multiplied by the total jobs in the category to find the number of recreation jobs in the region. Tourism jobs were taken from 2008 EDCO report, then both hotels and recreation were subtracted to avoid double counting. After this the number was multiplied by a river factor of 16%. Wage numbers were found in the ECDD regional analyst report. The number for recreation was multiplied by 5/12 because recreation jobs generally last for 5 months per year. Scenarios Modeling Each of the individual industry analyses produced a set of relationships between industry activities and the value provided to the Central Oregon economy as a result of those activities. The analysis also revealed drivers of value (number of visitors, access to the river, etc) for each of these industries. Through additional research and analysis, those drivers were all linked back to in-stream and diverted flow rates for the Upper, Middle, and Lower sections of the Deschutes river. This enabled an overarching economic model to be developed which predicted a “river contribution” to the Central Oregon economy as a function of the flow rates of the Deschutes River. River flow rates were then adjusted within the model to reflect anticipated flow rates for the various scenarios explored. While this model is ultimately an approximation based on the relationships that exist today, and while it does have some limitations (for example, it does not account for long term additive effects such as the potential for an increase in rafting revenue from increased visitors due to word-of-mouth marketing effects if the river is managed to improve the experience of rafting participants), it does offer a perspective on the overall effect of the Deschutes River on the Central Oregon economy.
Appendix III: Models and Results Models are available upon request and included as Excel documents in the material submitted to the School of Natural Resources and Environment on April 19, 2010.
Bibliography 1. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. 2. Bend Bulletin. (2010, September 30). Poverty rates rising in Central Oregon. The Bend Bulletin . 3. Central Oregon Association of Realtors. (2011). Sales of Single Family Homes. Bend, OR: Central Oregon Association of Realtors. 4. Costanza, R. (1997). The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature , 253-260. 5. Daily, G. C. (2000 ). Value of Nature, and Nature of Value. Science , 395-396. 6. Daily, G., Polaski, S., Goldstein, J., Kareiva, P., Mooney, H., Pejchar, L., et al. (2009). Ecosystem services in decision making: time to deliver. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment , 21–28. 7. Deschutes County Assessor's Office. (2011). Property Information. Retrieved 2011, from DIAL: http://www.deschutes.org/index.cfm?objectid=1C6CA4A4-BDBD-57C1-91A76F3469866079 8. Deschutes County. (2002). Title 23 - Deschutes County Comprehensive Plan. Bend, OR: Deschutes County. 9. EDCO. (2011). Projected Job Growth in Oregon through 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2011, from Economic Development for Central Oregon: http://www.edcoinfo.com/regionalfacts/employment/job-growth-projections/default.aspx 10. Eklund, J. L. (2003). Average August Natural Flow. Salem: Water Resources Department.
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