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ccording to Investopedia, game theory is defined as “a model of optimality taking into consideration not only benefits less costs, but also the interaction between participants”. Whilst it’s an important part of being successful in business, it can also be vital in making the right FPL decisions. Accepting that variance is a huge part of the game is a good start. There is enough variance involved with playing FPL that anything can happen in any given week – that’s what keeps us hooked, after all. No matter how well constructed we think our squad might be, there is always the chance that come the end of the gameweek, our hopes and expectations will feel like a distant memory compared to the reality. Of course, this is part of the appeal of FPL – the unpredictability – but it can be hugely frustrating too. Ultimately, as much as we wish it were different, there is a high probability that one of our players will under-perform, no matter how much research we do or how confident we feel when finalising our selections. Whilst there are obviously both positive and negative effects of variance, there are certainly ways to lessen the negative effects significantly. Avoiding ownership of multiple players from one team is the most effective way to do it. By diversifying our line-up, we lower the risk of negative variance as much as possible. An example of putting this into practice can be taken from Gameweek 28, which was shortened due to teams playing in the FA Cup. With only four Premier League fixtures that weekend, there were a large number of FPL managers who rushed to transfer in multiple Liverpool players (indeed, most of these managers took a points hit to do so). And what happened? Firmino didn’t play because of an injury, Coutinho was subbed off in the 61st minute and the likes of Mane and Lallana failed to make an impact. The projected points total for these Liverpool players did not materialize and was, in fact, far wide of the mark. Leaving ourselves fully exposed to FPL variance by depending on players from the same team is best avoided. In playing FPL, we task ourselves with 38 gameweeks of problem solving and decision making. Naturally, these tasks can be accomplished using a mix of strategies. Using optimality and game theory is one such strategy. Optimality, in a nutshell, is the practice of calculating the best ratio of benefits to costs from the available options at our disposal. In FPL, of course, nobody would benefit if every fantasy squad was performing at an optimal level. That means it is necessary that some teams will prosper whilst others will suffer.
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