STUDY 2021
number of dispensed beverage SKUs to stay the same in 2021, marking no change from 2020. Seventy-nine percent expect no change to the category’s linear square footage, up 10 points from a year ago. Lack of foot traffic and safety precautions that shut down the self-service areas in convenience stores are among the issues expected to have the biggest impact on dispensed beverages going into 2021. However, some retailers have identified unexpected bright spots.
Category Forecast: Beer & Malt Beverages
Retailers' expectations for the packaged beverages category this year are lower than they were headed into 2020, but still slightly ahead of 2019. Fifty-five percent of operators expect their average dollar sales and unit volume per store to increase this year, while 30 percent expect sales to stay the same and just 4 percent expect sales to decline. Large operators are more bullish on this category than small operators. More than two-thirds of large operators (67 percent) expect their packaged beverage sales to increase in 2021, compared to just over half of small operators (51 percent). Overall, most retailers (60 percent) expect to maintain their current level of packaged beverage SKUs, while 36 percent plan to expand their number of SKUs. Large operators are more likely to report plans to expand SKUs than small operators (46 percent vs. 32 percent, respectively). In terms of linear square footage, 76 percent of all retailers anticipate no change. Struggles in the dispensed beverages category have been offset somewhat by a boost in packaged beverages, according to some retailers, due to their continuous availability and the safety concerns around fountain drinks. But whether this continues long term remains to be seen. "Packaged beverage sales are artificially inflated due to pandemic take-home demand," said one retailer. Some report that while multipacks saw a boost over the summer, consumers have begun to return to grocery stores for bulk buys, while singles sales have held steady.
Decrease
Don't sell
4% Total Retailers
Don't know
28%
28%
Stay the same
Increase Average $ Sales Expected Increase = 9% Average $ Sales Expected Decrease = 6% Average Unit Volume Expected Increase = 8% Average Unit Volume Expected Decrease = 7%
"The work-from-home crowd has reduced our coffee sales, but kids have picked up some of the activity in frozen sales being out of school," noted one retailer.
PACKAGED BEVERAGES
9%
32%
Category Forecast: Candy
6%
4%
Don't know
Decrease
2% Total Retailers
Don't sell
55%
32%
Stay the same
Increase Average $ Sales Expected Increase = 13% Average $ Sales Expected Decrease = 8% Average Unit Volume Expected Increase = 12% Average Unit Volume Expected Decrease = 9%
Always a category that sees a lot of new product innovation, retailers cite healthier products, performance-based energy drinks and flavor innovation as top trends for 2021.
BEER & MALT BEVERAGES Although a number of c-store operators reported anecdotally that beer and malt beverage sales rose during the pandemic as consumers sought replacements for away-from-home alcohol consumption, this category is another where retailers are split on their predictions for 2021. Among those respondents who sell beer and malt beverages in their stores (32 percent do not), roughly four in 10 predict that their average dollar sales and unit volume per store will increase this year, while 41 percent expect sales to stay the same and 13 percent project a decrease. Large operators are more likely to expect sales growth (60 percent) than small operators (32 percent). In terms of category SKUs, the majority of all retailers (63 percent) expect to maintain the same number of SKUs as last year, a 12-point increase from a year ago. The percentage of retailers planning to add SKUs also dropped by 9 points this year to 38 percent. Large operators, though, are more open to adding SKUs than small operators (50 percent vs. 32 percent, respectively). Linear square footage J ANUARY
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Convenience Store News
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