Demography, Demography, mobility and energy consumptionconsumption- an analysis on Ethiopia and Venezuela
traditional means of transport, head loading, walking and animal back.12 Other key factor is that mobility (Motorized) is almost restricted to the urban areas. So the effect of age group in travel pattern is not fully meaningful since income (measured in GDP raise for instance) as such relevancy and because according to the forecasts there will be almost no great shifts in the age structure of the population in the medium term (see the forecast chapter). So this situation is in deep contrast with the already mentioned study of Bastian Chlond, thus more than half the population (55%) is bellow 19 years old, which is one year above the legal age to drive. There is still a positive correlation between flow of traffic and population growth, but mainly because the current population growth as been driving economic growth and an increase in GDP, and GDP per Capita. 3.5
Economy and GDP evolution
Ethiopia is still, and will remain in the medium term, a largely rural country; it is hardly surprising that agriculture is the main economic activity. In the graph bellow we can see the contribution each sector is making to the GDP in the recent years, right now Industry is contributing to the GDP at a greater pace13 then Agriculture, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the medium term. GDP Growth
GDP by Sectors (%)
% of GDP
80% 60%
39
40
40.3
39.6
13.6
13
13.4
16.5
47.4
47
46.3
43.9
40% 20% 0% 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2009/2010 Years Target Agriculture
Industry
Services
Graph 22 – GDP by sectors
Growth (%)
100%
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005
2006 2007 2009/2010 Year Target
Graph 23 – GDP growth
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED)
Like the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, but at an even bigger rate, Ethiopia is experiencing a very high economic growth. This trend is to be maintained in the short term. The financial 12
Mobility on Ethiopian Roads, Ethiopian Roads Authority
13
Ethiopia: Building on Progress: A Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), Annual Progress Report 2006/07 Transport Planning and Performance Assessment
10