Il quadro economico e finanziario DEF 2017 e futura Legge di Bilancio Riccardo Barbieri Hermitte Dipartimento del Tesoro Ministero dell’Economia e Finanze Roma, 11 maggio 2017
Un DEF più complesso rispetto agli anni scorsi
Nel 2016 l’economia italiana ha continuato a riprendere e il deficit di bilancio è risultato in linea con gli obiettivi;
Tuttavia, il 17 gennaio la Commissione Europea ha inoltrato una richiesta di manovra aggiuntiva pari a 0,2 punti di PIL strutturali.
La Commissione ha inoltre richiesto un Programma di Riforma ambizioso onde evitare una escalation della procedura MIP
Il Governo ha pertanto deciso di varare una manovra aggiuntiva all’interno di un ampio intervento di politica economica (D.L. 50)
2
La ripresa dell’economia sembra procedere a ritmo moderato 6 4 2 0
%
-2 -4 -6 -8 GDP (quarter-on-quarter annualised)
-10 -12
GDP (year-on-year)
-14 4Q 06
4Q 07
4Q 08
4Q 09
4Q 10
4Q 11
4Q 12
4Q 13
4Q 14
4Q 15
4Q 16
Source: ISTAT
3
Prezzi e salari in crescita lenta 6 GDP deflator
Wages per-capita (whole economy)
5
% year-on-year
4
3
2
1
0
-1 4Q 05 4Q06 4Q 07 4Q 08 4Q 09 4Q 10 4Q 11 4Q 12 4Q 13 4Q 14 4Q 15 4Q 16 Source: ISTAT
4
5,0
5,0
4,0
4,0
3,0
3,0
2,0
2,0
1,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
-1,0
-1,0 HICP (LHS)
HICP core
% year-on-year
% year-on-year
Inflazione bassa al netto dell’energia
PPI - consumer goods
-2,0 -2,0 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Source: ISTAT
5
Fiducia in aumento, soprattutto fra le imprese 120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Index
Index
120
Eurozone 70 Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Spain
Apr-14
Italy
Apr-15
Apr-16
70 Apr-17
Source: European Commission
6
Segnali positivi da investimenti… 10
30 20
5 10 0 -10
-5
-20 -10
Index
% year-on-year
0
-30 -40
-15 Gross fixed investment -20
-50
Order books (RHS)
-60
Order expectations (RHS) -25
-70 1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12
1Q13
1Q14
1Q15
1Q16
1Q17
Note: For order books and expectations data refer to April 2017. Source: ISTAT
7
…ed esportazioni 20
65 Trade weighted international PMI (RHS) PMI Manufacturing - New export orders (RHS)
15
60
55 10 50
Index
% year-on-year, 3-months moving avarage
Exports of goods, real
5 45 0
40
-5 Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
35 Apr-17
Source: MEF calculation based on ISTAT and MARKIT data
8
UE e USA le aree di maggior crescita per le esportazioni Jan. 2017 - Feb.2016, cumulative data, % year-on-year
20 United States
Spain France
10
Austria
0
Belgium Netherlands
-10 Mercosur
China
Germany
United Kingdom
OPEC
-20 -30
Russia
-40 -30
-20
-10 0 10 20 30 Jan. 2016 - Feb.2015, cumulative data, % year-on-year
40
50
Note: The green bubbles represent countries towards Italian exports rose 1/9.4 per cent over the 12 months until January 2017; the yellow ones indicate countries where exports growth is around 0.3/0.6 per cent; for the red ones, the decrease is included in the interval -11.3/-2.1 per cent. The size of globes represents the share of a country on Italian exports. Source: ISTAT 9
Riprende lievemente il credito bancario 15
10
% year-on-year
5
0
-5 Loans to firms
Loans to households
-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Source: Bank of Italy 10
Tassi bancari ai minimi storici 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
%
%
6
Germany
1 Mar-07
Mar-09
Spain Mar-11
Italy
Euro area Mar-13
France Mar-15
1 Mar-17
Source: ECB
11
Le sofferenze tendono a stabilizzarsi
% of total loans
18
20 Non financial corporation
Consumer households
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
% of total loans
20
0 0 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Source: Bank of Italy
12
Previsioni di medio termine April 2017 macroeconomic forecast Policy scenario (% change yoy)
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Real GDP
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
Domestic demand net of inventories
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.1
Inventories
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Net export
1.4
1.2
0.9
1.0
1.1
Nominal GDP
1.6
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.8
GDP deflator
0.8
1.2
1.7
1.9
1.7
Compensation per employee
0.3
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.5
Productivity (on GDP)
-0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.4
Unit labour cost (on GDP)
0.8
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.1
Employment (FTE)
1.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
Unemployment rate
11.7
11.5
11.1
10.5
10.0
Current account balance
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.8
Source: Economic and Financial Document 2017, April 11, 2017
13
Previsioni di medio termine April 2017 forecast: GDP components Policy scenario 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GDP
0.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
Imports
2.9
4.4
2.9
3.4
4.1
Final national consumption
1.2
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.7
Household consumption and NPISH
1.4
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.7
Government expenditure
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.7
Investment
1.3
1.9
3.2
3.6
3.8
- machinery, equipment and other
2.9
3.6
3.0
2.7
3.2
- construction
1.1
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.8
Exports
2.4
3.7
3.2
3.5
3.5
Source: Economic and Financial Document 2017, April 11, 2017
14
Risultati e obiettivi di finanza pubblica Economic and Financial Document 2017 % of GDP
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
General government balance
-2.7
-2.4
-2.1
-1.2
-0.2
0.0
Structural balance (1)
-0.5
-1.2
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.0
Change in the structural balance
0.3
-0.7
-0.3
0.8
0.8
-0.1
Primary balance
1.5
1.5
1.7
2.5
3.5
3.8
Interest expenditure
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.8
Public debt (2)
132.1
132.6
132.5
131.0
128.2
125.7
Public debt ex support EZ (3)
128.5
129.1
129.1
127.7
125.0
122.6
(1) Net of one-off measures and cyclically adjusted. Discrepancies, if any, are due to rounding. (2) Gross of financial support to Eurozone countries. In 2015 and 2016 the revisions made by Bank of Italy on the nominal value of the stock of debt of the Public Administrations published in March, have led to a increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. (3) Net of financial support given to other Euro area countries.
Source: Economic and Financial Document 2017.
15
Saldi di bilancio e andamento del rapporto debito/PIL 10
140
8 130
6 4
120
0
110
-2 100
-4
% of GDP
% of GDP
2
-6 -8
Net borrowing (LHS)
90
Primary balance (LHS)
-10
Structural balance (LHS)
-12
Debt/GDP gross (RHS)
80
Debt/GDP net of support to EZ (RHS)
-14
70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: ISTAT, ESA 2010. 16
La questione del saldo strutturale Output Gaps DEF 2017 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-3.8 -2.7 -1.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.0
Enhanced methodology -4.5 -3.4 -2.5 -1.9 -1.4 -1.0
Structural Deficit DEF 2017 -0.5 -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 0.0
Enhanced methodology -0.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 0.5
Source: 2016, NDA and MEF elaborations
 On the basis of an enhanced potential output estimation, Italian public finances would have reached MTO already in 2015 and could deviate from it, thanks to Stability Pact Flexibility until 2018 attaining the MTO in 2019.  In 2019 and 2020 there would be a structural surplus of 0.5% of GDP. 17
Proiezioni del debito pubblico nel medio termine 145 135
% of GDP
125 115 105 Debt/GDP Baseline scenario 95 Debt/GDP Optimistic scenario
85
Debt/GDP Pessimistic scenario
75 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
18
Programma di bilancio per il 2017-2020
For 2017, the deficit is reduced by 0.2 percentage points of GDP, to 2.1% of GDP. The adjustment consists of measures to combat tax evasion, higher duties on tobacco and lotteries, and spending cuts.
The policy scenario then targets a drop in the deficit to 1.2% of GDP in 2018, 0.2% in 2019 and a balanced budget in 2020.
Structural deficit (net of extraordinary outlays) fully compliant with the MTO in 2019 and close to a structural balance in 2020.
Debt-to-GDP ratio already expected to slightly decline in 2017 and reach a level below 126% in 2020.
19
Decreto Legge 50 (‘manovrina’)
Extension of the split-payment
Flat tax rate of 21% on income from short term rental agreements
Revision of the tax base for ACE
Measures to increase VAT compliance (stricter rules on VAT deductions and compensations) Increase in excise duties on tobacco to be implemented by decree of the Minister of Economy and Finance Increase in taxation of lotteries, betting and tobacco Stricter rules on foreclosure procedures. 20
Decreto Legge 50 (‘manovrina’)
Spending cuts on missions and programmes of Ministries in 2017 (about €500 million of savings of which €300 million deriving from selective spending cuts based on the three-year framework set by the 2016 reform of public finance and accounting law)
Measures to reduce tax litigation (including broader application of mediation)
21
Manovrina: utilizzo risorse (1)
Reduction of the VAT hike scheduled for 2018
Investment in railways and public transports
Excise duties hike scheduled for 2018 is repealed Additional measures for territories hit by seismic events: i) new fund to speed up reconstruction (€1 bn from 2017 to 2019) and refinancing of the existing reconstruction fund; ii) extension of current fiscal incentives; iii) setting up of urban free zones Financial leeway and additional resources for regions and local entities (labour turnover increase, investments and public infrastructure development) 22
Manovrina: utilizzo risorse (2)
Further measures for development:
Application of the Equity crowdfunding to limited liability SMEs
(previously reserved to innovative SMEs and then extended to SMEs by the Budget Law for 2017)
Temporal
extension of incentives to innovative Start-up (from four to five years)
Performance-related
pay regime (‘premi di produttività’): social contributions allowances instead of favouring tax regime.
23
Contenimento della spesa corrente Current expenditure excluding interest payments (1999=100) 240 Belgium 220
Spain
200
Germany France
180 Netherlands 160
Italy (net of â‚Ź80 bonus)
140 120 100 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Source: MEF elaborations on European Commission AMECO data and ISTAT 24
Riduzione della pressione fiscale 45,0 Fiscal pressure (at current legislation) 44,5
Fiscal pressure (at current legislation net of â‚Ź80 bonus)
% of GDP
44,0 43,5 43,0 42,5 42,0 41,5 41,0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Up to 2016 ISTAT database. As from 2017 MEF elaboration on projections of 2017 EFD
25
Andamento del fabbisogno di cassa Borrowing requirements (cumulated values over the last 12 months) 100 General Government
90
State
Euro bn
80 70 60
50 40 Oct - 13
Apr - 14
Oct - 14
'Apr - 15
Oct - 15
Apr - 16
Oct - 16
Apr - 17
Source: MEF elaboration on State General Accounting Department data for State; Bank of Italy for General Government.
26
Le sfide della manovra per il 2018
L’obiettivo annunciato nel DEF richiede una manovra di circa l’un percento del PIL al netto di nuove iniziative. Infatti:
Tendenziale = 1,3% del PIL
…ad esempio riduzione del cuneo fiscale sul lavoro.
Tendenziale + politiche vigenti + disattivazione clausole = 2,5%
Manovrina (effetto su 2018) = 0,3% Tendenziale aggiornato = 2,5% - 0,3% = 2,2% Obiettivo programmatico = 1,2% DEF 2017: “Il governo intende anche trovare spazi per misure espansive e di riduzione della pressione fiscale”…
27
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