Future airline pilots have always been faced with tough choices, but Covid-19 has added an additional layer of complexity which makes taking the path that’s right for you even more important. Rebecca Kwo and Ian Seager report…
© Martijn Kort
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et’s dive right in to the big question everyone is, or at least should be, asking, “When will things change, when will airlines start pilot recruitment again?” Back in 2019, and even at the start of 2020, we were all talking about Boeing’s predictions of 800,000+ pilot positions needing to be filled over the next 20 years. Life was good, airlines were hiring, and it seemed to many that the bonanza would go on forever. However, Covid-19 had other ideas, and a year later the airline industry is facing one of its toughest times ever outside of a world war. This year’s Boeing pilot and technician outlook has, unsurprisingly, revised its estimates downwards, although it is still predicting the need for 763,000 pilots worldwide over the next 20 years. Its view of pilot numbers in Europe is that they’ll drop by 1,000 to 147,000 over the next 20 years, (the full report can be downloaded and read here). As we’ve seen, things can change very quickly, but Boeing and other forecasters (without skin in the pilot training game) are confident of the longer term prospects. But what about the short-term, what are things going to look like when you finish training? Assuming that you haven’t already started your journey, by the time you choose a school and pathway (integrated vs modular etc.), go through selection, get a Class One Medical etc., it is likely to be something like 24 months before you graduate, at the very earliest. With some pathways taking perhaps five years, should you choose to spread your training over a longer period by going modular? You are effectively trying to figure out what the airline world will look like in two to five years, and that’s pretty much impossible to do with any degree of certainty. There are perhaps early signs that things are slowly picking up. Holiday companies report significant growth in bookings, vaccination in the UK seems to be advancing well, some airlines are slowly bringing flight crew back up to speed, and of course the pandemic would not have stopped – and has probably hastened – retirement and industry leaving numbers. Given the poor state of the airline industry today, it seems probable that it will be in a better place two to three years from now. Good contingency planning is more important than ever. You might want a plan C to add to your plan B, you will want to thoroughly research your options before 2021-2022 | Learn to Fly Guide | 27
