Food Sustainability with Global Warming

WORDS MARISA CUTILLAS

The words ‘global warming’ may conjure up different images in one’s mind, ranging from sweltering hot summers to devastating floods, but one aspect we often ignore (much to our own peril) is its effect on food production. In 2019, the United Nations issued a report indicating that the world’s land and water resources were being exploited at unprecedented rates – a fact which, combined with climate change, was putting untold pressure on our future food supplies. The report, published by over 100 experts from 52 countries, showed the immediacy of the problem.

Currently, half a billion people live in areas that are fast transforming into desert habitats and soil loss is taking place at a rate of between 10 and 100 times faster than soil formation. Extreme weather (resulting from rising temperatures) will destabilise our food systems further, with droughts, floods, wildfires, and other disasters adding insult to injury.

Presently, around 10 per cent of the world’s population does not have enough food to eat and, as NASA research scientist Cynthia Rosenzweig warned, food famines could occur in several areas of the globe at once. The UN report recommends several largescale measures – including more responsible use of land, the reduction of food waste, and a big curtailment in meat consumption. One is reminded of an unforgettable statement by John Robbins in his book, The Food Revolution: “In California today, you may save more water by not eating a pound of beef than you would by not showering for six entire months.” ›

A recent study published in the journal One Earth (Kummu, 2021) has found that one-third of the world’s food production will be at risk by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at their prevailing rate. This phenomenon would cause a drastic reduction in current amounts of ‘safe climatic space’ – conditions in which rainfall and temperature are within specific bounds. The most affected areas would be South and Southeast Asia as well as the SudanoSahelian zone in Africa. However, if human beings lower their greenhouse emission levels enough to meet Paris and Glasgow Agreement goals, then temperatures would rise between 1.5ºC and 2ºC, affecting a much lower percentage (five to eight per cent) of the world’s food production.

Climate change will also affect large rivers of the tropics, many of which have spacious floodplains and deltas – as found by Hamilton, SK. These bodies of waters “are important in the delivery of nutrients and sediments to marine environments, in methane emissions to the atmosphere, and in providing ecosystem services associated with their high biological productivity.” There will additionally be what scientists call “an increasing asynchrony of the growing season and water availability.” The latter will, evidently, affect food production and biodiversity, altering food quantity, quality, and prices.

In addition to emphasising the need to respect the Paris and Glasgow Agreements, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations has made specific recommendations aimed at protecting the environment and its inhabitants. The increased resilience of livelihoods is one of them. By devising social protection strategies, addressing gender-related disparities, and creating disaster risk strategies, food security and nutrition within the context of climate change adaptation can be achieved.

Building resilient agricultural systems is also vital. This process involves making adaptive changes in crop management, growing crops in previously unsuitable places, developing drought-resistant plant varieties, improving water management and technologies (employing techniques such as water harvesting), making more use of rainwater harvesting and capture, and improving drainage to avoid soil loss.

Managing genetic resources is equally vital. “Crops, livestock, forest trees and aquatic organisms that can survive and produce in future climates will be essential in future production

systems,” state the U.N. officials. Livestock farmers will need to revise their breeding programme goals and work with new breeds/ species which are more suitable to climatic conditions.

Governments will need to invest in resilient agricultural development so as to alleviate poverty and reduce vulnerability in rural areas and smallholder farms. Families working in agriculture should be encouraged to diversify and earn non-agricultural sources of income if necessary.

Some areas, the study authors noted, will be positively affected by rising temperatures – including the Nordic regions, whose capacity to produce food would increase. However, this small step forward would in no way compensate for the vast loss occurring in other parts of the world. Some of the biggest threats posed by climate change include risks to crop production, water scarcity, and livestock farming. The scientists noted that if temperatures were to rise by 1.5ºC to 2ºC, the size of boreal forests in the U.S., Europe, and Russia would dwindle from 18M km2 to around 15.5M km2. However, if emissions were higher, only 7.7M km2 of forest land would remain. This problem would be exacerbated by additional factors – including population growth, land degradation, and other environmental challenges related to food production.

Finally, risk assessment is key. “Knowing which agricultural systems and livelihood activities may be more sensitive to a changing climate will help practitioners choose more resilient crops, livestock, aquaculture and forestry species and adopt more diversified livelihoods,” says the UN report. If farmers are informed of changing amounts of rainfall and changing areas of precipitation, for instance, they can allocate their resources appropriately and consider diversification or exit strategies. ›

Vegan bacon

Institutions will need to be set up to support necessary transitions (including the establishment of rural credit and insurance programmes). These entities can enhance bonds between smallholder farmers and local, regional, and national markets and they can establish policies that will lower financial risks and facilitate long-term investment. They should further focus their work on helping assess and manage risks, creating diversification and livelihood strategies, and identifying the biggest vulnerabilities to climate change. Finally, they should create sound global market and trade policies to stabilise prices and supplies and provide alternative food options for negatively affected areas.

Food scarcity is an ever-increasing reality owing to global warming. Issues such as soil erosion, water scarcity, and climatic disasters are threatening important industries such as agriculture and transforming once-fertile lands into deserts. In order to counter this phenomenon, largescale change is required. Governments must adhere to the Paris and Glasgow Agreements but also take steps to identify risks and shifts, encourage diversification, promote necessary changes in agriculture, boost trade, and protect the most vulnerable. e

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