Critical Changes Affecting Investors Since CDP2
• Long-term temperature records
• If atmospheric concentration of
derived from ice sheets, glaciers, lake
CO2 were stabilized at today’s
sediments, corals, tree rings, and
concentrations of about 380 ppm
historical documents show that
(i.e., if CO2 emissions were substantially
1995-2004 was the warmest decade
reduced today) global average
worldwide in the last 1-2,000 years.
temperatures would increase by another 0.4 to 0.6o C by 2100.
9 of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred in the last decade. • Global precipitation over land increased
• If atmospheric concentration of CO2 increase to about 550 ppm (a low
about 2% over the last century with
emissions growth scenario), global
considerable variability by region
average surface temperature would increase about 1.3o C by 2100.
(Northern Hemisphere precipitation increased by about 5-10% during this time while West Africa and other areas experienced decreases). • Mountain glaciers are melting worldwide, the Greenland ice sheet is melting, the extent and thickness of Arctic sea-ice is declining, and lakes and rivers freeze later in the fall and melt earlier in the spring. The growing season has lengthened by about 1-4 days per decade in the last 40 years in Northern hemisphere, especially at high latitudes. • Climate model simulations show that the observed temperature increase over the last century cannot be explained by
increase to about 800 ppm (a high emissions growth scenario), global average surface temperature would increase about 3.5o C by 2100. • Thermal expansion of ocean water would increase global mean sea level 10 cm (for 380 ppm of CO2) to 30 cm (for 800 ppm of CO2) by 2100. Ice sheet and glacier melting could double these totals. • Global average rainfall, variability of rainfall, and heavy rainfall events are projected to increase. • Heat waves in Europe, North America and other regions are likely to become
and changes in solar output) alone; the
more intense, more frequent, and longer
effect of human activities must be
lasting.
included for model output to match the
Climate change in the 21st century will
observational record.
result in significant societal and
fish and insect species are changing.
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, ‘An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security’, October 2003. A report commissioned by the US Defense Department
• If atmospheric concentration of CO2
natural forcing (i.e., volcanic eruptions
• The ranges of migrating birds and some
“This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern.”
environmental impacts. • Higher temperatures, more frequent
Tropical regions are losing animal
heavy rainfall events, and changes in
species, especially amphibians, to
seasonal and spatial patterns of
warming and drying.
precipitation are likely to result in
Human influences will continue to
increases in both flooding and droughts,
change Earth’s climate throughout the 21st century. Analyses using
making water management more difficult. • Heat stress and expansion of disease
NCAR’s Community Climate System
ranges will stress human populations,
Model-3 (CCSM-3) show that changes
especially in the developing world where
in atmospheric composition are likely
adaptive capability is limited.
to result in further increases in global average temperature and sea level and
• Flooding of coastal areas could produce
continued decline in snow cover, land
environmental refugees in some areas.
ice and sea ice extent. We are likely
Inundation of coastal groundwater by
to experience a faster rate of climate change in the 21st century than seen
saline ocean water is likely to cause
in the last 10,000 years.
agricultural problems in some regions. • Enhanced forest growth early in the 21st century is likely to be followed by decline
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