MARKET SNAPSHOT
Dairy
Grain & Feed
MILK PRICE FORECAST ($/KGMS) 2018-19
FONTERRA 2018-19
AGRIHQ 2018-19
7.00
6.60
AS OF 24/05/2018
AS OF 05/07/2018
Last week
Prior week
Last year
Canterbury (NZ$/t)
6.0 Mar 18 AgriHQ Spot Fonterra forecast
May 18 Jul 18 AgriHQ Seasonal
What are the AgriHQ Milk Prices? The AgriHQ Seasonal milk price is calculated using GDT results and NZX Dairy Futures to give a full season price. The AgriHQ Spot milk price is an indicative price based solely on the prices from the most recent GDT event. To try this using your own figures go to www.agrihq.co.nz/toolbox
WMP GDT PRICES AND NZX FUTURES
6.70
405
402
335
NI mutton (20kg)
5.10
5.10
4.10
398
394
342
SI lamb (17kg)
7.80
7.75
6.65
Feed Barley
398
393
352
SI mutton (20kg)
5.30
5.25
4.15
221
Export markets (NZ$/kg) 8.94
8.97
8.16
284
283
UK CKT lamb leg
Maize Grain
424
424
410
PKE
283
281
220
* Domestic grain prices are grower bids delivered to the nearest store or mill. PKE and fertiliser prices are ex-store. Australian prices are landed in Auckland.
INTERNATIONAL Last week
Prior week
Last year
Wheat - Nearest
273
260
236
Corn - Nearest
199
201
203
CBOT futures (NZ$/t)
APW Wheat
444
444
367
ASW Wheat
460
458
362
Feed Wheat
327
327
278
2500
Feed Barley
401
401
315
PKE (US$/t)
Jun 18 Sep 18 NZX WMP Futures
South Island 1 7kg lamb
8.0 7.5
3000 2000 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 C2 Fonterra WMP
North Island 17kg lamb
8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5
Ex-Malaysia
115
112
7.0
NZ venison 60kg stag
6006.5
$/kg
3500
5006.0
5.5
400
5.0
300
4.5
OctOct
88
DecDec
Prior week
vs 4 weeks ago
WMP
2960
2930
3205
SMP
1960
1945
AMF
6000
Butter
5345
Last week
Prior week
Last year
Last week
Prior week
Last year
2085
Urea
483
483
477
Coarse xbred ind.
3.29
3.41
3.75
6000
6200
Super
302
302
309
Nth Isl 37m
3.60
3.60
3.80
5400
5440
DAP
702
Sth Isl 35m
4.55
4.55
3.90
750
750
3000 Oct
Latest price
Nov
Dec
Jan
4 weeks ago
Sharemarket Briefing THE NZX 50 came off the boil last week after reaching multi record highs the previous week. However, turnover was light as the first week of the school holidays began but global markets started the week on an upbeat note, following better than expected jobs data out of the United States and looked ahead to what is expected to be another strong corporate earnings season. Yet, markets turned to the downside after the Trump administration proposed 10% tariffs on another US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Investors have been rattled by the recent escalation in trade relations, however a strong corporate earnings could outweigh the negative sentiment. Overall, it is expected to be another impressive reporting season, with markets expecting revenue growth of 8.8% and 20% earnings growth for the S&P 500. That would make for the second strongest quarter for earnings since 2010 and the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth of at least 20% per annum. All 11 sectors are forecast to see an increase in earnings from a year earlier with energy, materials, telecommunications and technology expected to post the strongest growth rates. Market commentary provided by Craigs Investment Partners
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX
8985
S&P/NZX 10 INDEX
8721
$/kg
250 150 Jul 14
NZ venison 60kg stag
4.5
600
c/k kg (net)
350
NZ$/t
US$/t
3200
Coarse xbred wool indicator
5.5
CANTERBURY FEED PRICES 450
16803
This yr
(NZ$/kg)
3400
S&P/FW PRIMARY SECTOR EQUITY
Last yr
AugAug
NZ average (NZ$/t)
WMP FUTURES - VS FOUR WEEKS AGO
Sep
JunJun
WOOL
* price as at close of business on Thursday
Aug
AprApr
FERTILISER
Last price*
2800
FebFeb
5‐yr ave
NZX DAIRY FUTURES (US$/T) Nearby contract
7.85
Australia (NZ$/t)
4000
Last year
7.85
c/kkg (net)
5.5 Jan 18
Last week Prior week
NI lamb (17kg)
Feed Wheat
Waikato (NZ$/t)
6.5
Slaughter price (NZ$/kg)
Milling Wheat
PKE
7.0 $/kgMS
SHEEP MEAT
DOMESTIC
MILK PRICE COMPARISON
US$/t
Sheep
$/kg
36
Jul 15 Feed barley
Jul 16
Jul 17 PKE spot
3.5
400 300
2.5
Oct Jul
Dec Sep 5‐yr ave
Feb Nov
Apr Jan Last yr
Jun Mar
Aug May
Jul
This yr
Dollar Watch
Top 10 by Market Cap Company
Close
YTD High
YTD Low
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Ltd
14.97
15.50
11.92
The a2 Milk Company Limited Auckland International Airport Limited Meridian Energy Limited Spark New Zealand Limited Ryman Healthcare Limited Fletcher Building Limited Mercury NZ Limited (NS) Contact Energy Limited Air New Zealand Limited (NS)
11.36 6.78 3.15 3.81 12.26 6.96 3.31 5.84 3.18
14.62 6.99 3.20 3.90 12.50 7.96 3.45 5.96 3.43
7.66 6.11 2.75 3.28 10.27 5.74 3.08 5.15 2.86
Listed Agri Shares
500
5pm, close of market, Thursday
Company
Close
YTD High
YTD Low
The a2 Milk Company Limited
11.360
14.620
7.660
Comvita Limited
5.950
9.210
5.600
Delegat Group Limited
8.650
8.900
7.510
Foley Family Wines Limited
1.480
1.610
1.400
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund (NS)
5.320
6.660
5.000
Livestock Improvement Corporation Ltd (NS)
2.750
3.000
2.250
New Zealand King Salmon Investments Ltd
2.580
2.680
1.840
PGG Wrightson Limited
0.670
0.720
0.560
Sanford Limited (NS)
7.750
8.500
7.350
Scales Corporation Limited
4.650
5.000
4.350
Seeka Limited
6.450
7.010
5.800
Synlait Milk Limited (NS)
11.130
11.650
6.260 3.100
T&G Global Limited
3.100
3.300
Tegel Group Holdings Limited
1.160
1.240
0.810
S&P/NZX Primary Sector Equity
16803
17332
14417
S&P/NZX 50 Index
8985
9084
8059
S&P/NZX 10 Index
8721
8848
7640
A STRONGER United This Prior Last NZD vs States dollar, loss of an week week year interest-rate advantage USD 0.6784 0.6794 0.7317 and a slowing New EUR 0.5813 0.5811 0.6413 Zealand economy should AUD 0.9155 0.9192 0.9457 push the kiwi dollar quite a bit lower over the next GBP 0.5144 0.5141 0.5652 year, Westpac Bank Correct as of 9am last Friday strategist Imre Speizer says. He’s targeting a US$0.64 rate at this time next year. That would be nearly 6% lower than its current level and 11% lower than it was on March 30. The US Federal Reserve has been increasing its core interest rate this year and there seems to be consensus there around possibly two more rate rises this year, Speizer said. US Treasury bond yields on maturities out for the next nine or so years are already higher than NZ’s and the gap should extend further. Westpac expects the RBNZ to start hiking the OCR late next year and by then the core Fed rate could be a full 100 basis points higher. The kiwi has lifted off a low below US0.67 but Speizer expects it back below that level by the end of September. The US dollar should gain against all comers while the kiwi continues to ease against NZ’s major trading currencies. Speizer thinks the dollar will fall below A$0.90 this year and to 0.88 by mid next year on a stronger Aussie economy. He’s calling the kiwi below €0.57 by year-end and below £0.50 by mid next year as central banks in those economies look to tighten monetary policy. Alan Williams