SSPEED Center 2016 Annual The EFDC-SS model was run for various scenarios of spills from facilities located in different parts of the channel and for spills that might occur not only prior to peak surge, but also at peak surge and after the peak surge had receded. The selected tank locations that were modeled were consistent with the tank locations exhibiting the highest risk for failure using the Rice University data on tank failure probabilities that are shown in Figure 19. Failure Probability of tanks in HSC under 25 ft. Storm Surge). Preliminary results indicate that for all scenarios, extensive and widespread pollution of the Houston Ship Channel would occur within a very short period of time after the spill [see Figure 22. Tank Failure at Facility 2 during Hurricane Ike at Peak Surge) and Figure 21. Tank Failure at Facility 2 during Hurricane Ike + 30% wind Speed Hitting at Point 7(Ike30p7)]. In addition, it was found that all spills from any of the tanks throughout the HSC are able to reach Galveston Bay within less than 1 week (see illustrative Figure 22. Illustration of the Relative Time for Spilled Material to reach Galveston Bay for Spills occurring before the peak (red line), at the peak (blue line), and after the peak (yellow line)).
Figure 22. Tank Failure at Facility 2 during Hurricane Ike at Peak Surge
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