MILK ANALYSIS
Defra price on course to top 32p Average aligned vs. non-aligned prices (ppl) Note: Includes assessment of aligned scaleback.
35
Average aligned price
34
Average non-aligned price
33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 Nov
Jul
Sept
Mar
May
Jan 21
Nov
Jul
Sept
Mar
price increases for aligned pools. The gap between aligned and non-aligned prices is now more
May
Nov
Jan 20
Jul
Sept
May
Mar
25 Jan 19
T
he latest official Defra milk price for August was 31.24ppl at 4.09% fat and 3.3% protein, and 30.5p when corrected for constituents back to a standard 4% fat and 3.3% protein standard litre. The latest estimated nonaligned price for October has just topped 30p. During the year, the Defra price has averaged 1.3p over the nonaligned average, which means that by October or November, the Defra price should be more than 32p. The gap between aligned and non-aligned prices is, however, rising again, thanks to very strong milk
The latest official Defra milk price for August was 30.5p for a standard litre.
than 2ppl for the first time since March, having dropped to a differential of 1.3p in June.
EU prices soar as butter nudges £4,000 and cream £1.90 JEU and UK commodity prices surged in the week of Dairy Farmer going to press, skyrocketing to levels last seen back in 2014 for some commodities. In the first week of October, butter was at £3,450, at the start of the second week it was £3,600, by the mid-week
78 DF Nov p78 79 Milk Analysis KJ MB.indd 2
of that week it was £3,700 and by the end some traders would not even sell for the equivalent of £3,950 or even £4,000.
Cream Cream in the UK was anything between the mid£1.80/kg into the £1.90s, but was still trailing the
EU, which was at £2.15/kg to £2.20 equivalent. Converting the EU and UK prices into a farmgate AMPE price puts returns at about 33p after transport and a processor margin. The butter and SMP futures are also riding high, and resulting in farmgate equivalent prices of about 33p.
Cheddar has also started to rise on the back of the market positivity, having been stuck at £3,000 for months. It is now at £3,100/tonne for mild, with many sellers saying they would not sell for anything less than £3,250/t on the back of a very strong curd price, and strong Edam and Gouda prices.
NOVEMBER 2021 15/10/2021 09:59
