the next forty years. However, it currently looks like emissions levels are more in line with the 8.5 scenario, so now researchers in the CERES project are aiming to assess the likely impact of this on fish and shellfish resources. “We have data on physical carbon emissions, and they are used in models to project changes in sea surface temperature, sea bottom temperature, water currents, salinity, oxygen, and of course pH – the kinds of things that are going to affect fish and shellfish,” outlines Professor Peck. There is still uncertainty over how changes in these factors, in particular pH or ‘ocean acidification’, affect specific fish populations, so in the early stages of the project researchers did a literature review to assess the current state of knowledge. “We looked at more than 500 studies conducted on aquaculture and fisheries targets. When you start looking at studies on specific species, or even more general studies – you can see that temperature has been studied quite intensively,” says Professor Peck. There have been far fewer studies, however, on the interaction between temperature and pH, and their combined impact on fish populations. CERES researchers have conducted some experiments and also investigated other areas to fill other gaps in knowledge. “Our project has done some work, for example, on shellfish, looking at the effect of temperature on growth in shellfish well fed on phytoplankton, compared to those that are poorly fed. We’ve also looked at the effects of temperature and salinity on the survival and growth of tuna larvae – we’ve conducted some very strategic experiments to gain some of the answers we need to make specific models work better,” outlines Professor Peck. Along with this research into the direct impact of climate change, the CERES project is also looking into the possible indirect effects, such as harmful algal blooms, disease, or jellyfish blooms. “Disease is relatively easy to model, because diseases respond to temperature. There may be reductions in some
Land-based trout farm in Turkey. Photo: Ferit Rad
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diseases due to warmer winter sea temperatures in the Mediterranean for example,” says Professor Peck. “Algal blooms are very difficult to model, they are linked to wind patterns in certain areas and specific oceanographic features.” It is also very difficult to predict where a jellyfish bloom may occur, an event which can cause serious damage to fish farms. Large amounts of data have been gathered recently on where and when outbreaks occur, from which Professor Peck and his colleagues can investigate the physical factors behind these events and whether they can be accurately forecast. “We are looking at whether we can develop earlywarning tools to help farmers, so that they can take preventative measures. One option would be to put up a bubble curtain, to keep the jellyfish out,” he outlines. This research holds important
a deeper understanding of future changes, companies will be well placed to adapt to new circumstances. “We’d like to provide advice to fisheries companies targeting specific species, to say whether a particular species will continue to thrive in a certain area, or if they might want to consider changing their focus as fish populations shift,” says Professor Peck. A good example would be sea bass; while they were not historically found in large numbers in the North Sea, the population has increased ten-fold in around ten years. “These types of changes in distribution are largely due to temperatures becoming more tolerable, and it becoming warm enough in northern areas for traditionally southern species to survive to survive. So you can have sea bass farms where you couldn’t before,” outlines Professor Peck. “Cod is at the southern end of its distribution in
Most of our work so far has been around trying to understand the physical changes that are going to occur as a result of climate change, and to project those at a scale that’s relevant for the fisheries and aquaculture industries. implications for the future of the fisheries and aquaculture industries, so Professor Peck is keen to encourage companies to participate in the project’s work right from the early stages. “The idea is to go to industry with these tools and conduct participatory science. We don’t want to just talk to fisheries and aquaculture companies at the end of the programme, but rather to involve them at the beginning, to tell them about our plans, what the models can do and what kinds of estimates they can provide, and hear what is most interesting and useful to them” he stresses.
New circumstances This is central to the project’s overall agenda, with Professor Peck and his colleagues in CERES aiming to provide effective advice to fisheries and aquaculture companies. With
Fisheries trawl in Greek waters. Photo: Dimitrios Damalas
the Irish Sea and the North Sea, and it will likely continue to become less productive in these areas in the future.” The debate around climate change is often framed around longer-term challenges, yet aquaculture and fisheries companies by nature tend to prioritise more immediate issues as they seek to boost profits, while a degree of scepticism remains about climate change research. By working closely with industry, Professor Peck aims to heighten awareness among companies of how climate change may affect their operations and reinforce the continued importance of research in this area. “As scientists, I believe we need to work with industry. When you can link with industry and show how you can provide effective advice, I think it strengthens the credibility of science,” he says.
Mussel longline farming in the Limfjorden, Denmark. Photo: Camille Saurel
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