MAY 2021
G R E AT E R L O N D O N M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS G R E A TE R L O N D O N
£1,550,000
£2,508,438
6.36%
£1,180
£9.1bn
7,633
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
82,735
-11.3%
45.3%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
190,980
31.2%
102.4%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING
£35.6 bn
25.8%
54.6%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
29,980
-4.5%
27.1%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
44,030
27.6%
11.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON
MARKET OVERVIEW MAO R WDAERSD UVTIUNMGNF O S HA Brexit have dominated headlines over quarhas ter, bounced and whileback, the Only aand yearthe on budget from a full property market lockdown andthe thepast market latter fireworksdemand for theisreal estate market, the dealthe or market, no deal aquestion hittingprovided new highs.few Continued driving momentum across shortage of continues to linger. Rhetoric has been more measures positive inare recent all eyes supply underpinning price growth. Protective easingweeks; as thenow roadmap to are on the EU summit in mid-November. theunderway. uncer tainty, annual house price growth ‘normality’ progresses, with economicDespite recovery remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels remain muted. CONFIDENCE CLIMBS WATCHING AND WAITING Restrictions are lifting and the UK’s vaccine rollout is both on
track and successful. economic There wasproving positivehighly economic newsContinued in the Budget: eight support the government in the2010 March years of packages, economicannounced growth, 3.3bymillion new jobs since Budget, were more a welcome boost, supporting the economy with 800,000 forecast by 2023, and wage growth atas it reopens Consumer is at its highest level since its highestfully. level in nearly confidence a decade. Independent forecasts from the of Office Budget Responsibility the start 2008,forthe PwC index 34 points(OBR) higheralso than at the predict to fall UK backbusiness to the government’ target of start of inflation the pandemic. confidence ins the service 2% over the course of 2019. However, sales volumes and manufacturing sectors was at its strongest level in April remain low, down2013 9.6%(IHS across London the twelve since November Markit). Theinlatest forecasts expect months to June compared earlier. After the UK economy to return to to aitsyear pre-pandemic levela brief by the reprieve the six summer number mortgage summer over of 2022, monthsthe quicker thanofpreviously approvals the UK hasisalso slowed. anticipated.across Unemployment set to peak at 6.5%, considerably
lower than forecasts 11.9% rates House priceearlier growth across of much of (OBR). the UKInterest is slowing with remain low and although mortgage approvals dipped slightly annual prices across London currently lower than a year in April to their lowest level since in lastthe August, in August excess of ago. Annual house price growth year to (UK 82,700 loans were approved, over 20% higher than the long the HPI) was -0.2%, down from 3.2% a year earlier. Across term (5-year) average (Dataloft, Bank of England). prime market monthly annual price growth has remained positive. The extension of the stamp duty holiday and the introduction on April 1st of 95% government-backed mortgages were BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS welcomed by the property sector. Housebuilders and first-time buyers were the main real estate beneficiaries of the Autumn Budget. As the RECORD-BREAKING government aims to meet its ambitious 300,000 new homes per year target, a range initiatives Spring is traditionally theofbusiest timewere of theannounced. year for the Additional monies the Housing housing market andtotalling 2021 is £500 alreadymillion settingforrecords. In March, newrecorded homes, new Investment Fund to property deliver 650,000 more than 190,000 sales were and partnerships with exceeded Housing Associations, of the mortgage lending £35.6 billion,removal record highs revenue cap for local councils and a business-backed according to HMRC and Bank of England respectively. Demand guarantee scheme for34% SMEhigher builders are all in the pipeline. levels in March were year-on-year (Zoopla) and As too is large-scale infrastructure investment and moves to 23% of homes were sold ‘sale agreed’ within one week reinvigorate street, with of proposals to Surveyors allow (Rightmove).the Thehigh Royal Institute Chartered conversion of unused retail units to residential and changes to business rates relief for small businesses.
report the sales rate per surveyor in March was at its highest levelbesince the summer of 2014, the 2023, sales-to-stock extended until the end ofwith March with theratio valueatof its strongest in over 17 years. Momentum continued into April, the loan subject to a new regional cap. Unlike all other Rightmove faster the firstunchanged two regions reporting of England,properties the cap inselling London willinremain weeks than at any point in its history. Although valuation activity at £600,000. Based on an analysis of new build property is onsales the across rise, this is failing to keep pace with demand, resulting the Capital over the past year just under two-in strengthened price growth. thirds (64%) would have been available to prospective firsttime buyers. The SDLT relief introduced for first-time buyers inDIRECTION the 2017 Budget will also be extended to all those FUTURE who purchase a shared-ownership property. Those who nd its Annual price growthproperty across the UK 22 is at strongest haveproperty purchased a shared since November 2017sixwill alsowith be able claim the relief retrospectively. in over years, pricetogrowth in London currently 4.6%, compared to 1.8% a year ago (UKHPI). Nationwide report The government is also going to consult on reforms to average prices in the UK have risen 2.1% between March and lettings relief which looks set to impact on many so-called April, the largest month-on-month increase recorded since ‘accidental’ landlords. Non-resident buyers will face a 1% February 2004. Agents are reporting the strongest sentiment additional SDLT surcharge over and above all other costs. towards price growth between April and June since the summer Although this is yet another tax rise, it is less than the 3% of 2015 (RICS). marketsearlier are currently outperforming indicated by Premium the government this autumn. the general market; eight out of ten regions in England and Wales are seeing growth of over 10%.
THE VALUE OF PRIME
THE HMPRIME TreasuryMARKETS netted just over £3.6 billion in stamp duty receipts (SDLT) from London in the year to the end of Prime property growth London is currently 6.4%, March 2018,price up 6.6% on ainyear previously, despite a fall of with6.0% the threshold for a prime property purchase in excess of in sales volumes. Over one quarter (27%) of receipts £1 million across all sub-markets. During the last 12properties, months, just were attributed to the purchase of additional 3% with of sales in prime were £10 million, £585 millioncentral raisedLondon from the 3% over additional levy alone. compared to 7% the previous 12 months, many overseas Over half of allin residential receipts were with attributable to properties purchased for over £1 million, 35% to properties purchasers unable to transact. Across England, higher value homes for over £2than million. havepurchased been popular. More 8,300 homes sold for over £1 million during the first three months of 2021, the highest At just shy of £2.5 million, the average price for prime quarterly figure ever recorded. These buyers have benefitted market property across London is over twice that of the from a £15,000 saving, thanks to the stamp duty holiday (HMRC). UK's second most expensive region, the South East.
With first-time buyer numbers at an all-time high, rumours that the Help to Buy Equity scheme would be scrapped post April 2021 proved unfounded. Instead the scheme will PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£376,000 £376,000 £501,573 £501,573 +7.3% +7.3% £247 £247
£473,000 £473,000 £474,000 £641,792 £641,437 £641,792 +10.8% +10.9% +10.8% £319 £319 £319
£525,000 £525,000 £525,000 £693,912 £693,912 £693,912 +10.3% +10.3% +11.3% £335 £335 £335
£481,000 £481,000 £630,186 £630,186 +10.2% +10.2% £291 £291
£419,000 £419,000 £546,274 £546,274 +10.8% +10.8% £285 £285
£686,000 £686,000 £938,080 £938,080 +15.3% +15.3% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM LONDON PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II GREATER NATIONAL
£460,000 £460,000 £460,000 £610,643 £610,643 £610,643 +11.0% +11.1% +10.3% £299 £299 £299
£750,000 £750,000 £1,007,650 £1,007,650 +9.5% +10.0% £483 £483
£905,000 £904,000 £904,000 £1,302,081 £1,301,890 £1,301,890 +17.2% +11.1% +17.2% £517 £517 £501
£1,550,000 £1,550,000 £2,508,438 £2,508,438 +6.4% +6.4% £1,180 £1,180
TOP 5% G R E A TE R L O N D O N P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£8,400,000 £12,604,624 –45% £3,261
£1,990,000 £2,634,397 +14% £1,233
£7,980,000 £11,697,490 +12% £2,425
£1,640,000 £2,504,369 +20% £894
£1,050,000 £1,212,519 +21% £984
£2,170,000 £3,000,535 +23% £1,408
PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 5
TOP 5% G R E A TE R L O N D O N P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
GREATER LONDON
15%
12.5%
10%
7.5% 5%
2.5%
0% APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
GREATER LONDON
£1,600
£1497 £1,200
£1272
£1190
£1180
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY
£964
£800
£400
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON
MAINSTREAM G R E A TE R L O N D O N M A I N S T R EA M M A R K ET
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong; the HMRC report sales in March 2021 were the highest monthly figure ever recorded.
Transactions
GREATER LONDON
Average sales price
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% MAR 2020
APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
GREATER LONDON
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£800
£600
£641 £564
£518
£566
£586
£400
£200
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I GREATER LONDON I 7
KEY STATS G R E A TE R L O N D O N
£531,465 £1,550,000 £2,508,438
£440,747 £1,173,331 £1,910,616
£589,629 £1,673,362 £2,715,627
£600,016 £1,500,340 £2,317,198
£929,243 £2,995,833 £5,135,734
£622,937 £1,786,281 £2,922,709
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
dataloft.co.uk
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 04-05-2021.
Please note: the London residential property market, particularly the more central parts have been disproportionately affected by the Covid pandemic. Transactions in prime central London are lower, with fewer high value sales. There are still outstanding transactions which have not yet appeared on Land Registry.