Global production
Aquaculture
bounces back A worldwide survey of producers reveals the post-2020 recovery is under way, but there are also winners and losers BY ROBERT OUTRAM
T
HE Global Seafood Alliance (GSA) Conference ā noļæ½onally in Seaļæ½le this year, but actually online ā also saw the unveiling of the GSAās global aquaculture producļæ½on surveys and forecast, covering ļ¬nļ¬sh and shrimp. Both surveys were produced by the GSA in associaļæ½on with Rabobank, with addiļæ½onal data from the United Naļæ½ons Food and Agricultural Organisaļæ½on (FAO) and analysts Kontali. Producļæ½on growth esļæ½mate for 2020 and 2021, and forecasts for the coming year, were based on input from producers. The results were presented by Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Analyst, Seafood, with Rabobank. Shrimp shine in 2021 For the shrimp sector, it was a story of recovery from the slump in 2020, with further growth to come. Nikolik said: āFor Laļæ½n America as a whole, itās been a booming year for shrimp producļæ½on.ā Mexicoās producļæ½on of vannamei shrimp declined slightly in 2020 compared with the previous year, but esļæ½mates for 2021 suggest that, at just under 180,000 tonnes, the current yearās out will be 8% up year on year. Brazilās output is expected to be at least 65,000 tonnes or more according to the GOAL survey, with some esļæ½mates predicļæ½ng as much as 100,000 tonnes. Ecuador remains a strong performer in the ļ¬eld, with conļæ½nued year-on-year growth of 5.1% even during 2020 and expected growth of 10.2% to reach just
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under 800,000 tonnes. Indian producļæ½on contracted steeply by 12.5% in 2020. With 2021 output esļæ½mated at around 700,000 tonnes, it is expected to take unļæ½l 2023 to get back to the producļæ½on levels of 2019. Chinaās ļ¬gures are controversial, Nikolik said. Oļ¬cially, shrimp producļæ½on in China passed 2 million tonnes in 2018, with just under 2.2 million in 2019. Rabobankās alternaļæ½ve assessment, based on industry sources, suggests 2019 output was more like just over 500,000 tonnes, represenļæ½ng a slight fall compared with 2018. Applying industry expectaļæ½ons to oļ¬cial data, Rabobank suggests growth is resuming aļæ½er a fairly ļ¬at 2020, with 9.1% growth in 2021, or a total for the current year of more than 2,300 tonnes. Vietnam is expected to record 13.6% growth for 2021, to around 760,000 tonnes, although growth next year is only predicted to be 0.9% and Rabobank feels oļ¬cial ļ¬gures may be overstated. Indonesiaās ļ¬gures are also disputed. Rabobank feels the oļ¬cial ļ¬gures for 2019, of over 900,000 tonnes, are over-opļæ½misļæ½c and believes the real ļ¬gure, based on industry sources, could be more like 380,000 tonnes. Thailand, meanwhile, will see an esļæ½mated 7.8% in growth for 2021, taking the countryās producļæ½on to just over 400,000 tonnes, while smaller producers such as the Philippines and Malaysia appear to be preļæ½y ļ¬at in growth terms. In total, producļæ½on
This page from top: India and Ecuador: shrimp exports by volume and value, 2020; Shrimp; Expected shrimp producļæ½on growth by region ā CAGR = compound annual growth rate Opposite from top: Farmed carp, China; Global ļ¬nļ¬sh producļæ½on ā sources Rabobank, FAP, GSA; Global salmon producļæ½on by region
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09/12/2021 15:36:13
