landscapes projected from the forestry model PATCHWORKS, depicting two-pass and natural disturbancebased forestry patterns. ........................................................................................... 245 Figure 8-6. Mean operable (Crown lands) landscape values of attractive sink (ASf) and safe harbor (SHf) indices at 10-year intervals from 2004 (current) to 2104 (100years)....................................................................................................................... 246 Figure 8-7. Baseline (current) and projected (50 and 100 years) attractive sink index based on PATCHWORKS outputs, the habitat occupancy model (Hf), and risk model (Rf) for two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry scenarios............. 247 Figure 8-8. Baseline (current) and projected (50 and 100 years) safe harbor index based on PATCHWORKS outputs, the habitat occupancy model (Hf), and risk model (Rf) for two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry scenarios............................... 248 Figure 8-9. Baseline (current) and projected (50 and 100 years) relative habitat states based on PATCHWORKS outputs and a classification of the habitat occupancy (Hf) and the risk (Rf) models for two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry scenarios.................................................................................................................. 249 Figure 8-10. Trends (100-year period) in the composition of 5 relative habitat states on Crown lands for two scenarios (two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry).250 Figure 8-11. Estimated number of potential adult female territories (a.) and the number of effective (low risk of mortality) territories (b.) by decade for a 100-year simulation of two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry. ............................. 251 Figure 8-12. Territory risk (% of territory in high-risk condition) and status (x- effective [secure] territory; non-symbolized territories are considered non-effective) by year (baseline-current condition, year 50 and year 100) and forestry scenario (two-pass and natural disturbance-based forestry). Un-allocated regions of space too small to contain an individual territory are referred to as residual units. Major protected areas (Jasper National Park and Whitehorse Wildlands Provincial Park) are indicated by stippling.............................................................................................................. 252