BrockTalk.qxd:EditorWelcome
8/2/12
11:59 AM
Page 6
the Brock talk
Brock Sheridan
Editor-in-Chief Florida Equine Publications
The Numbers Don’t Lie f one subscribes to the old adage that says numbers ford Manor Stakes (G3) winner Circle Unbroken to the don’t lie, then Florida-breds had notable success at list of Florida-bred graded stakes winners. In total, June North American thoroughbred race tracks during the featured 33 graded stakes around the continent of which four (12.1%) were won by those bred in Florida. months of June and July. July was even more impressive for Florida-breds. DurThat could be apparent to even the casual observer of such things as runners from the Sunshine State won two ing the month there were 23 Florida-bred stakes winners Grade 1 races in each month with Ron the Greek winning that amounted to 14.1% of all non-restricted and black-type the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on Jun. 16 and stakes in North America in July. Of the 57 graded stakes Jeranimo taking the Shoemaker Mile at Betfair Holly- during the month, 13 were won by Florida-breds which wood Park two weeks later. Then Musical Romance won amounts to a whopping 22.8%—more than double what the Princess Rooney Stakes at Calder Casino and Race would be expected by less than 10% of the population. There were ten Grade 1 stakes in July so the victories Course and Turbo Compressor took the United Nations by Musical Romance in the Princess Rooney and Turbo Stakes at Monmouth Park , both on July 7. A closer look at other stakes results and breeding sta- Compressor calculate to 20%—again more than double the expectation. tistics however, accentuates the point even further. The biggest day of the month for Florida-breds was by To determine what percentage of thoroughbred runners during those two months were bred in Florida, we far Jul. 7 when Musical Romance and Turbo Compressor first assume that the vast majority of thoroughbreds at the took the headlines with their Grade 1 tallies. But the day also featured graded stakes winners tracks today fall somewhere in the , it is Mucho Macho Man (Suburban two to 5-year-old age group. Using difficult to argue that Handicap [G2]), Emma’s Encore that assumption and combining it with the annual Florida Registered Florida-bred thoroughbreds (Victory Ride Stakes [G3]), Fort Loudon (Carry Back Stakes [G3]) Foal Crop as published by the continue to excel above Jockey Club Fact Book, we see that their counterparts foaled and Another Romance (Azalea Stakes [G3])—all bred in Florida. when those age groups were foaled, in other states. Yes it is without question that staFlorida babies made up 11.8% of the North American crop in 2007, 10.2% in 2008, 9.2% in tistics can be calculated, twisted and molded to say just 2009 and 7.9% in 2010 (second in numbers and percent- about anything the author, mathematician or marketer would like to convey. But these numbers are all very much ages to only Kentucky.) Although the vast majority of thoroughbreds racing straight forward. Because of overnight stakes that may today are ages two through four, we’ll stay conservative have been written late or perhaps restricted stakes were on the high side and average those four foal crop numbers not found, it is only fair to disclose that there may be slight to assume Florida-breds make up approximately 9.8% of variances in the above calculations, but it would be diffithe population at tracks today. The actual percentage of cult to manipulate them too much one way or the other Florida-breds currently racing is almost certainly lower, because of the simplicity of the calculations. Regardless, it is difficult to argue that Florida-bred but to make a point, we’ll stay conservative and keep the thoroughbreds continue to excel above their counterparts number artificially high. During the month of June, Florida-breds won 19 stakes foaled in other states. Not to say that Florida can compete races. Using Daily Racing Form as a source with an effort with Kentucky on volume as the Bluegrass State produces to delete all restricted and non-black type stakes, those 19 approximately 33% of the thoroughbreds in North Amerstakes winners made up nearly 14% percent of all stakes ica. But when it comes to the probability of a given Florida-bred becoming a stakes winner compared to those winners in North America during the month of June. Looking at graded stakes during the month of June, we foaled in other states—at least in June and July of this add Vagrancy Handicap (G2) winner CC’s Pal and Bash- year—the numbers don’t lie. ■
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6 THE FLORIDA HORSE • AUGUST 2012