F&C National Housing Market Update March 2021

Page 1

MARCH 2021

N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E


KEY STATS E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES

£743,000

£1,114,358

10.17%

£612

£36.4bn

13,342

LATEST DATA

QUARTERLY CHANGE

ANNUAL CHANGE

98,994

11.1%

40%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS

121,640

27.2%

6.8%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING

£24.3 bn

16.6%

6.8%

NEW HOME STARTS (QT)

31,900

131.5%

-9.2%

NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)

35,260

154.6%

0.1%

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


MARKET OVERVIEW I NE GYEI N AC TIO NS 2 0S1P8R I -N G TH A TR OTH AT WA Although the festive season is upon there is little seasonal have cheerbeen and ‘good will across to all’ the Spring beckons and pathways to endus,lockdown restrictions outlined evident theto political arena.a Brexit headlinesconfidence as all eyes is UK, the across roadmap ‘normality’ sharp continues contrast totoadominate year ago. the Consumer await theshoots final outcome. Whatever conclusion,Budget there are sure tocontinued be implications for for showing of recovery and thethe Chancellor’s provides support sterlingseeking and thetoeconomy. 2018 draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what those own theirAs own home we can expect in 2019? A CONFIDENCE BOOST

BALANCING THE BOOKS

Consumer confidence in the economy rose to an elevenmonth high in February, no doubt bolstered GLIMMERS OF SEASONAL CHEERby the impact of the swift vaccine rollout across the UK. GfK report Throughout 2018 sales acrossinthe housing that consumer views onvolumes the economy general andmarket their have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer personal financial situation both improved, as did their demand and levels of purchases. consumer confidence. However, willingness to low make major This bodes well for latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgage consumer spending as restrictions are lifted. Despite the approvals shrinking in October 4% higher a year while economy by were 9.9% over 2020 than (ONS), the ago, UK looks the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since set to avoid its first double dip recession since the 1970s. the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took place across the UK in October than in any month since July MARKET ACTIVITY 2017, while Rightmove dataCONTINUES shows properties in 2018 to date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of Although expected activity in the housing to marketingmany to being sold-subject-to-contract, one market day falter during the start of 2021, with the Stamp Duty deadline shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days too close to witnessed in benefit 2016. new buyers, the market continues to show resilience. Sales volumes in January were 24.1% higher rate in the summer, Despite the rise2020, in thewith UK an base than in January estimated 121,640 transactions mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that completed (seasonally adjusted); the highest January total at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest rate is lower since 2007 (HMRC). Although mortgage approvals were than the ratethan both and ten2020, years still ago,98,994 3.14% mortgages and 6.11% 3.7% lower in five December respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wages have risen over were approved, 50% higher than in January 2020. Gross the past year, positive news for household finances. lending was the highest monthly figure since March 2016 (Bank of England). Zoopla report buyer demand in the six SENSE SENSIBILITY weeks to AND mid-February was up 12.4% year on year, with Rightmove seeing a 45% increase in visitors to its site in the Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The first week of February and enquiries up 18%. A lack of new average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November, buyers to the market, new seller numbers were 21% lower the largest November fall since 2012 according to at the start of February, continues to exert pressure on Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated prices. The average of ahouse property the UKacross is nowthe throughout the year.price Annual priceingrowth over £250,000 (UK HPI, Halifax). UK in the year to September was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a

The Chancellor’s Budget offered a sober assessment of the legacy of thethe Covid-19 pandemic increase in Across UK prime markets,and thedespite averagethe price of property is downthere a fraction year ago. However, many borrowing were on fewaimmediate significant across tax changes. 2018until has the not end proved momentous. In the year to the The assets extension, of September of the furlough endwill of November the the average price expected of gold hastofallen by scheme support many, economy return 1%, the stock market (FTSE 100) by 6%, while S&P to itsover pre-pandemic level by mid-2022, six months earlierthe than Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite forecast in November. fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns. commentators report pent-up until demand The Many extension of the Stamp Dutyevidence Holiday of in England the for higher priced properties, with prospective vendors end of June is welcomed, as is a 0% SDLT levy on properties for more clarity they commit up towaiting £250,000 until the endbefore of September 2021.toAtheir new purchase. government-backed mortgage guarantee scheme is set to launch on 1 April across the UK. The scheme will be available A CRYSTAL BALL up to £600,000 and will support to those seeking to purchase purchasers who require a 95% mortgage. Unlike many schemes, Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with support will be available to all purchasers and not restricted a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK to first-time buyers or new build homes. and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average PRIME houseMARKETS prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility point to employment levels The continuing average price of a inprime across the earnings, UK has risen to rise 2019,property along with average while to £1.1 million, 10% year on year. Price performance in sthe inflation is up predicted to edge back to the government’ 2.0% prime market is may currently outpacing the general target. This well require a gradual rise inmarket, interestwith rates, growth of 8.5% the yearview to December. While HMRC report rate will rise to although theincurrent is that the base income from residential property tax receipts fell by 27% year just 1.5 – 1.75% by 2021. on year in 2020, 10.6% more liable sales took place priced Across the housing as per 2018,for many £1 million+. Homes overmarket, £1 million account 2.3% of all sales commentators expect the wider UK market to outperform recorded by the Land Registry to date in 2020, compared to London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price 1.8% in 2019. With the UK remaining a location of choice for growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In buyers from overseas, activity once travel restrictions are comparison, those commentating on the London market lifted is anticipated to be buoyant. anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over 10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be true.

year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index. Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit uncertainty.

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3


REGIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

£366,000 £491,086 +6.7% £247

£450,000 £613,033 +7.1% £316

£439,000 £587,628 +6.8% £295

£505,000 £673,630 +8.0% £329

£467,000 £611,143 +7.9% £285

£409,000 £531,419 +9.0% £280

£655,000 £903,687 +12.0% £423

4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

£734,000 £991,267 +8.1% £478

£873,000 £1,250,609 +12.8% £508

£1,570,000 £2,532,418 +10.1% £1,222


NATIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %

PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.

ENGLAND & WALES

12.5%

10%

7.5%

5%

2.5%

0% FEB 2020

MAR 2020

APR 2020

MAY 2020

JUN 2020

JUL 2020

AUG 2020

SEP 2020

OCT 2020

NOV 2020

DEC 2020

JAN 2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD

An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.

ENGLAND & WALES

£1,600

£1,200

£1150 £800

£704 £400

£526

£519

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

£612

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5


TRANSACTIONS A N D K EY P R I C E P O I N T S

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY

Chart shows a rolling 12 month change in transactions compared to the previous 12 month period. PLEASE NOTE: Due to the pandemic, Land Registry have a huge backlog of transactions to be registered. Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline. Housing market demand is strong, the first week in February versus 2020 saw Rightmove visits up 45%, with 18% more enquiries and the number of purchases agreed up by 7%.

All proper ty

ENGLAND & WALES

£1m+

10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% JAN 2020

FEB 2020

MAR 2020

APR 2020

MAY 2020

JUN 2020

JUL 2020

AUG 2020

SEP 2020

OCT 2020

NOV 2020

DEC 2020

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

£242,658 £743,000 £1,114,358

£217,815 £750,093 £1,189,001

£187,784 £613,038 £993,911

£229,078 £585,991 £819,192

£374,780 £948,991 £1,390,301

£247,569 £742,921 £1,102,020

6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL


NATIONAL MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T

ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION

Rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for all properties sold compared to the previous 12 month period.

ENGLAND & WALES

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0% FEB 2020

MAR 2020

APR 2020

MAY 2020

JUN 2020

JUL 2020

AUG 2020

SEP 2020

OCT 2020

NOV 2020

DEC 2020

JAN 2021

Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES

Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.

ENGLAND & WALES

£400

£300

£330 £285 £254

£243

£200

£211

£100

0 FLAT/APARTMENT

TERRACED

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7


AVAILABILITY A N D TI M E TO S E L L

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TO SELL

NATIONAL

Average number of days from when a property is first marketed on Rightmove to when the estate agent marks it as “sold subject to contract”.

100

83 75

62

62

64 67

71

76

88 73

67 61

65

62 53 50

50

49 52

57

25

0 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRILMAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 Source: Rightmove

PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO BUY PER AGENT

NATIONAL

Average stock per agent calculated by the average number of properties an agent has on Rightmove each day across the month.

50

40

30

20

10

0 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 Source: Rightmove

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Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 03-03-2021.

Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward. dataloft.co.uk